Short Answer

Bitcoin reaching $77,380.38 between 11:00 AM EST and 11:15 AM EST on November 2 is not expected, priced by the market at 0.1%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Since last update (about an hour ago): The market led probability decline for the $77,380.38 target, flipping the edge by +5.5pp.
  • Model probability for the target plunged -78.4pp, while market probability plummeted -83.9pp.
  • The confidence score remained 5.0, reflecting a +0.0pp change.
  • The $77,380.38 target appears unlikely given historical spot ETF net outflows.
  • Bitcoin faces short-term risks; $76.3K-$77.0K support shows moderate conviction.

Current Context

The Robinhood contract targets a specific Bitcoin price threshold by November 2, 2026. This market determines if the CF Benchmarks BRTI average for Bitcoin during the final 60 seconds before 11:15 AM EST on November 2, 2026, is at least its average during the final 60 seconds before 11:00 AM EST, with a target of $77,380.38 [1]. The displayed Yes price was 79¢ [1]. Prediction markets use differing rules and benchmarks; Robinhood employs CF Benchmarks BRTI averages, distinct from other listings that may reference different benchmarks or timeframes, precluding direct probability comparisons [1][2].
Bitcoin faced headwinds from outflows and technical levels, but found some support. Around November 2, 2026, BTC traded near $77.8K–$78.5K, following a 7.3% decline in October [3][4][5]. Reported pressures included approximately $202M in weekly U.S. spot-BTC-ETF net outflows, weak risk sentiment, and the aftermath of a reported $6.3B Binance hack [3][4][5]. Key short-term technical levels established resistance around $79.2K–$80.3K/$80.9K and support around $76.3K–$77.0K [4][6][5][7]. One daily model assigned a 68% probability for a November 2 range between $77,010 and $79,760 [4][6][5][7]. Expert views were mixed; Michaël van de Poppe suggested the correction might be ending, though another low sweep was possible, while Alex Thorn noted seven consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week moving average [8][9]. Conversely, Bitunix highlighted ETF withdrawals, election uncertainty, and downside risk toward the estimated $74.8K cost basis [8][9].
Evidence suggests Bitcoin likely remains above target, but downside risk persists. A separate November 2, 11:00 AM ET market indicated a near-50/50 line around $77,800, with 50% odds for at least $77,800, 64% for $77,700, and 38% for $77,900 [10]. This offers cross-market insight into a narrow, uncertain price zone, but does not pertain to the same contract or benchmark as the Robinhood 15-minute market [10]. For the 11:00–11:15 AM EST window, the evidence supports a base case of BTC remaining above $77,380.38. This holds a modest edge, not certainty; spot prices generally stayed hundreds of dollars above the threshold, yet nearby support levels and negative flows kept downside volatility possible [3][4][6][5][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Up or Down: Price to beat $77,380.38 - 1 hr | Predict with Futuurfutuur.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Forecast: How low can BTC go?fxstreet.com
  4. 4What's moving Bitcoin this week?fxstreet.com
  5. 5Bitcoin recovers 1% above $78.5K after last week's sell-offmoneycontrol.com
  6. 6AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets — November 2, 2026akshar.group
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Prediction November 2026: Can BTC Reclaim $80,225 as ETF Flows Turn Negative?coinedition.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Bulls See Light At The End Of The Correction As Michaël Van de Poppe Says Midterm Elections Are 'Priced In'finance.yahoo.com
  9. 9How Bitcoin Looks Heading Into a High-Stakes US Midterm Election Weekfinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10BTC price on Nov 2, 2026 at 11am EST? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the final Bitcoin price at 11:15 AM EST on November 2 is greater than or equal to $77,380.38; otherwise, it resolves NO. The final price is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before the 11:15 AM EST expiration.

