Short Answer

Ethereum hitting the $2,242.66 target within the 15-minute window is unlikely, priced by the market at 38.0%. The model, however, assigns a 49.8% probability to this outcome.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Since last update (about an hour ago): The edge flipped to positive (+19.8pp), driven by the market's significant probability decrease (-15.0pp).
  • Our model's probability increased by +4.8pp, indicating rising conviction in the target price.
  • The market's probability for the target sharply decreased by -15.0pp.
  • The confidence score remained unchanged at 5.0, reflecting stable internal assessments.
  • Target Price $2,242.66 appears likely, supported by significant order book depth.
  • Recent Binance incident and whale inflows suggest short-term downward pressure.

Current Context

The primary 15-minute ETH contract shows a bullish bias. For the October 31, 2026, 3:00–3:15 AM EDT contract, Public.com displayed a 73% Yes probability and 27% No probability, with a target price of $2,242.09 and reported event volume of $140,560.44 [1]. The contract defines "Yes" as the average of the final 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI before 3:00 AM EDT being at least as high as the corresponding average before 2:45 AM EDT [1]. The $2,242.66 figure in the request should not be treated as the exact settlement target; the accessible Public page displayed $2,242.09, and settlement depends on the designated benchmark or venue rule, not a generic exchange quote [1]. A Future aggregation page for the same event indicated a leading outcome around 50.5% but reported zero volume and only $7.22K liquidity, representing weaker evidence [2].
Broader prediction markets suggest ETH near $2,248 with bearish near-term risk. 4Search reported a $2,248 median for October 31, a 92% probability for ETH finishing in the $2,200–$2,300 range, and an 82% probability of reaching $2,250 [3]. TokenPost reported only 3% odds for ETH reaching $2,400 by October 31 under a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute-candle rule [4]. Near-term market risk was bearish on October 30. FXStreet reported ETH around $2,230 after a move from roughly $2,330 to $2,177. This period saw over $350 million in ETH-futures liquidations and negative funding of -0.0105. Technical support is identified near $2,205, followed by approximately $2,107 [5].
Downside catalysts and mixed expert views influence the longer-term outlook. Reported downside catalysts include a $6.3 billion Binance hack, weak U.S. spot-ETH ETF flows, and October ETF outflows of about $1.45 billion. The Glamsterdam/Hoodi testnet upgrade was also delayed over review of EIP-8037 [5][6]. Longer-horizon expert views were mixed. Citigroup reportedly raised its 12-month ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028, citing expected crypto ETF inflows and improving macro conditions [7]. Conversely, analyst Ted Pillows warned that a daily close below $2,350 could expose ETH to $2,200–$2,250. Arthur Hayes was reported to have sold $22.28 million across altcoin positions, including ETH [8]. A separate hourly ETH market, resolving from Binance ETH/USDT for the October 31 midnight ET candle, finished Down with a stated price-to-beat of $2,240.00 [9]. This is contextual evidence, distinct from the specified 3:00–3:15 AM EDT contract [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 223:50:48 Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ETfuture.news
  3. 3Ethereum price on October 31: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
  4. 4Polymarket Gives Ether (ETH) 3% Odds of Reaching $2,400 by Oct. 31 | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  5. 5Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH drops near $2,200 after Binance hackfxstreet.com
  6. 6Ethereum Price Prediction: Where Could ETH Be by the End of October? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  7. 7Why Citi raised Ethereum forecast to $3,028fxstreet.com
  8. 8Ethereum Price Faces $2,200 Downside Test as Arthur Hayes Sells ETH, ENA, and UNI - The Coin Republicthecoinrepublic.com
  9. 9prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market for "ETH 15 min" expires on October 31, 3:15 AM EDT. The specific price target that determines a 'YES' or 'NO' resolution is not explicitly stated in the provided content. Settlement will be based on the average of 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the final minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

