Above 4%
Market Model 54.0% 2.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 41.0% 1.0%
Topic tracker · Financials
Target KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (1 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Target KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 18, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target transactions change in Q2 | August 19, 2026 | 53.5% vs 1.0% | Report → |
