Short Answer

Bitcoin is expected to trade at $68,100 or above by October 31, 2026, 3am EDT, with the best-supported BTC/USD estimate for that resolution time at $77,100-$77,200; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • BTC price on Oct 31, 2026, estimated near $77,100-$77,200 by other prediction markets.
  • Institutional spot Bitcoin ETF demand maintains a cautiously constructive outlook.
  • Federal Reserve easing or U.S. market-structure legislation could lift prices.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
$77,200 or above 28.0% 37.4% The best-supported estimate reaches $77,200; other prediction markets show a higher likelihood.
$77,000 or above 93.0% 93.3% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
$77,100 or above 71.0% 75.8% Other markets (Public.com, Robinhood) indicate a higher likelihood for this threshold, aligning with the $77,100 estimate.
$77,300 or above 6.0% 9.3% Other prediction markets indicate a higher likelihood for this threshold, despite being above the estimated range.
$77,400 or above 3.0% 3.2% Other market probabilities show a notable discrepancy for this threshold.

Current Context

Specific market predictions center BTC around $77,100–$77,200 for 3:00 a.m. EDT on October 31, 2026. Public.com showed the leading $77,100–$77,199.99 range held 32% of predictions, with the $77,200–$77,299.99 range at 23% [1]. This contract resolves using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index immediately prior to 3:00 a.m. EDT (07:00 UTC) [1]. Nearby recorded prices were approximately $77,149 at 05:08 UTC and $77,297 at 06:07 UTC [2]. Daily reference data for October 31, 2026, placed BTC near $77.1K–$77.2K, with Yahoo Finance reporting a $77,162.93 close, Twelve Data a $77.12K close, and Myfin a $77,234 close; these are daily values, not an exact 3:00 a.m. EDT tick [3][4][5].
Broader market forecasts saw BTC in the mid-to-high $76K or $77K range for the day. Polymarket's leading noon-ET closing band was $76,000–$78,000 at 86%, while Aries' CF Benchmarks market assigned high probabilities to thresholds through $76,000 and 68% to $77,000 [6][7][8]. These broader prediction market contracts referenced different resolution times and did not target the exact 3:00 a.m. price. Key late-October developments included macro and market-structure factors: Rootstock Labs cited oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation pressure, alongside a Fed target range of 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, which had two dissenting votes for a hike [9]. ETF outflows exceeded $600 million in the week to October 9, and hashrate was around 1,074 EH/s [9]. FXStreet reported a Binance security incident, heavy liquidations, and BTC down over 3% for the week [10].
Expert views and short-term forecasts for BTC remained divided. Galaxy's Alex Thorn suggested the bear market ended in June and favored accumulation, citing 87,000 BTC in spot-ETF additions post-June [11]. Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen foresaw a potential year-end move above $100,000, while LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy projected an $85,000–$95,000 year-end range, influenced by macro and rate pressure [12]. Analysts also identified the October 28 Fed meeting, Strategy earnings, November 3 U.S. midterms, ETF flows, and big-tech earnings as major catalysts [13]. Short-term technical forecasts were mixed: FXGlory maintained a conditional bullish weekly thesis but noted bearish H4 momentum and downside references near $78,676 and $76,849 [14]. A 24/7 Wall St. summary of an AI forecast put the October 31 close around $80,000, with a likely range of $77,000–$84,000, but assigned only a 25% chance of finishing above the October open [15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1BTC price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
  3. 3Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4Bitcoin to US Dollartwelvedata.com
  5. 5Bitcoin (BTC) Price History, Chart | Historical Data for Bitcoinmyfin.us
  6. 6Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
  7. 7Bitcoin price on October 31?probsee.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Price 2026 Odds & Predictions | Ariesaries.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Forward, October 2026: Macro Pressure Meets Institutional Build-Out - Rootstock Labsrootstocklabs.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
  11. 11Now is the time to accumulate bitcoin, Galaxy sayscoindesk.com
  12. 12Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
  13. 13Bitcoin Investors Look To Mid-Term And Fed Meeting Results Amid Range-Bound Tradingforbes.com
  14. 14BTC/USD Forecast 24–31 Oct 2026: Bullish | Updated 31 Oct 2026fxglory.com
  15. 15Where Could Bitcoin End October? We Asked ChatGPT AI - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if the final Bitcoin price at 3:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2026, is at or above the specific threshold for that contract; otherwise, it resolves "No". The final Bitcoin price is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, which are collected during the last minute before the market's expiration.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
$68,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 99%
$76,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 99%
$76,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 99%
$76,800 or above $0.99 $0.02 99%
$76,900 or above $0.98 $0.03 98%
$77,000 or above $0.94 $0.07 93%
$77,100 or above $0.71 $0.30 71%
$77,200 or above $0.27 $0.74 28%
$77,300 or above $0.07 $0.94 6%
$77,400 or above $0.03 $0.98 3%
$78,500 or above $0.02 $1.00 2%
$77,500 or above $0.02 $0.99 1%
$77,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$77,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$77,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$78,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$68,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$68,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$69,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$70,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$71,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$72,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$73,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$74,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,600 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,700 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,800 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$75,900 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,100 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,300 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$76,500 or above $1.00 $0.01 0%
$77,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$78,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$79,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$80,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$81,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$82,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$83,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$84,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$85,900 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,000 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,100 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,200 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,300 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,500 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,600 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,700 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%
$86,800 or above $0.01 $1.00 0%