The requested $2,242.66 ETH 15-minute target was not found as an exact indexed contract, though a similar $2,242.78 or above target was displayed on Robinhood for the October 31, 2026, 10:15–10:30 PM EDT contract with 0% Yes probability [1][2]. These short-lived markets generally resolve by comparing 60-second average ETH values at the window's close against its opening value, with trader commentary often focusing on automation and fees, such as Polymarket's introduction of taker fees for 15-minute crypto markets in January 2026 [3][4][5]. Broader technical snapshots near this price point were mixed, but the available research does not identify a specific social-media trader consensus for the exact $2,242.66 target [6][7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Buy Ethereum - ETH Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  2. 2Crypto ETH Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3ETH Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
  4. 4Ethereum Up or Down 15 Minutes Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/01/06/polymarket-adds-taker-fees-to-15-minute-crypto-markets/cryptotimes.io
  6. 6Crypto Technical Screener & RSI Heatmap · Tick.Markettick.market
  7. 7Ethereum Price Prediction 2026-2030: Future ETH Forecastcoincheckup.com
  8. 8ETH Up or Down 5mpolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score55Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $2,242.6665
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $2,242.66—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $2,242.6695
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
55Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 46.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.2c slippage (~5% of a 46.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $2,242.66Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. What catalysts in the derivatives market, such as options expiries or liquidation events on Binance and Bybit, could drive ETH price action between 2:45 AM and 3:00 AM EDT on October 31?

ETH Daily Options Expiry08:00 UTC (4:00 AM EDT) on October 31, 2026 [1]
Front-Expiry Open Interest173,020 ETH or $386.8M [1][2][3]
Put/Call OIabout 1.70 [1][2][3]
Potential catalysts for ETH price action between 2:45 AM and 3:00 AM EDT on October 31 include pre-expiry dealer hedging related to the daily options expiry and the risk of long-liquidation cascades, particularly on Binance and Bybit [1][4][5][6]. While there is no identified exact options-expiry timestamp within this 15-minute interval, these factors suggest elevated two-sided jump risk [1][7]. The ETH daily options expiry is scheduled for 08:00 UTC (4:00 AM EDT) on October 31, approximately one hour after the queried window [1]. Dealer hedging and positioning for this expiry, whose settlement uses a 07:30–08:00 UTC TWAP, could influence ETH prior to 4:00 AM EDT [1].
Substantial ETH options open interest suggests key price levels for hedging. Front-expiry open interest was significant, reporting 173,020 ETH or $386.8M for the 08:00 UTC expiry [1][2][3]. The reported put/call open interest ratio was approximately 1.70, indicating more puts than calls and a downside-skewed profile [1][2][3]. Reference levels around the expiry included ETH spot around $2,242–$2,274 and front-expiry max pain near $2,280, with another dashboard showing October 31 max pain at $2,280 and November 2 max pain at $2,240 [8][3]. These levels could act as short-term magnets or hedging pivots, though max pain is not considered a reliable directional forecast [8][3].
A heavily long-biased ETH derivatives market risks a downside liquidation cascade. Liquidation data reveals a heavily long-biased ETH derivatives market [4]. Around 00:14–00:15 UTC, $75.35M of ETH liquidations were reported over 24 hours, with $66.72M in longs, and Binance alone accounted for $74.66M [4]. Around 04:00 UTC, Binance showed $5.24B in ETH open interest and Bybit $1.81B, with approximately 74.5% and 74.3% of accounts long, respectively, and negative funding [5][6]. The most plausible liquidation catalyst during the 2:45–3:00 AM EDT window is a downside cascade if ETH breaks nearby support, as crowded longs and large open interest on Binance and Bybit could produce forced selling [4][5][6]. The overall positioning data modestly favors downside break risk below the $2,242.66 target, though it does not provide a high-confidence directional prediction [1][8][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Crypto Options Expiries: BTC & ETH Expiry Calendarperpfinder.com
  2. 2Ethereum Options Expiry: Max Pain $2,350 — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com
  3. 3Crypto Options | Max Pain, DVOL, Put/Call Ratio | Xoomar Pulsexoomar.com
  4. 4Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations: Long & Short Data | BitcoinWisdombitcoinwisdom.io
  5. 5Binance vs Bybit Crypto Derivatives Data | BitcoinLeveragebitcoinleverage.com
  6. 6Live Crypto Liquidations: BTC, ETH & SOL | Yieldoyieldo.me
  7. 7October 31, 2026: ETH 15 min · 2:45–3:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8BTC, ETH & Altcoin Max Pain, Put/Call & IV Skew | Fuelmapsfuelmaps.io

6. What does on-chain data, specifically exchange netflows and whale wallet movements tracked by Glassnode and CryptoQuant, indicate about buying or selling pressure on Ethereum ahead of the October 31 resolution?

