Short Answer

Bitcoin reaching its $77,813.65 target within the 15-minute window is a genuine toss-up, priced at 51.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $77,813.65 target is pinned by $77,500 options max pain levels.
  • The $77,813.65 target faces headwinds from midterm election uncertainty.
  • Price support between $76,800-$77,000 may stabilize movement toward the target.

Current Context

Bitcoin's 15-minute prediction market targets $77,813.65 for the 5:00–5:15 PM EST window on November 3, 2026, with resolution based on the simple average of 60 CF Benchmarks BRTI prices before expiration [1][2][3]. Bitcoin opened November 3 at $76,699.39, reached a high of $77,897.70, and closed at $77,810.88, marking a 1.43% daily gain [4]. Bitfinex reports resistance near $81,300, with passive buying in the $77,000–$80,000 support zone where investors acquired 1.05 million BTC, up from 738,000 BTC on October 28 [5]. Wintermute indicates Bitcoin needs to reclaim $80,000 with spot demand and ETF inflows, identifying the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next support level [5]. DexTrading prediction markets assigned an 87% probability to Bitcoin remaining in the $76,000–$78,000 range on November 3, 2026, with a 13% probability for the $78,000–$80,000 range, on $124,000 total traded volume, $89,000 in the last 24 hours [6].
Broader market factors influenced Bitcoin's short-term price dynamics. The $6.3 billion Binance hack triggered approximately $1.5 billion in liquidations, 85% of which were leveraged long positions, followed by customers pulling a net $3.64 billion on Binance's first day of reopened withdrawals [5][7]. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, their largest daily withdrawal since June 25, making October the first month of net ETF outflows since June [5]. November 3, 2026, was U.S. midterm election day, with prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi focusing on a potential Democratic takeover of both Congressional chambers, which could stall the Clarity Act and other crypto legislation [8][7]. Bitcoin's implied volatility term structure showed a midterm bump; implied volatility on options expiring November 4 was about 43.5%, notably above the roughly 36% for subsequent expiries, indicating traders priced in increased election-day volatility [9]. CoinGecko data describes overall market sentiment as bearish, despite a 77.5% chance of reaching $80,000 by end of November 2026, with $77,500 support having a 98.0% probability [10].
Analyst views offer varied outlooks for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Krown anticipates Bitcoin remaining in the green through the U.S. midterms if it stays above its October level, projecting a 90% probability of a green November and a potential run to $87,500 before month-end [11]. Rekt Capital contends Bitcoin will not make a new bear market low post-midterms, viewing the current downturn as milder and shorter than prior cycles [11]. Crypto Rover expects Bitcoin to reach the $75,000 support level soon, with $82,000 to $83,000 as the next target if it rebounds [11]. Chris Sullivan, CEO of Hyperion Decimus, flagged approximately 29,220 bitcoin-equivalent short positions on CME, worth $2.2 billion, raising the prospect of a short squeeze [8]. Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, maintains a bullish stance on Bitcoin, with a $180,000 price target for 2027 and a $500,000 base case for 2030 [8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:30–4:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:45–4:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
  5. 5Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com
  6. 6Bitcoin price on November 3? Odds | DexTradingdextrading.com
  7. 7Binance hack fallout, U.S. midterms and jobs report: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  8. 8Bitcoin price analysis: BTC traders hopeful for post-election gainscoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin's 'volatility curve' has a midterm bump: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com
  10. 10Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  11. 11Bitcoin price prediction for November 3, 2026: 8 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market runs from November 3, 5:00 PM EST to 5:15 PM EST. The final market price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before the market's expiration. The specific "To Beat" threshold that would trigger a "YES" or "NO" resolution is not provided on this page.

