BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Market estimates suggest Bitcoin price comfortably above $77,000, reflecting overall upward pressure.
- Bitcoin options market positioning for December 2026 supports prices above $80,000.
- Scheduled Fed decisions and press conferences influence near-term hourly settlements.
Current Context
Sources (12)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Bitcoin price Today at 5:00 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
- 3Bitcoin | Smart Investors Dailysmartinvestorsdaily.com
- 4Bitcoin to US Dollartwelvedata.com
- 5Bitcoin price today: ETFs lose $643M after Binance hack – Coindarocoindaro.com
- 6Bitcoin price on October 31?polymarket.com
- 7Bitcoin price on October 31? - Avrexavrex.net
- 8Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
- 9Bitcoin and the Cycle Clock (October 2026) | Research Reports | Benjamin Cowenbenjamincowen.com
- 10Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
- 11Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
- 12Bitcoin Investors Look To Mid-Term And Fed Meeting Results Amid Range-Bound Tradingforbes.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if the Bitcoin price at 5 AM EDT on October 31, 2026, is at or above the specific threshold of the chosen contract (e.g., $77,200); otherwise, it resolves "No." The final price is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before the market's expiration.
Market Discussion
Prediction markets and related commentary indicate a reference price for BTC around $77,200 for 5:00 a.m. EDT on Oct 31, 2026, with Public.com's market showing a 99% implied probability for BTC at $76,400 or above and a leading interval of $77,200-$77,299.99 [1][2][3][4][5]. Broader prediction market discussions for Oct 31, 2026, also clustered BTC within the $76,000-$78,000 range, emphasizing that these figures are market-implied/settlement estimates rather than conventional exchange spot prices [6][7][8][1][2][3][4].
Sources (8)
- 1BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2BTC price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3Bitcoin price Today at 5:00 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
- 4Bitcoin price Today at 4:15 am ET Prediction & Odds - Bitcoin - OG.comog.com
- 5BTC 1H Analysis: Holds Below $78,081 Resistance as Traders Wait | TradingGain Newstradinggain.io
- 6BTC price on October 31: Gemini odds | PredictionsMarket.compredictionsmarket.com
- 7Bitcoin price on October 31?: Live Odds & Probability | Parideskparidesk.com
- 8Bitcoin price on October 31? — The social layer for prediction marketspredictstamp.com
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 6% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What combination of U.S. CPI and jobs report data through mid-2026 would most likely prompt the Federal Reserve to pivot to a dovish monetary policy, and what has been Bitcoin's historical price reaction to such pivots?
| Core CPI Pivot Threshold | 0.1–0.2% month-over-month [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Headline CPI Pivot Threshold | 2–3% year-over-year [1][2][3] |
| Payroll Gains Pivot Threshold | Persistently below 50,000 [1][2][3] |
Sources (9)
- 1Monetary Policy Report, July 2026federalreserve.gov
- 2Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M06 Resultsbls.gov
- 3Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M09 Resultsbls.gov
- 4The Fed - Monetary Policy: Monetary Policy Report (Branch)federalreserve.gov
- 5Why Is Crypto Going Up Today? One Fed Comment Sent Bitcoin Back Above $81K - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 6Bitcoin and Recession Signals in 2026bitcoinfoundation.org
- 7Bitcoin ETF Inflows Explode as Treasury Buybacks Hit Yields — Is an $80K Breakout Igniting the Next Crypto Rally? - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 8Bitcoin Enters Weak Seasonal Stretch As June Catalyst Test Nearsbitcoinfoundation.org
- 9Bitcoin Price Nears Rare Buy Zone as Kraken Sees 113% Returnsbitcoinfoundation.org
6. How do the long-term price models from bullish analysts like Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen (projecting over $100k) differ from more cautious outlooks like Benjamin Cowen's (highlighting downside risk) in their core assumptions about post-halving returns and macroeconomic factors?
