Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows in Q1 2026. By the end of the first quarter of 2026, these products experienced net cumulative outflows totaling $500 million ^[1]. This figure represents the overall flow spanning January, February, and March 2026 for the listed Bitcoin ETFs.

March inflows marked a significant shift for Bitcoin ETFs. March 2026 saw a notable turnaround, recording substantial net inflows of $1.32 billion ^[2]. This surge in March was the first positive monthly inflow for these ETFs in 2026, effectively concluding a four-month period of net outflows ^[2]. However, despite this considerable inflow during March, it was insufficient to offset the outflows from the preceding months of Q1 2026, leading to the quarter's overall net negative flow ^[3].

Analyst projections for comparison were not found in research. Information regarding specific projections made by major analysts for the first two years of the products' existence was not available in the provided research, precluding a direct comparison with the observed Q1 2026 performance.

The US Federal Funds Rate target range for the March 2026 FOMC meeting was projected to remain steady, consistent with consensus forecasts ^[1]. Major investment banks, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, reported that the Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates. Goldman Sachs specifically adjusted its outlook for rate cuts to September 2026, which implied a steady rate through March 2026 ^[1]. Further supporting this expectation, the CME FedWatch Tool also indicated stable rates around April 2026, driven by ongoing inflation concerns ^[4].

Bitcoin has historically shown significant gains after the first Fed rate cut in an easing cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated significant price appreciation in the 12 months following the Federal Reserve's initial rate reduction. Research indicates average gains for Bitcoin ranging from 62% to 78% in the year subsequent to the first rate cut ^[3]. However, it is also noted that the direct influence of rate cuts on Bitcoin's price might sometimes be overemphasized, as other market dynamics and various factors play a crucial role in its overall performance ^[5].

Following the 2024 US elections, the confirmed chairs of both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee have adopted a supportive stance toward digital asset regulation for their 2025 agendas. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), confirmed as Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has emphasized the need for clear digital asset market structure legislation ^[1]. His committee has demonstrated a proactive approach by announcing markups for digital asset bills and engaging in discussions outlining principles for such legislation ^[4]. This indicates a supportive stance aiming to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

House Financial Services Chair prioritizes supportive digital asset legislation next year. Representative French Hill (R-AR), confirmed as Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, plans to prioritize digital asset legislation in the new year ^[2]. He states that Congress has a responsibility to safeguard financial stability and create a regulatory framework that fosters growth while effectively addressing risks ^[2]. Chairman Hill advocates for "fit-for-purpose regulation" to encourage innovation and capital formation within the digital asset space, clearly supporting structured regulation over a restrictive or neutral approach ^[5].

Bipartisan engagement exists for comprehensive digital asset market structure legislation. There is evidence of bipartisan involvement in the pursuit of a comprehensive market structure bill, similar to the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21). Senator Scott has participated in discussions on digital asset market structure principles with lawmakers from both parties, including Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), signaling cross-party interest in developing a regulatory framework ^[3]. While a specific Senate version of FIT21 or another comprehensive bill has not been explicitly detailed by these chairs for 2025 in the provided sources, both committee chairs' stated agendas indicate a shared objective to bring regulatory clarity and structure to the digital asset market.

Bitcoin active addresses show varying patterns influenced by new ETF demand. Historically, Bitcoin's active addresses exhibited varied patterns following halving events, as observed by platforms such as Glassnode and Bitinfocharts, which monitor unique daily active addresses to reflect network adoption ^[2]. A significant new development is the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have considerably influenced these on-chain metrics. For instance, a 31% decline in Bitcoin's active addresses occurred concurrently with $4.5 billion in ETF outflows, highlighting that institutional investment vehicles introduce new variables to the growth of on-chain activity beyond traditional halving influences ^[1].

The NVT ratio is a key metric lacking future ETF-adjusted projections. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio serves as a key valuation metric, comparing Bitcoin's market capitalization to its on-chain transaction volume, where a high ratio may suggest overvaluation and a low ratio potential undervaluation ^[3]. This ratio has exhibited distinct behaviors following the 2016 and 2020 halvings, according to data from Glassnode and Statista ^[3]. However, the current research does not provide forward-looking projections for the NVT ratio's trajectory in the 24 months post-April 2024, nor does it model how ETF-driven demand might specifically alter this ratio in the future. This limitation precludes a direct comparison of future growth trajectories adjusted for ETF demand based on the available information.

As of January 2026, Bitcoin options showed a bullish market sentiment with a low put-to-call ratio. The overall Bitcoin put-to-call ratio on the Deribit exchange was 0.48, indicating a bullish market outlook ^[1]. This ratio, being below 1, suggests that there was a greater number of open call options compared to put options, signaling a positive market skew.

Bitcoin options open interest surpassed futures, but specific contract data was missing for longer-dated expiries. During early 2026, Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit consistently exceeded that of futures open interest, a trend observed to dampen BTC price volatility ^[2]. However, specific data regarding the precise open interest values, volume concentration, and dominant strike price clustering for the March 2026 (BTC-27MAR26) and June 2026 (BTC-26JUN26) Bitcoin options contracts was not detailed in the provided sources as of January 2026 ^[3]. The available research offered a broad put-to-call ratio for Deribit and discussed wider options market dynamics, but did not break down these metrics for individual long-dated expiry contracts for that specific month.