Short Answer

The market expects Bitcoin to reach $77,802.39 during the 15-minute interval from 4:30 PM EST to 4:45 PM EST on November 3, pricing this outcome at 68.0%. The model's probability for this target is lower at 56.8%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $77,802 target price appears likely, aligning with afternoon trading near $77,500 max pain.
  • Bitcoin faces bearish pressure from technicals and significant ETF outflows.
  • Real-time order book data indicated a slight buyer preference near the target.

Current Context

Bitcoin trades near its prediction market target, with limited short-term crypto offerings. The Robinhood BTC 15-minute prediction market for November 3, 2026, 4:30–4:45 PM EST, sets a target price of $77,802.39, with resolution dependent on whether the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EST is at least the simple average before 4:30 PM EST [1][2]. Bitcoin traded at $77,676 as of 8:45 AM ET on November 3, 2026, marking a near-flat 24-hour performance (−0.05%) within a $76,389–$78,254 range. The 200-day EMA at $76,651 served as support [3]. Robinhood's 15-minute crypto markets are Bitcoin-focused, offering fewer options than Polymarket (20+), Kalshi (7+), and Crypto.com (5+) [4]. Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance in 2026 shows a −12.44% decline, from $87,568.38 at the year’s open to $76,675.80 at the November 2, 2026 close [5].
Mixed signals on price action suggest a cautious near-term outlook. The base case for November 3, 2026, was sideways trading at $76,000–$79,000 (45% probability), with a pullback to $73,500–$76,000 (32% probability), and a breakout to $79,000–$81,000 (23% probability) [3]. Polymarket’s median for November 4, 2026, 12:00 ET, was $77,625, indicating a 42% chance of Bitcoin being above $78,000 and an 82% chance of being above $76,000, based on $344,204 in bet volume [3]. A bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) near $77,620 was confirmed on the 15-minute timeframe, with sellers controlling short-term order flow and $76,380 identified as the next downside liquidity level [6]. Conversely, a bullish rebound signal emerged from the $76,300–$76,600 support zone, with Bitcoin trading around $77,456 and a potential target of $81,500 if resistance at $78,000 and $79,000 breaks [7]. Kumo's model indicated a slightly bearish signal with 55% confidence, favoring a move toward $76,404.99 if Bitcoin remains below the $78,227.67 resistance pivot [8]. Key technical levels for November 3, 2026, included resistance at $78,250, $79,000, and $79,900, and support at $76,390, $75,590, and $74,000, with Deribit options max pain at $77,500 [3]. CoinGecko’s prediction market data projects a 76.5% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by month-end November 2026, and a 97.4% probability of holding the $77,500 support level [9]. Krown predicted a 90% probability of a green November and a potential run to $87,500 if Bitcoin held its October support level through the U.S. elections [10].
Macro events and market flows contribute to current price uncertainty. U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, were the day’s main event, with polls closing at 7:00 PM ET and results unfolding overnight, introducing uncertainty that kept Bitcoin in a range [3][11]. Roughly $2.2 billion in CME bitcoin shorts (29,220 BTC-equivalent) could fuel a short squeeze if prices rise [12]. Large Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges into cold storage are viewed as bullish for the medium term [12]. Spot BTC ETFs experienced $399 million in outflows on Monday, following $643 million on Friday, with IBIT recording its largest outflow since June. Stablecoins collectively shrank by $11 billion over the month [3]. The $6.3 billion Binance hack complicated positioning data, despite the exchange replacing approximately 95% of stolen funds from reserves and customers withdrawing a net $3.64 billion on the first day of reopened withdrawals [11].
Sources (12)
  1. 1November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:45–4:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Today, Nov 3, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
  4. 4Crypto 15 Minute Markets Overview & Predictions for Todaythelines.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  6. 6BTC/USDT: Bearish CHoCH Confirmed Is $76,380 the Next Liquidity? for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by aminrahmani888 — TradingViewtradingview.com
  7. 7BTCUSD BITCOIN STRONG BUY Bullish Rebound from Target 81,500 for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Ai_Algo-Analysis — TradingViewtradingview.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Signal & Price Prediction Today, Nov 3 – BTCkumocast.io
  9. 9Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  10. 10Bitcoin price prediction for November 3, 2026: 8 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com
  11. 11Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  12. 12Bitcoin price analysis: BTC traders hopeful for post-election gainscoindesk.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market expires at 4:45 PM ET on November 3. A YES resolution occurs if the final price, determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the last minute before expiration, is above $77,802.39. A NO resolution occurs if the final price is at or below the target price of $77,802.39.