Market Discussion

The prediction market concerns whether Bitcoin's CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average for the 11:00–11:15 AM EST window on November 2, 2026, reaches $77,380.38 or above [1]. Broader commentary for November 2, 2026, indicated mixed-to-bullish sentiment, with probabilities for BTC exceeding $78,000 ranging from 32.5% to 54% [2][3]. However, similar-looking markets with the $77,380.38 target or other 15-minute BTC up/down contracts are distinct from this specific event, and available evidence does not provide a definitive outcome [1][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Catcher Predict: "Bitcoin broke through" "78,...chaincatcher.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price on November 2? Odds | DexTradingdextrading.com
  4. 4Bitcoin 15-Minute Up or Down Chart — Live Polymarket Dataupdowncharts.com
  5. 5Kalshi BTC 15-Minute Up/Down — Live Chart | maxy chartsmaxycharts.com
  6. 6Bitcoin (BTC) 15-Minute Up or Down: Higher or Lower?pariflow.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Up or Down on November 2? · Market Guymarket-guy.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Price up or down today: $77,380.38 | Predict with Futuurfutuur.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Up or Down: Price to beat $77,380.38 - 1 hr - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Price up or down today: $77,380.38 - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $77,380.3865
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $77,380.38—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,380.3895
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
65Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

Target Price: $77,380.38Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 2, 2026

5. What short-term catalysts could trigger a drop below the critical $77,000 support level for Bitcoin before the November 2, 11:15 AM EST resolution?

ISM Manufacturing PMI release10:00 AM EST [1][2]
Friday Nasdaq Declineroughly 2.9% [3][1]
Friday U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflowsroughly $643 million [4][3][5][1]
Bitcoin faces short-term risks from rapid, overlapping market shocks. Catalysts that could push Bitcoin below the $77,000 support level before 11:15 AM EST on November 2 primarily include continued fallout from the Binance hack or a broader risk-off movement in equity markets [1][2]. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for 10:00 AM EST, is a known event whose impact would likely be understood before the contract's 11:00–11:15 AM EST resolution window [1][2]. The most significant ongoing crypto-specific threat is the Binance hack's repercussions, which could manifest as new withdrawal delays, reports of frozen funds, increased outflows, or renewed solvency fears, potentially leading to swift spot selling and liquidations [4][3][6].
Market conditions appear fragile, amplifying potential downward pressure. A renewed Nasdaq or broader risk-off selloff, building on Friday’s approximately 2.9% Nasdaq decline, represents another plausible short-term driver [3][1]. This risk is heightened if it coincides with negative interpretations of ETF flows, weak Strategy purchase disclosures, or new Binance headlines [3][1]. Such market movements could be further amplified by low liquidity, widespread stop-losses, and leverage [1][2]. Current demand and technical indicators are weak, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing about $643 million in outflows on Friday, and BTC already having dropped towards approximately $76,300 [4][3][5][1]. A definitive break below $77,000 could trigger further stop-losses and liquidate leveraged long positions, potentially pushing prices towards lower levels such as $76,300/$76,546 and $75,000 [4][3][5][1].
The prediction contract's resolution depends on specific benchmark averaging. It is crucial to understand that the contract will resolve based on whether the simple average of CF Benchmarks BRTI readings during the 60 seconds before 11:15 AM EST is at least the corresponding 60-second average before 11:00 AM EST [7]. Consequently, a temporary dip below $77,000 alone would not determine the outcome unless it causes the end-window benchmark average to fall below the start-window average [7]. A price drop below $77,000 could still result in a "Yes" resolution if the initial window average was lower or if the benchmark recovers before 11:15 AM EST [7][8]. Currently, the market context does not suggest that a price below $77,000 is the expected base case [4][3][1][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin on Nov 2, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlook (archive)coinlab.info
  2. 2Bitcoin price Today at 10:45 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Clings To 77,800 After The Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M And Ether Lost Its Trendline | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 02 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
  4. 4Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin holds above $77K ahead of US midterm elections — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  6. 6Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  7. 7November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Price on November 2, 2026? Live Odds | Lumina Marketsluminamarkets.com

6. How strong is the evidence from on-chain metrics and technical indicators that Bitcoin's support around $76.3K-$77.0K will hold through the morning of November 2?

