BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT?
Short Answer
Bitcoin is expected to trade at $76,700 or above on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT, as recent price data approximately one hour before the observation window consistently places the asset above $77,300; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- Bitcoin price likely settles between $77,300 and $77,399.99, per recent data.
- Market probabilities for these mid-to-high thresholds appear underpriced.
Current Context
The Public market contract for October 31, 2026, at 4:00 AM EDT specifies the Bitcoin (BTC) observation. This is defined as the simple average of CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices over the 60 seconds preceding 4:00 AM EDT, not an exchange candle or daily close [1]. Public displayed a 98% implied probability for BTC at or above $76,600, $76,700, and $76,800 for this contract, which was estimated to resolve at 8:00 AM UTC [1].
Directly verifiable CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average for 4:00 AM EDT on October 31, 2026, is not provided by search results. However, nearby and end-of-day data indicate BTC prices around $77,000–$77,300. Yahoo Finance reported an October 31 daily open of $77,202.40, a high of $77,434.15, a low of $77,000.92, and a close of $77,269.20 [2]. Separately, 1bitcoin.in reported $77,292.12 at 06:10 UTC and $77,314.03 at 07:09 UTC [3]. Other aggregators showed October 31 closes near $77,234 and $77,221 [4][5]. A distinct October 31 prediction market, referencing Binance BTC/USDT's noon ET one-minute close, implied an 84%–85% chance of a $76,000–$78,000 close for that specific contract, but it should not be used as a proxy for the 4:00 AM EDT CF Benchmarks observation [6][7].
Late October 2026 market context exhibited mixed-to-bearish BTC sentiment amid macro pressures. Reported drivers included hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, elevated inflation and Treasury yields, ETF outflows, and a reported Binance security breach [8][9]. Analysts cited a near-term trading range of $70,000–$80,000. Year-end projections ranged from an $85,000–$95,000 base case to potentially above $100,000, contingent on institutional demand and broader macro conditions [8][10][11]. Key scheduled events influencing BTC volatility included the October 28 Federal Reserve meeting, October 29 Strategy and Coinbase earnings reports, October 31 eCash snapshot and contract expiries, and the November 3 U.S. midterm elections [8][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 3Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 4Bitcoin (BTC) Price History, Chart | Historical Data for Bitcoinmyfin.us
- 5BTC price today, 31 October 2026 — live chart & history | Tindextindex.app
- 6Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
- 7Bitcoin price on October 31? - Avrexavrex.net
- 8Bitcoin Forward, October 2026: Macro Pressure Meets Institutional Build-Out - Rootstock Labsrootstocklabs.com
- 9Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
- 10Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
- 11Bitcoin Investors Look To Mid-Term And Fed Meeting Results Amid Range-Bound Tradingforbes.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if the average Bitcoin price, determined at expiration, is $77,300 or above; otherwise, it resolves "No." The market expires on October 31, 2026, at 4:00 AM EDT. The final price is calculated by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before the market's expiration.
Market Discussion
The prediction market for BTC on Oct 31, 2026, at 4 a.m. EDT showed a 94% implied probability for the price to be $77,000 or above, with probabilities decreasing significantly above $77,200 (63%) and $77,300 (35%), leading to a practical CF Benchmarks settlement estimate near $77,100–$77,200 [1][2][3]. While contemporaneous exchange quotes on Oct 31, 2026, hovered around $77,000–$77,200 [1][2][3][4][5], broader market commentary for the day indicated a bearish-to-cautious sentiment due to significant crypto liquidations and Bitcoin ETF outflows [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2BTC price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3BTC price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 3am EDT?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4First Print 31 Oct: bitcoin near $77,000 on October's last daycryptowatchdesk.com
- 5Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Falls to $77K as $427M in Crypto Liquidations Hit, ETFs See $643M Outflowcryptotimes.io
- 6Bitcoin Report #219, 2026-10-31macroweapon.com
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score68Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.