Market Discussion

On November 3, 2026, various platforms displayed differing 15-minute BTC targets, with Robinhood showing $77,508.96 at 14% probability of ending above, Kalshi at $77,379.20 with 47% probability, and Flip indicating an 87% chance for BTC above $77,487 [1][2][3][4]. Michaël van de Poppe suggested a Bitcoin long at $75,000 on November 3, 2026, after a rejection at $79,000, anticipating midterm election day as a potential market bottom [5]. Additionally, Saylor's Bitcoin tracker signal on November 3, 2026, indicated the market was pricing in a near-term spot bid under $78,000, with top traders positioned long [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 115 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Futurekalshi.com
  3. 315 min Bitcoin Price Predictions & Odds - OG.comog.com
  4. 4BTC above 77,487 · Flipflip.dodep.capital
  5. 5Michaël van de Poppe: Bitcoin long at $75,000 | Gokhshteingokhshtein.com
  6. 6Saylor again posted a Bitcoin tracker signal, with buy data possibly arriving tomorrow.mexc.fm

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 83 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score84Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score83Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
89Deep

Size fills near the screen price

1 contract

Target Price: $77,802.3989
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.5% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $77,802.39—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,802.3995
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
84Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 89 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 68.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 68.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.5c slippage (~2% of a 68.5c contract)

Target Price: $77,802.39Primary89Market scoreLiquidity89Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 89
Liquidity
89 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.5% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 3, 2026

5. What impact could last-minute news or leaks from the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections have on BTC price action before 4:45 PM EST?

Bitcoin Trading Range$77,500-$77,700 (November 3, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Outflows$399 million (November 2, 2026) [2][5][4]
Democratic House Win Probability95% (Polymarket) [3][6][7]
Last-minute election news could significantly sway Bitcoin's price. Last-minute news or leaks concerning the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections could significantly impact Bitcoin's price action before 4:45 PM EST [8][9][10]. Bitcoin was trading near $77,500-$77,700 in the late afternoon on November 3, 2026, with a target of $77,802.39 being a close consideration given current levels [8][9][10][1][2][3][4]. This period saw earlier volatility driven by general election uncertainty, a recent Binance hack, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3][4].
A probable Democratic sweep may negatively impact the crypto industry. A Democratic sweep in the midterm elections is widely considered the most probable outcome, which analysts view as the least favorable for the crypto industry due to potential regulatory stagnation [4][11][12]. Polymarket data indicated a 95% probability of Democrats winning the House and a 77% chance for a Senate takeover, which could hinder pro-crypto legislation [3][6][7][4][11][12]. This political uncertainty, combined with recent market events, contributed to Bitcoin's fifth consecutive weekly decline and a "fear" reading on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index [2][5][4][13][3]. Such events include approximately $399 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 2, 2026, and $4.72 billion pulled from Binance following an October 29 hack [2][5][4][13][3].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Bitcoin Trades at $77,657 in Nov. 3 Afternoon Price Reading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Rebounds From $76K Amid Sizable ETF Outflows, Liquidationsnews.bitcoin.com
  3. 3Live updates: Bitcoin faces fifth weekly loss as midterm elections weigh on marketscoindesk.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Price Trades Near $77,500 As Midterm Voting Beginsbitcoinmagazine.com
  5. 5Bitcoin steadies at $76,900 as ETFs lose $399 million and Binance outflows hit $4.7 billioncoindesk.com
  6. 6Bitcoin May Be Underpricing Democratic Midterm Victory, Hilbert CIO Warns | TLTtlt.ng
  7. 7Did Bitcoin actually care about US elections? A 7-cycle event study | MarketTrace Blogmarkettrace.ai
  8. 8November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9BTC 15 min · $77,454.10 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 1015 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11If Democrats Win the Midterms and Take Back the White House, What Happens to Bitcoin? VanEck Says Bitcoin Investors Don't Need to Worry. — StockScreenerstockscreener.finance
  12. 12If Democrats Win the Midterms and Take Back the White House, What Happens to Bitcoin? VanEck Says Bitcoin Investors Don't Need to Worry. | The Motley Foolfool.com
  13. 13Bitcoin Today: Why BTC Slips Toward $76,000 on 3 Novemberadmiralmarkets.com

6. How does options positioning on Deribit and CME, specifically the max pain level around $77,500, influence Bitcoin's likely price range on the afternoon of November 3, 2026?

