Short Answer

BTC is expected to reach $77,778.26 within the 15-minute window from 6:00 PM EST to 6:15 PM EST on November 3, with the market pricing this outcome at 60.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Bitcoin reaching $77,778.26 likely due to projected short-term election volatility.
  • Significant sell-side pressure and layered resistance limit upside near $80,000.
  • Negative sentiment from large ETF outflows and Binance withdrawals weighs on price.

Current Context

Bitcoin target market resolution depends on current price averages. The BTC 15-minute prediction market for November 3, 2026, 6:00–6:15 PM EST, targeting $77,778.26, resolves based on the simple average of 60 CF Benchmarks BRTI prices collected in the final minute before 6:15 PM EST. This market is available on Robinhood and Kalshi, with payouts typically within one hour of resolution [1][2][3][4][5]. As of November 3, 2026, Bitcoin traded between $77,660 and $77,834, representing a 0.2–1.5% increase over 24 hours. The BRTI recorded a day's range from $76,257.44 to $77,885.95, with the latest price at $77,833.85 (+1.44%) [6][7]. CoinGecko prediction market data indicated a 100% probability for Bitcoin to reach $78,000 during the week of November 2–8 [8].
Lagging spot demand and outflows pressured Bitcoin's immediate price. Bitcoin remained between $77,000 and $80,000 due to insufficient spot demand. Bitfinex observed passive buying within this $77K–$80K zone, totaling 1.05 million BTC acquired, while identifying resistance near $81,300 [6]. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, the largest daily withdrawal since June 25 [6]. Conversely, futures open interest increased 12.1% to 694,728 BTC despite a 5.3% price decline [6]. Wintermute specified the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as an important support level. They cautioned that Bitcoin needed to reclaim $80,000 with improved spot demand and ETF inflows to enhance its outlook [6]. The market also faced pressure from a $6.3 billion Binance hack, which triggered approximately $1.5 billion in liquidations, 85% of which were leveraged long positions [6][9]. Alex Ryzhkin, B2BINPAY's chief commercial officer, suggested that while exchange hacks weigh on the market, sell-offs are often moderate due to deep institutional presence. He predicted Bitcoin could stabilize at $76K–$80K the following week and move toward $82K by the weekend, assuming smooth post-hack withdrawals [9].
U.S. midterm elections introduce macro catalysts for Bitcoin's trajectory. November 3, 2026, coincided with the U.S. midterm elections, a key date for crypto markets. Binance Research noted that historically, the 12 months following U.S. midterm elections have seen average increases of 19% for the S&P 500 and 54% for Bitcoin [10][9][11][12][13][14][15]. Analyst Krown believed Bitcoin would likely remain in positive territory for the midterms, citing positive performance in 86% of previous U.S. election cycles. He projected a 90% probability of a positive November and a potential run to $87,500, identifying $77,300 as critical daily support and $80,338 as the level required for a mood shift [16]. Chris Sullivan, Hyperion Decimus CEO, highlighted approximately 29,220 bitcoin-equivalent short positions on CME, valued at about $2.2 billion, which could trigger a short squeeze. He also observed substantial Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges into cold storage [10]. Bitcoin's implied volatility term structure exhibited a midterm bump; implied volatility on options expiring November 4 was about 43.5%, notably higher than the roughly 36% for subsequent expiries. The options market suggested a potential trading range between $74,400 and $81,750 through the November 6 expiry [6][17]. CoinGecko prediction market data showed a 78.5% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of November 2026, with $77,500 having a 97.2% probability of support [8]. Mark Connors, CIO at Risk Dimensions, maintained a $180,000 price target for 2027 and a $500,000 base case for 2030 [10].
Sources (17)
  1. 1November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3BTC 15 min · $77,654.49 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Best Apps for Trading on Crypto 15 Min Prediction Markets 2026thegruelingtruth.com
  5. 515 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  6. 6Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  8. 8Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  9. 9Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  10. 10Bitcoin price analysis: BTC traders hopeful for post-election gainscoindesk.com
  11. 11Binance sees potential Bitcoin rebound after US midterm electionscointribune.com
  12. 12Binance: U.S. Midterms Historically Followed by Strong Bitcoin Gains | Bitcoin Binance | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  13. 13Binance says US midterms could boost Bitcoin and stocks — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  14. 14Bitcoin's 2026 Midterm Catalyst: Flow Analysis vs. Geopolitical Riskainvest.com
  15. 15US Midterms may Fuel Crypto, Stock Market Recovery: Binance Researchcointelegraph.com
  16. 16Bitcoin price prediction for November 3, 2026: 8 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com
  17. 17Bitcoin's 'volatility curve' has a midterm bump: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the final determined price of Bitcoin (BTC) is greater than $77,778.26, and 'No' if it is less than or equal to this target. The market expires on November 3, 6:15 PM EST, with the final price calculated as the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

