Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Bitcoin to be at $50,600 or above on Jul 3, 2026 at 11am EDT, with a 99.3% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This divergence reflects Bitcoin's direct observation in the $61,390–$62,066 range at that time, supported by a weak U.S. non-farm payrolls report and a reversal in Bitcoin ETF outflows.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • BTC price is very likely above $61,300, observed trading $61,390–$62,066.
  • A price exceeding $62,100 appears unlikely, given the observed $62,066 peak.
  • Bullish catalysts, including weak U.S. payrolls, supported the recent price rebound.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Outcome — — Insufficient data

Current Context

Bitcoin recovered to the $61,000–$62,150 range on soft jobs data. This rebound follows weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data [^][^][^][^]. A significant factor was the reversal of a 10-day streak of Bitcoin ETF outflows on July 2, 2026, which provided short-term support and fueled a relief bounce [^][^][^][^].
Expert sentiment remains cautious, viewing the price action as a relief bounce. Key resistance levels are identified at $62,800 and $63,400, with support holding at $60,000–$60,500 [^][^]. Corporate Bitcoin sales policies are a market focus, specifically from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which now has flexibility to sell up to $1.25 billion in BTC for liquidity and capital management [^][^].
Prediction markets identify $60,000–$62,000 as the most likely outcome. There is high market interest in whether Bitcoin can sustain levels above $61,000 leading into the U.S. holiday weekend [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content consists only of navigation links and does not contain the specific contract rules, triggers for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for the Kalshi prediction market. Therefore, I cannot summarize these details based on the given information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability

Market Discussion

On July 3, 2026, at approximately 11:00 AM EDT, Bitcoin was trading in the range of $61,400 to $61,900 [^][^][^]. This market activity was largely driven by a relief rally stemming from a weak U.S. jobs report, which fostered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and positive institutional sentiment as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows [^][^][^][^].

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 3, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality63
Healthy
Liquidity
63

188 contracts · worst first

$51,700 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$60,900 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,900 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,600 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,700 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,800 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,000 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,200 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$63,500 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$64,400 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$64,500 or above1
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,400 or above4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$61,000 or above6
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,500 or above7
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,300 or above12
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$61,200 or above27
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

$62,200 or above33
Very thin · low confidence

24h traded notional $2,045

$61,100 or above39
Very thin · low confidence

24h traded notional $2,810

$61,300 or above43
Thin · low confidence

24h traded notional $3,507

$61,400 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $10,934

$61,500 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $20,491

$61,600 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $35,280

$61,700 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $51,981

$61,800 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $52,306

$61,900 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $41,162

$62,000 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $17,061

$62,100 or above65
Tradeable · low confidence

24h traded notional $10,957

$50,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$50,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$50,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$50,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$51,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$52,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$53,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$54,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$55,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$56,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$57,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$58,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$59,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$60,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$63,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$64,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$65,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$66,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$67,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,400 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,500 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,600 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,700 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,800 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$68,900 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,000 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,100 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,200 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

$69,300 or above—
No price to anchor on

No price to anchor on

Move quality
—

No reading right now

188 contracts · worst first

$51,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$61,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$62,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$50,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$50,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$50,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$50,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$51,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$52,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$53,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$54,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$55,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$56,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$57,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$58,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$59,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$60,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$63,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$64,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$65,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$66,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$67,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,400 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,500 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,600 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,700 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,800 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$68,900 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,000 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,100 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,200 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

$69,300 or above—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

188 contracts · worst first

$51,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$61,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$62,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$50,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$50,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$50,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$50,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$51,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$52,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$53,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$54,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$55,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$56,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$57,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$58,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$59,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$60,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$63,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$64,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$65,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$66,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$67,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,400 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,500 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,600 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,700 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,800 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$68,900 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,000 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,100 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,200 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
$69,300 or above95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 3, 2026

5. What major macroeconomic catalysts, including Federal Reserve policy shifts and inflation trends, are projected to impact Bitcoin's price trajectory leading into July 2026?

