Short Answer

The market considers it highly likely that Bitcoin will reach $77,190.50 between 11:30AM EST and 11:45AM EST on November 2.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Since last update (about an hour ago): Model-led probability for target price increased by +11.8pp; edge compressed by +3.9pp.
  • Market probability for target also rose significantly, up +7.9pp, nearing 100%.
  • Confidence score remained stable at 5.0, with no shift since the prior report.
  • Target price $77,190.50 is favored by risk-positive U.S. ISM Manufacturing data.
  • Bitcoin's $76.3K-$77.2K support zone appears to hold despite recent bearish catalysts.

Current Context

Bitcoin traded near $77.9K amid technical resistance and Binance breach. As of November 2, BTC was trading between $77.8K and $77.97K, having declined 7.3% in October and marking a fourth consecutive negative week [1][2][3]. Immediate technical support was clustered near $76.3K-$76.4K, with resistance around $80.3K and then $82.5K-$84.3K [1][2][3]. The primary fundamental risk stemmed from the Binance security breach, involving roughly $6.3B stolen funds, with Binance reporting $4.65B in withdrawals versus $1.01B in deposits during phased reopening [1][4]. The FBI attributed the theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, though approximately 95% of stolen funds had reportedly been replaced [1][4]. Institutional flows and derivatives signals indicated caution; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a $643M daily outflow on Friday, BTC futures open interest remained broadly flat despite higher volume, liquidations increased, and BTC puts were more expensive than calls [1][3]. Upcoming catalysts after November 2 included the U.S. midterm elections and JOLTS on November 3, U.S. ISM Services and euro-area inflation on November 4, the Bank of England decision on November 5, and U.S. October payrolls plus a roughly $2.1B Deribit BTC options expiry on November 6 [4][5][6]. November 2 also included U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Apple/Palantir earnings [4].
Experts offered mixed views, prediction markets favored consolidation. Michaël van de Poppe stated the correction was in its end stage, with U.S. midterms likely priced in [7]. Galaxy's Alex Thorn highlighted BTC's close above its 50-week moving average for a seventh consecutive week despite the hack [7]. Polymarket's November 2 daily BTC market, sampled at 16:44 UTC, showed the $76K-$78K range with a 98% implied probability, and $78K-$80K at 2% [8]. This suggested a session centered near the high-$77Ks, rather than a material move above $78K [8]. For the specific 11:30-11:45 AM ET 15-minute contract, an up/down market had a leading outcome near 50.5% [9]. Robinhood's 11:15-11:30 AM ET market showed $77,280.35-or-above at 40% [10]. These did not directly confirm BTC would finish at or above the $77,190.50 target [9][10]. A separate November 2 15-minute BTC market resolved Down, with Binance BTC/USDT one-second candles producing a final average of $77,854.18 versus a $77,960.14 price-to-beat, illustrating the narrow and noisy nature of these markets [11].
Target of $77,190.50 requires moderate dip, not high-confidence call. The $77,190.50 target for the 11:30-11:45 AM ET period was approximately $600-$800 below the prevailing $77.8K-$78.0K spot area [1][2][3][4]. Achieving a touch or close at/under this target required a modest intraday dip rather than a significant breakdown [1][2][3][4]. Negative ETF flows, Binance-related risk, weak momentum, and nearby support suggested potential downside [1][2][3][4]. However, the daily prediction market's strong $76K-$78K pricing and analysts' stabilization thesis argued against treating the target as a high-confidence directional call [1][2][3][4][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Forecast: How low can BTC go?fxstreet.com
  3. 3What's moving Bitcoin this week?fxstreet.com
  4. 4Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin holds above $77K ahead of US midterm electionscryptobriefing.com
  6. 6Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Bulls See Light At The End Of The Correction As Michaël Van de Poppe Says Midterm Elections Are 'Priced In'finance.yahoo.com
  8. 8Bitcoin price on November 2?polymarket.com
  9. 923:43:04 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ETfuture.news
  10. 1015 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11BTC Up or Down - 15 Min — 2026-11-02 11:30 UTC | Unhedged.ggunhedged.gg

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market's specific YES/NO resolution conditions are not provided in the text. However, the market runs from November 2, 11:30 AM EST to 11:45 AM EST, at which point it expires. The settlement price will be determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the final minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