Public discussion for BTC 15-minute markets shows active trading near the $77,778 target, with Public.com listing a market on November 3 at 9:45 PM UTC with an 87% probability for a $77,802.39 target [1], and Totalis.trade indicating a 90.0-cent 'Yes' price for 'Above $77,870' [2]. These ultra-short-term crypto prediction markets are highly popular, reportedly accounting for almost 80% of crypto betting market volume on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket [3]. On November 3, 2026, Bitcoin was noted trading around $76,800, with some analysts identifying key resistance at $79,000-$81,200 and others suggesting a long position at $75,000 [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 115 min Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Bitcoin crypto prediction markets | Totalisapp.totalis.trade
  3. 3Bitcoin Up or Down Prediction Market Datacryptostruct.com
  4. 4Michaël van de Poppe: Bitcoin long at $75,000 | Gokhshteingokhshtein.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good

One trade was 41% of everything ever traded in “Target Price: $77,778.26” — a $739 tape.

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score64Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 4% of the price to slippage.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
78Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

One trade was 41% of everything ever traded in “Target Price: $77,778.26” — a $739 tape.

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,778.26—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,778.26—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,778.2695
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
64Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 56.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 56.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.4c slippage (~4% of a 56.5c contract)

Target Price: $77,778.26Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 3, 2026

5. How might early U.S. midterm election results from key states, announced between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM EST on November 3, impact Bitcoin's short-term volatility and pressure on the CF Benchmarks BRTI?

2024 Election Premium8% [1][2]
Dem House Odds (2026)80–94% [3][4][5][6]
Bitcoin Price (Nov 3, 2026)$77,700–$77,800 [7][8][9]
Early U.S. midterm election results are projected to generate sharp, short-term Bitcoin volatility. Specifically, the 15-minute period between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM EST on November 3, 2026, is anticipated to cause significant, short-lived price swings in the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) [10][11][12][6][13]. This window is identified as high-volatility due to early state poll closures and potential headline-driven whipsaw, which could considerably impact the 60-second BRTI average used for market settlement [12][10][6][13]. A precedent was set during the 2020 U.S. election, where a 4.5x surge in BTC/USD trading volume occurred around 7 PM EST as initial results emerged, suggesting a similar event-driven volatility is expected for the 2026 midterms [10][11].
Prediction markets anticipate a divided Congress, influencing Bitcoin's immediate direction. Current estimates suggest an 80–94% probability of Democrats securing the House, alongside approximately a 60% chance of Republicans retaining the Senate for the November 3, 2026 midterms, making a divided Congress the most likely outcome [3][4][5][6]. A Democratic victory in the House could lead to a short-term Bitcoin sell-off due to expected increased regulatory scrutiny, whereas a Republican hold might trigger a relief rally [7][8][3][14][5][9][15][16]. Such political divisions are also projected to stall the CLARITY Act, contributing to near-term uncertainty for Bitcoin [3][4][5][6]. On election day, Bitcoin was trading between $77,700–$77,800, positioned just below the $77,778.26 target for the 15-minute prediction market, indicating its high sensitivity to early election headlines [7][8][3][14][5][9][15][16].
Sources (16)
  1. 1What is the BTC Options Market Implying About Election Day? | Presto Researchprestolabs.io
  2. 2Bitcoin traders brace for fierce price swings as clock ticks to U.S. vote | Fortunefortune.com
  3. 3Bitcoin May Be Underpricing Democratic Midterm Victory, Hilbert CIO Warns | TLTtlt.ng
  4. 4Crypto and the 2026 Elections: Buy the Vote, Sell the Law | HOGE Wirehoge.gg
  5. 5Did Bitcoin actually care about US elections? A 7-cycle event study | MarketTrace Blogmarkettrace.ai
  6. 6US Midterm Elections 2026 and Crypto: Understanding the Impact on Your Portfolio| KuCoinkucoin.com
  7. 7Live updates: Bitcoin faces fifth weekly loss as midterm elections weigh on marketscoindesk.com
  8. 8Bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10Not quite a crypto cliff-hanger - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  11. 11Bitcoin’s Open Interest Question - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  12. 12U.S. Midterms and Bitcoin: Risks to Watch November 3–11tapbit.com
  13. 13Kalshi Crypto Markets: How to Trade Crypto at Kalshi - EdifyingCrypto.comedifyingcrypto.com
  14. 14November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  15. 15Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  16. 16Kalshi Crypto Markets: Bitcoin & Ethereum Odds vs What Actually Settled | ContractTaxcontracttax.com