Trust score85Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. How might the Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting and subsequent statements on inflation influence BTC volatility leading into the October 31 resolution?
| May 2026 PCE Inflation | 4.1% year over year (July 2026 Monetary Policy Report) [1] |
|---|---|
| Public BTC $76,600+ Odds | 98% (October 31 prediction market) [2] |
| Robinhood BTC $77,100+ Odds | 79% (October 31 prediction market) [3] |
Federal Reserve statements could significantly influence BTC volatility. Verification of the direct influence of the Federal Reserve's October 28, 2026 statement, its rate decision, or Chairman Powell's remarks on BTC volatility leading into the October 31 resolution is not possible based on the provided research [1]. However, potential market mechanisms suggest specific outcomes. If the Federal Reserve reinforced a "higher-for-longer" policy, pressure on interest rates and Treasury yields could increase BTC's downside risk and short-horizon volatility [1]. Conversely, commentary signaling confidence in inflation returning to the 2% objective might lead to a relief rally and upside volatility [1]. The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report previously indicated that May 2026 PCE inflation was 4.1% year over year, with core PCE at 3.4%, remaining elevated against the FOMC's 2% objective due to tariffs and energy shocks. Despite this, longer-term inflation expectations remained broadly consistent with 2% [1].
Prediction markets indicate BTC trading near $77,000 for October 31. Prediction market odds for October 31 place Bitcoin (BTC) near $77,000-$77,300, generally favoring BTC staying above $76,600-$77,100, though the exact final CF Benchmarks average is not yet established [2][3][4][1]. Public.com showed 98% probability for BTC at $76,600-or-above and 94% for $77,000-or-above [2]. Robinhood's odds included 79% for $77,100-or-above, decreasing to 32% for $77,300-or-above [3]. A shock driven by the Federal Reserve could primarily influence the resolution by moving BTC across the closely spaced $77,100-$77,400 thresholds during the final hours, given that market odds imply a materially lower probability at each higher threshold rather than forecasting a large breakout [2][3][4][1]. The contract will resolve using the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index observations collected during the final minute before 4:00 a.m. EDT on October 31, 2026 [2][3].
Sources (4)
- 1The Fed - Monetary Policy: Monetary Policy Report (Branch)federalreserve.gov
- 2BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
6. What is the consensus among institutional analyst reports from Q3-Q4 2026 for Bitcoin's price floor and ceiling surrounding the November U.S. midterm elections?
| Market-Implied Floor | Approximately $75,000-$76,600 (Oct. 31, 2026 contract) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Near-Term BTC Level | Around $77,000-$77,300 (Oct. 31, 2026 contract) [1][3][2] |
| Near-Term Ceiling | Approximately $77,500-$78,000 (Oct. 31, 2026 contract) [1][2] |
Institutional reports lack consensus on Bitcoin's Q3-Q4 2026 price. No consensus is evident among institutional analyst reports concerning Bitcoin's price floor and ceiling around the November U.S. midterm elections in Q3-Q4 2026. The retrieved search results do not show verifiable Q3-Q4 2026 institutional analyst reports from firms like Standard Chartered or Bernstein that provide election-specific BTC floors and ceilings. Consequently, any claims of an institutional consensus would not be supported by the evidence gathered [1][2]. Instead, the available evidence points to market-implied levels for the Oct. 31, 2026, 4:00 a.m. EDT contract [1][3][2].
Market-implied floor for Bitcoin is around $75,000-$76,600. For a practical market-implied floor surrounding the November 2026 midterms, the evidence suggests approximately $75,000-$76,600. Public's related October downside market showed only 7% for BTC below $75,000 and 2% below $72,500, with the hourly contract giving 98% odds to at least $76,600 [1][2]. Furthermore, prediction-market evidence shows a near-term BTC level around $77,000-$77,300 for the Oct. 31, 2026, 4:00 a.m. EDT contract. Public displayed probabilities including 94% at or above $77,000, 84% at or above $77,100, 63% at or above $77,200, and 35% at or above $77,300 [1][3][2]. Robinhood also displayed relevant values, such as $77,100 at 79%, $77,200 at 56%, and $77,300 at 32% [1][3][2].
Market-implied near-term ceiling is approximately $77,500-$78,000. For a practical near-term ceiling, the evidence supports approximately $77,500-$78,000. The Oct. 31 hourly market assigned a 6% probability to at least $77,500 and 1%-2% to at least $77,700-$77,800 [1][2]. A separate November 6 market indicated roughly 56% at or above $77,000, 50% at or above $77,500, and 45% at or above $78,000 [1][2]. It is important to note that the contract resolves using the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index observations during the final minute before 4:00 a.m. EDT on Oct. 31, 2026. This makes it a precise hourly settlement rather than a direct forecast for the November elections [1][3].