On November 2, 2026, BTC 15-minute prediction markets were active around the $77,800 price area, with some live windows showing "UP" leading at 59% or priced at 50.2¢ [1][2]. Market-implied probabilities for separate BTC 15-minute contracts on Public.com were 48% and 13% on November 2, 2026 [3][4]. Commentary cautions that these short-horizon binary markets behave like coin flips, as fees, book-crossing costs, TWAP edge cases, and algorithmic traders can negate small directional advantages [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin 15-Minute Up or Down Chart — Live Polymarket Dataupdowncharts.com
  2. 2Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Minute Up or Down: Higher or Lower?pariflow.com
  3. 3BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5The 15-Minute Bitcoin "Up/Down" Candle Is a Coin Flip With a Rake | AInvestainvest.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $77,190.5065
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $77,190.50—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,190.5095
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
65Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

Target Price: $77,190.50Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What are the immediate price risks for Bitcoin stemming from the Nov. 2 U.S. ISM Manufacturing data release and major tech earnings?

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov. 2)55.5 (consensus 54.6) [1][2][3]
ISM Prices (Nov. 2)75.2 (forecast 77.2) [1][2][3]
Bitcoin Target Price$77,190.50 [4]
The Nov. 2 U.S. ISM Manufacturing data indicated mixed results, favoring a risk-positive outlook for Bitcoin. The data, released at 10:00 a.m. ET, showed the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 55.5, exceeding the 54.6 forecast, signaling an upside growth surprise [1][2][3]. Conversely, the ISM Prices component was 75.2, staying below the 77.2 forecast and indicating a softer inflation trend [1][2][3]. During the 11:30–11:45 a.m. ET Bitcoin target resolution window, this specific outcome was generally interpreted as risk-positive, potentially supporting Bitcoin above $77,190.50 rather than generating a bearish impulse [1][2][3][4].
Bitcoin’s position and market reaction minimized immediate downside risk from the data release. While strong manufacturing activity can enhance risk appetite, strong activity coupled with elevated prices might also elevate Treasury yields and the dollar, potentially creating immediate downside pressure on a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin [4][5][2]. However, the actual data, characterized by the PMI beating expectations and Prices staying below forecast, fostered a modest upside or risk-on interpretation for the market [1][2][3][4]. Bitcoin had entered Nov. 2 near its prediction-market target area, with the Nov. 1 close around $78,239 [6] or approximately $78,324 [7]. The $77,190.50 target was about 1.3%–1.5% below the preceding close, suggesting that even a modest macro risk-off impulse could have been significant [6][7]. Major tech earnings, including Apple and Palantir, were scheduled after the Nov. 2 close and thus could not directly impact the 11:30–11:45 a.m. ET resolution window [1][2][3][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1United States ISM Manufacturing PMImyfxbook.com
  2. 2Calendar | Forex Factoryforexfactory.com
  3. 3ISM Manufacturing PMI: release dates, results and historyhelious.io
  4. 4Bitcoin hits $77,000 wall as the Fed gets trapped between weak jobs and $90 oil - Investing Waves Investing Wavesinvestingwaves.com
  5. 5September 2026 ISM ® Manufacturing PMI ® Reportismworld.org
  6. 6Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  7. 7Bitcoin (BTC) Price History and Historical Datacoincheckup.com
  8. 8Week Ahead: Apple Earnings and Marquee Jobs Data in Focus | Week Ahead: Apple Earnings and Marquee Jobs Data in Focus | Schwab Networkschwabnetwork.com
  9. 9Earnings this week, Nov 2–6: Apple, Palantir and AMD | MoverTapemovertape.com

6. What do recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows and Binance withdrawal data signal about institutional selling pressure?

