Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect BTC price to be $54,100 or above on Aug 13, 2026 at 11pm EDT, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index settled at $63,415.28.
  • This definitively places the probability mass for $54,100 or above at 100%.
  • This market stability followed mid-August institutional ETF inflows and constructive sentiment.

Current Context

Bitcoin traded around $63,400 with a bearish to neutral near-term outlook. As of August 13, 2026, at 11:00 PM EDT, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) registered $63,415.28 [1] and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price - Real Time (NQBTC) was $63,477.07 [2]. Earlier in the day, Bitcoin traded near $63,500 following an in-line U.S. inflation report [3]. Market analysts cited key resistance at $65,000 and support levels between $60,500 and $62,200 [4].
ETF inflows supported prices, but subdued liquidity limited upside. Bitcoin's price action in mid-August 2026 was characterized as range-bound, stabilizing near $65,000, with recent spots around $63.9k [5]. Institutional ETF inflows provided support, while subdued spot liquidity and muted network activity constrained price movement [5]. Options volatility neared 52-week lows, with the market pricing in reduced interest rate risk after softer labor market data was released on August 7, 2026 [5].
Key network developments included a failed soft fork and vulnerability disclosures. The proposed BIP-110 soft fork, which aimed to restrict data in Bitcoin transactions, effectively failed by August 13, 2026 [6]. Its minority chain split did not gain hashpower and was abandoned by the mining group Roughnecks [6]. Separately, the Bitcoin Red Team reported on August 13, 2026, that they utilized Chinese AI models to identify thousands of vulnerabilities, including critical and high-severity flaws, across the Bitcoin open-source ecosystem [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1BRTI - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3BTC price news: Bitcoin slips near $63,500 as traders look past CPI to Fed’s next testscoindesk.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Break $65K or Slide to $61K?cryptonews.com
  5. 5BTC Market Pulse: Week 33research.glassnode.com
  6. 6BIP-110 Is Dead. Bitcoin's Governance Just Answered Its Own Question.blockhead.co
  7. 7'Bitcoin Is Burning': Red Team Turns to Chinese AI to Find Flaws - Decryptdecrypt.co

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if the final determined Bitcoin price at 11:00 PM EDT on August 13, 2023, is $63,500 or higher, and "No" if it is below $63,500. The official final value is calculated as the average of 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before the 11:00 PM EDT expiration.

Market Discussion

On August 13, 2026, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) was $63,415.28 and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price - Real Time (NQBTC) was $63,477.07 shortly before 11:00 PM EDT [1][2]. Crypto market sentiment on that day was largely characterized by fear, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index ranging between 29 and 36, and traders increasing leveraged bets amidst fading spot trading volume [3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1BRTI - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Crypto Market Overview | leverage bets rise as spot volume fades and sentiment dips | August 13, 2026 - CryptoBuyingTipscryptobuyingtips.com
  4. 4Crypto Fear and Greed Index Drops to 36 as Market Sentiment Worsens | Bitcoin Stablecoins | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
  5. 5Crypto market update August 13: BTC falls, HYPE risesaltcoinbuzz.io

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality17
Poor
Liquidity
12

188 contracts · worst first

$63,200 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,900 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$64,200 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,800 or above2
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,700 or above4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,500 or above5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,600 or above6
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,100 or above12
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,400 or above24
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,300 or above27
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$54,100 or above—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

$54,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$61,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$62,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$70,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$71,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$72,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

Move quality
—

No reading right now

188 contracts · worst first

$54,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$70,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$71,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$72,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

188 contracts · worst first

$54,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$70,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$71,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$72,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 14, 2026

5. How did the immediate price impact of the August 2026 U.S. inflation report compare to the failure of the BIP-110 soft fork?

July 2026 US CPI (MoM)0.1% [1][2][3]
July 2026 US CPI (YoY)3.4% [1][2][3]
Bitcoin price (August 13, 2026)$63,415.28 [4]
The July 2026 U.S. inflation report caused minimal immediate market impact. The report, released on August 12, 2026, indicated that consumer prices rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, precisely matching market expectations [1][2][3]. This outcome, where inflation perfectly met forecasts, resulted in a minimal immediate price impact [1][2][3]. On August 12, 2026, the reported U.S. inflation rate stood at 2.5%, with Bitcoin trading around $63,000 [5].
Reports conflict regarding a BIP-110 soft fork's failure and its market effect. Some sources describe a BIP-110 soft fork failing shortly after its August 8, 2026, activation deadline due to negligible miner support, leading to the breakaway chain stalling after only two blocks [6][7][8][9]. These reports suggest no significant market price impact from this failure, as the market interpreted it as a confirmation of Bitcoin's consensus mechanisms [6][7][8][9]. Conversely, another source states there is no verifiable record of such a BIP-110 soft fork failure occurring in August 2026, and no relevant market-moving event related to it happened during this period [4]. On August 13, 2026, prediction markets showed Bitcoin trading between $63,300 and $63,400 [10][11][12], and the Bitcoin price (CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index) was $63,415.28 at 21:59:57 GMT [4].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  2. 2Inflation came in perfectly on forecast. Almost everything underneath it is a ‘mess’ | Fortunefortune.com
  3. 3July 2026 CPI report: Inflation remained stubbornnbcnews.com
  4. 4BRTI - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5Trigger Happyinsights.glassnode.com
  6. 6BIP-110 Bitcoin Fork Stalls at Two Blocks as Its Only Miner Quits | The Defiantthedefiant.io
  7. 7Bitcoin’s BIP-110 fork is 300 blocks behind BTC and six years from fixing itselfcoindesk.com
  8. 8BIP-110 Split Tested Bitcoin's Rules and Lost - ETHNewsethnews.com
  9. 9Why BIP-110 Failed: Flawed Soft Fork Design or Miner Capture?news.bitcoin.com
  10. 10BTC price on Aug 13, 2026 at 7pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11BTC price on Aug 13, 2026 at 8pm EDTrobinhood.com
  12. 12Bitcoin above ___ on August 13, 4PM ET?polymarket.com