Net ETH Inflow (7 days)+64.28K ETH (TrackWhale, October 31 snapshot) [1]
ETH Transfers > $10M-160,089 ETH (Glassnode, October 29) [2]
Large Wallet Withdrawals12,902 ETH ($29.09M) by two large wallets [3][4]
Ethereum on-chain data shows mixed signals with a bearish tilt. The latest broad whale-flow snapshot reveals a net exchange inflow, which typically indicates an increase in potential sell-side supply. Specifically, TrackWhale's October 31 snapshot reported a net inflow of +64.28K ETH over a seven-day period, with 519.17K ETH entering and 454.89K ETH leaving tracked exchanges [1]. Analytics from Glassnode and CryptoQuant generally interpret sustained positive net exchange flow as an increase in exchange-resident, potentially sellable supply [1][5][6][7][8]. CryptoQuant's Top-10 inflow metric, designed to identify concentrated whale deposits, historically suggests a heightened short-term selling risk, collectively indicating a modestly bearish pressure or capped upside [6][8].
Whale wallet movements provide counter evidence of accumulation. While exchange inflows suggest bearish pressure, whale-specific evidence is mixed and includes a notable accumulation component [3][4]. Glassnode's October 29 data showed net outflows across all size buckets, including -160,089 ETH for transfers exceeding $10M, indicating funds moving off exchanges [2]. Furthermore, Lookonchain reported 12,902 ETH ($29.09M) associated with two large wallets, with 3,377 ETH withdrawn from OKX by a newly created wallet (0x2908), which typically signifies accumulation [3][4]. However, it is important to note that many large transfers around this time were often exchange wallet rotations, meaning raw whale-transfer headlines should not automatically be seen as directional buying or selling [9].
The overall pressure remains mixed, not strongly directional. Despite the conflicting signals from exchange netflows and whale movements, the overall conclusion points to mixed-to-slightly bearish pressure ahead of the October 31 resolution. This indicates a lack of high-confidence directional prediction regarding Ethereum's buying or selling pressure [1][5][6][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Ethereum Exchange Inflows & Outflows | ETH Netflow | TrackWhaletrackwhale.io
  2. 2ETH Exchange Netflow Volume by Size All Exchanges - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  3. 3Ethereum Whales Make Big Moves as $29M Changes Handscoinfomania.com
  4. 4Whales accumulate 12,902 $ETH worth $29.09M amid market activity - Lookonchain - Looking for smartmoney onchainlookonchain.com
  5. 5ETH ETH: Exchange Deposit and Withdrawal Volume [ETH] Chart - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  6. 6Ethereum: Exchange Netflow (Total) - All Exchanges | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  7. 7Live Whale Deposits & Withdrawals, Exchange Netflow | SigBTCsigbtc.pro
  8. 8Ethereum: Exchange Inflow (Top10) | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  9. 9Free Ethereum Whale Tracker | Live ETH Transfers | TrackWhaletrackwhale.io

7. How do the short-term bearish technical indicators cited by FXStreet contrast with the longer-term bullish price targets from analysts at Citigroup for Ethereum's trajectory through October 31?

Citigroup 12-month ETH target$3,028 [1][2]
FXStreet immediate ETH support$2,205 [3]
FXStreet ETH RSI (Oct 24-30)Near 29 [3][4][5]
Short-term bearish technical indicators for Ethereum contrast with longer-term bullish price targets. This apparent contradiction arises from materially different time horizons; immediate future market movements may be influenced by bearish momentum and support tests, while appreciation over the following year is supported by anticipated ETF flows and broader macro assumptions [1][6][3][2].
FXStreet indicated a short-term bearish outlook for Ethereum from October 24–30. During this period, ETH fell toward $2,200, remained below key exponential moving averages, experienced negative futures funding, and faced heavy long liquidations. Technical indicators showed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 29 and Stochastic near 17. Identified immediate support levels for ETH were approximately $2,205, followed by $2,107 and $1,972, suggesting immediate-to-near-term downside risk around October 31 [3][4][5][6].
Citigroup's longer-term forecast for Ethereum remained bullish, despite the short-term indicators. On October 1, Citigroup raised its 12-month ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028. This updated forecast was based on renewed but gradual ETF inflows, favorable macro conditions, and stronger overall crypto activity. It is important to note that this $3,028 projection represents a 12-month target extending to roughly October 2027, rather than a prediction for the ultra-short-term October 31 session. Consequently, Citigroup's annual target has little direct bearing on very short-term market resolutions [1][2][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Citigroup raises 12-month bitcoin (BTC) target to $113,000 as ETF inflows resumecoindesk.com
  2. 2Why Citi raised Ethereum forecast to $3,028fxstreet.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH drops near $2,200 after Binance hackfxstreet.com
  4. 4What are Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP at risk of extending bearish streak?fxstreet.com
  5. 5Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH tests $2,355 as ETF outflows growfxstreet.com
  6. 6Ethereum Price Targets: From Citi's $3,028 to VanEck's $6,000. Currently, ETH Is at $2,617. Which Target Makes Sense? - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  7. 7October 31, 2026: ETH 15 min · 2:45–3:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