Bitcoin Price (July 3, 2026)$61,700–$62,000 [^][^][^][^]
US Nonfarm Payrolls (June)57,000 new jobs [^][^][^][^]
All items CPI (May 2026)4.2% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]
Bitcoin recently rebounded due to favorable U.S. economic reports. As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin's price traded near $61,700–$62,000, recovering from lows below $60,000 [^][^][^][^]. This immediate boost followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for June, which reported 57,000 new jobs against a consensus expectation of over 113,000 [^][^][^][^]. This outcome reduced market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's communication signaled diminished inflation risks, serving as a crucial catalyst by easing investor concerns about a more restrictive monetary policy [^][^][^].
Persistent inflation and other uncertainties threaten future monetary policy. Despite the short-term relief, the overall macroeconomic landscape remains complex. A primary concern is persistent sticky inflation, with the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 4.2% year-over-year as of May 2026. This marks the largest annual increase since April 2023 [^][^][^][^][^]. Coupled with ongoing uncertainties in energy costs and trade tariffs, these factors are projected to continue pressing the Federal Reserve to maintain a data-dependent, restrictive monetary policy stance [^][^][^][^].

6. How do historical price models based on the 2020 and 2024 Bitcoin halvings project BTC's potential price range for mid-2026?

Projected Post-Peak PhaseMid-2026 [^][^][^][^]
Projected Cycle Low Range$35,000 to $75,000 [^][^][^][^]
Bitcoin Price (July 3, 2026)$61,390 to $62,066 [^][^][^][^]
Historical models projected mid-2026 as a post-peak consolidation phase. Following the 2020 and 2024 Bitcoin halvings, various historical price models, including the Akiba Cycle Model and other post-2024 analyses, anticipated that mid-2026 would signify a "bear" or "consolidation" phase after a market peak [^][^][^][^]. These analyses frequently projected a cycle low for Bitcoin in the latter half of 2026, specifically between October and December, with price expectations ranging from $35,000 to $75,000 [^][^][^][^].
The 2024 halving cycle's peak reached $126,000 in October 2025. This peak aligns with historical patterns, which typically show bull market peaks occurring 12 to 18 months following a halving event [^][^][^][^]. As of July 3, 2026, at approximately 11:00 AM EDT, Bitcoin's price is trading between $61,390 and $62,066, reflecting a recent market recovery influenced by weak US job market data [^][^][^][^].

7. How do the projected Bitcoin accumulation rates by spot ETFs (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity) through 2025 compare against the reduced rate of new BTC supply post-halving?

Daily BTC supply post-halvingapproximately 450 BTC per day [^][^][^]
ETF daily absorption ratesometimes moving 12x the daily mining supply [^]
Bitcoin price focus (July 3, 2026)$60,000 –$62,000 [^]
Spot Bitcoin ETFs consistently exceeded post-halving supply absorption rates. These ETFs consistently absorbed daily Bitcoin supply at rates significantly exceeding the new supply rate post-halving, which was approximately 450 BTC per day [^][^][^]. Throughout 2025 and into 2026, these ETFs became a dominant market force, sometimes absorbing up to 12 times the daily mining supply. This consistent institutional demand effectively superseded traditional miner-driven supply cycles, with ETF inflows becoming the primary marginal price driver rather than the post-halving supply reduction [^].
ETF impact varied, showing strong AUM retention despite volatility. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs acted as a significant demand driver, often absorbing multiples of daily mined supply, their overall impact was variable, characterized by periods of strong accumulation alongside significant distribution [^][^][^][^]. Despite this variability and Bitcoin experiencing more subdued growth and higher volatility in the 2024 cycle compared to historical post-halving periods, ETFs demonstrated sticky Assets Under Management (AUM) retention, even through substantial spot price drawdowns of up to 40% during 2025 and 2026 [^][^]. As of July 3, 2026, prediction markets highlighted a $60,000-$62,000 closing price as a key area of focus for Bitcoin [^].

8. What are the most reliable public data sources for tracking institutional capital flows into Bitcoin derivatives and spot ETFs, and what are their limitations for long-term forecasting?

