BTC price on Aug 13, 2026 at 11pm EDT?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect BTC price to be $54,100 or above on Aug 13, 2026 at 11pm EDT, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index settled at $63,415.28.
- This definitively places the probability mass for $54,100 or above at 100%.
- This market stability followed mid-August institutional ETF inflows and constructive sentiment.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Bitcoin traded around $63,400 with a bearish to neutral near-term outlook. As of August 13, 2026, at 11:00 PM EDT, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) registered $63,415.28 [^] and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price - Real Time (NQBTC) was $63,477.07 [^]. Earlier in the day, Bitcoin traded near $63,500 following an in-line U.S. inflation report [^]. Market analysts cited key resistance at $65,000 and support levels between $60,500 and $62,200 [^].
ETF inflows supported prices, but subdued liquidity limited upside. Bitcoin's price action in mid-August 2026 was characterized as range-bound, stabilizing near $65,000, with recent spots around $63.9k [^]. Institutional ETF inflows provided support, while subdued spot liquidity and muted network activity constrained price movement [^]. Options volatility neared 52-week lows, with the market pricing in reduced interest rate risk after softer labor market data was released on August 7, 2026 [^].
Key network developments included a failed soft fork and vulnerability disclosures. The proposed BIP-110 soft fork, which aimed to restrict data in Bitcoin transactions, effectively failed by August 13, 2026 [^]. Its minority chain split did not gain hashpower and was abandoned by the mining group Roughnecks [^]. Separately, the Bitcoin Red Team reported on August 13, 2026, that they utilized Chinese AI models to identify thousands of vulnerabilities, including critical and high-severity flaws, across the Bitcoin open-source ecosystem [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
No historical price data available.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if the final determined Bitcoin price at 11:00 PM EDT on August 13, 2023, is $63,500 or higher, and "No" if it is below $63,500. The official final value is calculated as the average of 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before the 11:00 PM EDT expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
On August 13, 2026, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) was $63,415.28 and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price - Real Time (NQBTC) was $63,477.07 shortly before 11:00 PM EDT [^][^]. Crypto market sentiment on that day was largely characterized by fear, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index ranging between 29 and 36, and traders increasing leveraged bets amidst fading spot trading volume [^][^][^].
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
$63,500 or abovePrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$54,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$55,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$56,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$57,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$58,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$59,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$60,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$61,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$62,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$63,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$64,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$65,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$66,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$67,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$68,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$69,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$70,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$71,900 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,000 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,100 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,200 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,300 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,400 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,500 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,600 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,700 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
$72,800 or aboveTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 14, 2026
5. How did the immediate price impact of the August 2026 U.S. inflation report compare to the failure of the BIP-110 soft fork?
| July 2026 US CPI (MoM) | 0.1% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| July 2026 US CPI (YoY) | 3.4% [^][^][^] |
| Bitcoin price (August 13, 2026) | $63,415.28 [^] |
The July 2026 U.S. inflation report caused minimal immediate market impact. The report, released on August 12, 2026, indicated that consumer prices rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, precisely matching market expectations [^][^][^]. This outcome, where inflation perfectly met forecasts, resulted in a minimal immediate price impact [^][^][^]. On August 12, 2026, the reported U.S. inflation rate stood at 2.5%, with Bitcoin trading around $63,000 [^].
Reports conflict regarding a BIP-110 soft fork's failure and its market effect. Some sources describe a BIP-110 soft fork failing shortly after its August 8, 2026, activation deadline due to negligible miner support, leading to the breakaway chain stalling after only two blocks [^][^][^][^]. These reports suggest no significant market price impact from this failure, as the market interpreted it as a confirmation of Bitcoin's consensus mechanisms [^][^][^][^]. Conversely, another source states there is no verifiable record of such a BIP-110 soft fork failure occurring in August 2026, and no relevant market-moving event related to it happened during this period [^]. On August 13, 2026, prediction markets showed Bitcoin trading between $63,300 and $63,400 [^][^][^], and the Bitcoin price (CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index) was $63,415.28 at 21:59:57 GMT [^].
6. What did on-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate about institutional ETF inflows versus retail activity in the week of August 11, 2026?
| Avg daily US spot ETF net creations | +$95M as of August 11, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Net ETF flow on August 11 | Inflow of $4.9 million [^] |
| Net ETF flow on August 12 | Outflow of $61.2 million [^] |
On-chain data from mid-August 2026 revealed a clear divergence in market behavior. Institutional investment through US spot ETFs showed net creations averaging approximately +$95 million per day as of August 11, which was considered a constructive signal despite some deceleration in daily flows [^][^][^][^]. For instance, August 11 saw a net inflow of $4.9 million, followed by a net outflow of $61.2 million on August 12, marking a decrease from the previous week's strong institutional demand, though institutional flows were still noted as strong overall [^][^].
Conversely, retail investors exhibited a lower risk appetite, marked by capitulation. Retail activity during this period was characterized by increased capitulation among short-term holders, with significant Bitcoin movements onto exchanges at a loss and smaller wallet-level transfers [^][^][^]. Moreover, underlying network activity, including active addresses, transfer volume, and fee generation, remained muted, indicating limited transactional urgency and subdued retail or organic demand [^].
