BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST?
Short Answer
Bitcoin's price at 8pm EST on November 1, 2026, is confirmed at $77,400 or above, based on observed prices near $77,800. The market prices this outcome as likely at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- BTC price of $77,800 at 8 p.m. EST confirms levels $77,400 to $77,800 are met.
- This $77,800 valuation implies higher price thresholds above this value are unmet.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $78,300 or above | 16.0% | 4.0% | The observed Bitcoin price of $77,800 on November 1, 2026, was below this threshold. |
| $78,500 or above | 5.0% | 0.0% | The observed approximate Bitcoin price on November 1, 2026, was $77,800, falling below this threshold. |
| $78,200 or above | 31.0% | 19.0% | The observed Bitcoin price of $77,800 on November 1, 2026, was below this threshold. |
| $78,000 or above | 63.0% | 51.0% | The observed Bitcoin price of $77,800 on November 1, 2026, was below this threshold. |
| $78,100 or above | 48.0% | 36.0% | The observed Bitcoin price of $77,800 on November 1, 2026, was below this threshold. |
Current Context
Robinhood's prediction market implied a BTC price near $78,200-$78,300 for November 1, 2026, 8:00 p.m. EST. The platform listed threshold contracts at $78,100 or above (79¢), $78,200 or above (64¢), $78,300 or above (48¢), $78,400 or above (33¢), and $78,500 or above (21¢) [1]. Settlement for this market was based on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, an average of 60 prices from the final minute before expiration [1]. The estimated BTC price at the 8:00 p.m. EST expiration, which corresponds to approximately 00:00 UTC on November 2 due to daylight time, clustered around $78,200-$78,300 [2][1]. Nearby observed BTC spot prices were approximately $77,850 at 22:02 UTC and $77,799 at 23:01 UTC on November 1 [2].
Various sources placed November 1, 2026 BTC prices around $77,563-$78,014. Daily historical data showed Yahoo Finance reporting a close of $77,874.24, Investing.com reporting $78,014.4, and CoinCodex reporting $77,563 [3][4][5][6]. Technical analysis identified immediate support around the October 30 low of $76,141, with resistance levels at $79,107 and $81,906 [7][8]. One published scenario projected November trading largely within the $76,000-$82,000 range if BTC maintained above $76,141; a breach below this level could expose targets at $75,538, $74,900, and $73,136 [7][8].
Upcoming events and options expiry offered near-term volatility catalysts. Key developments around November 2, 2026, included significant spot-Bitcoin ETF outflows and a scheduled Binance proof-of-reserves report for November 3 [7][8]. Additionally, Deribit options expiring on November 6 involved approximately 26,966 BTC, valued at about $2.1 billion, with calls outnumbering puts at roughly 3:1 [7][8]. Other prediction markets also indicated a near-term center in the upper-$70,000s; Polymarket's November 2 market showed a 52% probability for BTC between $78,000-$80,000 at 00:13 UTC, while a November 6 market assigned a 98% probability to BTC staying above $68,000 [9][10][11]. These markets serve as directional indicators, not precise point forecasts [9][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 3Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 4Bitcoin Historical Datainvesting.com
- 5Bitcoin (BTC) Price History and Historical Datacoincheckup.com
- 6Bitcoin (BTC) Historical Data | CoinCodexcoincodex.com
- 7Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
- 8Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2026 - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 9Bitcoin price on November 2?polymarket.com
- 10Bitcoin price thresholds at noon ET on November 1, 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
- 11Bitcoin Above $68000 on November 6?lines.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this market, a YES resolution is triggered if the final average Bitcoin price at expiration is at or above the specified target price. A NO resolution occurs if the final average price is below the target. The market is scheduled to expire on November 1, 2026, at 8 PM EST. The final settlement price is determined by averaging 60 prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $77,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| $77,600 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $77,700 or above | $0.96 | $0.05 | 95% |
| $77,800 or above | $0.90 | $0.11 | 90% |
| $77,900 or above | $0.80 | $0.21 | 80% |
| $78,000 or above | $0.64 | $0.37 | 63% |
| $78,100 or above | $0.48 | $0.53 | 48% |
| $78,200 or above | $0.31 | $0.70 | 31% |
| $78,300 or above | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| $78,400 or above | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| $78,500 or above | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| $78,600 or above | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| $79,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $78,700 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| $78,800 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| $78,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $67,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $67,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $67,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $68,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $69,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $70,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $71,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $72,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $73,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $74,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $75,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,400 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,600 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,800 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $76,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $77,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $77,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $77,200 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $77,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $79,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $79,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $79,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $79,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $80,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $81,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $82,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $83,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $84,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,400 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,600 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,800 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $85,900 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $86,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $86,100 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $86,200 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| $86,300 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Public.com indicated a 99% implied probability for BTC to be $77,400 or above at 8:00 PM EST on Nov. 1, 2026, with probabilities dropping to 8% for $78,500 and 1% for $79,000; Robinhood's market snapshot for the same event placed the distribution around $78,100–$78,500, with leading individual bins at $78,200–$78,299.99 and $78,300–$78,399.99 each at 18¢ [1][2][3]. For this prediction market, the official BTC price for Nov. 1, 2026, 8:00 PM EST is determined by the CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), a 60-second average during the final minute, which differs from general daily market reports or other hourly trading mechanisms [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3BTC price range on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 5The CryptoOceans Twice Daily Cryptocurrency Report (as of 2026-11-01 23:55:12 UTC). – Crypto Oceanscryptooceans.com
- 6BTC Up or Down 1hpredict.fun
- 7prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai
- 8The 15-Minute Bitcoin "Up/Down" Candle Is a Coin Flip With a Rake | AInvestainvest.com
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. How might the cumulative net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, as tracked by firms like Farside Investors and BitMEX Research, impact BTC supply dynamics by late 2026?
