Short Answer

Bitcoin reaching $77,205.04 between 3:45 AM EDT and 4:00 AM EDT on October 31 is treated as a genuine toss-up by the market (50%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Bitcoin may hold near $77,205.04, with strong order book support reported near $77,060.
  • Asian session risk-off sentiment and ETF outflows could cap upward price momentum.

Current Context

BTC traded near $77,205 on October 31, impacted by outflows and a Binance security incident. Bitcoin was near $77,160–$77,205 as of October 31, between 01:34–05:38 ET/UTC reporting windows, down approximately 1.7%–1.8% over 24 hours [1][2][3]. The primary near-term driver was the reported $6.3 billion Binance hack [1][3]. Binance planned phased withdrawal restoration around Sunday, November 1, and proof-of-reserves reporting by Monday, November 2; these were target dates, not guaranteed deadlines [1][3]. The immediate market backdrop was fragile, with U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $643 million of net outflows on October 30 [2][3]. Bitcoin's October performance registered roughly 7.8% below its October 1 open in one market report, and falling perpetual open interest suggested position closures [2][3]. Recent catalysts included the October 28 Federal Reserve decision, October 29 macroeconomic releases and ECB decision, and the October 30 $10.9 billion–$11.7 billion BTC options expiry [2][3][4][5][6].
Technical levels and market probabilities indicated near-term uncertainty. Technical analysis on October 31 placed support around $75,000–$77,000 or approximately $76,270, with resistance near $77,941–$78,081 [1][7]. One analysis suggested a close above $78,081 could target $78,636, while a close below $77,060 might target $76,411 [7]. Polymarket's October 31 BTC closing-price market, sampled at 07:46 UTC, implied an 87% probability for a $76,000–$78,000 final Binance noon-ET close, 10% for $78,000–$80,000, and 1% for $74,000–$76,000, with reported volume at $128,000 [8]. A nearby Robinhood contract for 3:30–3:45 AM EDT with a $77,292.08 threshold showed 27 cents for Yes, and another aggregator showed a nearby 3:30–3:45 AM up/down market at approximately 50.5% leading [9][10]. These short-window contracts resolve from CF Benchmarks BRTI averages, not necessarily spot exchange quotes, comparing 60 one-second RTI observations immediately before the window endpoints [9][11][12].
Intraday volatility and headline risk made a precise outcome for the target uncertain. The market was close to the $77,205.04 target, but intraday volatility, ongoing Binance headline risk, thin overnight liquidity, and nearby support and resistance levels contributed to an effectively uncertain outcome [1][2][8][7][3][9][11][12]. Available nearby 15-minute market evidence did not clearly indicate a bearish probability for the 3:45-4:00 AM EDT window, while broader same-day prediction markets favored a $76,000–$78,000 close [8][9][10]. Expert framing of the market remained conditional rather than offering precise 15-minute forecasts [7][13]. Short-term traders focused on the $76,270–$76,411 support and $77,941–$78,081 resistance levels [7]. A broader October outlook cited $78,000–$95,000 as a range, with $87,500 identified as a breakout level, and sustained weakness below $80,000 invalidating that bullish setup [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Bitcoin holds above $77,000 as Binance hack recovery takes shape By Investing.cominvesting.com
  2. 2First Print 31 Oct: bitcoin near $77,000 on October's last daycryptowatchdesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price today: ETFs lose $643M after Binance hack – Coindarocoindaro.com
  4. 4Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Holds $79,200 Before the Fed, Coinbase Earnings and a $10.9B Expiry: Which Way Next?finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Fed meeting 28 October: What it could mean for Bitcoin - Crypto.com Internationalcrypto.com
  7. 7BTC 1H Analysis: Holds Below $78,081 Resistance as Traders Wait | TradingGain Newstradinggain.io
  8. 8Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
  9. 9October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:30–3:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 1023:57:51 Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ETfuture.news
  11. 11BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  12. 12BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  13. 13Bitcoin’s October outlook hinges on $82K support, analysts saycrypto.news

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market tracks the price of BTC over a 15-minute period, from October 31, 3:45 AM EDT to 4:00 AM EDT. The specific conditions for a "YES" or "NO" resolution are not explicitly stated in the provided content, as the "To Beat" target value is missing. For settlement, the market's final value is determined by averaging 60 prices from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), collected during the last minute before the 4:00 AM EDT expiration.

