Above 300 million
Market Model 99.0% 82.0%
Above 304 million
Market Model 99.0% 78.0%
Topic tracker · Financials
Spotify KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 4 so far (2 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Spotify KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 6, 2026
Live markets
Above 802 million
Market Model 21.0% 9.0%
Above 792 million
Market Model 99.0% 46.5%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spotify monthly active users in Q2 | August 4, 2026 | — | Report → |
| Spotify headcount in Q2 | August 4, 2026 | — | Report → |