| Cumulative Net Positive Flows (as of Oct 30, 2026) | $57.05 billion [1][2] |
|---|---|
| BTC moved into custodial holdings | more than 1.2 million BTC [1][2] |
| October 2026 Month-to-Date Net Flow | -$271.1M [2][3] |
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly tightened BTC's available circulating supply. As of October 30, 2026, cumulative net positive flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $57.05 billion, leading to over 1.2 million BTC moving into custodial holdings [1][2]. This action effectively removes coins from the liquid market, thereby concentrating the circulating supply. The resulting supply pressure is magnified by Bitcoin's inherent issuance constraint, particularly during the 2026 halving-era, where the issuance rate is materially lower than pre-2024 levels. Early ETF demand was estimated to be near 1,100% of daily production, indicating that recurring multi-billion-dollar net inflows could absorb many months of newly mined supply [1][2][4].
However, net positive flows are not irreversible, with significant outflows observed. The cumulative net flow into ETFs can reverse, as evidenced by periods of negative flows [1][2][3]. For instance, October 2026 experienced a month-to-date net flow of -$271.1 million, including an aggregate outflow of approximately $409.5 million on October 30 [2][3]. Earlier in 2026, a selloff involved about 59,400 BTC of ETF outflows over 13 trading days [2][3]. While continued net positive flows could further concentrate circulating BTC and tighten the available float, potentially supporting asymmetric upside during renewed demand, this ETF scarcity effect can be potentially overwhelmed by factors such as redemptions, long-term-holder distribution, miner selling, derivatives leverage, macro liquidity, and price-driven demand [1][2][3].
6. What do long-term on-chain metrics and technical analysis models indicate for Bitcoin's likely price range in Q4 2026?
| Expected Trading Zone Q4 2026 | $70,000–$95,000 (market-implied near $78,000 for Nov 1, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Downside Stress Range | $49,000–$62,000 (if key support levels fail) [1][2][3][4][5] |
| Upside Extension Potential | $100,000–$120,000 (if ETF flows reverse) [1][2][3][4][5] |
Long-term on-chain metrics and technical analysis models suggest Bitcoin's expected Q4 2026 price range centers on $70,000–$95,000. Prediction markets indicate a market-implied level near $78,000 for November 1, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Given Bitcoin's annualized volatility, which typically ranges from 40% to 70%, this should be considered a broad scenario rather than a precise point forecast [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Academic research, however, advises using on-chain data for directional context, but not for validating multi-month price targets [7].
A downside stress range of approximately $49,000–$62,000 is projected. This scenario is considered if critical cost-basis and 200-week support levels are breached [1][2][3][4][5]. In Q2 2026, Bitcoin's market realized price was near $53,135, with an estimated downside floor around $49,000, while the 200-week moving average stood near $62,200 [2][3]. Bitcoin closed June at $58,544, falling below its short-term-holder realized price of approximately $70,327, 200-day moving average of about $75,371, and on-chain mean of roughly $76,660 [3]. Despite these recent downturns, supply in loss (54%) exceeded supply in profit (46%), a pattern historically associated with cyclical lows, and long-term-holder supply reached a record of approximately 14.85 million BTC [3].
An upside extension towards roughly $100,000–$120,000 remains possible. This could materialize if ETF flows reverse and the price reclaims major moving averages [1][2][3][4][5]. A significant headwind observed in Q2 2026 was ETF outflows totaling approximately 71,000 BTC over seven consecutive weeks [3].
