BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT?
Short Answer
Bitcoin's price on October 31, 2026, at 2am EDT is expected to be $76,500 or above, driven by an approximate settlement price range of $77,000–$77,200; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- Outcomes at $76,900 or above show high probability, supported by contemporaneous indicators.
- The $77,000–$77,200 approximate price suggests $77,000+ and $77,100+ outcomes are likely.
- The $77,200+ threshold is plausible, positioned at the indicated range's upper end.
Current Context
The relevant BTC price on October 31, 2026, at 2:00 a.m. EDT (06:00 UTC), was approximately $76,600–$77,000 [1][2][3][4]. The prediction market's exact settlement standard utilized the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), specifically the simple average of 60 one-second observations immediately preceding 2:00 a.m. EDT [1][5][6][7][8]. Public.com's market ladder indicated probabilities of 99% for $76,600-or-above, 98% for $76,700, 94% for $76,800, 88% for $76,900, and 72% for $77,000 [1][2][3][4]. This implied a practical market level of about $76,900–$77,000 [1][2][3][4]. Broader market data from the surrounding interval, including figures of $77,130.02 at 04:08 UTC and $77,149.28 at 05:07 UTC, along with daily open/high/low/close figures near $76,892/$77,236/$76,633/$77,234 for October 31, corroborated these levels without replacing the official BRTI settlement value [2][3][9][4].
A hawkish macroeconomic environment and heightened risk aversion characterized late October [5][6][7][8][10]. The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, with two officials voting for a rate hike [5][6][7][8][10]. Bitcoin futures open interest grew to 676,761 BTC by October 27 [5][6][7][8][10]. Reports cited a Binance security breach, significant liquidations, mixed exchange-traded fund flows, and pressure from oil prices and Treasury yields [5][6][7][8][10].
Several near-term events posed risks to BTC. These included the October 28 Fed decision, October 29 Strategy and Coinbase earnings, the October 30 $10.9 billion Bitcoin options expiry at 08:00 UTC with a reported $78,000 max pain point, the October 31 eCash snapshot/fork policy issue, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 [5][6][7][8][10]. Analysts maintained a cautious outlook, anticipating range-bound trading. Massabni projected BTC to remain between $70,000 and $80,000 due to geopolitical uncertainty [7][10]. Tim Enneking identified the November 3 midterms as the most significant near-term event [7][10]. Hugo Renaudin emphasized the Fed, Strategy earnings, and midterms, while Ryan Myher advised traders to expect back-and-forth price action until a decisive range break [7][10].
Sources (10)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 3Bitcoin (BTC) Price History, Chart | Historical Data for Bitcoinmyfin.us
- 4BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 5Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
- 6Bitcoin Forward, October 2026: Macro Pressure Meets Institutional Build-Out - Rootstock Labsrootstocklabs.com
- 7Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
- 8Bitcoin Holds $79,200 Before the Fed, Coinbase Earnings and a $10.9B Expiry: Which Way Next?finance.yahoo.com
- 9BTC price today, 31 October 2026 — live chart & history | Tindextindex.app
- 10Bitcoin Investors Look To Mid-Term And Fed Meeting Results Amid Range-Bound Tradingforbes.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this market, a YES resolution is triggered if the final Bitcoin price is at or above the contract's specified threshold, while a NO resolution occurs if it is below. The market expires on October 31, 2026, at 2 AM EDT. The final Bitcoin price is determined by averaging 60 prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before expiration.
Market Discussion
The Public.com prediction market for BTC price at 2:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2026, indicated a 99% implied probability for the price to be $76,600 or above, dropping to 46% for $77,100 or above [1]. Other October 31 prediction markets, which track noon/closing prices and not the 2:00 AM hourly contract, generally clustered around $76,000–$78,000, with one Polymarket showing 84% for that range [2]. A separate Polymarket 4-hour BTC market covering 12:00 AM–4:00 AM ET showed an "Up" trend at 65% as of 05:20 UTC on October 31, 2026 [3].
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 7% of the price to slippage.
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. What key U.S. macroeconomic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings in Q3-Q4 2026 could trigger significant Bitcoin price volatility?
| Final major FOMC meeting | October 27-28, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Key Employment Report | October 2 (for September data) [1] |
| Key CPI Release | October 14 (for September data) [1] |
U.S. economic events in late 2026 could impact Bitcoin significantly. Major U.S. macroeconomic data releases and Federal Reserve meetings scheduled for Q3-Q4 2026, specifically prior to October 31, 2026, hold the potential to trigger significant Bitcoin price volatility [2]. These crucial events primarily encompass Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, Employment Situation reports, Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data [2]. The primary channel for event-driven Bitcoin volatility stems from unexpected shifts in Treasury yields, dollar expectations, and the implied Federal Reserve interest rate path. Specifically, economic data that is hotter than anticipated could pressure Bitcoin, while cooler data might offer support [2][1][3][4][5].
