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Trump Monthly
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (0 live, 5 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Trump Monthly markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 25, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Trump say in July? | August 1, 2026 | 1.8% vs 5.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this month? | July 1, 2026 | 43.2% vs 53.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this month? | June 1, 2026 | 54.5% vs 61.0% | Report → |
| Will Trump say "Bad Bunny" this month? | March 1, 2026 | 8.5% vs 8.5% | Report → |
| What will Trump say in February? | March 1, 2026 | 99.5% vs 99.5% | Report → |