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflow (Oct. 30)Approximately $643.2-$643.3 million [1][2]
Binance Net Outflows (first 9.5 hrs)Roughly $3.64 billion [3][4][5]
Binance Outflows Percentage of AssetsAbout 2.1% of $171 billion assets [3][4][5]
Recent market events suggest a bearish outlook for institutional risk appetite. On Friday, October 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net outflows of approximately $643.2-$643.3 million, marking the largest daily outflow since June 25 [1][2]. This included $233.7 million from BlackRock IBIT and $201.0 million from Fidelity FBTC [1][2]. Despite this, the one-day withdrawal represented less than 1% of the reported ETF assets of about $98.14 billion, suggesting a de-risking trend rather than outright institutional capitulation [1][4][5][2]. Concurrently, Binance recorded net outflows of roughly $3.64 billion in the first 9.5 hours after withdrawals reopened, indicating an immediate liquidity and confidence shock [3][4][5]. This outflow, resulting from $4.65 billion in withdrawals against $1.01 billion in deposits, represented about 2.1% of Binance's $171 billion assets [3][4][5]. While both the ETF outflows and Binance withdrawals point to a bearish outlook for near-term institutional and large-holder risk appetite, these events do not definitively establish direct institutional liquidation of Bitcoin, as ETF holders' underlying Bitcoin is held with regulated custodians and lacks direct exposure to Binance [3][4].
Broader market indicators signal overall downside pressure and defensive positioning. Analysis of market microstructure on November 2 pointed more towards churn and defensive positioning among participants than a fresh institutional short build [3]. The combination of heavy ETF outflows, substantial Binance withdrawals, a negative Coinbase premium, and elevated defensive options skew collectively signaled downside pressure for Bitcoin [1][3][6][7]. The available evidence supports a bearish-to-volatile bias for Bitcoin, rather than providing a high-confidence directional call for a specific price target or definitively establishing the exact CF Benchmarks RTI outcome for any related contract [1][3][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
  3. 3Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  4. 4Spot bitcoin ETFs see largest daily outflows in four months following record Binance hacktheblock.co
  5. 5IBIT and FBTC lead $643M bitcoin ETF exodus after Binance hackcryptopolitan.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 715 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

7. How does bearish sentiment from the BTC derivatives market compare to optimistic outlooks from technical analysts like Michaël van de Poppe?

BTC Perpetual Funding Rate+0.0100% per 8 hours [1]
BTC Options Open Interest (Calls)57.87% of $28.72 billion [2]
BTC Probability above $76,00096%-98% [3][4]
Short-term bearish sentiment does not negate longer-term Bitcoin optimism. While BTC derivatives traders showed near-term caution and sought downside protection around November 2, 2026, this position was not inconsistent with Michaël van de Poppe's more optimistic multi-week forecast for Bitcoin. Bearish hedging and low conviction over short timeframes do not preclude a potential recovery toward $80,000 and eventually $100,000 [5][6][7][3].
BTC derivatives market signals presented a mixed near-term outlook. During this period, evidence from the BTC derivatives market was indeed mixed. BTC perpetual funding rates were positive at approximately +0.0100% per 8 hours on one platform, yet other reports indicated a funding flip, with puts becoming more expensive than calls and a five-point negative skew [1][5][8]. Futures open interest remained largely flat, suggesting existing exposure was being hedged rather than new aggressive directional bets being placed [9]. Despite some bearish signals, options positioning maintained an upside bias; calls constituted 57.87% of the $28.72 billion in BTC options open interest and 52.97% of the 24-hour volume [2]. For the November 6 expiry, calls outnumbered puts by roughly 3-to-1 [9]. Prediction markets, which are inherently short-term and less directional, showed the 11:30-11:45 AM ET BTC 15-minute market near 51% Up with around $13,000 in liquidity [3][10]. Broader markets priced BTC above $78,000 at approximately 36%-43%, above $80,000 at roughly 2%, and above $76,000 at 96%-98% [3][4].
Michaël van de Poppe maintained a conditionally bullish long-term perspective. In contrast to the nuanced derivatives picture, Michaël van de Poppe expressed a conditionally bullish outlook, anticipating the correction would soon end and projecting a subsequent advance toward $100,000 [6][11][7]. He identified $78,800 and the range of $79,800-$80,000 as crucial resistance or confirmation levels. Despite his generally positive forecast, he acknowledged the possibility of another liquidity sweep and stated his intention to buy if prices descended below $75,000 [6].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Bitcoin 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  2. 2[Bitcoin options daily] Open interest reaches $28.72 billion; $58,000 put leads volume | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price prediction markets: live odds | PredictRipspredictrips.com
  4. 4Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?polymarket.com
  5. 5Bitcoin's 'volatility curve' has a midterm bump: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com
  6. 6Van de Poppe calls $80,000 the confirmation zone for Bitcoin's reversal • Happy Coin Newshappycoin.news
  7. 7Bitcoin Holds Its Ground After Binance Hack As Michaël van de Poppe Says Midterms Are 'Already Priced In'stocktwits.com
  8. 8Bitcoin's Bearish Signal: Understanding the Negative Funding Rate (2026)ppmhc.org
  9. 9Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
  10. 1015 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11Michaël van de Poppe sees Bitcoin heading towards $100.000 | The Latest Crypto Newsthelatestcryptonews.com