Key FOMC meetings and data releases are scheduled for these months. Specific impactful events include FOMC meetings slated for July 28-29, September 15-16, and October 27-28, 2026 [2][1]. The September meeting is notable for including the Summary of Economic Projections, which is important for repricing the rate path, and the October meeting serves as the final major scheduled Fed event before the resolution timeframe [2][1]. Other significant data releases include the Employment Situation reports, particularly the October 2 payrolls report covering September data [1][4]. Furthermore, the October 14 CPI release for September data is expected to influence the resolved price [1][4][5]. Additional data points such as Q2 GDP estimates, corporate profits, Personal Income and Outlays, and JOLTS data are also scheduled for release during this period [3][6][4].
Sources (6)
- 1Federal Reserve Board - 2026 FOMC Press Releasesfederalreserve.gov
- 2The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
- 3Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
- 4Schedule of Selected Releases 2026bls.gov
- 5Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Indexbls.gov
- 6Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
6. What is the consensus among major financial institutions' (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) analyst reports regarding Bitcoin's price target for year-end 2026?
| Standard Chartered 2026 Target | $150,000 (2026 forecast) [1] |
|---|---|
| Citigroup 12-Month Forecast | $112,000 (as of March 2026) [2] |
| Prediction Market Oct 2026 Price | ~$77,000 (as of August 2026) [3][4] |
Major financial institutions show varied Bitcoin price targets for 2026. While there is no single consensus among major financial institutions regarding Bitcoin's price target for year-end 2026, identifiable forecasts generally cluster broadly around $100,000-$150,000. Specific point estimates from these institutions include Standard Chartered's digital-assets research head maintaining a $100,000 Bitcoin year-end 2026 call as of June 2026 [5], with a revised framework also placing its 2026 Bitcoin target at $150,000 [1]. Citigroup, on March 17, 2026, cut its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $112,000 from $143,000 [2]. Bernstein reiterated a $150,000 Bitcoin forecast for 2026 on January 7, 2026 [6].
Analyst targets significantly exceed the current prediction market's expectations. The range derived from institutional research, spanning $100,000-$150,000, is materially above the roughly $77,000 spot threshold being priced for the October 31, 2026 hourly settlement in the prediction market. Market context had weakened by August 2026, with prediction-market odds around $77,000 for the October 31 hourly event approximately 65%-72% in August snapshots. This weakening sentiment was attributed to pressures such as spot-Bitcoin ETF redemptions, miner selling, and stalled U.S. crypto legislation [3][4]. It is important to note that analyst targets represent forward-looking scenarios and do not establish the probability of a specific timestamp or guarantee a year-end close.
Sources (6)
- 1Bitcoin Price (BTC) Outlook: Crypto Winter? Not Yet, but 'Cold Breeze' Prompts Big Cut in Price Targetscoindesk.com
- 2Citigroup cuts 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as US crypto legislation stalls | Reutersreuters.com
- 3Bitcoin Breakout Stalls as ETF Outflows and Miner Selling Drain Market Demand - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 4CLARITY Act Odds Collapse to Record Low as Senate Delays Shake Crypto Market Confidence - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 5Standard Chartered's crypto bull sticks to $100,000 bitcoin call despite 'painful' week | Reutersreuters.com
- 6Tokenization 'supercycle' set to drive crypto’s next leg higher in 2026: Bernsteincoindesk.com
7. How do the projected H2 2026 net flows for major spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, compare as indicators of institutional demand?
| IBIT AUM | $71 billion [1] |
|---|---|
| FBTC AUM | $18 billion [1] |
| August Redemptions | Approximately $390 million (August 10–14) [2] |
Projected H2 2026 net flows for major spot Bitcoin ETFs are currently unavailable. As of October 31, 2026, defensible published projections for second-half-2026 net flows for BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC are not available in current sources [1]. Consequently, analysis focuses on contemporaneous asset and historical daily flow data. BlackRock's IBIT currently leads the category with roughly $71 billion in assets under management (AUM), while Fidelity's FBTC ranks second with approximately $18 billion AUM [1].