6. What on-chain data and CME futures positioning metrics support the thesis of a potential short squeeze driving Bitcoin above $77,778 before 6:15 PM EST on November 3?

CME Short PositionsApproximately 29,220 BTC equivalent, worth $2.2 billion [1]
Overall Long/Short Ratio49.5% longs / 50.5% shorts [2]
Key Short Liquidation Clusters$38.9M at $77,813 and $6.9M at $78,065 [2][3]
Several metrics indicate potential for a Bitcoin short squeeze. Approximately 29,220 bitcoin-equivalent short positions on CME, valued at about $2.2 billion, were identified by Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus, alongside $21.99 billion in short-side taker volume within 24 hours [1]. On November 3, 2026, futures liquidations notably shifted from longs to shorts, compelling short sellers to cover their positions and fostering squeeze dynamics [4]. The overall long/short ratio across all exchanges currently shows a slight short skew at 49.5% longs to 50.5% shorts, further supporting squeeze potential [2]. Additionally, CFTC data reveals a significant shift, with hedge funds moving from a persistent net short to a net long position in recent weeks [5]. Glassnode's report further indicates aggressive demand for long positions, with a 40.5% increase in long-side funding payments coupled with a 48% decrease in perpetual CVD [6]. A historical precedent for such squeeze magnitudes was observed on August 19-20, 2026, when over $3 billion in leveraged short positions were liquidated [7].
On-chain data highlights specific price levels for Bitcoin liquidity. Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage clusters are concentrated between $77,790-$78,050 and $78,530-$78,910, suggesting potential targets up to $79,000 [8]. The 24-hour liquidity heatmap reinforces this, showing concentrated liquidity bands in the $78,300-$79,500 overhead region [2]. Specific clusters for short liquidations include $38.9 million at $77,813 and $6.9 million at $78,065, positioned directly above the $77,778 target [2][3]. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Bitcoin also sits at $77,774, acting as an overhead resistance [9]. Additionally, large Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges into cold storage are reducing the available sell-side supply, further supporting a price increase [1].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin price analysis: BTC traders hopeful for post-election gainscoindesk.com
  2. 2BTC Open Interest Falls to $52.71B as CME Drops Nearly 20% While Crypto Exchanges Add Positions24crypto.news
  3. 3TheTerminal — Overviewtheterminal.cc
  4. 4Bitcoin Reclaims $77.5K as Futures Liquidations Shift to Shorts | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  5. 5what the institutional pullback means – NBTC Newsnews.nbtc.finance
  6. 6BTC Market Pulse: Week 45research.glassnode.com
  7. 7The $3 billion short squeeze: anatomy of crypto's biggest liquidation event since 2021crypto.news
  8. 8Bitcoin Eyes $79K Ahead of U.S. Elections —Short Squeeze Coming? for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by pejman_zwin — TradingViewtradingview.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC near the make-or-break level?fxstreet.com

7. How does the negative sentiment from recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows compare with the rising open interest on CME and Binance futures markets ahead of the November 3 resolution?

