Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup First Half Spread
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup First Half Spread markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated June 26, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal vs Iraq: First Half Spread | July 10, 2026 | 20.9% vs 30.0% | Report → |
| Ecuador vs Germany: First Half Spread | July 9, 2026 | 0.6% vs 3.0% | Report → |