ETF Flow Share3-5% of total BTC trading volume (10][^][^])
SEC Filings TimelinessToo slow and periodic for timely flow signals (13]) [^]
Institutional Flow NatureOften price-following rather than price-leading (13]) [^]
Several public sources reliably track Bitcoin institutional capital flows. For Bitcoin spot ETFs, Farside Investors and SoSoValue provide reliable data on institutional capital flows [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Tracking Bitcoin derivatives positioning is effectively supported by CoinGlass and CME Group market data [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Issuer disclosures and SEC filings offer a robust view of institutional flows, complementing these sources [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additional reliable platforms include Glassnode for monitoring issuer-linked balances and The Block for aggregated analytics [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Public data sources have significant limitations for long-term forecasting. ETF flows constitute only a minor portion, 3–5%, of total Bitcoin trading volume, often reflecting past performance rather than dictating future trends [^][^][^]. A critical limitation is the absence of clear gross flow data, hindering the ability to differentiate between arbitrage strategies, institutional portfolio rebalancing, and speculative retail engagement [^][^][^]. Moreover, institutional capital movements frequently react to price changes rather than predicting them, and substantial hedged basis-trade flows may not signal genuine directional demand for Bitcoin [^].
These sources suffer from reporting delays and inherent biases. Official issuer reports and SEC filings are often fragmented, too slow and periodic to provide timely flow signals [^]. Aggregated public data, such as that from SoSoValue, may not always reflect granular issuer-level details or complete market context [^][^][^][^][^][^]. CoinGlass, for instance, primarily indicates market positioning rather than actual capital commitment and can exhibit noise or reflexive tendencies [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Fundamentally, these public sources are descriptive rather than causal, capturing movements or positions without fully revealing underlying intent, proving incomplete across various venues, and susceptible to regime shifts that invalidate historical patterns [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Consequently, for long-term forecasting, these data are most effective when integrated as one component within a broader analytical framework, not as a solitary predictive model [^][^][^][^][^][^].

9. What evidence from corporate treasury filings since 2024 suggests a broader trend of either accumulation or distribution of Bitcoin among public companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)?

Public companies holding Bitcoin174–199 firms by mid-2026 [^][^]
Total BTC held by public companiesOver 1.2 million BTC (6% of total supply) [^][^]
Strategy's Bitcoin holdings847,363 BTC as of late June 2026 [^][^][^]
Public companies show aggressive Bitcoin accumulation since 2024, signaling a strategic shift. The number of firms holding significant Bitcoin positions has more than doubled between 2024 and mid-2026, reaching approximately 174 to 199 companies [^][^]. These entities collectively possess over 1.2 million BTC, which constitutes roughly 6% of the total Bitcoin supply [^][^]. This accelerated institutional interest led corporate treasuries to acquire around 131,000 Bitcoins in Q2 2025 alone, surpassing Bitcoin ETF purchases for three consecutive quarters [^]. This trend indicates a strategic move where companies increasingly regard Bitcoin as a premier asset for treasury diversification and an inflation hedge, favoring direct ownership [^][^].
Strategy remains the leading corporate Bitcoin holder, balancing accumulation with liquidity. The company (formerly MicroStrategy) possesses 847,363 BTC as of late June 2026, maintaining its position as the largest corporate holder [^][^][^]. While Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, it has adopted a more deliberate approach, simultaneously expanding its USD cash reserves to $1.4 billion. This expansion aims to ensure ample liquidity for debt service and preferred stock obligations [^][^][^]. The company has funded its Bitcoin acquisitions through various methods, including convertible loans and stock offerings [^][^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bitcoin (BTC) traded between approximately $61,500 and $62,000 on the morning of July 3, 2026, recovering from a mid-week low of ~$57,700 [^] [^] [^] [^] . This price action followed a weak U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for June, which showed only 57,000 new jobs against expectations [^][^][^][^]. The NFP data cooled Federal Reserve rate-hike fears, triggering a significant short squeeze [^][^][^].
Despite the NFP-driven rally, persistent bearish pressures included heavy outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during June, totaling approximately $4.5 billion [^][^][^][^]. Ongoing selling activity by large holders also contributed to these downward pressures [^][^][^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: July 03, 2026
  • Expiration: July 10, 2026
  • Closes: July 03, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Bitcoin (BTC) traded between approximately $61,500 and $62,000 on the morning of July 3, 2026, recovering from a mid-week low of ~$57,700 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: This price action followed a weak U.S.
  • Trigger: Non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for June, which showed only 57,000 new jobs against expectations [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The NFP data cooled Federal Reserve rate-hike fears, triggering a significant short squeeze [^] [^] [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTCD-26JUL0310-T69299.99: NO (Jul 03, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26JUL0310-T69199.99: NO (Jul 03, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26JUL0310-T69099.99: NO (Jul 03, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26JUL0310-T68999.99: NO (Jul 03, 2026)
  • KXBTCD-26JUL0310-T68899.99: NO (Jul 03, 2026)