Observed daily flow data consistently indicates IBIT's leading institutional demand capture. For example, on March 17, 2026, IBIT attracted $169 million, significantly more than FBTC's $24.4 million on a day when the sector saw a total inflow of $199.4 million [3]. Subsequent strong inflows for IBIT included $181.9 million on April 6 and $134.6 million on May 6 [4][5]. While FBTC also recorded inflows of $147.3 million on April 6, it experienced an outflow on May 6 [4][5]. These specific instances highlight IBIT's strong position, but daily ETF flows are a useful, albeit noisy, indicator and do not constitute a full second-half forecast [2]. The market also exhibits significant volatility, as evidenced by about $390 million in redemptions during an August 10–14 period, contrasting with a prior seven-day streak in March that saw roughly $1.17 billion in inflows, interpreted as structural institutional allocation [3][2].
Sources (5)
- 1Crypto ETFs in 2026: Bitcoin, Ethereum and the Altcoin Wave Explained | ETF.cometf.com
- 2Bitcoin Breakout Stalls as ETF Outflows and Miner Selling Drain Market Demand - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 3'Institutional conviction is back': Bitcoin ETFs post longest inflow streak in five months | The Blocktheblock.co
- 4Spot bitcoin ETFs post five-day inflow streak totaling nearly $1.7 billion | The Blocktheblock.co
- 5Spot bitcoin ETFs report largest single-day inflow in six weeks, worth $471 million | The Blocktheblock.co
8. How might the large-scale Bitcoin options expiry in October 2026, particularly the 'max pain' price, influence spot prices on exchanges like CME and Deribit?
| October 2026 Max Pain Strike | Not precisely stated in available evidence [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Baseline | Approximately $77,000 (with uncertainty $76,600-$77,300) [4][5][6] |
| Deribit Settlement Method | 30-minute time-weighted average of relevant index [1] |
Max pain can influence spot Bitcoin prices conditionally, especially near expiry. The precise 'max pain' strike for the large-scale Bitcoin options expiry in October 2026 is not stated in the retrieved evidence [1][2][3]. However, max pain can influence spot prices on exchanges like Deribit through pre-expiry hedging and position management pressures, particularly when open interest is high and expiry is near [1]. This influence is a conditional effect on spot prices rather than a guaranteed forecast [1][7]. A significant concentration of open interest near expiry may draw prices toward a max-pain area. The most plausible effect on spot price is conditional: if Bitcoin is below the max-pain region, short-option hedging or dealer rebalancing could generate buying pressure, leading to an upward drift; conversely, if above, analogous selling could create downward pressure [7][1]. Deribit options settle against a 30-minute time-weighted average of its relevant index, so any influence should be understood as pre-expiry hedging pressure rather than a mechanical settlement at the max-pain strike [1].
Max pain's influence is often overshadowed by other significant market factors. The effect of max pain can be weak or absent when directional news, ETF flows, liquidations, or insufficient liquidity dominate the market [7][1]. Broader spot drivers frequently overwhelm expiry effects; for instance, an August 2026 market report highlighted ETF redemptions, miner selling, and weak demand as competing sources of Bitcoin supply pressure that should be considered before attributing a price movement solely to options expiry [4]. It is also important to note that the prediction market resolves using the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which can differ from Deribit's own index [5][4]. A practical baseline derived from retrieved market snapshots for the prediction market timestamp is approximately $77,000, with material uncertainty spanning roughly $76,600-$77,300, indicating a range rather than a precise max-pain pin [4][5][6].
Sources (7)
- 1Maximum Pain For Option Buyers Going Into Expiration - Deribit Insightsinsights.deribit.com
- 2Option Max Paindocs.coinglass.com
- 3Bitcoin Options Max Pain, Deribit Options Max Pain, Exchange Options Max Pain Chart | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
- 4Bitcoin Breakout Stalls as ETF Outflows and Miner Selling Drain Market Demand - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 5BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 7Bitcoin's Resistance Play: Call Ratio Strategy - Deribit Insightsinsights.deribit.com
9. Does the historical price action following the 2020 and 2024 Bitcoin halving events suggest a bullish or bearish market cycle phase for late 2026?
| Typical Post-Halving Bullish Period | Approximately 12–18 months [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Time Since 2024 Halving by Oct 2026 | Approximately 30 months [3][2] |
| Projected 2026 Price Drawdown | Roughly 50% drawdown from above-$125,000 to about $60,000 by 2026 [3][2][4] |
Historically, Bitcoin's post-halving period shows a bullish phase for 12-18 months. Bitcoin halving cycles have typically demonstrated a bullish market phase lasting approximately 12 to 18 months following the event, with prior peaks, such as the 2021 bull market peak after the 2020 halving, occurring within this timeframe [1][2]. By October 31, 2026, the April 2024 halving will have been approximately 30 months prior [3][2]. If historical patterns were to strictly repeat, this period would fall well beyond the traditional post-halving peak, implying a mature, post-peak, or bearish market phase for late 2026 [3][2].
