BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
Bitcoin's price settled around $77,800 on September 11, 2026, exceeding the $68,500 threshold that the market priced with 99.0% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's primary movements were driven by macroeconomic data releases on consecutive days. A 22.0 percentage point drop on September 10 followed reports of higher-than-expected August producer inflation (PPI). This news, combined with rising oil prices and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, triggered a broad market sell-off that pushed down the contract's probability.
The following day, September 11, the market rebounded with an 11.0 percentage point spike. The catalyst was the release of August U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The report showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, which largely met market expectations. In reaction, Bitcoin's price rose to trade in a range near $77,800–$79,000, lifting the contract price.
- Bitcoin's price settled around $77,800, exceeding mid-range market expectations.
- August's CPI report signaled inflationary pressure, weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin established support around $76,000–$77,000, with resistance near $80,000–$82,000.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Bitcoin traded near $77,800–$79,000 late on September 11, 2026 [^] [^] . The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported August headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month [^][^][^]. Prior to this, market attention had focused on the inflation print, expected to guide Fed policy after a strong nonfarm payrolls report the previous week [^]. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September 16 meeting were present; some tools indicated up to an 85% probability for a 25 basis point increase [^][^][^]. Bitcoin volatility in the preceding week reflected shifting rate hike expectations, with BTC trading in the mid-to-high $70,000 range [^]. The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) serves as the primary benchmark for Bitcoin pricing, aggregating once-per-second data from major exchanges [^].
Technical indicators and sentiment reflected improvement. Bitcoin market sentiment, measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, recovered to 73 (Greed) on September 11 [^][^]. Technical indicators showed a nascent golden cross: the 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA [^][^]. Bitcoin held support at $76,000. Analysts identified the $80,000–$82,000 range as resistance for upward movement [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: $76,500 or above
📈 September 11, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 88.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the release of U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on September 11, 2026 [^][^]. Despite the CPI showing a 0.4% monthly increase and elevated Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, Bitcoin's price rose, settling around $77,800, thus exceeding the $76,500 outcome threshold [^][^]. This traditional news event directly influenced Bitcoin's spot price on the target date, leading to the market's upward adjustment [^][^][^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the available research.
Outcome: $78,000 or above
📉 September 10, 2026: 28.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 25.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 28 percentage point drop in the prediction market on September 10, 2026, was breaking macroeconomic news. Higher-than-expected August producer inflation (PPI) data, rising oil prices, and increased Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations triggered a broad market sell-off, pushing Bitcoin below $77,000 [^][^][^]. This swift price decline made the "$78,000 or above" outcome significantly less likely for September 11, causing the prediction market's price (probability) to drop [^][^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noise.
📉 September 08, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 56.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on September 08, 2026, was a decline in Bitcoin's spot price, fueled by adverse macroeconomic news. On that day, Bitcoin experienced downward pressure, falling from highs near $82,000 to approximately $78,300 [^][^]. This decline was attributed to traditional news including higher-than-expected August jobs data, increased Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and rising oil prices [^][^], which directly decreased the perceived likelihood of BTC being $78,000 or above. This traditional news appeared to coincide with the prediction market movement, making it the primary driver. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant in the provided research.
Outcome: $79,000 or above
📉 September 09, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop on September 9, 2026, was a confluence of traditional market and crypto-specific news that generated downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin experienced volatility due to escalating Fed rate hike fears, a Liquid Network security breach, and developments around a U.S. Treasury debt buyback, which saw it trading around $78,500–$78,600 [^][^][^]. This combination of macroeconomic and crypto-specific concerns likely reduced market confidence in the "$79,000 or above" outcome by September 11, 2026. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no specific posts or narratives were identified as influencing this price movement.