Bitcoin Price Range (Nov 3, 2026 PM)Mid-$77,000s; core trading range $75,500-$79,000 [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Deribit Max Pain (Nov 4, 2026 expiry)$77,500 [5][7]
Average Max Pain-Settlement Gap2.33% (over 484 expiries) [8]
Bitcoin's afternoon trading saw prices hover around the mid-$77,000s. On the afternoon of November 3, 2026, Bitcoin's price was generally observed in the mid-$77,000s, trading within a range of $77,200-$77,500 [1][2][3]. Options positioning indicated multiple max pain levels, including $77,500 for the November 4 Deribit expiry and $79,000 for the weekly expiry according to Maza.trade [5][7][6]. A live snapshot additionally showed a max pain of $78,000, with the largest open interest concentrations identified at the $80,000 and $78,000 strike prices [4]. This collectively placed Bitcoin's core trading range between $75,500 and $79,000 based on these metrics [5][7][6].
A specific $77,802.39 target appears improbable without a significant rally. The target of $77,802.39 for the 4:30-4:45 PM EST window on November 3, 2026, is less likely to be met without a price surge, given its position above the typical afternoon trading range and the nearest max pain levels [1][2][3][4][5]. Earlier 15-minute prediction markets had resolved "Yes" for lower targets such as $77,454.10 and $77,260.48, which were consistent with Bitcoin's broader afternoon trading range [1][2][3]. Furthermore, the DVOL index, hovering near 36.5, suggested that traders did not anticipate substantial price movements [9].
Options market data suggests limited short-term volatility for Bitcoin. Historically, the average discrepancy between max pain and settlement price on Deribit across 484 expiries was 2.33% [8]. The open interest for the November 4 expiry is relatively modest when compared to later expiries, with Deribit notably holding the majority of overall options volume [5][7][10]. For Bitcoin to reach the $77,802.39 target, it would likely require a considerable rally before the November 4 Deribit settlement, scheduled for 08:00 UTC (3:00 AM EST) [1][2][3][4][5].
Sources (10)
  1. 115 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  2. 2BTC 15 min · $77,454.10 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3BTC 15 min · $77,260.48 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4BTC Max Pain Today — Live Deribit Strike | RetailInterestretailinterest.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Options Guide: Put/Call Ratio, Max Pain, IV — TRdesktrdesk.com
  6. 6Quant Daily — BTC options structure, daily · mazamaza.trade
  7. 7Bitcoin Options: Max Pain, Open Interest, Put/Call | In-Cryptoin-crypto.app
  8. 8BTC & ETH Max Pain Dataset: Deribit Expiries vs Settlement (CSV) | INDICIA DESKindiciadesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price Trades Near $77,500 As Midterm Voting Beginsbitcoinmagazine.com
  10. 10Options Bets Turn Defensive Ahead of a Bitcoin Price Showdownnews.bitcoin.com

7. How does the bearish 15-minute 'Change of Character' pattern near $77,620 compare with the bullish rebound signal from the $76,300 support zone for predicting Bitcoin's direction into the late afternoon of November 3, 2026?

Bearish CHoCH Confirmation$77,620 on November 3, 2026 [1][2]
Bitcoin Price (1:46 PM EST)$77,657 on November 3, 2026 [3]
Prediction Market Probability (2:45-3:00 PM EST)14% for BTC at or above $77,508.96 [4]
Bitcoin faces bearish pressure despite a recent counter-trend rebound. A bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) was confirmed near $77,620 on November 3, 2026, indicating a structural shift favoring sellers after rejection from the $78,800 region and the formation of lower highs [1][2]. Despite this bearish signal, Bitcoin experienced a bullish rebound from the $76,300-$76,600 support zone, pushing the price towards $77,456-$77,657 by afternoon [5][6][7][8][3][9][10]. However, this upward movement is considered a counter-trend rally rather than a confirmed meaningful reversal [5][6][7][8][3][9][10].
Overhead resistance and market indicators suggest continued bearish pressure. Critical resistance levels, including the bearish CHoCH at $77,620 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $77,774, cap potential upside between $77,500 and $78,000 [1][5][6][9][10]. A sustained breach above $78,000 is required to validate any significant bullish movement [1][5][6][9][10]. As of 1:46 PM EST on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin traded at $77,657, remaining below the prediction market's target of $77,802.39, which itself falls within a challenging upper bearish resistance area [3][9][11]. Broader market indicators reinforce this bearish outlook, with rising Open Interest alongside falling prices, $398.62 million in spot ETF outflows, flat funding rates, and a sharp drop in the Fear & Greed Index from 51 to 26 over five days [9][11][7].
The bullish rebound remains unconfirmed against strong overhead resistance. The rebound on November 3, 2026, originated from the $76,300-$76,600 area, aligning with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $76,548 and the 200-day EMA at around $76,455 [5][6][7][8][3]. However, this rebound has not been confirmed as a true reversal, with significant resistance, including the aforementioned bearish CHoCH pattern, still intact [1][5][6][9][10]. Consequently, the combination of unconfirmed bullish momentum and robust overhead resistance suggests Bitcoin faces a difficult trajectory to reach its $77,802.39 target by the late afternoon of November 3, 2026 [1][5][6][9][11][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1BTC/USDT: Bearish CHoCH Confirmed Is $76,380 the Next Liquidity? for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by aminrahmani888 — TradingViewtradingview.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Live BTC Structure | BiasNexbiasnex.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Trades at $77,657 in Nov. 3 Afternoon Price Reading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  4. 415 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  5. 5BTCUSD BITCOIN STRONG BUY Bullish Rebound from Target 81,500 for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Ai_Algo-Analysis — TradingViewtradingview.com
  6. 6BTCUSD Price Trends | Brisk Markets Blogbriskmarkets.com
  7. 7Bitcoin price at $76887: BTC tests the 100-day linecryptoticker.io
  8. 8Bitcoin Holds a Critical Midterm-Year Support Zone as $75,000 Comes Into Focus • ProCoinNews.comprocoinnews.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC near the make-or-break level?fxstreet.com
  10. 10FX.co - Bitcoin falls below speculators buy pricefx.co
  11. 11Bitcoin barely holds $76.5K, Gold slips toward $3,900 as Asia sheds another $500B ahead of BoEfxstreet.com