7. How did the forward guidance from MicroStrategy's and Coinbase's Q3 2026 earnings reports compare in their outlook for institutional crypto adoption?
| MicroStrategy BTC Holdings | 843,775 BTC as of July 26, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Coinbase Assets Under Custody | $300 billion [3] |
| MicroStrategy Q3 2026 Operating Income | $21 billion [4] |
MicroStrategy and Coinbase presented differing institutional crypto adoption outlooks for Q3 2026. Both companies reported their Q3 2026 earnings on October 29, 2026, yet offered distinct perspectives on the future of institutional engagement in crypto [4][5]. MicroStrategy articulated a concentrated, bullish thesis focused on institutions holding Bitcoin, while Coinbase offered a broader vision centered on infrastructure and diverse use cases. The full forward guidance from their Q3 2026 earnings reports was not fully available in the provided sources [4][6][7].
MicroStrategy's outlook centered on Bitcoin as a core institutional asset. The company described itself as the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, with a strategy heavily emphasizing Bitcoin treasury and capital-market products for institutions [3][1]. MicroStrategy reported Q3 2026 operating income of $21 billion and diluted EPS of $44.75 [4]. Its pre-Q3 2026 messaging consistently highlighted Bitcoin's institutional focus, having raised $17.06 billion through ATM programs and observing the expansion of Bitcoin ETF, trading, custody, and lending services by traditional finance [1][2]. As of July 26, 2026, MicroStrategy held 843,775 BTC [1][2].
Coinbase focused on diversified infrastructure supporting broad institutional engagement. The company's Q3 2026 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $1.22 billion [5]. Coinbase’s perspective on institutional adoption was comprehensive, spanning custody, ETFs, derivatives, financing, stablecoins, payments, enterprises, and banks [3]. Its Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter positioned Coinbase as a default institutional custody partner, noting $300 billion in assets under custody and custody of over 80% of U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets [3]. Coinbase also observed record institutional financing demand and anticipated growth in stablecoin adoption driven by increasing institutional interest among payment providers, enterprises, and banks [3].
Sources (7)
- 1Strategy Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsstrategy.com
- 2Strategy Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Resultsstrategy.com
- 3Q3'25 Shareholder Letterinvestor.coinbase.com
- 4Form FWP - Filing under Securities Act Rules 163/433 of free writing prospectusesbr.advfn.com
- 5Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock (COIN) Earnings Reports & Dates | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 6MSTR Key Dates: Important Dates for Strategy Investors – MSTR Investormstrinvestor.com
- 7Earnings Whispers | Strategy Inc (MSTR) Earnings Date, Estimate & Whisper Numberbeta.earningswhispers.com
8. What impact could the reported Binance security breach and resulting Bitcoin ETF flows have on price stability ahead of the October 31 contract expiries?
| Binance Breach Oct 30-31, 2026 | No substantiated evidence [1] |
|---|---|
| Specter Loss (BNB Chain, May-June 2026) | About $2.5 million [1] |
| Predicted BTC Resolution Price | Above ~$77,100-$77,200 [2][3][4] |
No verifiable Binance exchange breach occurred around October 30-31, 2026. The available evidence does not substantiate reports of a new Binance exchange breach during this period, thereby limiting any direct impact on Bitcoin price stability from such an event [1]. Although a genuine Binance custody or exchange breach could temporarily destabilize BTC, the retrieved information offers no verified breach size, Bitcoin outflow, or ETF-flow data specifically for October 31, which prevents quantification of the magnitude and direction of any potential impact from available sources [1][2][3][4]. Instead, the Binance-related security evidence that was retrieved describes incidents in May-June 2026 on the BNB Chain, where Specter experienced a loss of approximately $2.5 million and DxSale lost about $7.3 million. Some of the stolen BNB was reportedly sent to Binance deposit addresses, but this information does not provide evidence that Binance itself was compromised [1].