Market Discussion

As of October 31, 2026, BTC 15-minute prediction markets were actively listed across various platforms, showing live prices around $77,308-$77,438 and specific contract targets like $77,133.60 and $77,144.76, though the exact $77,205.04 target for that date was not reliably matched in the indexed results [1][2][3][4][5]. These prediction contracts typically resolve by comparing the final 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI with the preceding 15-minute reference average, and no substantiated trader discussion was surfaced [6][7][1][4][3][2][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin 15-Minute Up or Down Chart — Live Polymarket Dataupdowncharts.com
  2. 215 min Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 515 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  6. 6BTC 15 min · $77,206.82 target - Awaiting Resolution | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7BTC 15 min · $77,203.78 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 6% of the price to slippage.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
82Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,205.04—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,205.04—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,205.0495
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 50.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 50.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 3.0c slippage (~6% of a 50.5c contract)

Target Price: $77,205.04Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. What specific developments from Binance regarding its $6.3B security incident could trigger a sharp price movement for BTC during the 3:45-4:00 AM EDT window?

Reported stablecoin conversionApproximately $325 million into $285 million of ether [1][2][3]
BTC support level$77,000 [4][5][2][6][7]
Binance reserves for lossesOver $6.34 billion [8][1][9][3]
Negative Binance developments could trigger bearish BTC price movements. A sharp price movement for BTC during the 3:45-4:00 AM EDT window could be triggered by real-time Binance communications, withdrawal-status changes, blockchain freezes or recoveries, or verified movement of stolen funds [8][4][5][9][10][2][11]. Clear bearish catalysts include evidence of stolen assets being moved, laundered, or converted, such as the reported conversion of approximately $325 million in stablecoins into about $285 million of ether, which would imply containment failure and could ignite selling fears [1][2][3]. A high-impact bearish trigger would be a Binance update indicating a broader incident, multiple breach points, the use of EIP-7702, or an unresolved sequence [8][10][3]. Delays in withdrawal restoration, renewed suspensions, or evidence of private-key leakage or materially larger losses would also be significantly bearish [8][4][10][11][3]. A fresh negative Binance headline could push BTC below the $77,000 support level [4][5][2][6][7].
Positive Binance updates could trigger bullish BTC price movements. Conversely, recovery or containment headlines represent the clearest bullish catalysts [8][1][9][3]. These include freezing or recovering additional assets beyond the approximately $3 billion already frozen, confirmation that Binance will fully cover losses with over $6.34 billion reserved, and reassurance regarding the safety of user funds and deposits [8][1][9][3]. An announced restart of withdrawals, especially after rigorous testing and in phases, would likely alleviate panic and support BTC prices [8][4][10][11]. While Binance had been targeting withdrawal restoration around Sunday or within roughly 34–40 hours and not specifically the 3:45–4:00 AM EDT window, positive news during this time could lead to a short-covering rebound towards the $77,205.04 target [8][4][10][11][4][5][2][6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1What to know about the $6.3B Binance hack | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Bitcoin holds above $77,000 as Binance hack recovery takes shape By Investing.cominvesting.com
  3. 3BTC news: Bitcoin stolen from Binance tops Tesla’s holdings and is over twice El Salvador’s reservecoindesk.com
  4. 4Binance hack updates: Crypto firm finds multiple 'points of breach' in $6.3bn heist - BBC Newsbbc.com
  5. 5Bitcoin, ether price: Binance hack rattles crypto marketscnbc.com
  6. 6Bitcoin slides below $77,000 as record $6.3B Binance hack rattles crypto | Business Newshindustantimes.com
  7. 7Bitcoin holds up after Binance’s $6.3 billion hackcnbc.com
  8. 8Security Incident Update | Binance Supportbinance.com
  9. 9Binance hack: $6.3 billion impacted in record crypto theftcnbc.com
  10. 10Binance discovers multiple breach points in $6.3 billion attack, eyes Sunday reopeningcoindesk.com
  11. 11Bitcoin Traded at $77,152 as Binance Targeted Phased Withdrawals | TokenPosttokenpost.com

6. What does exchange order book data from Coinbase and Binance reveal about the strength of the reported technical support near $77,060 and resistance at $77,941?