Total U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF OutflowsOver $1.04 billion (November 1-2, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Crypto Fear & Greed IndexDropped to 26 (Fear) from 37 (Caution) on November 2-3, 2026 [3][5]
Bitcoin Futures vs. Spot ETF Volume RatioApproximately 20-to-1 [6]
Recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows significantly dampened market sentiment. Over November 1-2, 2026, these outflows totaled more than $1.04 billion [1][2][3][4][5], including a "sentiment shock" day on November 1 with $643 million in outflows, which analysts noted represented less than 1% of total spot BTC ETF assets [3]. This negative sentiment was reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plummeted from a previous 37 (Caution) rating to 26 (Fear range) on November 2-3, 2026 [3][5]. Additionally, the Coinbase premium remained negative, indicating weakening demand from U.S.-based investors [2][3].
Futures markets showed mixed activity, with derivatives dominating price discovery. While total Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges stood at approximately $52.71 billion on November 3, 2026, CME's open interest saw a nearly 20% decline [7]. Conversely, exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, Gate, and BingX experienced increased positions, signaling a shift towards crypto-native exchange activity [7]. Despite the recent spot ETF outflows, derivatives continue to be the primary driver of price discovery, with Bitcoin futures trading volumes being roughly 20 times larger than spot Bitcoin ETF volumes [6]. On November 3, 2026, Bitcoin traded in the range of approximately $77,720-$77,735 [7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETFs Lose $399M as 2-Day Outflows Top $1.04Bnews.bitcoin.com
  2. 2Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com
  3. 3Spot bitcoin ETFs see largest daily outflows in four months following record Binance hacktheblock.co
  4. 4Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000 as Spot ETFs Log Nearly $400M in Outflows | CoinCodexcoincodex.com
  5. 5US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Massive $398.6M Outflows as Market Sentiment Slips Into "Fear" - The Cryptocurrency Postthecryptocurrencypost.net
  6. 6The Reason Bitcoin Is Stuck: Futures Trading Dwarfs ETFs 20-To-1newsbtc.com
  7. 7BTC Open Interest Falls to $52.71B as CME Drops Nearly 20% While Crypto Exchanges Add Positions24crypto.news
  8. 8Historial da taxa de câmbio Bitcoin (BTC) e Dólar norte americano (USD) para o ano de 2026. free currency rates (FCR)freecurrencyrates.com
  9. 9Bitcoin (BTC) Price History and Historical Datacoincheckup.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com

8. What historical data is available on the spread between the CF Benchmarks BRTI and the spot prices on major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken during periods of high volatility?

Typical BRTI vs. exchange price differenceLess than 0.1% [1]
Coinbase lead time during fast moves8-14 seconds [1][2]
Mean cross-venue BTC spread (USDT adjusted)2.41 basis points [3]
The CF Benchmarks BRTI typically maintains tight alignment, even in volatile markets. Under normal conditions, the BRTI usually differs from major exchange prices by less than 0.1% [1]. However, during periods of high volatility, this basis can temporarily widen, with the Coinbase mid-price observed to lead the BRTI by 8-14 seconds during fast market movements [1][2]. Despite these temporary shifts, a 90-day study conducted from March to June 2026 found that the mean cross-venue BTC spread, after USDT adjustment, was 2.41 basis points [3]. The 99th percentile of this spread was 5.85 basis points, with the worst snapshot recorded at 7.08 basis points [3]. The study also observed that the correlation between 4-hour volatility and spread was only 0.106, indicating that major venues, including BRTI constituent exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken, tend to remain tightly aligned even in fast markets [4][3].
The BRTI incorporates safeguards to ensure accuracy and prevent manipulation. The methodology includes protective measures specifically designed to maintain reliability, particularly during high volatility [5][6]. These include a 5% deviation screen, which excludes any venue whose mid-price strays more than 5% from the median [5]. Additionally, a 10-second retrieval lag threshold excludes a venue until the gap narrows below 2.5%, effectively helping to protect against single-venue manipulation [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1CF Benchmarks BRTI: Bitcoin Reference Rate for CME Futuresbitcoincalculator.tools
  2. 2Settlement-Source Drift Arbitrage: Kalshi BRTI vs Coinbase Spot | Kalshi BackTestkalshibacktest.com
  3. 3How Much Do Bitcoin Prices Differ Across Exchanges? A 90-Day, 5-Venue Study · SiftingIOsifting.io
  4. 4How to Pull Kalshi Settlement Source Data (BRTI for BTC) | Kalshi BackTestkalshibacktest.com
  5. 5Who Signs the Price: The CME CF Real Time Indices Through CFB Oracle - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com