8. Where can traders access real-time data for the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI, the specific index used for settlement, to track its deviation from major spot exchange prices?

Primary real-time accessKalshi's authenticated CF Benchmarks Value Feed via WebSocket [1][2]
Real-time update frequencyRoughly once-per-second, or up to five updates per second on supported ETH indices [1][2]
Institutional data accessCME Group's website, Market Data Platform, or DataMine, or licensed third-party providers [3][4][5]
Traders can primarily access real-time data for the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI through Kalshi's authenticated CF Benchmarks Value Feed via WebSocket [1]. This feed is considered the most practical route for direct, real-time access, providing roughly once-per-second updates specifically for the ETHUSD_RTI index, and up to five updates per second for other supported ETH indices. It exposes the exact settlement index, delivering parsed value_usd along with source timestamps [1][2].
Alternative access routes include REST and institutional platforms. Beyond the WebSocket feed, Kalshi also offers a CF Benchmarks REST passthrough service for accessing current or historical ETHUSD_RTI data [6][7]. For licensed institutional or production use, direct access to ETHUSD_RTI is available through CME Group's official website, Market Data Platform, or DataMine. Additionally, access can be obtained via licensed third-party providers, though a Market Data License Agreement is required for these options. The CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) aggregates Ether-USD order data from its constituent exchanges and is published approximately once per second, operating on weekends and holidays as well [3][4][5].
Tracking ETHUSDRTI is vital for prediction market analysis. For 15-minute prediction-market contracts, it is crucial to track the ETHUSDRTI alongside other major spot feeds such as Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken to accurately assess any basis or deviation. Directly comparing a major exchange's ETH/USD spot chart with a contract's target can be misleading because the contract settles based on the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI methodology and its applicable averaging rules, rather than relying on a single exchange price print [6][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1https://docs.kalshi.com/websockets/cfbenchmarks-valuedocs.kalshi.com
  2. 2CF Benchmarks 5Hz Value Feed - API Documentationdocs.kalshi.com
  3. 3CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4FAQ: CME CF Single-Asset Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  5. 5Ether Pricing Products Frequently Asked Questionscmegroup.com
  6. 6Crypto Markets | Kalshi Help Centerhelp.kalshi.com
  7. 7CF Benchmarks REST Passthrough - API Documentationdocs.kalshi.com
  8. 8How Kalshi Settles 15-Minute ETH Contractspredictionmarketspicks.com

9. Does order book depth on Coinbase and Binance indicate significant buy or sell walls around the $2,242 price level that would support or resist a price increase before 3:00 AM EDT?