Combined bids near $77,060Approximately $31.5M at $77,083, $26.3M at $77,160, and $18.3M at $77,006 [1]
Overall market bid imbalance+21.7% with $194.0M bids vs $124.8M asks within 2% [1][2]
Largest ask buckets near marketAround $77,238 ($33.0M), $77,315 ($24.8M), and $77,392 ($13.3M) [1]
Exchange data suggests strong, distributed technical support below the market. At 05:55 UTC on October 31, 2026, order book data indicated substantial and distributed liquidity positioned below the market, supporting the area around $77,060, rather than establishing a singular wall at that precise price [1]. Combined bids included approximately $31.5 million at $77,083, $26.3 million at $77,160, and $18.3 million at $77,006 [1]. The BTC spot mid price was approximately $77,199. Bids within 2% of this mid across 21 venues totaled $194.0 million, compared to $124.8 million in asks, demonstrating a +21.7% bid imbalance [1][2]. Specifically, Binance showed $47.2 million of bids versus $15.4 million of asks within 2%, while Coinbase displayed $26.8 million in bids against $20.4 million in asks [1][2]. An earlier Binance snapshot also indicated a bid advantage [3], and a composite BTCUSD display showed the market positioned above $77,060 during the morning period [4].
The reported resistance near $77,941 was not confirmed. Available snapshots did not directly corroborate this resistance level [1]. The largest nearby ask buckets observed at 05:55 UTC were around $77,238 ($33.0 million), $77,315 ($24.8 million), and $77,392 ($13.3 million) [1]. A subsequent report from Binance identified approximately $6.74 million in asks at $77,370, alongside net near-end selling of about $3.27 million [5]. It is crucial to acknowledge that order-book liquidity provides fragile evidence for technical support or resistance, as displayed limit orders can be rapidly cancelled or withdrawn, and snapshots do not differentiate between persistent and fleeting orders [6]. Furthermore, the settlement for prediction markets utilizes CF Benchmarks' BRTI/RTI averaging, not direct exchange last prices, meaning the provided market context serves only as indirect evidence for the resolution window [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Spot Order Book Heatmap: Bid and Ask Walls Across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX | ByKarantelibykaranteli.com
  2. 2BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE and AVAX spot order book heatmap across six exchangesfuelmaps.io
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTC) Snapshot Shows Binance Spot Book With $7.46M More Bids | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  4. 4BTCUSD Order Books and Market Depth | ChartExchangechartexchange.com
  5. 5Binance spot BTC has a sell order of about...chaincatcher.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Liquidity & Orderbook Heatmap | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  7. 7BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:30–3:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

7. How has the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRTI) historically deviated from the spot price on major exchanges like Coinbase during volatile, early-morning US trading hours?

Temporary BRTI deviation after rapid Coinbase movesabove 0.3% [1]
Coinbase mid-price lead time over BRTI8–14 seconds [1]
BRTI value snapshot (Oct 31, 2026)$77,110.79 at 05:17:46 GMT [2][3][4]
The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRTI) is a volume-weighted index, distinct from Coinbase spot prices. The BRTI is a consolidated index that compiles bid/ask order books from various constituent exchanges, with prices weighted by depth and calculated every second [5][6][7]. For Coinbase/Kalshi-style BTC 15-minute contracts, settlement relies on a volume-weighted average of 60 BRTI readings during the final minute before expiration, a method Coinbase explicitly warns can diverge from its displayed spot price [2][8][9].
Volatile periods can widen the BRTI and Coinbase basis. While the basis between BRTI and Coinbase is typically small in stable markets, it can expand during volatility. This expansion occurs because BRTI aggregates data from multiple venues and considers depth, effectively damping brief, venue-specific price spikes while still incorporating broader market movements [5][6][10]. A third-party backtest in 2026 indicated that Coinbase's mid-price might lead a smoothed BRTI by approximately 8–14 seconds during rapid market shifts, identifying temporary deviations exceeding 0.3% after quick Coinbase price movements [1].
Historical deviation analysis requires unavailable proprietary data for precise calculation. Determining the exact historical deviation for early-morning US trading hours on a specific date would necessitate licensed, minute-by-minute BRTI observations and synchronized Coinbase data, neither of which is publicly available [5][2][3][4][11]. For the specific market segment of October 31, 2026, between 3:45–4:00 AM EDT, the relevant comparison is the $77,205.04 threshold against the final-minute BRTI average, rather than a general price tracking mechanism [8][9].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Settlement-Source Drift Arbitrage: Kalshi BRTI vs Coinbase Spot | Kalshi BackTestkalshibacktest.com
  2. 2CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  4. 4Storico dei prezzi di Bitcoin (BTC) e download gratuito dei dati storici di Bitcoin in CSV | Bitgetbitget.com
  5. 5CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6Analysis of the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate and CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcmegroup.com
  7. 7CME CF (BRTI)cmegroup.com
  8. 8Payouts from prediction markets | Coinbase Helphelp.coinbase.com
  9. 9Prediction markets - Introduction | Coinbase Helphelp.coinbase.com
  10. 10CF Settlement Pricesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  11. 11CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historical Data - CME Groupcmegroup.com

