BTC 15 min · $77,783.50 target

Bitcoin traded around $77,700 on November 3, facing key resistance. The specific 15-minute Bitcoin price prediction market targeted $77,783.50 for November 3, 6:15–6:30 PM EST, part of a series offered on Robinhood and Kalshi ^[1][2][3]. Nearby markets on the same day included targets of $77,813.65 (5:00–5:15 PM EST) and $77,802.39 (4:30–4:45 PM EST), indicating BTC traded in the $77,700–$77,800 range during the late afternoon and early evening ^[1][2][3]. Bitcoin traded at approximately $77,676 as of 8:45 AM ET on November 3, nearly flat over 24 hours (-0.05%) within a $76,389–$78,254 range ^{[4][5][6][7][8]}. The price dipped to the 200-day EMA at $76,651 during the Asian session before bouncing $1,200 in European trading ^{[4][5][6][7][8]}. By the afternoon, BTC was trading near $77,000–$77,800 ^{[4][5][6][7][8]}.

Bitcoin faced resistance with weak demand and significant ETF outflows. Bitfinex analysts stated Bitcoin's immediate price outlook remained constrained by the $77,000 to $80,000 support zone, where investors acquired roughly 1.05 million BTC ^[9]. The $81,300 level represented the next significant resistance ^[9]. The options market suggested a potential trading range between $74,400 and $81,750 through the November 6 expiry ^[9]. Wintermute warned that Bitcoin needed to reclaim $80,000 with spot demand and ETF inflows to improve its outlook ^[9]. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, their largest daily withdrawal since June 25, and $399 million in outflows on Monday, November 3 ^[9][4][10]. October marked the first month of net ETF outflows since June, following $6.36 billion in combined inflows across July, August, and September ^[9][4][10]. This weak spot demand kept Bitcoin range-bound ^[9][4][10]. According to CryptoQuant, $77,700 was the cost basis for those who bought Bitcoin in the last three months, a level price had held above since August 19 ^[11]. Short-term holders had a cost basis of $75,832 ^[11]. Bitcoin's 50-day EMA sat around $80,800, with resistance at the October 21 high near $84,900 ^[12][10]. Bitcoin was testing support in the $76,264–$76,476 range, aligned with the 200-day EMA ^[12][10]. Below that, the September low of $74,967 was the next reference point ^[12][10]. Polymarket's median for Bitcoin on November 4, 2026, was $77,447, with an interquartile range of $76,132–$78,967 ^[4]. Options expiring on November 4 carried max pain at $77,500 ^[4]. The base case for November 3 was sideways at $76,000–$79,000 (45% probability) ^[4].

Macroeconomic events and market mechanics shaped Bitcoin's price movements. The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, were a major market-moving event ^[13][12]. Polymarket traders gave Democrats a 76.5% chance of sweeping the Senate and 94.5% for the House ^[13][12]. A Democratic sweep could push crypto's market structure law (CLARITY Act) to 2027 or later ^[13][12]. In a Bloomberg survey, 29% of investors expected Bitcoin above $100,000 by year-end under Republican control, while only 8% expected that under Democratic control; 71% expected Bitcoin to finish 2026 lower if Democrats won ^[13][12]. Bitcoin was trading about 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169 on November 3, breaking a pattern of entering the last three US midterm elections in a bearish position ^[14]. DWF Labs noted the first few months after a midterm have historically been choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, but it has been higher 12 months later every time ^[14]. The week of November 3 featured three major central bank decisions: the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden's Riksbank, and the Bank of England ^[12][10]. CME FedWatch showed a 73.8% chance of a Fed hike on December 9 ^[12][10]. Friday's October jobs report was the most important release of the week ^[12][10]. A record $6.3 billion hack at Binance had pushed Bitcoin to a six-week low on Friday, October 31, 2026 ^[12][10]. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 37 on Monday, November 3, in 'fear' territory ^[12][10]. The 15-minute BTC prediction markets resolve based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value being the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration, rounded to two decimal places ^{[1][2][15][16][17][18]}. The market resolves to 'Yes' if this averaged value is at or above the target price ^{[1][2][15][16][17][18]}. Kalshi added crypto perpetual futures in June 2026, listing 11 perpetual markets including Bitcoin, settled in US dollars and priced against CF Benchmarks real-time indices ^[17][18].