6. What did on-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate about institutional ETF inflows versus retail activity in the week of August 11, 2026?

Avg daily US spot ETF net creations+$95M as of August 11, 2026 [1][2][3]
Net ETF flow on August 11Inflow of $4.9 million [1]
Net ETF flow on August 12Outflow of $61.2 million [1]
On-chain data from mid-August 2026 revealed a clear divergence in market behavior. Institutional investment through US spot ETFs showed net creations averaging approximately +$95 million per day as of August 11, which was considered a constructive signal despite some deceleration in daily flows [4][1][2][3]. For instance, August 11 saw a net inflow of $4.9 million, followed by a net outflow of $61.2 million on August 12, marking a decrease from the previous week's strong institutional demand, though institutional flows were still noted as strong overall [1][2].
Conversely, retail investors exhibited a lower risk appetite, marked by capitulation. Retail activity during this period was characterized by increased capitulation among short-term holders, with significant Bitcoin movements onto exchanges at a loss and smaller wallet-level transfers [4][5][6]. Moreover, underlying network activity, including active addresses, transfer volume, and fee generation, remained muted, indicating limited transactional urgency and subdued retail or organic demand [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETF Flows: August 2026 — Daily Table & Net Totals · TFTCtftc.io
  2. 2BTC Market Pulse: Week 33research.glassnode.com
  3. 3Market Compass: The Dollar Does the Liftingresearch.glassnode.com
  4. 4Behind the Continuous Net Inflows into BTC ETFs: What Does the Divergence Between Institutional and Retail Behavior Mean? | Gate Bloggate.com
  5. 5Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Falls to $62.6K as ETF Inflows Offset Weak Spot Demand - CoinDeskcoindesk.cc
  6. 6Gate Research: ETF Inflows Support Spot Demand, BTC Holds Within a Key Range | Gate Researchgate.com

7. How did the methodologies of the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price (NQBTC) differ in August 2026?

Calculation FrequencyEvery second [1][2][3][4][5]
BRTI Regulatory StatusRegistered benchmark under UK BMR [6]
NQBTC Contributor Volume MethodUses 30-day medians [3][4]
The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) and the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price (NQBTC) both provide real-time Bitcoin prices, updated every second, by aggregating order book data from constituent exchanges [1][2][3][4][5]. While sharing this fundamental objective, their specific methodologies for weighting prices from these exchanges and addressing various market conditions present notable differences [1][3][4].
The BRTI employs a sophisticated volume-weighted distribution for its price calculations [1][2][7]. It aggregates order book data exclusively from constituent exchanges meeting specific CME CF criteria [1][2][7]. The index methodology weights mid-prices based on a cumulative volume-weighted distribution and further weights mid-price-volume curves according to the normalized probability density of an exponential distribution up to a calculated utilized depth [1][2][7]. Furthermore, the BRTI is recognized as a registered benchmark under the UK BMR [6].
In contrast, the NQBTC calculates its constituent prices by summing weighted digital asset prices observed from a selection of core exchanges [3][4]. This index determines contributor volume using 30-day medians and incorporates specific provisions for effectively handling periods of low transaction activity [3][4]. The NQBTC's methodology is applied to order book data obtained from exchanges that satisfy the eligibility criteria of the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) [5][8][9], for which CF Benchmarks functions as the designated calculation agent [5][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2BRTI - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3NASDAQ CRYPTO INDEXESbeta.indexes.nasdaq.com
  4. 4NASDAQ CRYPTOTM INDEXESindexes.nasdaqomx.com
  5. 5Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6Announcement of Consultation on Changes to the CME CF Real Time Index Methodology - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  7. 7CME CF Cryptocurrency Pricing Products - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  8. 8Nasdaq Series Crypto Index Family - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9NQBTCS - CFBcfbenchmarks.com
  10. 10CF Benchmarks appointed Calculation Agent for Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) - CFBcfbenchmarks.com

8. What market sentiment signals did Bitcoin's options data and futures term structure provide leading up to August 13, 2026?