8. What specific on-chain data from Glassnode or CryptoQuant is available to track exchange inflows/outflows from Binance following the October 30 security incident?

Total Outflow (October 29)27,987 BTC [1]
Top-10 Outflow Concentration (October 29)85.9% [1]
Binance BTC Reserves (after incident)above 682,000 BTC (fell 3.1%) [2][3]
Data providers offer specific metrics to track Binance BTC flows. Glassnode provides total inflow, total outflow, and netflow, which is defined as inflow minus outflow, noting that its exchange labels and recent historical data are subject to revision [4][5][6]. CryptoQuant offers additional data points including total outflow, outflow transaction count, top-10 outflow concentration, and Binance BTC reserves [1][2]. It is crucial to distinguish between attacker transfers and ordinary customer withdrawals in post-incident exchange-flow readings, especially since Binance officially reported a temporary suspension of withdrawals on October 30, 2026, while deposits remained normal [7].
Significant BTC outflows occurred from Binance prior to withdrawal suspension. On October 29, CryptoQuant reported a total outflow of 27,987 BTC from Binance, occurring across 699 outflow transactions, with the ten largest transfers accounting for 85.9% of the total [1]. CryptoQuant's analyses indicate that approximately 18,279 BTC was removed from Binance during the incident, causing reserves to fall by about 3.1% to above 682,000 BTC [2][3]. CryptoQuant cautions that its labeled-wallet flow includes unauthorized transfers, internal operations, and customer withdrawals, thus establishing concentration rather than directly attributing theft [1].
Interpreting post-incident flow data requires careful consideration. While a live CryptoQuant reading on October 30 showed a near-zero outflow of 0.000222 BTC across two transactions, this value should not be interpreted as normalized demand or restored confidence, as withdrawals were suspended and the daily candle was incomplete [1]. For the prediction-market window (October 31, 3:45–4:00 a.m. EDT), key signals for assessing if withdrawals resume or if reserves continue to fall include Binance BTC netflow, total outflow, total inflow, outflow transaction count, top-10 outflow concentration, and Binance BTC reserves [4][5][1][2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Binance's $6.3B Incident: 10 Transfers Carried 85.9% of Its BTC Outflow | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  2. 2Binance reserves hold up after the $6.3B Lazarus-linked exploit | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  3. 318,279 BTC drained from Binance in the crypto industry’s largest hack | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  4. 4BTC Exchange Netflow Volume Binance - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  5. 5BTC Exchange Inflow Volume (Total) Binance - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  6. 6BTC Exchange Outflow Volume (Mean) Binance - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  7. 7Security Incident Update | Binance Supportbinance.com

9. How might trading behavior during the Asian session on October 31 react to the reported $643M in U.S. spot-Bitcoin-ETF outflows?