Market Discussion

On November 3, 2026, prediction markets across Public.com, Robinhood, and Kalshi featured BTC 15-minute targets in the $77,000 range, with Public.com listing a $77,802.39 target showing 87% probability and high volume, closely matching the queried $77,813.65 price [1][2][3]. Community discussions and news indicated Bitcoin was attempting to stabilize, with viewpoints ranging from potential bullish recovery targeting $77,820 and $78,300, to bearish rejection setups at $77,100-$77,180 resistance, and warnings of failed breakouts from $78K [4][5][6][7]. The $77,813.65 price was also referenced as a Bitcoin transaction output value on the blockchain and a current TBTC price, highlighting its active appearance in various crypto data sources [8][9][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 115 min Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2November 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:30–4:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3BTC 15 min · $77,454.10 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Bitcoin / U.S. dollar Forum & Chats (BITSTAMP:BTCUSD) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com
  5. 5BTC on #Hyperliquid 15 min chart 📊 Bitcoin is trying to sta | KuCoinkucoin.com
  6. 6#btcupdown Community Insights & Market Sentiment | Binance Squarebinance.com
  7. 7⚠️ BTC FAILED BREAKOUT — $78K → $75.5K IN 36 HOURS</p><p>BTC tagged $77,957 Friday on 'Hormuz is open' headlines. 36 hours later it's $75,505 and two Indian-flagged tankers have been attacked in the same strait. Gunfire reported. US turning back 23 Iran-linked ships. This wasn't a breakout — it was a short squeeze on a headline that reversed before liquidations cleared. If you chased $76K you're underwater. If you waited, you're about to get a better price.threads.com
  8. 8Address Information - 3FzNVAq2CwArSJmtdiWgPJrcBYQgWHLduy on the Bitcoin Chain - BlockExplorer.comblockexplorer.com
  9. 9Обмен TBTC (Optimism) на SNX (Ethereum) | SideShift.aisideshift.ai
  10. 10Address Information - 1G5wEp1YqiYaGLS48QVobxkRNqcBSYTLXu on the Bitcoin Chain - BlockExplorer.comblockexplorer.com
  11. 11Address Information - bc1qzz52aa7ksz52pgad5xx9nl24pzfnk4puayfard on the Bitcoin Chain - BlockExplorer.comblockexplorer.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,813.65—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $77,813.65—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $77,813.6595
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 50.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 50.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.9c slippage (~2% of a 50.5c contract)

Target Price: $77,813.65Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 3, 2026

5. How might projected outcomes of the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections influence trader sentiment and Bitcoin volatility leading into the 5:00 PM EST resolution window?

Democratic House probability94% (November 3, 2026) [1]
Traders expecting lower BTC with Democrats71% [2]
Bitcoin implied volatility (midterm)37.8% (7-14 day window) [1][3]
Trader sentiment for Bitcoin is notably bearish leading into the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. This sentiment is primarily driven by the high probability of a Democratic sweep, which is broadly perceived as unfavorable for the cryptocurrency industry [1][4][5][2]. Prediction markets on Kalshi, as of November 3, 2026, indicate a 94% chance of Democrats securing the House and 74% for the Senate, positioning a Democratic sweep as the most probable yet least favorable outcome for traders [1][4][5]. A Bloomberg survey further reinforces this outlook, with 71% of traders anticipating a lower year-end price for Bitcoin if Democrats win [2]. This defensive posture is evident in options book data, showing high demand for downside protection, specifically 13-point premiums for five-delta puts among derivatives traders [6].
Bitcoin's implied volatility around the election is lower than previous cycles. Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment regarding a potential Democratic sweep, Bitcoin's implied volatility for the 7-14 day window around the November 3, 2026 election stands at 37.8%, which is considerably lower than the 62.7% observed at a similar point before the 2024 presidential election [1][3]. The correlation between evolving midterm expectations and Bitcoin spot returns has been negligible, averaging -0.02 as of October 26, 2026 [1]. Historically, Bitcoin’s realized volatility tends to increase by 2.3 times in the 30 days following midterm election results before normalizing by day 90, though past "crashes" during midterms were typically attributed to other market events rather than election outcomes themselves [7][8]. Adding to this atypical situation, Bitcoin is currently trading approximately 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169 as of November 3, 2026, marking an unusual bullish setup compared to previous midterm years [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Rate Hikes, Midterms and Prediction Markets | Block Scholes Researchblockscholes.com
  2. 2Bitcoin and the US Midterms: A Trader's Checklist for Nov. 3-11weex.com
  3. 3US Midterm Elections: How Might Bitcoin and S&P 500...bybit.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Price Trades Near $77,500 As Midterm Voting Beginsbitcoinmagazine.com
  5. 5Bitcoin's Election Day Panic: Crypto Traders Fear a Democratic Midterm Sweepbeincrypto.com
  6. 6Bitcoin May Be Underestimating a Democratic Midterm Victory, Hilbert CIO Warns - Crypto Economycrypto-economy.com
  7. 7Did Bitcoin actually care about US elections? A 7-cycle event study | MarketTrace Blogmarkettrace.ai
  8. 8Bitcoin Price Predictions After 2026 Midterms: Deep Dive | PredictEngine | PredictEnginepredictengine.ai
  9. 9Bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com

6. What technical and on-chain evidence supports the $76,800–$77,000 support zone, as identified by Wintermute and Bitfinex, holding through November 3?