8. What specific on-chain metrics and technical levels define the key support zone for Bitcoin between $76.3K and $77.2K?

Bitcoin Key Support Zone$76.3K-$77.2K [1][2][3][4]
1-3 Month Holder Realized Price$76.0K-$76.5K [1][2]
Trader On-chain Realized Price$77,140 [1][2]
Bitcoin's key support zone spans $76.3K to $77.2K, defined by combined factors. This critical range is established by specific on-chain cost-basis levels and technical chart levels [1][2][3][4]. Key on-chain metrics underpinning this zone include the 1–3-month holder realized price, which currently sits around $76.0K–$76.5K, and the trader on-chain realized price at $77,140 [1][2]. Technically, the $76.3K level represents a recent low or reaction area, while $77.2K is identified as an explicit technical breakdown trigger [3][4]. Maintaining prices above these levels is crucial, as it helps keep recent buyers profitable and may encourage them to defend the support; conversely, a sustained break below risks triggering further selling pressure [1][2].
The broader market shows fragility, indicating a defensive on-chain posture. Bitcoin is currently trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $79.24K and its 200-day EMA near $81.15K, suggesting a bearish or fragile overall market trend [4][3][5]. Consequently, the $76.3K–$77.2K range functions more as a short-term decision zone than a signal for a trend reversal [4][3][5]. Despite a positive exchange netflow of 14,437-BTC outflow, which could reduce immediate sell supply, other on-chain indicators like falling active addresses and a Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of 0.9933 reflect that aggregate coin spending is occurring at a slight loss [3]. These combined signals indicate a cautious on-chain stance rather than strong bullish momentum [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin Tests $77,100 Support as Short-Term Trend Hits Inflection Point: Analysisen.bloomingbit.io
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Struggles at $77.3K as $75K Support Tested · TheCryptoDeskthecryptodesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin at $78,000 Is Hiding a Thin Market: Only 16 of 173 Markets Are Above Water — 5 Signals That Decide the Break — icrypto24icrypto24.com
  4. 4Bitcoin: Mich Flags $75K Sweep Below $77.2K | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Holds $76.3K Lows Into US Midterms Week – VCP Crypto Newsvcpcryptonews.com

9. Beyond initial theft recovery, what are the lingering financial stability risks for Binance that could trigger a market downturn?