Market Discussion

Public discussion primarily reflects prediction market pricing for Bitcoin on October 31, 2026, at 3:00 AM EDT, which offered price ranges and thresholds rather than a single settled value [1][2][3]. Based on available snapshots, the collective market sentiment pointed to an expected price around $77,100–$77,200, with one range market specifically implying $77,100–$77,199.99 as the leading interval [1][2]. Threshold markets further indicated approximately 84% probability for BTC at or above $77,100, and 60% at or above $77,200 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1October 31, 2026: BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2BTC price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 84 Good

Largest single print on KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T76799.99 carried 39% of its $4,506 tape (window is 43% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score88Strong
Trade quality20% of score67Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score84Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
88Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T76799.99 carried 39% of its $4,506 tape (window is 43% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
68Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

15 contracts · worst first · 173 below the volume floor — not scored

$78,400 or above33
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$77,800 or above39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$77,700 or above42
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$78,500 or above47
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$77,600 or above53
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$76,600 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$76,700 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$76,900 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

$77,000 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

$77,100 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

$77,200 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

$77,300 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

$77,400 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$77,500 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$76,800 or above87
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.0% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

15 contracts · worst first · 173 below the volume floor — not scored

$76,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$76,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$76,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$76,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$77,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$78,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$78,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

15 contracts · worst first · 173 below the volume floor — not scored

$76,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$78,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$78,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
67Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 68 (notional-weighted across 15 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 91.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.7c slippage (<1% of a 91.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.2c slippage (~2% of a 91.5c contract)

173 below the volume floor — not scored

$76,600 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,700 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,800 or above87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.0% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$76,900 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,000 or abovePrimary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,100 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,200 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,300 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,400 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,500 or above65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,600 or above53Market scoreLiquidity53Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 53
Liquidity
53 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,700 or above42Market scoreLiquidity42Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 42
Liquidity
42 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$77,800 or above39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$78,400 or above33Market scoreLiquidity33Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 33
Liquidity
33 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$78,500 or above47Market scoreLiquidity47Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 47
Liquidity
47 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. How might the long-term price effects of the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, as modeled by frameworks like Stock-to-Flow, influence BTC's trajectory towards October 2026?

Prediction Market Cluster$77,000–$77,500 [1][2]
Probability $68,100+99% [1]
Probability $77,20060% [1]
Bitcoin halving effects are plausible but not mechanically predictive for 2026. The long-term price effects of the April 2024 Bitcoin halving are considered directionally plausible when modeled by frameworks such as Stock-to-Flow, yet they are not regarded as mechanically predictive for BTC's trajectory towards October 2026 [1][3][4][5][6][7]. For the October 2026 market, prediction market signals suggest a more conservative outlook than extreme Stock-to-Flow extrapolations, with traders largely concentrating around approximately $77,000 rather than clearly pricing a six-figure outcome [1]. Beyond the reduced new supply resulting from the halving, other significant demand variables include institutional and regulatory adoption, alongside the development of stablecoin infrastructure [1][3][4][5][6][7]. These are evaluated in conjunction with factors such as weak U.S. search interest and persistent crypto volatility [1][3][4][5][6][7].
October 2026 prediction market implies a cluster near $77,000. The prediction market resolving on October 31, 2026, at 3:00 a.m. EDT, showed a market-implied distribution clustered near $77,000–$77,500 [1][2]. Specific contract probabilities for this market indicated a 99% probability for $68,100-or-above, a 95% probability for $77,000-or-above, and a 60% probability for $77,200 [1]. This particular market is characterized as hourly and crypto-specific, representing a short-horizon, market-implied distribution rather than a validated structural forecast of Bitcoin's long-term fair value [1][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2October 31, 2026: BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3Kalshi Completes Block Trade with Jump Tradingbitcoinfoundation.org
  4. 4Bitcoin Search Interest in the US Plunges to a Five-Year Low Despite Crypto’s Political Momentum - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
  5. 5New Crypto Banking Era: Stablecoins Transform Global Paymentsbitcoinfoundation.org
  6. 6SEC Grants Clearing Agency Status to Paxos, First for Blockchainbitcoinfoundation.org
  7. 7MiCA Doesn’t Solve All Europe’s Crypto Regulation Problemsbitcoinfoundation.org
  8. 8Bitcoin price Above/belowkalshiscan.com