50-week moving average support$76,800 (Wintermute) [1][2]
Investors acquired BTC in support zoneApproximately 1.05 million BTC [2]
Bitcoin low on Nov 3, 2026$76,270 [3]
Major firms identified Bitcoin's critical support between $76,800 and $77,000. Wintermute identified the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as a significant Bitcoin support level after the cryptocurrency dropped below the $80,000 threshold [1][2]. Bitfinex Alpha's November 3, 2026, report similarly indicated that Bitcoin's immediate price outlook was confined by the $77,000 to $80,000 support zone [2]. Wintermute also observed the price trading at $77,300 within Bollinger Bands, with a projected lower support level at $76,775 [4]. This technical outlook was further supported by on-chain analysis. CryptoQuant data showed the realized price for the 1-to-3-month holder cohort to be approximately $76,000–$76,500, aligning with a broader technical support zone of $75,000–$78,000 [5][6]. Short-term holders were noted to have a cost basis of $75,832 [6], and investors accumulated roughly 1.05 million BTC within the $77,000 to $80,000 range [2].
Bitcoin's price behavior on November 3 confirmed the support zone's resilience. After an overnight dip to $76,270 on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin recovered to approximately $77,700 by midday, demonstrating that the identified zone successfully held as support [3]. This intraday recovery, alongside a shift in futures liquidations from long to short positions, reinforced the durability of the support [3]. Additionally, multiple prediction markets resolved within the $77,000–$77,800 range, further substantiating the strength of the identified support levels [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1'Heavy' Bitcoin Needs to Reclaim $80,000 to Invalidate Bears: Reportbenzinga.com
  2. 2Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Reclaims $77.5K as Futures Liquidations Shift to Shorts | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  4. 4Wintermute: Bitcoin sieht sich weiteren Abwärtsrisiken gegenüber. - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  5. 5Bitcoin Tests $77K Demand Zone: Can BTC Reclaim $80K or Fall to $70K? - CVJ.AIcvj.ai
  6. 6Bitcoin price threatens $77.7K support loss with recent buyers underwater — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  7. 7BTC 15 min · $77,043.21 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8BTC 15 min · $77,097.63 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Kalshi Markets Resolved in 2026 (4) | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

7. How do the bullish November forecast from analyst Krown and the more cautious outlook from Crypto Rover differ in their underlying technical assumptions?

Krown's Bullish ConditionBitcoin holding above $79,700 [1]
October 2026 Bitcoin PerformanceClosed at -7.2% to -8% [2][3][4]
Crypto Rover's Buy WindowNear November 30, 2026 [5][6][7]
Analyst Krown predicts a bullish November 2026, seeing current movements as a temporary pullback. His forecast for Bitcoin is based on short-to-medium timeframe statistical patterns, interpreting present market action as a correction within a larger uptrend [8]. Krown's technical assumptions for continued bullish momentum require Bitcoin to remain above $79,700, with a daily close above $84,250 or $84,378 strengthening the signal for near-term targets of $87,000 or $88,000, and longer-term targets of $93,000 or $94,000 [1]. Key components of his analytical framework include the daily golden cross, a 5-day EMA reconnect pattern, and a higher-low structure at $75,500 or $76,500, which collectively suggest that any current correction presents a buying opportunity despite observed bearish divergence signals [8][9][10].
Conversely, Crypto Rover maintains a cautious November 2026 outlook, emphasizing long-term cycle timing and trend-confirmation indicators. His perspective suggests the bull market is not yet confirmed [8][11]. This caution is substantially influenced by historical seasonality, noting that Bitcoin has rarely concluded November in the green following a red October, and October 2026 closed with a return of -7.2% to -8% [2][3][4]. Additional technical signals, such as Bitcoin not breaking above the weekly MA50 and the Supertrend indicator remaining bearish, reinforce his view that the current period represents an accumulation or bottoming phase rather than a confirmed uptrend [11][5][7][6].
These differing technical assumptions lead to fundamentally distinct interpretations of the market's current state. Krown views November as a potential reversal point and a strategic buying opportunity, while Crypto Rover perceives it as a bottoming or consolidation month, aligning with his broader prediction for a bear market bottom around October or November 2026 [8][12][13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1What Krown is saying about markets | Kazuhakazuha.ai
  2. 2Crypto Rover: WARNING: 🚨 Bitcoin has rarely closed November in the green… | Atlas Pulse AIatlaspulseai.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Monthly Returnscoinfuty.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Returns — Monthly Heatmap, Annual Bars & ATH Drawdown | SatsAtlas | SatsAtlassatsatlas.com
  5. 5Bitcoin’s 500-Day Halving Rule Flashes Next Buy Signal in November 2026 | Bitget Newsbitget.com
  6. 6Bitcoin’s 500-Day Halving Rule Flashes Next Buy Signal in November 2026 — cryptocurrency, crypto news, bitcoinmasterinvest.info
  7. 7Bitcoin's 500-Day Halving Rule Flashes Next Buy Signal in November 2026 | Criptor.netcriptor.net
  8. 8Why Everyone Is Watching Bitcoin Nowhelpolos.com
  9. 9Bitcoin's 5-Day Clock Has Never Gone 4 Closes. The Reconnect Is $76,500. Then It Goes. - YouTubeyoutube.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Golden Cross Just Happened. History Says a Dip Comes First.youtu.be
  11. 11Bitcoin İçin Boğa Sinyali Gelmedi: Ünlü Analist Uyardı - Kriptofonikriptofoni.com
  12. 12Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom 2026? Top Crypto YouTubers Predictions (Rover, Cowen, Lark Davis & More)youtube.com
  13. 13Crypto Rover has outlined the timeframe for when Bitcoin will hit the bottom. Happy Coin Newshappycoin.news
  14. 14Crypto Rover has outlined the timeframe for when Bitcoin will hit the bottom. Happy Coin Newshappycoin.club