Sources (7)
- 1BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Bitcoin Forecast H2 2026: 50% Correction, Fear and Outflowsnaga.com
- 3The Bitcoin Quarterlyassets.arkinvest.com
- 4After Stock-to-Flow: Which Bitcoin Price Model Survives?hoge.gg
- 5Bitcoin Power Law Model (Live Chart)charts.bitbo.io
- 6Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptionsvaneck.com
- 7Bitcoin Price Direction Prediction Using On-chain Data and...researchgate.net
7. How do the late-2026 Bitcoin price forecasts from major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan compare with predictions from crypto-native firms like Ark Invest and Pantera Capital?
| JPMorgan 6-12 month forecast | ~$170,000 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs 2026 forecast | ~$200,000 [1][3] |
| ARK Invest 2030 base forecast | ~$710,000 [4] |
Major investment banks offer bullish, yet more conservative, late-2026 Bitcoin forecasts. Firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan provide materially bullish price predictions, which generally remain below the longer-range targets set by crypto-native companies [1]. JPMorgan projects a 6–12-month or fair-value scenario of approximately $170,000, alongside a longer-term or theoretical structural case ranging from $240,000 to $266,000 [1][2]. Goldman Sachs reportedly forecasts a Bitcoin price of around $200,000 for 2026 [1][3].
Crypto-native firms project considerably higher, more aggressive Bitcoin price targets. Firms in the crypto-native sector, particularly Ark Invest, demonstrate stronger structural conviction, leading to significantly more aggressive longer-horizon targets [4][5][6]. Ark Invest's official 2030 bear, base, and bull case targets are approximately $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million per BTC, respectively [4]. More recent reports indicate a revised five-year base case of about $750,000 and a bull case of $1.25 million [7][8]. Pantera Capital's 2026 outlook emphasizes institutional adoption and increasing demand, though it has not published a clearly stated official 2026 BTC price target; secondary forecasts attribute $148,000 for 2026 to them, a figure that is less firmly sourced [5][6][9]. These firm forecasts are substantially higher than the $77,400 threshold observed in a November 1, 2026 prediction market, though this comparison is not exact due to differences in time horizons and specificity [10].
Sources (10)
- 1'Banks Are Coming'—Wall Street Bitcoin Rush Targets $189Kforbes.com
- 2How High Can Bitcoin Go? This New BTC Price Prediction...financemagnates.com
- 32026 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why Analysts Are Bullish on...phemex.com
- 4ARK's Price Target For Bitcoin In 2030ark-invest.com
- 5Crypto analysis: Bitmine's Tom Lee and Pantera's Dan...coindesk.com
- 6Navigating Crypto in 2026 - Pantera Capitalpanteracapital.com
- 7Cathie Wood Upsizes Her Bitcoin Price Prediction to $1.25...finance.yahoo.com
- 81 Popular Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Surges by 920%,...fool.com
- 9Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 2027 2028 - 2030investinghaven.com
- 10BTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 8pm EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
8. What does historical data on Bitcoin's performance during previous post-halving cycles suggest for its price trajectory through November 2026?
| 2024-cycle Peak | October 2025 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Expected Correction from Peak | 50%–54% [1][3][4] |
| October 2025 Peak Price | approximately $126,000 [1][3][4] |
Historical data suggests Bitcoin's 2024 halving cycle is projected to peak in October 2025. This peak is anticipated approximately 534 days after the April 19, 2024 halving event, marking the culmination of a significant expansion phase [1][2]. Consequently, November 2026 is more likely to represent a consolidation, late-bear, or accumulation phase for Bitcoin, rather than a new post-halving expansion period [1][4][5].
A substantial correction is anticipated through 2026, leading to lower prices. Following the projected peak, a notable market correction is expected to occur throughout 2026 [1][3][4]. Historical data suggests that future drawdowns may be less severe than in previous cycles, estimated around 50%–54% from an anticipated October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000 [1][3][4]. This correction could place Bitcoin prices in the range of $60,000–$70,000 during parts of 2026, with a reported low potentially near $57,950–$60,074 [3][6][4]. A cycle-timing model further indicates a new accumulation window around late November 2026, specifically identifying October 2026–January 2027 as a probable bear-market-bottom window [4][5].
Precise Bitcoin price predictions for November 2026 remain challenging. Despite these cycle-based projections, the available evidence does not support a precise Bitcoin price for November 1, 2026; a broad price range is considered more defensible than a single target [1][4][7][5]. Macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, ETF flows, leverage, and potential shifts in the typical four-year cycle are all critical external factors that can influence or override traditional halving seasonality patterns [1][4][7][5].