7. How did the methodologies of the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price (NQBTC) differ in August 2026?
| Calculation Frequency | Every second [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| BRTI Regulatory Status | Registered benchmark under UK BMR [^] |
| NQBTC Contributor Volume Method | Uses 30-day medians [^][^] |
The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price (NQBTC) both provide real-time Bitcoin prices, updated every second, by aggregating order book data from constituent exchanges [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . While sharing this fundamental objective, their specific methodologies for weighting prices from these exchanges and addressing various market conditions present notable differences [^][^][^].
The BRTI employs a sophisticated volume-weighted distribution for its price calculations [^] [^] [^] . It aggregates order book data exclusively from constituent exchanges meeting specific CME CF criteria [^][^][^]. The index methodology weights mid-prices based on a cumulative volume-weighted distribution and further weights mid-price-volume curves according to the normalized probability density of an exponential distribution up to a calculated utilized depth [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the BRTI is recognized as a registered benchmark under the UK BMR [^].
In contrast, the NQBTC calculates its constituent prices by summing weighted digital asset prices observed from a selection of core exchanges [^] [^] . This index determines contributor volume using 30-day medians and incorporates specific provisions for effectively handling periods of low transaction activity [^][^]. The NQBTC's methodology is applied to order book data obtained from exchanges that satisfy the eligibility criteria of the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) [^][^][^], for which CF Benchmarks functions as the designated calculation agent [^][^][^][^].
8. What market sentiment signals did Bitcoin's options data and futures term structure provide leading up to August 13, 2026?
| Option-implied volatility | Near 36% (as of August 11, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Perpetual taker activity | Above upper statistical bounds (by August 10, 2026) [^] |
| Options skew | Compression, indicating reduced demand for downside protection [^] |
Bitcoin's sentiment evolved from caution to a more constructive outlook leading up to August 13, 2026. Derivatives markets displayed a mixed but transitioning sentiment, initially cautious [^][^] but shifting towards a more optimistic perspective [^]. This change was evident in the options market, where a compression in options skew signaled reduced demand for downside protection and an easing of defensive positions [^]. By August 11, 2026, option-implied volatility was near 36%, indicating a period of relatively calm pricing [^].
Futures markets showed aggressive participation with controlled leverage build-up. In the futures market, perpetual taker activity surpassed upper statistical bounds by August 10, 2026, pointing to more aggressive directional engagement [^]. Despite this, open interest and funding levels remained moderate, suggesting that leverage was accumulating in a relatively contained manner [^]. However, leveraged traders continued to position for a recovery that had yet to materialize [^][^].
9. Following the Bitcoin Red Team's August 2026 vulnerability report, what was the official response from Bitcoin Core developers and major mining pools?
| Projects scanned by Bitcoin Red Team | Over 500 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total vulnerabilities identified | Nearly 8,000 by August 8 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| High or critical severity findings | Approximately 16% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
AI-driven scans generated numerous vulnerabilities, creating chaos for developers. In August 2026, the volunteer Bitcoin Red Team employed AI to scan over 500 Bitcoin-related projects for security vulnerabilities. By August 8, this effort identified nearly 8,000 total findings, with approximately 16% categorized as high or critical severity [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This resulted in an overwhelming influx of unverified reports for individual maintainers and project owners, leading to significant challenges in coordination and triage. Developers described the situation as chaotic due to the difficulty in routing AI-generated findings and managing a high rate of potential false positives [^][^][^][^].
No unified official response emerged from Bitcoin Core or major mining pools. Following the Bitcoin Red Team's August 2026 vulnerability report, there was no collective official response from Bitcoin Core developers; instead, individual maintainers faced the deluge of unverified reports [^][^][^][^]. Moreover, professional research and news reports from the Bitcoin ecosystem up to August 14, 2026, show no evidence of an August 2026 'Bitcoin Red Team' vulnerability report or any associated official responses from major mining pools [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Market participants on August 13, 2026, focused on an in-line U.S. July inflation report (3.4% year-over-year) that failed to catalyze a significant price breakout for Bitcoin [^]. Market sentiment remained cautious, with Bitcoin facing weak spot participation and inconsistent ETF demand, despite signs of structural exhaustion in recent sell-offs [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: August 14, 2026
- Expiration: August 21, 2026
- Closes: August 14, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key market catalysts identified for August 2026 include the SEC's Regulation Crypto vote (scheduled for August 14, 2026), the upcoming Jackson Hole central banker symposium, the September 4 jobs report, the September 11 inflation release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market participants on August 13, 2026, focused on an in-line U.S.
- Trigger: July inflation report (3.4% year-over-year) that failed to catalyze a significant price breakout for Bitcoin [^] .
- Trigger: Market sentiment remained cautious, with Bitcoin facing weak spot participation and inconsistent ETF demand, despite signs of structural exhaustion in recent sell-offs [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72799.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72699.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72599.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72499.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72399.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
