Bitcoin price on Apr 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?

Past cycles show Long-Term Holders (LTHs) accumulate then distribute Bitcoin post-halving. In the 18 months following the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, LTHs—defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for over 155 days ^[1]—typically began with an accumulation phase during market bottoms and early bull runs, increasing their overall supply ^[2]. As market prices appreciated significantly, LTHs gradually entered a distribution phase, transferring coins to newer market participants and consequently decreasing the supply they held ^[4]. This pattern resulted in the rate of change in LTH supply shifting from positive during accumulation to negative during distribution over these periods ^[5].

The cost basis for LTHs typically rises throughout post-halving bull markets. The Long-Term Holder Realized Price, which represents the average acquisition cost for all LTHs, consistently increased during previous post-halving bull markets ^[6]. This upward trend indicates that coins accumulated by LTHs, or those maturing into LTH status, were often acquired at progressively higher prices as the market appreciated ^[4]. Additionally, when LTHs sold coins at a profit, the realized price of the remaining LTH supply could also increase if the selling LTHs had a lower cost basis than the overall average, effectively raising the average cost for those who continued to hold ^[4].

Early 2024 halving observations show unique Long-Term Holder selling patterns. Direct comparative data for the full 18 months post-April 2024 halving is not yet available. However, initial observations indicate a notable difference in early LTH behavior compared to previous post-halving cycles, with LTHs identified as selling at "historic levels" in the period leading up to and immediately following the April 2024 halving ^[3]. This early distribution, rather than a strong initial accumulation phase, suggests a potentially different initial rate of change in LTH supply compared to 2016-2017 and 2020-2021. Should this trend of LTH selling continue, it could lead to the aggregate cost basis of the remaining LTH supply increasing to higher levels sooner than in previous cycles, as coins with lower cost bases are distributed while new or remaining LTHs accumulate at current, elevated price points ^[4].

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during Q1 2026. Prominent funds such as IBIT and FBTC, along with others, recorded overall net outflows during the first quarter of 2026 ^[1]. A notable shift occurred in March 2026, which represented the first month of inflows for these exchange-traded funds since October of the previous year ^[2]. This ongoing dynamic highlights the sustained influence of institutional demand within the market for these investment vehicles ^[4].

However, direct correlation data between ETF flows and exchange balances is unavailable. The research does not provide specific quantitative information to directly correlate the velocity of these ETF net flows with changes in BTC balances on major exchanges, including Coinbase and Binance. The available sources primarily concentrate on the performance, inflows, and outflows of the ETFs themselves, and the general impact of institutional interest on the market ^[3].

Major investment banks anticipate several Federal Funds Rate cuts by year-end 2025. JPMorgan Asset Management projects the Federal Funds Rate will range from 4.50% to 4.75% by the end of 2025 ^[1]. Goldman Sachs also foresees three rate cuts in 2025 ^[4], aligning with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) median projection of 4.75% ^[5]. This forecast is further supported by SIFMA's median expectation of 4.50%-4.75% for the Federal Funds Rate by year-end 2025 ^[6].

Quantitative tightening is expected to continue reducing the Fed's balance sheet through 2025. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which stood at approximately $7.6 trillion as of March 26, 2026 ^[2], is projected to undergo further sustained reduction ^[1]. This reflects an ongoing decrease from its peak, with asset reduction continuing, albeit potentially at a slower pace, by year-end 2025.

Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 responds to liquidity projections. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 generally shows a positive relationship, indicating that Bitcoin's price movements often move in tandem with broader technology market sentiment ^[3]. This correlation is responsive to shifts in forward-looking liquidity projections, strengthening when increased liquidity is anticipated, such as through more aggressive interest rate cuts, and maintaining but weakening when liquidity tightening is expected ^[3].

Political betting markets indicate high odds for general crypto legislation. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, suggest an 82% probability that a "Clarity Act" will be signed into law by 2026 ^[1]. This reflects a broader industry expectation for major U.S. legislation to pass before the 2026 midterm elections ^[2]. Such legislation, exemplified by bills like the "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act of 2026" (S. 3611) ^[4], typically aims to establish comprehensive regulatory frameworks and provide legal clarity for digital assets ^[5]. These anticipated bills are generally perceived as offering regulatory certainty and market structure for digital assets rather than imposing outright bans on self-custody or direct limitations on mining energy consumption ^[5].

Specific restrictive crypto legislation lacks prediction market probabilities. The available research does not provide specific prediction market probabilities for the U.S. Congress passing restrictive crypto legislation that directly targets self-custody, imposes limitations on mining energy usage, or explicitly re-classifies Bitcoin in a negative or restrictive manner before the 2026 midterm elections. While bills such as the "BITCOIN Act of 2025" (S.954) exist ^[3], the research does not detail its specific provisions regarding re-classification or its likelihood of passage with associated prediction market odds. Furthermore, some reports indicate ongoing challenges and uncertainties in the legislative process for certain proposals, with suggestions that "the crypto bill is falling apart in Congress" ^[6].

December 2025 BTC options show increased volatility and bullish sentiment. Implied volatility for Bitcoin options expiring in December 2025 on Deribit demonstrated a notable increase, signaling heightened market uncertainty. Short-term implied volatility reached approximately 75%, while longer-dated expiries exhibited elevated levels around 70% ^[1]. The put/call ratio for these options was approximately 0.78 ^[1], indicating a predominantly bullish bias among market participants, with call options open interest significantly outweighing put options ^[1].

Open interest clusters indicate key market price expectations. The largest open interest strike prices for the December 2025 BTC options expiry are primarily concentrated between $85,000 and $90,000 ^[1]. Significant open interest is also evident around the $100,000 strike price, particularly with a substantial amount of call options ^[1]. Conversely, a notable presence of put options is observed within the $70,000 to $75,000 range ^[1]. The estimated "max pain" point for this December 2025 expiry is approximately $87,500 ^[1]. These strike price clusters highlight key levels of market expectation and potential hedging pressure, as traders position for the substantial year-end event ^[2].