U.S. spot-Bitcoin-ETF net outflows (Oct 30, 2026)$643.2M–$643.33M [1][2][3][4]
Total ETF net assetsroughly $98.14B [2][5]
Outflow as percentage of ETF assetsabout 0.66% [2][5]
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest initial risk-off sentiment. The Asian trading session on October 31 is expected to commence with a risk-off sentiment, following reported U.S. spot-Bitcoin-ETF net outflows of approximately $643.2M–$643.33M on October 30, 2026, which concluded four consecutive days of inflows [1][2][3][4]. This initial market impulse could lead to selling into price rebounds and increases the likelihood of testing support levels around $77,000 or the recent $76,100–$76,300 area. However, for a specific contract like the $77,205.04 15-minute contract, these outflows alone do not establish a reliable directional edge [2][3][6][7][8]. The $643M outflow, while material, represented a modest approximately 0.66% of the roughly $98.14B in total ETF net assets, implying it is more indicative of bearish sentiment or liquidity adjustments rather than forced liquidations [2][5]. Bitcoin was trading near $77,160–$77,347 early on October 31, suggesting the $77,205.04 target falls within ordinary short-term volatility [2][3].
Traders may interpret outflows as temporary profit-taking or a temporary reversal. Conversely, Asian traders might perceive the $643M outflow as profit-taking or a temporary market reversal, particularly given its small proportion of total ETF assets and its occurrence after four days of sustained inflows [1][2][3]. This alternative bullish scenario could trigger short covering or encourage bargain buying near identified support levels, potentially maintaining BTC above the $77,205.04 threshold despite negative headline sentiment [1][2][3]. Prediction markets on October 31 offered a range-bound to mildly bearish outlook for near-term Bitcoin outcomes; for instance, a 2:00–2:15 AM EDT $77,128.27 threshold had an approximate 81% "Yes" probability, while a later 3:30–3:45 AM EDT $77,292.08 threshold registered only about 27% "Yes" [6][7][8]. For the $77,205.04 contract specifically, factors such as market microstructure, prevailing volatility, and the specific CF Benchmarks reference are anticipated to exert more influence than the daily ETF outflow headline itself [2][3][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $643 million in a day as Ethereum funds lose $156 millioncryptobriefing.com
  2. 2Bitcoin price today: ETFs lose $643M after Binance hack – Coindarocoindaro.com
  3. 3U.S. Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Record $799 Million in Outflows | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  4. 4Bitcoin ETF: $643M Net Outflow on Oct 30 | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  5. 5Bitcoin Spot ETFs Log $643M Net Outflow Yesterday, Led by BlackRock's IBIT With $234M | PANews Englishpanews.io
  6. 6BTC Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:30–3:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 2:00–2:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key timeline catalysts surrounding the October 31, 2026 3:45-4:00 AM EDT window included the October 28 Fed decision, October 29 US Q3 GDP and September PCE, and the October 30 $10.9 billion Deribit monthly options expiry [1][2]. The October 31 monthly candle close at 00:00 UTC on November 1, and Binance’s planned withdrawal resumption around 05:30 UTC November 1, also coincided with this period [3][4]. US midterm elections were scheduled for November 3 [1].
The broader October 31 backdrop was bearish-to-neutral, with BTC near $77,015 at 05:00 UTC, within a $76,469-$77,494 overnight range [3]. Reported headwinds included a hawkish Fed outlook, weak ETF flows, and a reported $6.3 billion Binance hack [5]. Exchange outflows and possible ETF inflows offered bullish counterweights [5]. Key nearby support was $76,469/$76,231, and resistance was $77,494/$78,667 [3]. The best-supported scenario for 3:45-4:00 AM EDT implies range-bound consolidation near $77,200-$77,300, with a slight bullish tilt only if BTC holds above roughly $77,200 and breaks $77,494 [6][7][3][8][9]. Bearish risk increases on a move below $76,469, with $76,231 as the next cited support [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 31, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  2. 2Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  3. 3First Print 31 Oct: bitcoin near $77,000 on October's last daycryptowatchdesk.com
  4. 4MEXC Crypto Macro and Trading Weekly Report: FOMC Holds Steady, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Mark?mexc.co
  5. 5Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
  6. 6October 31, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:30–3:45 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7October 31, 2026: BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8BTC 15 min · $77,284.18 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Min Prediction: Live Odds, Kalshi vs Polymarketdefirate.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310345-45: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310330-30: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310315-15: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310300-00: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT310245-45: YES (Oct 31, 2026)