8. What does recent spot Bitcoin ETF flow data and on-chain exchange data from Binance indicate about market liquidity and price pressure following the recent major hack?

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Oct 30)$643.3 million [1]
Binance Net Outflows (Nov 1)$3.64 billion [2][3]
Bitcoin Price (Nov 3)$77,000-$77,800 [4][5][6]
A major hack triggered significant Bitcoin ETF outflows and price drops. Following a significant $6.3 billion hack on October 29, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial net outflows, with $643.3 million recorded on October 30, 2026, marking the largest single-day outflow since June 25 [1][7]. Across Friday and Monday, cumulative net withdrawals for Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.04 billion [8]. Analysts characterized this event as a "sentiment shock" rather than capitulation [1]. Initially, Bitcoin's price fell over 3% to approximately $76,400, leading to $1.6 billion in liquidations [1][9][10].
Binance experienced substantial outflows but showed resilience and reimbursement efforts. Binance, the affected exchange, processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals against $1.01 billion in deposits during the first 9.5 hours after resuming withdrawals on November 1 [2][3]. This resulted in $3.64 billion in net outflows, representing 2.1% of its total assets [2][3]. Despite the security incident, Binance's 2026 Bitcoin reserve flows maintained a positive net balance of 944 BTC, indicating no signs of a bank run [11]. Binance stated that it had replenished approximately 95% of the affected assets and would need to purchase roughly $1.3 billion in various cryptocurrencies to fully top off the reimbursement pool [7][2][3]. The FBI identified North Korean hackers 'TraderTraitor' as responsible for the breach, and over $1.1 billion in USDC associated with the incident was frozen [1][3].
Bitcoin price largely recovered, though future declines remain a concern. Despite the initial price drop, Bitcoin recovered to approximately $78,600 by Monday, November 2, and traded around $77,000-$77,800 on November 3, 2026 [12][4][5][6]. However, Standard Chartered warned that further price declines could occur until more details about the breach emerge and frozen assets are released, suggesting the negative price action still had "some way to go" [9].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Spot bitcoin ETFs see largest daily outflows in four months following record Binance hacktheblock.co
  2. 2Binance records $6 billion outflows after starting withdrawals, less then 4% of total holdingscoindesk.com
  3. 3Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows as withdrawals resumecnbc.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  5. 5Bitcoin (BTC) Price History and Historical Datacoincheckup.com
  6. 6比特币历史价格走势图_比特币历史行情_K线图_历年价格回顾history.btc123.fans
  7. 7Morning Minute: Binance Hack Leads to Mass Outflows While FBI Opens Probe - Decryptdecrypt.co
  8. 8Bitcoin ETFs see more than $1 billion in outflows after Binance hackqz.com
  9. 9Bitcoin (BTC) today: $6B Binance hack hits prices. What next?coindesk.com
  10. 10Binance Hack Sparks Bitcoin Sell-Off, $1.6B In Liquidations: Exchange Uncovers ‘Additional Points Of Breach’finance.yahoo.com
  11. 11Quicktakecryptoquant.com
  12. 12Bitcoin claws back toward $79000 as markets shake off...coindesk.com

9. How does the implied volatility term structure for options expiring around November 4, 2026, align with the market's target price of $77,813.65?