6. What do on-chain metrics, specifically long-term holder supply and exchange reserves on Coinbase and Binance, indicate about market sentiment leading into Q4 2026?

Long-term Holder BTC15.26 million BTC (May 2026) [1][2]
Binance BTC Reserve DeclineFrom ~670,000 BTC (Feb 21) to ~620,000 BTC (May 7, 2026) [3][4]
BTC PriceNear $78,000 (October 30, 2026) [5]
Leading into Q4 2026, on-chain metrics suggest a cautiously constructive market sentiment. Rather than euphoric bullishness, the market appears to be in a phase of accumulation under stress, indicating a moderately bullish outlook over a multi-week horizon [6][7][1][2]. This trend suggests coins are moving towards stronger hands and away from exchanges, potentially increasing upside sensitivity should new demand emerge [8][7][3][5]. Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after a period of distribution, a behavior that Glassnode reported in July 2026 to have broadened across various wallet cohorts [7]. CryptoQuant further noted in May 2026 that long-term holders held approximately 15.26 million BTC, accumulating over 316,000 BTC in the preceding 30 days, signaling a constructive structural development, though not guaranteeing an uninterrupted bull trend [1][2].
Exchange reserves indicate tightening immediately tradable supply on centralized platforms. CryptoQuant reported on May 7, 2026, that Binance's BTC reserves decreased from about 670,000 BTC on February 21 to roughly 620,000 BTC, while aggregate reserves across Binance, OKX, and Gemini collectively fell by nearly 100,000 BTC [3][4]. Generally, lower exchange reserves are associated with reduced potential selling pressure [3]. Glassnode's July 2026 research also highlighted that Coinbase and Binance spot order books became more bid-oriented [7]. However, it is important to contextualize raw reserve changes, as a notable Binance reserve decline was linked to a hack, as highlighted in CryptoQuant's October 30, 2026, update, which also reported a Coinbase Advanced net outflow of 4,012 BTC [5].
Despite supply tightening, several factors point to fragile demand and limited retail enthusiasm. These include persistent ETF outflows, a negative Coinbase Premium, elevated leverage, defensive options positioning, and weak US search interest for Bitcoin [6][7][1][2]. The primary risk for Q4 2026 is that the observed accumulation represents a period of accumulation during a correction rather than the definitive start of an expansion phase. This constructive outlook could be invalidated by continued ETF outflows, liquidation risks driven by high leverage, or renewed inflows to exchanges [8][7][3][5]. Public's market-implied probabilities for October 31, 2026, indicated a strong likelihood (99% Yes) of BTC being at least $68,100, with approximately 94% for $77,000 or above, and 60% for $77,200 or more [8]. CryptoQuant's update on October 30 placed BTC near $78,000, following an October high near $86,000 [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin Market Enters a Critical Crossroad Amid Leverage Risks and ETF Outflows | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  2. 2[28 May 2026] Holding Without Buyers: Rising BTC Long-Term Holder Supply Masks the Absence of New...cryptoquant.com
  3. 3Over $8 Billion in Bitcoin Leaves Binance, OKX and Gemini as Exchange Reserves Fall to 2023 Lows...cryptoquant.com
  4. 4Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - Binancecryptoquant.com
  5. 5Quicktake | CryptoQuantcryptoquant.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Search Interest in the US Plunges to a Five-Year Low Despite Crypto’s Political Momentum - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
  7. 7表象之下的吸筹research.glassnode.com
  8. 8BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

7. How does the bullish case for BTC in H2 2026, based on potential Federal Reserve easing, compare against the bearish case driven by persistent inflation and high Treasury yields?