Outcome: $79,500 or above
📉 September 07, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 60.0% to 42.0%
What happened: The prediction market's 18.0 percentage point drop on September 07, 2026, was primarily driven by market reactions to a "hot nonfarm payrolls report" released on September 4 [^]. This economic data intensified concerns about stubborn inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, prompting a broader crypto market decline [^][^]. Bitcoin (BTC) consequently fell from its low $81,000s to a session low near $78,650 by September 7, placing it below the $79,500 threshold for the September 11 prediction outcome [^]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver in this instance.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves at 5pm EDT on the listed date. A "Yes" outcome is triggered if the final settlement price of Bitcoin is at or above the specific price target, while a "No" outcome is triggered if it is below the target. The settlement price is determined by averaging 60 prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before the 5pm EDT expiration.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
On September 11, 2026, Bitcoin's price rose following the release of U.S. inflation data, settling around $77,800 after previously nearing $79,000 earlier in the day [^]. Market sentiment on September 11, 2026, was a "tug-of-war" with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 67 (Greed) against a broader market pullback driven by hot inflation data, rising oil prices, and significant Bitcoin ETF outflows, which triggered a $568 million liquidation cascade [^]. Additionally, some analysts highlighted a long-term slump in social interest and engagement in crypto, with some debating whether this represents lasting reputational damage [^].
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXBTCD-26SEP1117-T69499.99 carried 76% of its $1,980 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 6d old)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good
Market integrity is low (53), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score65Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 4% of the price to slippage.
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How did the August 2026 U.S. inflation data, released on September 11, impact both Bitcoin's price and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations for the September 16 meeting?
| Bitcoin Price Movement Post-CPI | Initially dropped toward $76,700 before recovering slightly to approximately $77,400 [^] |
|---|---|
| August 2026 Headline Inflation | 3.4% [^][^][^] |
| Fed Rate Hike Expectation (Sept 16, 2026 meeting) | Nearly 90% for a 25-basis-point hike [^][^][^] |
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August 2026 on Friday, September 11, 2026 [^][^][^]. Following this release, Bitcoin's price experienced downward pressure, initially dropping toward $76,700 before recovering slightly to approximately $77,400 [^]. Historically, Bitcoin has often shown a muted or non-significant response to U.S. macroeconomic and monetary policy news, including CPI releases [^].
Elevated August 2026 inflation data substantially increased Fed rate hike expectations. The August 2026 CPI data indicated headline inflation of 3.4% and core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month, which exceeded the 0.2% forecast [^][^][^]. The data also showed a 0.4 percent monthly increase in the all items index for all urban consumers [^]. These figures prompted market participants to aggressively increase expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16, 2026, meeting to nearly 90% [^][^][^]. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes were already elevated ahead of the September 16 meeting, with CME FedWatch data showing a 62.4% probability of a 25 basis point increase as of September 9, 2026 [^].
7. What do key technical and sentiment indicators, such as the 50/200-day EMA 'golden cross' and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, suggest for Bitcoin's price stability on September 11, 2026?
| Golden Cross Confirmed | September 8, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 67 (Greed) [^] |
| Bitcoin Price (Sept 11, 2026) | $76,700-$77,200 [^][^] |
Bitcoin shows positive stability indicators, including a recent bullish 'golden cross'. A bullish 'golden cross,' a technical indicator where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average and typically signals bullish sentiment and trend direction, was confirmed for Bitcoin on September 8, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of September 11, 2026, Bitcoin's price is approximately $76,700-$77,200 [^][^], with the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index trading at $76,988.44 [^]. Prediction markets for this date further suggest an 86% probability of the price closing at or above $76,500 by 5:00 PM EDT [^][^].
Market sentiment indicates 'Greed,' but potential resistance levels loom. Concurrently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges market investor sentiment, stands at 67 as of September 11, 2026, signifying a market sentiment of 'Greed' [^]. This index ranges from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed) [^][^][^][^][^]. However, market analysis from September 9, 2026, identified a potential resistance ceiling for Bitcoin between $83,000 and $86,000 [^].
8. How did Bitcoin's price performance on September 11 compare with other risk assets like the Nasdaq 100 and safe-haven assets like Gold following the inflation report?
| Bitcoin Daily Decline | 0.95% (September 11, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 Futures Daily Decline | 0.43% (September 11, 2026) [^] |
| Gold Daily Increase | $48 to $4,389 per ounce (September 11, 2026) [^] |
Bitcoin and risk assets declined; Gold acted as a safe haven. On September 11, 2026, both Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced declines following the latest US inflation report. Bitcoin fell by 0.95%, while Nasdaq 100 futures saw a 0.43% decrease [^]. Conversely, Gold increased by $48 to $4,389 per ounce on the same day after the inflation data was released, performing as a safe-haven asset [^].