8. What does real-time order book data from Binance and Coinbase reveal about liquidity and potential support/resistance walls near the $77,802 target price on November 3, 2026?

Combined BTC Spot Order Book Imbalance+4.3% bid imbalance favoring buyers [1]
Binance Spot Order Book DominanceApproximately $11M more asks than bids [1]
Largest Ask Wall (21 venues)$40.7M at $77,829 [1]
As of 20:45 UTC on November 3, 2026, combined order book data showed a slight buyer preference across venues. The BTC spot order book across 21 venues exhibited a +4.3% bid imbalance, with $153.7 million in bids against $141.0 million in asks within 2% of the $77,791 mid-price [1]. However, individual exchange dynamics varied; Binance spot data indicated sell-side dominance, with $13.8 million in bids versus $24.8 million in asks within 2% of its $77,821 mid-price, representing roughly an $11 million surplus of asks [1]. Conversely, Coinbase displayed bid-side dominance, showing $20.0 million in bids compared to $17.6 million in asks within 2% of its $77,730 mid-price, equating to approximately a $2.4 million bid surplus [1]. A negative Coinbase premium further suggested that US spot buyers were less aggressive than their offshore counterparts [2].
Significant order walls identify immediate resistance and support levels. Analysis of order books revealed a substantial ask wall at $77,829, totaling $40.7 million in resting orders, with Binance contributing $9.8 million, Bitget $9.1 million, and Kraken $6.0 million to this key resistance point [1]. The largest bid wall, indicating significant support, was observed at $77,752 with $38.6 million in orders, primarily led by Kraken ($7.5 million), Bitfinex ($6.5 million), and Bitget ($5.7 million) [1]. Beyond these immediate order book levels, key resistance points include the 100-day EMA at $77,774, the 24-hour high at $78,254, Friday's expiry max pain at $79,000, and the EMA20/50 band ranging from $79,900 to $80,100 [3][2][4]. Important support levels are found at the 200-day EMA at $76,455, the short-term holder cost basis at $75,809, and the 50-week moving average at $75,592 [3][2][4]. On November 3, 2026, Bitcoin traded within a range of $76,389 to $78,254, with observed buying activity between $77,000 and $80,000 characterized as passive rather than aggressive [2][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Spot Order Book Heatmap: Bid and Ask Walls Across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX | ByKarantelibykaranteli.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Today, Nov 3, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC near the make-or-break level?fxstreet.com
  4. 4Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com

9. At what price level could the reported $2.2 billion in CME bitcoin shorts face a squeeze, and what are the chances of that catalyst occurring before 4:45 PM EST on November 3, 2026?