Fed Total Assets (July 2026)about $6.7 trillion [1][2][3]
Fed Reserves (July 2026)about $3.1 trillion [1][2][3]
Stablecoin Market Size (August 2026)above $300 billion [4][5]
Bitcoin's H2 2026 outlook balances Federal Reserve easing against persistent inflation. The bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC) in the second half of 2026 depends on potential Federal Reserve easing, where cooling inflation might prompt the Fed to reduce interest rates or maintain/increase liquidity. Such actions could decrease real yields and weaken the dollar, thereby loosening financial conditions and enhancing BTC's upside due to its high-beta and sensitivity to liquidity [1][2]. Conversely, the bearish scenario is primarily driven by inflation that remains persistent, which would necessitate the Fed to maintain a cautious or restrictive monetary stance. High Treasury yields would consequently raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as BTC, potentially pressuring valuations, liquidity, and leveraged crypto positions [1][2].
Existing liquidity channels and crypto-specific growth bolster Bitcoin's bullish prospects. These channels include ongoing Treasury-bill purchases and substantial reserves, providing a supportive backdrop for the bullish outlook. The Federal Reserve concluded its balance-sheet runoff in December 2025 and subsequently acquired nearly $250 billion in Treasury bills by July 1, 2026. This activity contributed to total assets of approximately $6.7 trillion and reserves around $3.1 trillion [1][2][3]. This level of liquidity can support risk assets, even in the absence of aggressive interest rate reductions. Furthermore, crypto-specific elements, such as increasing institutional adoption and a stablecoin market valuation surpassing $300 billion by August 2026, could further strengthen a bullish case for BTC [4][5]. However, these crypto-specific factors cannot counteract a macro-driven risk-off shock.
Federal Reserve minutes confirm elevated inflation constrains future monetary easing. The bearish thesis, however, finds more direct support from the Federal Reserve's ongoing challenge with elevated inflation [6][1][2]. Minutes from the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting acknowledged solid economic expansion and stable labor market conditions but noted that inflation remained elevated. This suggested a cautious-easing scenario rather than a clear dovish pivot [1][2]. Similarly, the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting indicated that inflation continued to be above the target, which limits the potential speed and scale of any future easing measures [1][7]. The official records' consistent description of elevated inflation reinforces the risk of its persistence [1][2]. While a market snapshot showed Bitcoin's price above approximately $77,000, this primarily reflected the near-term spot price and did not definitively confirm broader monetary easing or the beginning of a sustained rally in the second half of the year [6][8][1][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1The Fed - Monetary Policy:federalreserve.gov
  2. 2The Fed - Monetary Policy: Monetary Policy Report (Branch)federalreserve.gov
  3. 3Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2026federalreserve.gov
  4. 4Bitcoin Search Interest in the US Plunges to a Five-Year Low Despite Crypto’s Political Momentum - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
  5. 5New Crypto Banking Era: Stablecoins Transform Global Paymentsbitcoinfoundation.org
  6. 6BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  8. 8Bitcoin price Above/belowkalshiscan.com

8. What specific regulatory actions from the SEC or crypto legislation from the U.S. Congress could act as major price catalysts for Bitcoin before Q4 2026?

CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) House PassageJuly 17, 2025 [1]
SEC Crypto Interpretation DateMarch 17, 2026 [2][3]
Paxos Securities Settlement Co. RegistrationMay 2026 [4]
Major price catalysts for Bitcoin before Q4 2026 are expected from comprehensive market-structure legislation by the U.S. Congress. Enactment of such legislation is considered the highest-impact catalyst, notably through bills like H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act, which passed the House on July 17, 2025, and continued Senate committee work on initiatives such as the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (S.4064/S.3755-related work) in 2026 [1][5]. A final law would significantly reduce legal uncertainty and attract institutional capital by allocating jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, defining digital commodities, and enabling compliant trading venues [1][6][7][8][5]. Provisions specifically treating Bitcoin as outside SEC securities jurisdiction would be particularly strong positive catalysts [1][6][7][8][5]. Additionally, the GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025 for payment stablecoins, could indirectly support Bitcoin liquidity through its implementation rules or market uptake [6][7].
Several SEC actions could also serve as major positive catalysts for Bitcoin before Q4 2026. A formal implementation or expansion of the SEC's March 17, 2026, crypto interpretation would reduce U.S. legal uncertainty by classifying Bitcoin as a digital commodity/non-security crypto asset and clarifying treatment of related transactions [2][3]. The final adoption or broadening of the SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets (Release 33-11434) could unlock issuance and improve market sentiment by creating exemptions for certain crypto offerings [9][8]. Furthermore, favorable final crypto-custody rules for qualified custodians could increase regulated demand for Bitcoin [10]. Other SEC approvals, such as the registration of Paxos Securities Settlement Company as a clearing agency in May 2026, could also enhance institutional crypto access [4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Text - H.R.3633 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Asset Market Clarity Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2SEC.gov | SEC Clarifies the Application of Federal Securities Laws to Crypto Assetssec.gov
  3. 3Application of the Federal Securities Laws to Certain Types of Crypto Assets and Certain Transactions Involving Crypto Assetssec.gov
  4. 4SEC Grants Clearing Agency Status to Paxos, First for Blockchainbitcoinfoundation.org
  5. 5Text - S.4064 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  6. 6Cryptocurrency: Regulatory and Legislative Policy Issues | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  7. 7SEC Issues Crypto Guidance as Congress Considers MarketStructure Legislation | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  8. 8SEC Proposes ”Regulation Crypto Assets” | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  9. 9Proposed Rule: Regulation Crypto Assetssec.gov
  10. 10Proposed rule: Adviser and Regulated Fund Custody Rules; Crypto Custody Rulessec.gov

9. What does the trend in net flows for major spot Bitcoin ETFs from issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity suggest about institutional demand leading into late 2026?

Late-October Aggregate ETF InflowsApprox. +$440.8 million (Oct. 26-29) [1]
BlackRock IBIT Inflows$410.6 million (Oct. 26-29) [1]
BTC Implied Probability Above $68,100 (Oct 2026)99% [2][3]
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows a cautiously constructive outlook extending into late 2026. Recent trends indicate that net flows for major spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly led by BlackRock's IBIT, turned positive across the final four reported trading sessions [2]. This shift suggests a pattern of renewed institutional absorption and strategic dip-buying in the market [1].
Aggregate US spot Bitcoin ETF flows improved notably during late October, as highlighted by Farside data. Following net outflows of $635.6 million on October 22 and $137.9 million on October 23, the period from October 26 to October 29 registered substantial inflows totaling approximately +$440.8 million [1]. BlackRock's IBIT was instrumental in this rebound, contributing about $410.6 million in combined inflows during these dates, with Fidelity's FBTC adding $35.0 million [1]. However, the broader October activity was characterized by volatility, indicating institutional absorption and dip-buying rather than consistent, one-way accumulation [1].
Prediction markets reinforce confidence in Bitcoin's long-term price resilience. Public.com reported an approximate 99% implied probability that BTC would maintain a price at or above $68,100, $76,600, and $76,800 by the resolution date of October 31, 2026 [2][3]. This indicates robust support for downside resilience, rather than guaranteeing a specific Bitcoin price target or a sustained rally into late 2026 [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
  2. 2Bitcoin Search Interest in the US Plunges to a Five-Year Low Despite Crypto’s Political Momentum - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
  3. 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Near-term catalysts include the October 28 Federal Reserve decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference [1][2][3]. Macroeconomic data, such as October 29 Q3 GDP and September PCE data, also stand as drivers [1]. The October 30 approximately $10.9 billion Deribit monthly options expiry represents another key event [1][4].
Volatile ETF flows and the October 31 month-end settlement are significant [1][2][3]. A bullish scenario involves a dovish Fed outcome, improving ETF inflows, acceptance above roughly $82,500, and stronger risk appetite, which could support a move toward $84,000–$85,500 [2][3]. Conversely, a bearish scenario could stem from a hawkish Fed or a 25-basis-point hike, renewed ETF outflows, and a loss of roughly $79,250–$80,000, potentially exposing approximately $77,000–$77,786 or lower [2][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 31, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1Bitcoin price: prediction markets give 41% to a drop below $77,500 before October endspredictdesks.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Prediction Markets: Where Will BTC Finish October?predictmatters.com
  3. 3Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  4. 4Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTCD-26OCT3102-T86799.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26OCT3102-T86699.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26OCT3102-T86599.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26OCT3102-T86499.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26OCT3102-T86399.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)