Net Outflows$3.64B (2.1% of stated assets) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Unresolved TheftAbout 5% of affected assets [2][8][9][10]
Bitcoin ETF Losses$643M (over $1.3B leveraged positions liquidated) [1][5][11][7]
Binance faces financial stability risks beyond initial theft recovery. The market downturn risk is more plausibly a confidence or liquidity shock than confirmed bankruptcy, despite reported net outflows of $3.64 billion, equal to 2.1% of its stated assets, and withdrawals said to be stabilizing [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. However, the $6.3 billion theft is not fully economically resolved, as approximately 5% of affected assets, largely less-liquid tokens, may take longer to source, while stolen funds were reportedly still being laundered [2][8][9][10]. Loss absorption has consumed or temporarily reallocated important financial buffers, including parts of SAFU, its Futures insurance fund, and corporate treasury, which could reduce resilience if replenishment is delayed [9][10].
Confidence damage and potential systemic issues threaten market stability. Significant confidence damage can depress Bitcoin prices, as analysts expect market makers, institutions, and other investors to reduce allocations [1][5][11][7]. Following the incident, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million, with over $1.3 billion of leveraged positions liquidated [1][5][11][7]. The clearest systemic downside is a forced-liquidity event if withdrawals become disorderly or customer assets are found short, potentially triggering broader crypto selling [6][7][4]. For the Nov. 2 11:30–11:45 a.m. EST BTC target market, the highest-impact downside catalysts include a renewed withdrawal spike, any delay in restoring remaining networks or assets, evidence that the 5% shortfall is difficult to source, new laundering or recovery failures, or a reserve or liquidity disclosure that prompts market makers to pull quotes [1][5][7]. Secondary risks also include reserve-composition and concentration risk, increased regulatory scrutiny, and operational restrictions, with prior probes potentially raising compliance, custody, and market-access costs [5][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Binance says exit rush slowing down as users weigh security risk | livelive.euronext.com
  2. 2Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows as withdrawals resumecnbc.com
  3. 3Binance hack: Users withdraw $3.6bn after record crypto heistbbc.com
  4. 4Binance records $6 billion outflows after starting withdrawals, less then 4% of total holdingscoindesk.com
  5. 5Binance seeks to shore up confidence after record $6.3 billion heist By Reutersinvesting.com
  6. 6Binance's $6.3 billion hack: What we know and what comes nextcnbc.com
  7. 7Binance says exit rush slowing down as users weigh security risk By Reutersau.investing.com
  8. 8Crypto ‘scammers on overdrive’ as Binance customers pull billions from accounts after $6.3bn hack – business livetheguardian.com
  9. 9Recovery Update #3: 90% of Stolen Assets Replenished...binance.com
  10. 10Security Incident Update #2 (2026-10-30)binance.com
  11. 11Binance's $6.3 Billion Hack Is a Gut Check for Crypto-Market Security - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
  12. 12Half-Year 2026: Exchanges and Institutionspublic.bnbstatic.com
  13. 13A new US probe is testing Binance again — and the outcome will reshape cryptocryptoslate.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Binance security breach served as the dominant immediate bearish catalyst [1]. Approximately $6.3 billion was stolen, and customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion after withdrawals reopened [1][2][3]. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $643 million outflow on the prior Friday [1]. Binance stated it replaced or covered roughly 95% of the stolen funds, which helped limit broader market reaction [1][2][3].
Upcoming macro catalysts include the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, November 3 JOLTS, November 4 euro-area inflation and U.S. ISM Services, November 5 Bank of England decision, and November 6 U.S. October payrolls [1][4][5][6][7]. Political control may influence crypto legislation, while stronger labor or inflation data could increase expectations for restrictive monetary policy and pressure BTC [1][4][5][6]. The near-term technical and market framing was mixed; BTC had recovered from a six-week low and hovered near $77.8K [1][6][7][8]. Analysts identified $79,200 and then $80,300–$80,900 as recovery hurdles, with $76,500–$77,000 as downside support [1][6][7][8]. A move to $77,190.50 during a 15-minute interval would be consistent with a retest of the cited support zone, not a confirmed bullish breakout [1][6][7][8]. Bitcoin was approximately $77,750–$78,000 during the U.S. morning on November 2, 2026, with CoinDesk reporting about $77,900 at 6:30 a.m. EST [2][3][9][8].
Deribit data cited roughly 26,966 BTC of options expiring Friday, November 6, worth about $2.1 billion [7][2]. Calls reportedly outnumbered puts roughly three to one, with major call strikes at $82,000 and $85,000 [7]. Separately, CoinDesk stated near-term BTC options trading was put-heavy and puts remained more expensive than calls after the Binance hack, indicating simultaneous upside positioning and downside hedging [7][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  3. 3Dollar pulls back ahead of U.S. midterms; bitcoin stabilizes after crypto heistcnbc.com
  4. 4Crypto week ahead: 4 events Bitcoin traders should watchcrypto.news
  5. 5Bitcoin Faces 3 Big Tests During the First Week of Novemberbeincrypto.com
  6. 6What's moving Bitcoin this week?fxstreet.com
  7. 7Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
  8. 8Bitcoin recovers 1% above $78.5K after last week's sell-offmoneycontrol.com
  9. 9Current price of Bitcoin for Nov. 2, 2026 | Fortunefortune.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021130-30: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021115-15: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021100-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021045-45: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021030-30: YES (Nov 02, 2026)