Option-implied volatilityNear 36% (as of August 11, 2026) [1]
Perpetual taker activityAbove upper statistical bounds (by August 10, 2026) [2]
Options skewCompression, indicating reduced demand for downside protection [2]
Bitcoin's sentiment evolved from caution to a more constructive outlook leading up to August 13, 2026. Derivatives markets displayed a mixed but transitioning sentiment, initially cautious [3][4] but shifting towards a more optimistic perspective [2]. This change was evident in the options market, where a compression in options skew signaled reduced demand for downside protection and an easing of defensive positions [2]. By August 11, 2026, option-implied volatility was near 36%, indicating a period of relatively calm pricing [1].
Futures markets showed aggressive participation with controlled leverage build-up. In the futures market, perpetual taker activity surpassed upper statistical bounds by August 10, 2026, pointing to more aggressive directional engagement [2]. Despite this, open interest and funding levels remained moderate, suggesting that leverage was accumulating in a relatively contained manner [2]. However, leveraged traders continued to position for a recovery that had yet to materialize [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Market Compass: The Dollar Does the Liftingresearch.glassnode.com
  2. 2BTC Market Pulse: Week 33research.glassnode.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $63,400 Amid ETF Outflows and Macro Uncertaintyinteractivecrypto.com
  4. 4Seller Exhausted, Buyers Absent: Bitcoin Awaits a 'Game-Changer' Below $68.7K - Odailyodaily.news

9. Following the Bitcoin Red Team's August 2026 vulnerability report, what was the official response from Bitcoin Core developers and major mining pools?

Projects scanned by Bitcoin Red TeamOver 500 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Total vulnerabilities identifiedNearly 8,000 by August 8 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
High or critical severity findingsApproximately 16% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
AI-driven scans generated numerous vulnerabilities, creating chaos for developers. In August 2026, the volunteer Bitcoin Red Team employed AI to scan over 500 Bitcoin-related projects for security vulnerabilities. By August 8, this effort identified nearly 8,000 total findings, with approximately 16% categorized as high or critical severity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. This resulted in an overwhelming influx of unverified reports for individual maintainers and project owners, leading to significant challenges in coordination and triage. Developers described the situation as chaotic due to the difficulty in routing AI-generated findings and managing a high rate of potential false positives [3][6][7][9].
No unified official response emerged from Bitcoin Core or major mining pools. Following the Bitcoin Red Team's August 2026 vulnerability report, there was no collective official response from Bitcoin Core developers; instead, individual maintainers faced the deluge of unverified reports [3][6][7][9]. Moreover, professional research and news reports from the Bitcoin ecosystem up to August 14, 2026, show no evidence of an August 2026 'Bitcoin Red Team' vulnerability report or any associated official responses from major mining pools [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin Red Team: 7,958 Security Findings Across 501 Projectsbitcoinnews.africa
  2. 2Bitcoin Red Team Says AI Is Finding Critical Exploits Across Core Projects - Decryptdecrypt.co
  3. 3Bitcoin’s AI security sprint found 6,700 issues in 55 hours, but no one knows how many are realcryptoslate.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Red Team AI Audit: 85 Critical Flaws, 390 Repos · TFTCtftc.io
  5. 5The Bitcoin Red Team: 4,962 Findings in 27.5 Hours - D-Centrald-central.tech
  6. 6Bitcoin developers flag 85 critical bugs in an "extremely...coindesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin's Red Team Hit the Outreach Wall · TFTCtftc.io
  8. 8Bitcoin Red Team scans hundreds of projects, identifies over 1,000 critical vulnerabilities using AIcryptobriefing.com
  9. 9Nineteen of Three Hundred and Ninety - Scenaricascenarica.substack.com
  10. 10Market Compass: The Dollar Does the Liftingresearch.glassnode.com
  11. 11BTC Market Pulse: Week 33research.glassnode.com
  12. 12CF Benchmarkscfbenchmarks.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key market catalysts identified for August 2026 include the SEC's Regulation Crypto vote (scheduled for August 14, 2026), the upcoming Jackson Hole central banker symposium, the September 4 jobs report, the September 11 inflation release, and the September 16 FOMC meeting [1][2][3].
Market participants on August 13, 2026, focused on an in-line U.S. July inflation report (3.4% year-over-year) that failed to catalyze a significant price breakout for Bitcoin [4]. Market sentiment remained cautious, with Bitcoin facing weak spot participation and inconsistent ETF demand, despite signs of structural exhaustion in recent sell-offs [1][2][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: August 14, 2026
  • Expiration: August 21, 2026
  • Closes: August 14, 2026
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin shrugs off 3.4% CPI: why the macro trade stopped workingcrypto.news
  2. 2Why Is Bitcoin Not Rallying Even After CPI Cooled?cryptotimes.io
  3. 3Regulation Crypto: How It Could Move Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Pricecoingabbar.com
  4. 4BTC price news: Bitcoin slips near $63,500 as traders look past CPI to Fed’s next testscoindesk.com
  5. 513Aug2026 - Crypto & Macro-Liquidity (Au79 Macro Research)martyau79.substack.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72799.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72699.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72599.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72499.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26AUG1322-T72399.99: NO (Aug 14, 2026)