Topic tracker · Crypto

Bitcoin price Above/below

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 65 so far (0 live, 65 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Bitcoin price Above/below markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated July 15, 2026

Series history

Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.

MarketClosedModel vs marketActions
BTC price on Jul 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT? July 17, 2026 98.8% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jul 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT? July 10, 2026 97.6% vs 98.0% Report →
BTC price on Jul 3, 2026 at 11am EDT? July 3, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jul 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT? July 3, 2026 99.2% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 26, 2026 at 1am EDT? June 26, 2026 97.7% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 17, 2026 at 10pm EDT? June 18, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 16, 2026 at 8am EDT? June 16, 2026 99.1% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 19, 2026 at 5pm EDT? June 19, 2026 99.1% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT? June 16, 2026 100.0% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 16, 2026 at 7am EDT? June 16, 2026 99.9% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 16, 2026 at 12am EDT? June 16, 2026 99.0% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 11, 2026 at 7pm EDT? June 11, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT? June 12, 2026 99.0% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 11, 2026 at 3pm EDT? June 11, 2026 99.0% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 5, 2026 at 12pm EDT? June 5, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 5, 2026 at 10am EDT? June 5, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 3, 2026 at 11am EDT? June 3, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 3, 2026 at 10am EDT? June 3, 2026 99.0% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 3, 2026 at 9am EDT? June 3, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 7pm EDT? June 2, 2026 98.6% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 6pm EDT? June 2, 2026 97.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT? June 2, 2026 98.4% vs 97.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT? June 2, 2026 99.5% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 3pm EDT? June 2, 2026 98.4% vs 99.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 2, 2026 at 2pm EDT? June 2, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
BTC price on Jun 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT? June 5, 2026 94.4% vs 95.0% Report →
BTC price on May 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? May 23, 2026 99.2% vs 99.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 19, 2026 at 8am EDT? May 19, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 19, 2026 at 1am EDT? May 19, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 11, 2026 at 1pm EDT? May 11, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 7, 2026 at 4pm EDT? May 7, 2026 99.5% vs 99.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT? May 7, 2026 100.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 4, 2026 at 1am EDT? May 4, 2026 99.4% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on May 1, 2026 at 2pm EDT? May 1, 2026 98.7% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 29, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 29, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 29, 2026 at 4pm EDT? April 29, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 28, 2026 99.4% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 26, 2026 at 10pm EDT? April 27, 2026 99.1% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 24, 2026 99.2% vs 98.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 11pm EDT? April 17, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 16, 2026 99.4% vs 99.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 11pm EDT? April 16, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 3pm EDT? April 15, 2026 98.8% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 15, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 17, 2026 98.6% vs 97.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 14, 2026 at 6pm EDT? April 14, 2026 99.4% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 14, 2026 99.4% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 13, 2026 at 11am EDT? April 13, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 13, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 13, 2026 99.6% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 13, 2026 at 10am EDT? April 13, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 12, 2026 at 12am EDT? April 12, 2026 98.6% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 3pm EDT? April 10, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 1pm EDT? April 10, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 10, 2026 99.0% vs 99.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 12pm EDT? April 10, 2026 99.0% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? April 8, 2026 99.1% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 7, 2026 at 6pm EDT? April 7, 2026 99.3% vs 0.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT? April 3, 2026 98.6% vs 98.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT? March 27, 2026 98.6% vs 99.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Mar 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT? March 20, 2026 99.7% vs 98.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 10pm EST? February 20, 2026 100.0% vs 70.5% Report →
Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? February 13, 2026 0.0% vs 82.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST? February 13, 2026 28.0% vs 28.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST? February 5, 2026 0.0% vs 8.0% Report →
Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? February 5, 2026 14.5% vs 14.5% Report →

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