Sources (7)
- 1Bitcoin halving cycle | Wells Fargo Investment Institutewellsfargoadvisors.com
- 2What To Expect For Bitcoin After The Halving?itrustcapital.com
- 3Bitcoin Price History: Charts, Trends, and Analysisbitcoin.com
- 4Bitcoin's 500-Day Halving Rule Flashes Next Buy Signal in...finance.yahoo.com
- 5Bitcoin Cycles: The 4-Year Halving Pattern Explainedbit.com
- 6Bitcoin Price History (2009-2026)sofi.com
- 7A Guide to Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle | How Does It Work?etoro.com
9. What key macroeconomic events and crypto-specific catalysts, such as FOMC meetings or the 2026 Mt. Gox distribution, are scheduled that could drive Bitcoin volatility before November 2026?
| Mt. Gox Official Repayment Deadline | October 31, 2027 [1] |
|---|---|
| Mt. Gox Bitcoin Movement (June 2026) | 10,422.65 BTC [2] |
| Bitcoin Decline from 1% Upside CPI Surprise | Approximately 5.5% [3] |
Mt. Gox distributions remain a key crypto volatility driver despite deadline shifts. While the official repayment deadline for Mt. Gox creditors has been extended from October 31, 2026, to October 31, 2027, November 1, 2026, does not mark a final repayment deadline [1]. Nevertheless, Mt. Gox-related supply continues to be a potential catalyst for Bitcoin volatility. This is evidenced by a transfer of 10,422.65 BTC, valued at approximately $739 million, on June 2, 2026 [2]. With an estimated 34,504 BTC remaining in its holdings, future transfers or signs of creditor selling could still exert pressure on Bitcoin's price [2].
Upcoming economic reports, not FOMC meetings, are the primary macroeconomic catalysts. The Federal Reserve's 2026 meeting calendar indicates that all seven FOMC meetings scheduled through October 27–28 have already occurred, and the December 8–9, 2026, meeting is set after the November 1, 2026, resolution timestamp [4]. The most immediate scheduled macroeconomic catalysts are the October employment report, slated for Friday, November 6, 2026, and the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, both expected at 8:30 a.m. ET [5]. These releases are known to significantly influence Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations, the value of the dollar, and Bitcoin volatility [5]. Historically, CPI surprises alone have accounted for approximately 25% of Bitcoin’s first-hour return variation, with a one-percentage-point upside CPI surprise correlating to roughly a 5.5% Bitcoin decline over the subsequent 60 minutes [3].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
On November 1, 2026, BTC traded near an approximate $77,800 level at 8 p.m. EST, though daily close figures varied across providers, with Yahoo Finance reporting $77,874.24, Investing.com $78,014.4, and Yahoo UK $78,242.98 [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets indicated roughly an 80% chance of BTC touching $80,000 during November and about 75% on falling below $75,000 [5][6]. Bullish technical triggers include holding the October low, reclaiming $80,000 on a daily close, and clearing resistance near $81,906/50-day average, which could open a test of the prior high-close area near $86,489 [5][6]. Conversely, a daily close below approximately $76,141-$76,326 would signal breakdown risk, targeting reference levels near $75,538, $74,900/$74,968, and the 200-day average around $73,136-$73,200 [5][6].
Key scheduled events for November 2026 begin with the November 3 Binance proof-of-reserves deadline and U.S. midterm elections [5][6][7][8][9]. On November 6, the U.S. October jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET, coinciding with options expiry [5][6][7][8][9]. October CPI follows on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET [5][6][7][8][9]. November 11 includes an MSCI decision on Strategy and an SEC crypto-ETF-options deadline, with PPI due on November 12 [5][6][7][8][9]. The 13F deadline falls on November 16 or 14, depending on convention [5][6][7][8][9]. Later in the month, PCE and the second Q3 GDP estimate are on November 25 [5][6][7][8][9]. Thanksgiving is November 26, followed by crypto options expiry and thinner liquidity on November 27 [5][6][7][8][9].
Macro bias remains significant, with November releases positioned to reprice expectations for the December 8–9 FOMC meeting; Kalshi traders priced a roughly 71% chance of a December hike [5][8]. Potential bullish catalysts include BTC holding October support, positive ETF-flow days, a reassuring Binance reserve disclosure, and an MSCI outcome avoiding forced selling concerns [5][6][9]. Conversely, bearish catalysts could emerge from continued ETF outflows, a disappointing Binance report, MSCI removal of Strategy, weak macro data implications for risk assets, and a close below established support levels [5][6][9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 02, 2026
- Expiration: November 09, 2026
- Closes: November 02, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 2Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 3Bitcoin Historical Datainvesting.com
- 4Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) price history and historical datauk.finance.yahoo.com
- 5Bitcoin November 2026: What Follows a Red Octoberbasecamp.markets
- 6Bitcoin Price Prediction for November 2026 - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
- 7November 2026 Crypto Calendar | Crypto Lunarcryptolunar.com
- 8Crypto November 2026: Devcon Mumbai, 13F Deadline & Every Event Smart Money Is Trackingdeepbluealpha.io
- 9Bitcoin week ahead: payrolls 6 Nov, $2.1B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26NOV0119-T86299.99: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV0119-T86199.99: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV0119-T86099.99: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV0119-T85999.99: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV0119-T85899.99: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