No current ETF flow data exists for the October 30-31, 2026 period. While ETF buying would generally provide a demand or liquidity offset to selling pressure from a breach, and ETF redemptions would reinforce downside pressure, no primary or dated ETF-flow figures were found for October 30-31, 2026 [2][3][4]. This makes any assessment of ETF impact a scenario analysis rather than a conclusion based on observed flows. Given that contract expiries resolve at a specific minute-level TWAP-like benchmark during a likely liquidity-sensitive window, short-lived liquidation or hedging pressure could affect the outcome, even if BTC subsequently mean-reverts [2][3][4]. Available prediction market snapshots implied that Bitcoin was expected to remain above approximately $77,100-$77,200 at resolution, with the market leaning toward a resolution near or above this range rather than a severe collapse [2][3][4]. Public reports indicated approximately $390,012.94 in event volume in one snapshot and $436,634.20 in another [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
- 1Two BNB Chain Hacks in a Week: Specter Loses $2.5Mbitcoinfoundation.org
- 2BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
9. What do Bitcoin's on-chain metrics from late October 2026 indicate about institutional accumulation or distribution near the $70,000 price level?
| Institutional Activity (Week 11 2026) | Accumulation near/above $70,000 [1] |
|---|---|
| Accumulation Trend Score (Week 07 2026) | Fragile neutral reading around 0.43 [2] |
| Prediction Market Price (Oct 31 2026) | Around $77,200-$77,300 [3][4] |
Direct institutional on-chain metrics for late October 2026 near $70,000 are not explicitly available. However, earlier observations in 2026 indicated a transition toward accumulation as Bitcoin approached and cleared this price range. During Week 11 of 2026, on-chain evidence suggested institutional accumulation above $70,000, supported by renewed spot ETF inflows, subdued CME futures positioning, a recovering positive spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), and positive Coinbase activity. These factors collectively implied spot-led institutional re-engagement [1]. At that time, Bitcoin had cleared a dense $59,000-$72,000 on-chain supply cluster, subsequently entering a thinner $72,000-$82,000 zone, indicating limited realized-price resistance above $70,000 [1].
Earlier in 2026, institutional sentiment showed mixed accumulation trends. Specifically, during Week 07, the broader market path was not uniformly bullish; as Bitcoin moved toward $70,000, the Accumulation Trend Score improved from strong distribution to only a fragile neutral reading around 0.43, alongside persistently negative spot ETF flows [2]. This indicated a shift away from distribution but did not suggest overwhelming large-entity accumulation [2]. By late August 2026 (Week 35), Glassnode reported a strengthening of institutional demand, evidenced by aggressive spot buying, expanding turnover and liquidity, and ETF net inflows surpassing historical thresholds [5].
Prediction markets suggested bullish sentiment, expecting prices above $70,000. Snapshots for October 31, 2026, showed a strong bullish sentiment, with the market-implied price level estimated near $77,200-$77,300 rather than $70,000 [3][4]. Furthermore, these prediction markets indicated low probabilities of Bitcoin falling below $72,500 or $75,000 [3][4]. It is important to note that these figures represent prediction-market prices and not direct on-chain measurements [3][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Supply Cleared, Conviction Pendingresearch.glassnode.com
- 2Range-Bound Under Pressureresearch.glassnode.com
- 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 4am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4USDC + USDT market cap at year end 2026? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5BTC Market Pulse: Week 35research.glassnode.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Deribit’s Oct. 30 monthly Bitcoin-options expiry was reported at 136,029 BTC, approximately $10.9 billion notional and 35% of total BTC options open interest, creating a major volatility and liquidity catalyst immediately before the target timestamp [3]. Bullish scenarios, such as softer-than-expected inflation, dovish central-bank communication, sustained ETF buying, or post-expiry short covering, could move BTC above the market’s $77,100–$77,300 threshold zone [4][1][3]. Conversely, higher real yields, hawkish Fed/ECB/BOJ signals, weak GDP/risk-off equities, ETF outflows, or options-expiry deleveraging could push BTC below this range [4][1][3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 31, 2026
- Expiration: November 07, 2026
- Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (4)
- 1Bitfinex Lists 17 Macro Catalysts That Could Move Bitcoin in Octobernews.bitcoin.com
- 2Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions, Coinbase earnings: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
- 3Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
- 4Bitcoin Price on October 31? | Lines.com Prediction Market Odds | Lines.comlines.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T86799.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T86699.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T86599.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T86499.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3103-T86399.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