9. What does the order book depth on exchanges like Binance and Bitfinex reveal about sell-side pressure and resistance levels between Bitcoin's current price and the $80,000 mark?

Primary Sell Wall$39.70M between $77,356 and $77,743 [1]
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Oct 30)$643.2 million [2][3]
Nearest Resistance (Perpscreener)$80,070 [4]
Order book depth on major exchanges reveals significant sell-side pressure and layered resistance for Bitcoin leading up to the $80,000 mark. A primary sell wall totaling $39.70 million is positioned between $77,356 and $77,743, acting as a critical resistance level [1]. Further layered resistance includes a $12.57 million sell wall between $77,743 and $78,131, and an additional $4.30 million wall between $78,522 and $78,915 [1]. These collectively form a substantial barrier towards $80,000. Should Bitcoin successfully breach these initial resistance points, sell orders reportedly thin out, potentially easing its path to $80,000 [1].
Bitcoin's market outlook is constrained by passive demand and ETF outflows. Bitcoin's immediate price outlook is constrained by its current position within the $77,000 to $80,000 range, largely due to passive rather than aggressive buying activity [2][3]. This weak spot demand leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to further selling pressure, reinforced by significant US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows [2][3]. On October 30, these outflows totaled $643.2 million, marking their largest daily withdrawal since June [2][3]. Experts suggest Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 with strong spot demand and renewed ETF inflows to improve its market outlook [2][3]. The next significant resistance hurdle above $80,000 is identified at $81,300, a level where investors may seek to exit positions [2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Bitcoin Order Book Depth: Where Are the Big Buy and Sell Orders? | Maketomaketo.com
  2. 2Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com
  3. 3Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsmitrade.com
  4. 4Bitcoin market brief 2026-11-03: neutral, BTC $76,816perpscreener.pro

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Recent market movements reflect significant outflows, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs losing $399 million on Monday, November 2, 2026, marking their second consecutive day of outflows. BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $405 million, its largest daily outflow since June. Total net ETF outflows for October reached $515 million [1][2]. Concurrently, Binance customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion since the exchange reopened following a $6.3 billion hack [1].
Upcoming macro and political events are poised to influence market direction. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, were a central focus, with results anticipated overnight [3][4]. A Bloomberg survey of 301 investors showed 29% expected Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end under Republican control, compared to only 8% under Democratic control [3]. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 73.8% chance of a Fed rate hike on December 9, 2026 [3][2]. The Fed had held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting for a hike [3][2]. Further catalysts include November 3 JOLTS job openings, November 4 ISM Services PMI, November 5 Bank of England rate decision (expected hike to 4.0%), November 6 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus ~55,000–65,000), and November 10 U.S. CPI for October [5][3][4][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 03, 2026
  • Expiration: November 10, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin steadies at $76,900 as ETFs lose $399 million and Binance outflows hit $4.7 billioncoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Today: Why BTC Slips Toward $76,000 on 3 Novemberadmiralmarkets.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Faces 3 Big Tests During the First Week of Novemberbeincrypto.com
  4. 4Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  5. 5Crypto’s Week Ahead: A Hacked Exchange, a Hiking Fed and a Midterm Voteblockhead.co

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031800-00: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031745-45: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031730-30: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031715-15: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031700-00: NO (Nov 03, 2026)