Total CME Bitcoin Short Positions$2.2 billion [1][2][3][4]
First Short Liquidation Cluster$77,790-$78,050 [1][2][3][4]
Bitcoin Reclaimed on November 3, 2026$77,700 [5]
Price targets for a $2.2 billion Bitcoin short squeeze were identified. Chris Sullivan indicated that $2.2 billion in CME bitcoin short positions could trigger a squeeze at cumulative short liquidation clusters identified between $77,790-$78,050 and $78,530-$78,910 [1][2][3][4]. A break above $78,000 was anticipated to increase momentum towards $78,723 and potentially $79,000 [4]. Sullivan’s sequence for confirming a squeeze involved Bitcoin maintaining the 200-day moving average at $73,202.73, achieving a session close above $78,878, and reclaiming the 50-day moving average at $81,949.56 [2].
On November 3, 2026, Bitcoin’s price movements indicated an active short squeeze. By midday on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin had already reclaimed $77,700, with short sellers experiencing 81% of liquidations in the four hours leading to noon ET, suggesting the squeeze was partially underway [5]. A trader observed the squeeze hitting near $77,807-$77,816 on the same day [6]. By late afternoon on November 3, 2026, Kalshi BTC perpetual futures were trading at $77,816, which was at or slightly above the $77,802.39 target level [7]. This suggests a notable probability that the catalyst for a squeeze had occurred or was actively occurring before 4:45 PM EST on November 3, 2026, given the market was pricing in a modest probability of holding above target levels such as $77,791.88 for the 4:00-4:15 PM EST market [5][8][7][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin price analysis: BTC traders hopeful for post-election gainscoindesk.com
  2. 2America Votes Today With 29,220 CME Shorts Worth $2.2 Billion — Bitcoin's 200-Day at $73,203 Is the Line That Decides — EarnCrypto.devearncrypto.dev
  3. 3Bitcoin ahead of US election: CME short positions and exchange outflowsedgenotes.net
  4. 4Bitcoin Eyes $79K Ahead of U.S. Elections —Short Squeeze Coming? for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by pejman_zwin — TradingViewtradingview.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Reclaims $77.5K as Futures Liquidations Shift to Shorts | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Weekend Pump and Monday Reversal: A 78,600 Short | Trading With Sidhantblogs.tradingwithsidhant.com
  7. 7Kalshi Perpetual Futures | Volume, Open Interest, Funding Rates & Market Data | Loris Toolsloris.tools
  8. 8November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $399 million in outflows on Monday Nov 2, marking a second consecutive day of capital flight; BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $405 million, its largest daily outflow since June [1][2]. Binance customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion since the exchange reopened on Sunday Nov 2, an increase from $3.64 billion that day. These withdrawals followed a hack that drained $40 million from Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin hot wallets [1]. Bitcoin liquidations surged from $69 million to $96 million in 24 hours on Nov 3, with long positions accounting for approximately $76.5 million [2]. Crypto futures trading volume increased 51% to $168.1 billion on Nov 3, while open interest fell 1.63% to $134.9 billion, indicating churn rather than directional positioning amid election uncertainty [1].
The BTC 15-min market with a $77,802.39 target for Nov 3, 2026, 4:30-4:45 PM EST resolves Yes if the CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average before 4:45 PM EST is at or above the target [3][4][5]. Bitcoin traded at $77,657 at 1:46 PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, and near $77,660-$77,835 in the afternoon, making the target attainable but not guaranteed for the specified window [1][2][6]. U.S. midterm elections occurred on Tuesday Nov 3, 2026; control of Congress could shape prospects for pending crypto legislation and industry oversight [7][8]. Binance was expected to publish a full zero-knowledge proof of reserves by Tuesday Nov 3, 2026, a move that could restore investor confidence in exchange solvency [9]. The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report for September was released at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026, with an estimate of 7.13M [7][9]. Furthermore, 26,966 BTC of Deribit options, valued at approximately $2.1 billion, expire on Friday Nov 6 at 08:00 UTC. Calls outnumber puts three to one, with major strikes at $82,000 and $85,000 [9]. As of Nov 2, 2026, nine of twelve tracked coins exhibited a bearish 4h bias, the widest bearish reading in three October snapshots, suggesting broader crypto market weakness [8]. Bitcoin's weekly range as of Sunday Nov 2 spanned $76,325.98 to $81,971.00, with a 4h close outside this range signaling a departure from last week's trading band [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 03, 2026
  • Expiration: November 10, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin steadies at $76,900 as ETFs lose $399 million and Binance outflows hit $4.7 billioncoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Rebounds From $76K Amid Sizable ETF Outflows, Liquidationsnews.bitcoin.com
  3. 3November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:45–2:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4BTC 15 min · $77,454.10 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5BTC 15 min · $77,260.48 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Trades at $77,657 in Nov. 3 Afternoon Price Reading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  7. 7Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  8. 8Midterm Elections and Bitcoin: Week Ahead 2–8 Nov | BiasNexbiasnex.com
  9. 9Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031630-30: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031615-15: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031600-00: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031545-45: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031530-30: YES (Nov 03, 2026)