Bitcoin Support Zone$76.3K-$77.0K [1][2][3]
RSI Readingsapproximately 38-45 [2][3][4]
Funding Ratemildly positive near 0.01% per 8 hours [5][4]
Bitcoin's $76.3K-$77.0K support showed moderate, not high, conviction. The evidence for Bitcoin's $76.3K-$77.0K support holding through the morning of November 2 was moderate, lacking high conviction, despite the price generally being reported above the $77,380.38 reference during this period [1][2][3][5][4][6][7][8]. Technical indicators such as the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a recent swing low, and a trendline offered meaningful but ultimately not decisive support [1][2][3]. Momentum was weak, evidenced by Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings between 38-45 and the price remaining below key moving averages, which indicated substantial breakdown risk despite potential for a bounce from support [2][3][4].
Derivatives and flow data presented a mixed and vulnerable market picture. Derivatives and flow data painted a mixed picture for Bitcoin's stability. Funding rates were mildly positive, around 0.01% per 8 hours, and while some snapshots indicated a decrease in Binance open interest, others showed rising open interest alongside calm liquidations [5][4][6][7]. Although spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) was recovering and Binance outflows reportedly easing, factors like elevated long positioning increased vulnerability to downside liquidations [4][6][7]. Additional headwinds included continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, a negative Coinbase premium, shrinking stablecoin supply, and a generally bearish market sentiment [4][6].
The probability of holding support was moderate, but specific outcomes uncertain. Overall, the assessment estimated the probability of no sustained break below the $76.3K-$77.0K range through the morning was approximately 55%-65% [1][2][3][5][4][6][7]. However, the specific outcome for the 11:00-11:15 BRTI, which evaluates a 15-minute change criterion, could not be directly inferred from this support analysis alone [8][1][2][3][5][4][6][7]. Short-horizon volatility, thin liquidity, specific market positioning, and scheduled macroeconomic news were identified as dominant factors that could influence such a precise, short-term event [8][1][2][3][5][4][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1What's moving Bitcoin this week?fxstreet.com
  2. 2Bitcoin tests key support in descending channel: Live levels By Investing.cominvesting.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Clings To 77,800 After The Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M And Ether Lost Its Trendline | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 02 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Today, Nov 2, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
  5. 5Bitcoin 2 Nov 2026: positioning, call/put wall alternativeswiftedge.uk
  6. 6BTC spot CVD rebounds but price diverges; open interest rises amid calm liquidations.mexc.fm
  7. 7Bitcoin Price | BTC Live Data, Funding & Open Interest | CoinClasscoinclass.com
  8. 8November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

7. How do the short-term Bitcoin price theses from Michaël van de Poppe and Bitunix diverge in their interpretation of recent ETF outflows and market structure?

ETF Outflows (Oct 30)$643.3 million [1][2]
Total ETF Assets~$98.14 billion [2]
Van de Poppe Target$78,800-$80,000 [1][3]
Michaël van de Poppe and Bitunix offer contrasting short-term Bitcoin price outlooks. Van de Poppe maintains a tactically bullish perspective, viewing the recent market selloff as a liquidity event and anticipating a rebound towards the $78,800-$80,000 range after a liquidity sweep [1][3][4][5]. In contrast, Bitunix adopts a conditionally neutral-to-bearish stance, asserting that a sustained recovery depends on significant confirmation, including reduced ETF outflows and a reclaim of the $82,800 price level [1][3][4][5].
Van de Poppe sees the selloff as a market-structure event, not a trend breakdown. The recent selloff, which included U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing $643.3 million in outflows on Friday, October 30, is interpreted as a market-structure event rather than a definitive trend breakdown [1][2]. He observes that Friday's low swept liquidity below a prior low, suggesting the correction is nearing its end, and expects Bitcoin to test approximately $78,800-$79,800 and potentially $80,000 [1]. While allowing for another low sweep, he identifies sub-$75,000 as his maximum-bid zone [1][3]. The total ETF outflows of about $202.6 million net for the week and $515 million for October are considered by some analysts as a sentiment shock or de-risking, given that $643 million represents less than 1% of the approximately $98.14 billion in total ETF assets [2][6][7].
Bitunix's analysis hinges on specific price levels and confirmation criteria. Bitunix analysts state that weakened ETF demand requires renewed spot buying, healthier derivatives positioning, and a reclaim of $82,800 for any lasting recovery [4]. Should Bitcoin climb above $82,800, Bitunix forecasts a potential move towards $85,000-$87,000. However, rejection at this level and a breach below approximately $80,400 would target $79,700-$77,000, with deeper support identified at $70,500-$72,900 [4]. Near the November 2 prediction window, BTC traded around $77,970-$78,000, positioned within a range and below key resistance, with immediate resistance near $78,550 and support around $76,932 [8][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Michaël van de Poppe: Bitcoin is in for tests at $80,000. It has taken the low on Friday, in which… | Atlas Pulse AIatlaspulseai.com
  2. 2Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Holds Its Ground After Binance Hack As Michaël van de Poppe Says Midterms Are 'Already Priced In'stocktwits.com
  4. 4Bitunix analysts flag $82,800 as pivotal Bitcoin level as ETF demand weakenscryptobriefing.com
  5. 5Bitcoin ETFs: $614M Daily Outflow Hits Nov 2 | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  6. 6Spot bitcoin ETFs see largest daily outflows in four months following record Binance hacktheblock.co
  7. 7Bitcoin ETFs Lose $203M as Friday Rout Wipes out Weekly Gainsnews.bitcoin.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-11-01 | thru.capitalthru.capital