Largest nearby bid$10.6M at $2,240.63 (TerminalGremlin snapshot 01:50 UTC) [1][2][3]
Binance bid-side advantage$3.37M (Binance snapshot 00:20 EDT) [2]
Largest ask resistance$10.08M at $2,245.12 [1][2][3][4]
Order book depth on Coinbase and Binance suggests potential price support around $2,242. This indicates a mildly bullish or defensive market sentiment, yet the signal is not strong enough to confidently predict that the price will touch or exceed $2,242.66 before 3:00 AM EDT [1][2][3][4].
Specific data points reinforce bid-side liquidity near the $2,242 level. A TerminalGremlin snapshot at 01:50 UTC showed a substantial bid of $10.6 million at $2,240.63, significantly larger than the nearest ask, alongside another notable bid of $10.31 million at $2,238.39. Additionally, a Binance spot snapshot at 00:20 EDT revealed a $3.37 million bid-side advantage, comprising $9.92 million in buy orders versus $6.55 million in sell orders at ETH $2,240.80. Furthermore, a six-venue snapshot at 20:00 UTC indicated a slightly bid-heavy depth, with $25.7 million in bids against $22.6 million in asks within ±0.5% of the mid-price [1][2][3].
Conversely, resistance points and data limitations temper the bullish outlook. Clusters of asks immediately above $2,242.66 are identified as potential resistance points, which could prevent a clean price break. Notable resistance includes $5.64 million at $2,242.87 and $10.08 million at $2,245.12. It is important to note that order-book walls represent visible resting liquidity but do not guarantee execution, as these orders can be cancelled. Additionally, data completeness varies, with Binance depth beyond 500 basis points potentially being incomplete, while Coinbase provides more comprehensive full-book data. Therefore, these walls should be viewed as potential support or resistance rather than definitive directional signals [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1ETH · TerminalGremlinterminalgremlin.com
  2. 2Binance Spot Ether (ETH) Order Book Shows $3.37 Million Bid Lead | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  3. 3BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE and AVAX spot order book heatmap across six exchangesfuelmaps.io
  4. 4ETH Order Book Heatmap, Order Flow and Liquidations | EdgeDepthedgedepth.com
  5. 5ETH Spot Orderbook Depth All Exchanges - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  6. 6Ethereum Spot Orderbook Largest Walls Chart — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The immediate market environment for the Oct. 31, 2026, 3:00–3:15 AM EDT window is shaped by several bearish factors. A reported $6.3 billion Binance security incident on Oct. 30 led to ETH falling roughly 4% and briefly trading near $2,170–$2,177 [1]. This incident triggered approximately $1.57 billion in overall crypto liquidations, with ETH liquidations reaching about $361 million [2][3]. Derivatives data indicates a bearish trend; ETH open interest fell 5.8%, market sell orders predominated, and ETH perpetual funding reportedly weakened or turned negative [4][2][3]. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $155.85 million in net outflows on Oct. 30, following five consecutive outflow sessions [4].
Key technical levels are $2,200–$2,220 and $2,204 as near-term support, with $2,256–$2,384 acting as resistance [4][3][5]. A decisive loss of $2,200 would favor downside continuation, while holding this level could support a relief bounce [4][3][5]. The Ethereum Glamsterdam testnet activation was postponed due to security concerns around gas-pricing proposals EIP-8037/EIP-8038, removing a near-term upgrade catalyst [4][6][7]. Potential bullish catalysts, such as containment of the Binance exploit or stabilization of ETF flows, could trigger a sharp short squeeze [1][4][6]. However, no source establishes that these events would occur during the specified 3:00–3:15 AM EDT window [1][4][6].
The base-case assessment for the 3:00–3:15 AM EDT contract leans bearish-to-neutral rather than strongly bullish, given the impact of the Binance shock, ETF outflows, weak derivatives positioning, and the delayed upgrade [1][4][2][3][8]. A public market for the 2:45–3:00 AM EDT-to-3:00 AM EDT ETH move showed approximately 73% Yes and 27% No, with about $140,560 volume; this is a market-implied probability and can change [8]. The principal countercase is a volatility-driven rebound if the $2,200–$2,220 support holds and hack-containment news triggers short covering [1][4][2][3][8]. Confidence is limited due to the 15-minute ETH outcome's noise-sensitivity and the time-varying nature of market quotes [1][4][2][3][8]. Beyond this specific window, macro volatility risks include the Oct. 30/31 Bank of Japan decision and U.S. Employment Cost Index and Chicago PMI data [9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 31, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bitcoin, ether price: Binance hack rattles crypto marketscnbc.com
  2. 2BTC price falls to $76,400 Binance hack triggers $1.57 billion in liquidations: Crypto Markets Todaycoindesk.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH drops near $2,200 after Binance hackfxstreet.com
  4. 4Ethereum price under pressure as ETF outflows reach 155.85 million USDad-hoc-news.de
  5. 5News Pageh5.ainvest.com
  6. 6Ethereum Glamsterdam Scaling Faces Hurdles: Will ETH Retest $1,500?tradingkey.com
  7. 7Ethereum, Bitcoin Face Fed, Upgrade, Expiry Week | Adalyticaadalytica.com
  8. 8ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions, Coinbase earnings: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  10. 10Crypto Market Update: Friday Agenda Brings ECI, Chicago PMI, Oil Earnings, and Fed Remarks | CryptoCompasscryptocompass.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETH15M-26OCT310300-00: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26OCT310245-45: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26OCT310230-30: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26OCT310215-15: YES (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26OCT310200-00: NO (Oct 31, 2026)