ATM Implied Volatility (Nov 3, 2026)47-48% [1][2][3][4]
Max Pain (Nov 4, 2026 expiry)$77,500 and $78,000 [3][5][6]
1-Standard-Deviation Implied Move (Nov 4-6 expiry)±3.0-3.7% (±$2,300-$2,900) [7][8]
Bitcoin's implied volatility term structure shows a short-lived event premium. For options expiring around November 4, 2026, Bitcoin's at-the-money implied volatility reached approximately 47-48% by election morning on November 3. This represented an event premium of 8-11 volatility points over subsequent expiries [1][2][3][4]. This temporary increase in implied volatility formed a narrow, tall, and short-lived bump concentrated at the November 4 expiry. It was geometric rather than directional, with the premium nearly disappearing by late December, indicating the market priced one day of election uncertainty rather than a regime change [1][2]. The event premium was particularly concentrated in downside protection, as five-percent out-of-the-money puts on the November 4 expiry traded near 55% IV, roughly 10 volatility points over equivalent calls [2][3][4].
Implied volatility findings strongly support the $77,813.65 target price. The one-standard-deviation implied move for the November 4-6 expiry window was approximately ±3.0-3.7%, corresponding to a range of ±$2,300-$2,900. This places the expected trading range between roughly $74,400 and $81,750, which comfortably encompasses the target price [7][8]. Max pain for the November 4, 2026 Bitcoin options expiry was reported at $77,500 and $78,000 [3][5][6]. The $77,813.65 prediction market target sits directly between these max pain levels, suggesting the options market's gravitational pull is centered very near the target price [3][5][6]. On November 3, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,660-$77,860, positioning the $77,813.65 target as a near-at-the-money strike [7][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin's 'volatility curve' has a midterm bump: Crypto Dailycoindesk.com
  2. 2Pricing the Ballot: The Election Event Premium in Bitcoin's Volatility Term Structure - Base58Labsbase58labs.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Options: BTC Implied Volatility, Skew, Put/Call Ratiooptimistfi.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Options Max Pain Price Today, Expiry & Open Interesten.coinotag.com
  5. 5BTC Max Pain Today — Live Deribit Strike | RetailInterestretailinterest.com
  6. 6BTC & ETH Options Max Pain — Live Dashboard | Liquid Stateliquidstate.tech
  7. 7Bitcoin stuck between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand lagsfxstreet.com
  8. 8Where Are the Big Bitcoin Options Bets?bykaranteli.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price 3 November | StatMuse Moneystatmuse.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, introduce significant uncertainty, with polls scheduled to close at 7:00 PM ET and results expected overnight into Wednesday [1]. This event is contributing to the pinning of BTC price action near the $77,500 max pain level for options expiring the next day [1]. Further influence comes from the Deribit options expiry on 3,725 BTC, which also has a max pain point at $77,500, scheduled for November 4, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET (08:00 UTC) [1].
Broader market risk appetite is waning ahead of the election, reflected in options pricing a 10-point put premium for Wednesday morning [1]. Oil prices have risen above $105 following the US strike on Iran (Qeshm Island), and VIX stands at 21.5 [1][2]. These macro conditions add to the bearish pressure on BTC [1]. Within the crypto sector, spot BTC ETFs experienced $399 million of outflows on Monday (Nov 2), following $643 million on Friday (Oct 31), with IBIT reporting its largest outflow since June [1]. Stablecoins contracted by $11 billion over the month, and the Coinbase premium is currently negative [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 03, 2026
  • Expiration: November 10, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (2)
  1. 1Bitcoin Today, Nov 3, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
  2. 2Bitcoin Pares Gains as Iran Retaliates to US Strikes on Larak Island, Oil Prices Risecoingape.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031700-00: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031645-45: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031630-30: NO (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031615-15: YES (Nov 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV031600-00: YES (Nov 03, 2026)