The 2024 Bitcoin cycle significantly diverged from traditional halving patterns. This cycle notably saw Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before the April 2024 halving [3][2][4]. Described as underperforming previous epochs, this cycle potentially involves a substantial roughly 50% drawdown from a high above $125,000 to approximately $60,000 by 2026 [3][2][4]. The market context for late 2026 has been mixed-to-bearish, evidenced by weekly spot-Bitcoin-ETF redemptions totaling about $390 million, ongoing miner selling, and waning breakout momentum, with Bitcoin prices near $64,000 [5][6]. Although market snapshots for an October 31, 2026 contract showed varying implied probabilities for BTC at or above $76,600 and $77,000, these are event-market prices and do not signal a long-term bullish cycle [5][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1History suggests this Bitcoin bull run may continue for another 5 months: analyst By Investing.comng.investing.com
- 2Is the Bitcoin halving cycle dead? Here’s what comes next By Crypto.newsinvesting.com
- 3Bitcoin Cycle Shifts as Institutions Build Positions and Volatility Falls | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 45 Key Catalysts That Shaped Bitcoin's 2024 and Set the Stage for 2025 | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5Bitcoin Breakout Stalls as ETF Outflows and Miner Selling Drain Market Demand - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 6CLARITY Act Odds Collapse to Record Low as Senate Delays Shake Crypto Market Confidence - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 7BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 8BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The prediction-market contract for BTC on October 31, 2026, at 2:00 a.m. EDT, utilized the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index. The leading threshold required $76,600 or above at 99% implied probability, with approximately $281,169 in event volume, and resolved at 6:00 a.m. UTC [1]. Contemporaneous indicators positioned BTC near $77,000–$77,200 around this hour [2][3]. The prevailing short-term backdrop on October 30–31 was bearish-to-neutral; BTC was reported around $76,300–$77,000, having fallen about 8.4% in October [4][5]. This downward pressure arose from a reported $6.3 billion Binance hack, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, weak spot/ETF demand, and risk-off technology sentiment [4][6][5][7]. Cited support areas ranged approximately from $73,000–$77,600, with nearer bids around $78,000–$79,000 and a short-term-holder cost basis near $75,800 [6][5][7][8].
Throughout October, several significant catalysts shaped market sentiment. The FOMC proceedings took place on October 27–28, followed by its decision on October 28 [9][10]. October 29 saw the release of advance Q3 GDP and September PCE data, alongside Strategy/Coinbase earnings [9][10]. A substantial $10.9 billion of Deribit BTC options expired on October 30 [9][10]. The period of October 30–31 also involved the ongoing assimilation of ETF-flow and security-incident information [4][6][5][7][11]. Earlier in the month, the October CPI report on October 14 was identified as the largest single macro event [9][12]. While bullish catalysts, including historically strong October seasonality, cooling inflation readings, and potential eventual Fed easing, were present, these were largely outweighed or unconfirmed by negative spot demand, soft ETF flows, elevated yields, and the hawkish Fed hold by October 31 [5][7][12][13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 31, 2026
- Expiration: November 07, 2026
- Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Bitcoin price Today at 12:45 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
- 3BTC price today, 31 October 2026 — live chart & history | Tindextindex.app
- 4Live updates: Bitcoin falls below $77,000 as Binance exploit combines with tech woescoindesk.com
- 5Bitcoin On Track To Post Weakest October In Six Years As US Buyers Retreat Ahead Of Fed Decisionfinance.yahoo.com
- 6Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
- 7A Hawkish Hold as Midterms Loom | State of the Markettalos.com
- 8Bitcoin Is Beating the S&P 500, so Why Is $85,000 Still Out of Reach?finance.yahoo.com
- 9Bitfinex Lists 17 Macro Catalysts That Could Move Bitcoin in Octobernews.bitcoin.com
- 10Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
- 11Bitcoin Prediction Markets: Where Will BTC Finish October?predictmatters.com
- 12Three Oct Catalysts: Is Bitcoin Entering a Bull Phase? | BITbit.com
- 13Bitcoin is trading near $84,000: How high will BTC go in October?news.kalshi.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26OCT3101-T86799.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3101-T86699.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3101-T86599.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3101-T86499.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3101-T86399.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