8. What is the typical spread and lag between the CF Benchmarks BRTI and the real-time spot prices on major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken during intraday volatility?

BRTI Calculation FrequencyApproximately every second [1][2]
BRTI Retrieval Lag Threshold10 seconds [3][4]
Prediction Market Settlement BasisSimple average of sixty consecutive BRTI values [5][6]
The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) consolidates real-time price data from major exchanges. This index is computed approximately every second by aggregating order book data from multiple constituent exchanges, including major platforms such as Coinbase and Kraken [1][2]. To maintain timeliness, the BRTI methodology includes a Retrieval Lag Threshold of 10 seconds, which ensures that any exchange data older than this limit is excluded from its calculation [3][4]. The BRTI is specifically designed to represent a consolidated fair value rather than simply mirroring the spot price of any single exchange [7].
The BRTI mitigates volatility through its averaging methodology for settlement. While cryptocurrency markets can exhibit price fragmentation and widening spreads across exchanges during periods of high intraday volatility [8][9], the BRTI's design and use in settlement help address these issues. For instance, prediction markets achieve a standardized settlement price by using the simple average of sixty consecutive BRTI values immediately prior to a contract's expiration [5][6]. This specific averaging approach is employed to mitigate the effects of transient volatility on individual exchanges [5][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Frequently Asked Questionscmegroup.com
  3. 3CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4FAQ: CME CF Single-Asset Cryptocurrency Benchmarkscmegroup.com
  5. 5November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 10:00–10:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bitcoin spot and futures market microstructureideas.repec.org
  8. 8Bitcoin arbitrage: The role of an exchangeaimspress.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Exchange Rates: How Integrated are Markets? by Alexander Brauneis, Roland Mestel, Ryan Riordan, Erik Theissen:: SSRNpapers.ssrn.com

9. What is the historical price impact of spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows in the $200M range, similar to the week preceding November 2?