Bitcoin's price reflected its decline; markets anticipated specific ranges. Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,091.88 on September 11, 2026 [^]. Market participants closely monitored the inflation data to understand the Federal Reserve's potential actions for its September meeting [^]. Prediction markets for Bitcoin's price on September 11, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, generally expected prices to be above $72,500 to $76,500, with several contracts resolving around these benchmarks [^][^]. However, the provided sources do not contain definitive price data for Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, or Gold specifically at 5:00 PM EDT on that date [^].
9. What methodology does the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) use to calculate its price, and which exchanges are its primary data sources as of September 2026?
| Calculation Frequency | Once per second [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Calculation Methodology | Aggregates order book data for a weighted mid-price index [^][^][^] |
| Constituent Exchanges (July 2026) | Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, itBit, Kraken, LMAX Digital, Bullish Exchange, Crypto.com [^] |
BRTI calculates price by aggregating order book data. The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) determines its price by collecting and consolidating order book data from multiple constituent exchanges. This process creates a unified order book, which then maps transaction volume to marginal prices to produce a weighted mid-price index. The BRTI's methodology dictates that this index is calculated once per second [^][^][^].
Constituent exchanges support CME CF Bitcoin pricing products as of July 2026. These exchanges include Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, itBit, Kraken, LMAX Digital, Bullish Exchange, and Crypto.com [^]. The available research does not list specific constituent exchanges for September 2026.
10. What market structure evidence from exchange order books and the crypto derivatives market supports the consensus support/resistance levels of $76,000 and $80,000–$82,000 for Bitcoin?
| Key Support Range | $76,000–$77,000 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Key Resistance Range | $80,000–$82,000 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Probability of Closing Above $80k (Sep 11, 2026) | 1.5%–3.5% [^][^] |
Several factors indicate strong Bitcoin support around $76,000. The $76,000–$77,000 range is identified as a key technical support level, evidenced by the emergence of buyers near $76,350 in early September, which aligns with the estimated cost basis of active market participants [^][^]. Further market structure analysis supports the $76,000–$76,900 range, anchored by the 30-day cost basis of recent holders [^][^][^]. Additionally, the $75,000–$76,000 zone represents an area where dealer hedging can amplify price movements [^][^][^]. As of early September 2026, Bitcoin's price had been consolidating near $78,300 following a rally from late-August lows of $64,000 [^][^].
Significant resistance for Bitcoin is concentrated between $80,000 and $82,000. Historical price action shows the $80,000 zone as a dividing line between consolidation and rally attempts, with the $82,000–$83,000 range acting as a critical technical barrier linked to previous highs [^][^][^]. This resistance is further reinforced by the cost basis of short-term holders and a negative gamma concentration within the $80,000–$82,000 zone [^][^][^]. Dealer gamma positioning specifically identifies $82,000 as a major strike for negative gamma exposure, contributing to mechanical resistance [^][^][^]. Moreover, prediction markets in September 2026 assigned a low probability of approximately 1.5%–3.5% to Bitcoin closing above $80,000 or $82,000 by September 11, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The August US CPI report, released on September 11, 2026, signaled inflationary pressure and was a key market catalyst [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The Fed Is the Plumbing." data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. This data influenced Federal Reserve interest rate hike odds [^][^]. Heightened expectations for a September 16, 2026, Fed interest rate hike acted as major headwinds for Bitcoin [^][^][^][^].
The CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing a digital asset framework, has faced significant legislative hurdles [^] [^] . The Fed Is the Plumbing." data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Market expectations for its passage in 2026 declined ahead of the midterm elections [^][^]. Bullish catalysts for BTC in early September 2026 included signs of resilient institutional demand and strong inflows into regulated investment vehicles [^]. Bearish pressure was exerted by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, concerns over rising leverage, and softening retail participation [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: September 11, 2026
- Expiration: September 18, 2026
- Closes: September 11, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The August US CPI report, released on September 11, 2026, signaled inflationary pressure and was a key market catalyst [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This data influenced Federal Reserve interest rate hike odds [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Heightened expectations for a September 16, 2026, Fed interest rate hike acted as major headwinds for Bitcoin [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing a digital asset framework, has faced significant legislative hurdles [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26SEP1115-T87299.99: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26SEP1115-T87199.99: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26SEP1115-T87099.99: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26SEP1115-T86999.99: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26SEP1115-T86899.99: NO (Sep 11, 2026)
