Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 11pm EDT?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs show sustained institutional demand. Cumulative net flow trends for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs through Q4 2025 indicate a sustained and resilient level of institutional demand. This persisted even after the Bitcoin halving event and through a period potentially encompassing a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle. Throughout 2025, these ETFs collectively attracted significant capital, demonstrating ongoing investor interest in gaining Bitcoin exposure via regulated financial products ^[3]. This consistent accumulation suggests that institutions increasingly perceive Bitcoin as a viable asset class, with its appeal either independent of or potentially enhanced by evolving macroeconomic conditions.

ETFs attracted significant capital despite fund variations. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced total net inflows of approximately $21.3 billion throughout 2025, according to a final tally from Farside Investors ^[1]. While the overall market trend remained positive, individual fund performances showed variation; for instance, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) registered estimated net outflows of $3.7 billion in 2025 ^[2]. However, substantial inflows into other newly launched ETFs more than compensated for these outflows from certain products. The market's ability to absorb such redemptions from legacy products while still achieving significant net positive inflows overall highlights the robust and sustainable nature of institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure, driven by new capital entering the market ^[3]. These trends indicate a growing integration of Bitcoin into institutional portfolios, reflecting a long-term strategic interest in the asset.

The April 2024 halving significantly reduced the Bitcoin network's hash rate. This event led to an immediate contraction of approximately 17% in the first week, marking the sharpest post-halving drop observed since 2020 and a more pronounced decline compared to earlier cycles ^[1]. Historically, following an initial dip as less efficient operations become unprofitable ^[4], the hash rate consistently recovers and trends upward within 18 months post-halving. This recovery is typically fueled by the deployment of more efficient mining hardware and an appreciating Bitcoin price, a pattern that is also anticipated for the current cycle ^[2].

Miner profitability metrics also follow a predictable post-halving trend. The Puell Multiple, a metric assessing miner revenue by comparing the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its 365-day moving average ^[5], characteristically dips immediately after halvings due to the reduction in block rewards ^[3]. This initial decline can signal a period often referred to as 'miner capitulation' ^[5]. However, as Bitcoin's price typically appreciates in the subsequent months, the Puell Multiple historically recovers, often reaching high profitability zones within the 18-month period ^[3]. This consistent cycle of an initial decline followed by a recovery in miner profitability is expected to repeat after the April 2024 halving.

By the end of 2025, the United States enacted a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory framework. The GENIUS Act of 2025 (Public Law 119-27, S.1582) established this framework for digital assets, primarily focusing on stablecoin issuance ^[1]. This act introduces a robust regulatory regime for "payment stablecoins," mandating that issuers maintain 100% reserve requirements fully backed by highly liquid assets ^[4]. The framework also includes specific licensing requirements for stablecoin minting, with the goal of enabling regulated payment stablecoins in the U.S. by December 2025 ^[4].

The new framework significantly impacts institutional digital asset custody solutions. The GENIUS Act's mandated 100% reserve requirement directly influences the infrastructure and operational practices necessary for holding and verifying these reserves ^[5]. Adding to this regulatory clarity, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) confirmed in 2025 that national banks and federal savings associations are authorized to engage in crypto-asset custody and execution services ^[3]. This dual development of legislative and regulatory clarity enhances the legitimacy and operational scope for regulated financial institutions to provide secure and compliant custody services for digital assets, especially for the newly regulated payment stablecoins ^[5].

On-chain analytics platforms help monitor the dynamics of dormant Bitcoin supply. Tools like Glassnode's "Old Supply Net Position Change" track the aggregate shifts in Bitcoin held by these long-inactive addresses, indicating whether accumulation or spending is occurring ^[1]. Additionally, the "Ancient Supply Last Active 5yr+" metric quantifies the total Bitcoin supply untouched for five years or more, while "Ancient Supply Spent Volume 5yr+" identifies movements of these long-dormant coins ^[4]. Although specific numerical figures for the net change in 7+ year dormant supply are not detailed in the available research, the movement of old Bitcoin supply is an observed trend, with some older holdings notably transferring into Bitcoin ETFs ^[2].

Evidence for old supply moving to exchanges during specific rallies is inconclusive. Glassnode's "Bitcoin Long-Term Holder to Exchanges (Volume) All Exchanges" metric helps identify when experienced investors transfer their holdings to exchanges, often signaling a potential intent to sell ^[5]. However, the provided research does not offer explicit data for old supply moving to exchanges specifically during price rallies exceeding $100,000. A news report suggests a "$100K Mirage," implying that Bitcoin's rally may not be supported by robust on-chain strength, which could indicate limited long-term holder accumulation or even distribution ^[6]. Moreover, overall Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped below 2.7 million, reflecting a broader trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges rather than accumulating there ^[3].

The December 2025 expiry on Deribit involved a substantial Bitcoin options event, valued at approximately $28.5 billion ^[1]. Leading up to this significant expiry, Bitcoin was observed nearing a potential breakout from the $85,000-$90,000 range, indicative of a possible increase in volatility as market participants adjusted their positions ^[4]. However, the research did not provide specific open interest or implied volatility data for call options with strike prices exceeding $150,000 or put options below $50,000 for this period.

March 2026 expiry focused on $75,000 amidst call dominance. Similarly, the March 2026 expiry on Deribit featured a considerable Bitcoin options expiry, estimated between $13 billion and $14 billion ^[2]. For this period, a notable concentration of open interest indicated $75,000 as a "price magnet," with traders reportedly accumulating bets around this particular strike price ^[2]. While the broader Bitcoin derivatives market demonstrated overall call dominance and total open interest surged to $43.75 billion ^[3], the provided sources do not specify the open interest or implied volatility for call options above $150,000 or put options below $50,000 for the March 2026 expiry.