Weekly Net Outflows (Oct. 26–30)$202.4–$202.6 million [1][2][3]
Largest Daily Redemption (Oct. 30)$643.2–$643.3 million [1][2][3]
Bitcoin Price (Oct. 30)Around $77,545.63 [4][3]
Historical episodes indicate that spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows are associated with short-term price declines. Historical data suggests a link between spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows, particularly those in the $200 million range, and short-term declines in Bitcoin's price [5][6][7]. However, this association is not deterministic, and the magnitude of price impact can vary [5][7]. For example, the week immediately preceding November 2, 2026 (October 26–30), experienced total net outflows of approximately $202.4–$202.6 million [1][2]. A significant portion of this, about $643.2–$643.3 million, stemmed from a single redemption event on October 30 [1][2][3]. This outflow on October 30 occurred when Bitcoin was trading around $77,545.63, though sources do not conclusively attribute the price movement solely to ETF activity [4][3].
ETF outflows alone do not deterministically cause Bitcoin price changes. While outflows of roughly $200 million per day or more can coincide with short-term price declines, the extent of price movement differs, as multiple factors frequently influence price action [5][7]. A case in point is the $569.1 million outflow on January 8, 2025, which coincided with BTC trading near $94,401 after a prior dip to $92,500 [8]. However, macro news, liquidations, and evolving rate expectations were also cited as contributing factors to the price dynamics at that time [6][8]. Large ETF redemptions are not considered a deterministic price signal, as such events often involve broader market trends and shifts in investor sentiment [6][7]. Regarding the prediction-market target of $77,380.38, the available pre-window evidence for the week preceding November 2, 2026, was directionally bearish but insufficient to precisely forecast a 15-minute price move, especially given Bitcoin was reported around $77,545.63 on November 2, only about $165 (0.21%) above the target [4][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETFs Lose $203M as Friday Rout Wipes out Weekly Gainsnews.bitcoin.com
  2. 2Bitcoin ETF Flows — Live Daily Tracker, Chart & Full History · TFTCtftc.io
  3. 3Fund Flows: Bitcoin ETFs Lose $643.2 Million in a Day as Ether Shorts Pay Funding · Goodman Macrogoodman-macro.com
  4. 4Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin ETFs Face Longest Outflow Streak Since April, $1.2 Billion Lostcoincentral.com
  6. 6US Bitcoin ETFs see historic outflows as brutal sell-off shakes crypto marketscryptobriefing.com
  7. 7Capitulation or rotation? $867M flees Bitcoin ETFs amid dip below $100,000cryptoslate.com
  8. 8Bitcoin investors exit spot ETFs at near-record levels as BTC slumps 2.3%ct.com
  9. 9Bitcoin ETFs: $614M Daily Outflow Hits Nov 2 | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The specified Robinhood contract asks whether Bitcoin's CF Benchmarks BRTI average during the final 60 seconds before 11:15 AM EST on Nov. 2, 2026 will be at least the corresponding final-60-second average before 11:00 AM EST, not whether BTC merely trades above $77,380.38 [1]. The listed Yes price was 79¢, implying roughly 79% market-implied probability before fees and bid/ask effects [1]. Adjacent Robinhood 15-minute contracts showed targets of $77,715.75 for 10:00–10:15 AM at 55¢ and $77,830.33 for 10:15–10:30 AM at 49¢, indicating a volatile, roughly $77.7K–$77.8K intraday reference zone immediately before the requested window [2][3]. Other prediction-market snapshots placed the 11:00 AM ET BTC level around $77.7K–$77.8K: OG displayed a $77,781.74 target, while Frenzy Capital's leading range was $77,700–$77,799.99 at 16%, followed by $77,600–$77,699.99 at 15% and $77,800–$77,899.99 at 14% [4][5].
The immediate backdrop for Bitcoin was substantial. BTC was around $77.9K after a 0.4% UTC-day decline [6]. Binance users withdrew a net $3.64B after a reported $6.3B hack, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M of outflows on the prior Friday [6][7]. Key bullish or stabilizing factors included Binance reporting that it had replaced about 95% of stolen funds [8]. Analysts expected stabilization in a $76K–$80K range, with a possible move toward $82K if withdrawals proceeded smoothly [8][9][7]. Technical bias remained slightly bearish, with resistance near $80.3K and support near $77.8K and $76.4K [7].
Forward catalysts include the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections and Nov. 3 JOLTS data [8][9]. On Nov. 4, euro-area inflation and ISM Services data are due [8]. The Bank of England decision follows on Nov. 5 [8]. Key data on Nov. 6 includes U.S. payrolls and unemployment, alongside a Deribit expiry of about 26,966 BTC or $2.1B, with calls concentrated at $82K and $85K [8][9][10]. For the specific 11:00–11:15 AM EST contract, the evidence favors a bullish/Yes lean, but the contract's wording means the relevant condition is nondecrease versus the 11:00 AM baseline, not simply finishing above $77,380.38 [1][6][7]. The 79¢ quote remains the strongest available signal; event-specific news risk and thin 15-minute liquidity make the remaining 21% materially uncertain [1][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 02, 2026
  • Expiration: November 09, 2026
  • Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 10:15–10:30 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3November 2, 2026: BTC 15 min · 10:00–10:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4Bitcoin price Today at 11:00 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
  5. 5BTC price range on Nov 2, 2026 at 11am EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Bitcoin holds near $78,000 as Binance reopens withdrawals: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  7. 7What's moving Bitcoin this week?fxstreet.com
  8. 8Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Faces 3 Big Tests During the First Week of Novemberbeincrypto.com
  10. 10Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021100-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021045-45: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021030-30: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021015-15: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV021000-00: NO (Nov 02, 2026)