| Bitwise Bitcoin 2035 Projection | $1.3 million (Bitwise) [1] |
|---|---|
| Bitwise CAGR to 2035 | 28.3% (Bitwise) [1] |
| Prediction Market October 2026 | $77,300 (market implied) [2][3][4] |
Sources (15)
- 1Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: 2025bitwiseinvestments.com
- 2BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026bitwiseinvestments.com
- 6Crypto Market Review (Q1 2026) | Bitwise Investmentsbitwiseinvestments.com
- 7Mid-Year Scorecard: Bitwise’s 2025 Predictions | Bitwise Investmentsexperts.bitwiseinvestments.com
- 8Bitcoin ETF Inflows Explode as Treasury Buybacks Hit Yields — Is an $80K Breakout Igniting the Next Crypto Rally? - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 9Why Is Crypto Going Up Today? One Fed Comment Sent Bitcoin Back Above $81K - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 10BTC Price Plunges to $59K, $1B Liquidations Hit Crypto Marketbitcoinfoundation.org
- 11Bitcoin and Recession Signals in 2026bitcoinfoundation.org
- 12Bitcoin Recovery Could Stretch Into August Even if Bottom Holdsbitcoinfoundation.org
- 13Bitcoin Enters Weak Seasonal Stretch As June Catalyst Test Nearsbitcoinfoundation.org
- 14JPMorgan: Private Blockchains Are Bitcoin's Biggest Risk in 2026bitcoinfoundation.org
- 15Trump Lockert Krypto-Regeln: Bereitet die USA gerade den nächsten Bitcoin-Boom vor? - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
7. What evidence from the Bitcoin options market, specifically the implied volatility and open interest for January 2026 and December 2026 expiries on exchanges like Deribit, supports a year-end price target above $80,000?
| Dominant Call Open Interest | $100,000-call open interest over $80,000/$85,000 put open interest (December 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| 50-delta Implied Volatility | 44.5% (December 2026) [1] |
| Jan/Dec 2026 Expiry-level OI/IV | Not found/unverified [2] |
Sources (6)
- 1Option Flow: 100k Call Surge - Deribit Insightsinsights.deribit.com
- 2Deribit - Crypto Options and Futures Exchange for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and more.assets-test.deribit.com
- 3BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5BTC price on Oct 31, 2026 at 5am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Is Data Suggesting That BTC's ETF Approval Is Priced in? - Deribit Insightsinsights.deribit.com
8. What are the most reliable public data sources for tracking the Bitcoin treasury holdings of companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla, and what is the timeline of their historical accumulation?
| Most Reliable Data Sources | SEC EDGAR filings and Investor Relations’ SEC filing archives [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
|---|---|
| MicroStrategy BTC Holdings (July 5, 2026) | 843,775 BTC [1][2][3][4][5] |
| MicroStrategy BTC Acquired in Q1 2025 | 80,715 BTC [3][4][5] |
Sources (13)
- 1MSTR-2025.12.31-10Ksec.gov
- 28-Ksec.gov
- 3Documentsec.gov
- 4EX-99.1sec.gov
- 5EX-99.1sec.gov
- 6ANNUAL STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIPir.tesla.com
- 7https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000095017023001409/tsla-20221231-gen.pdfir.tesla.com
- 8Tesla, Inc.ir.tesla.com
- 9Sec filingsir.tesla.com
- 10SEC Filings | Tesla Investor Relationsir.tesla.com
- 11Strategy Buys $101M in Bitcoin After Small But Loud BTC Salebitcoinfoundation.org
- 12Bitcoin and Recession Signals in 2026bitcoinfoundation.org
- 1312-Year Dormant Bitcoin Whale Moves $41M BTCbitcoinfoundation.org
9. Which potential regulatory milestones in the U.S. or E.U., such as the passage of stablecoin legislation or broader ETF approvals, have the clearest timelines for resolution before Q4 2026 and could act as major price catalysts?
| GENIUS Act Enactment | July 18, 2025 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| SEC Approval of Generic ETP Standards | September 17, 2025 [3][4] |
| Max Decision Date for 2025 ETF Filings | March 27, 2026 [5][6][7][3][4] |
Sources (11)
- 1Plaw 119publ27.htmcongress.gov
- 2Bills 119s1582enr.htmcongress.gov
- 3The text of the proposed rule change is also available on the Commission’s website (https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro.shtml), the Exchange’s websitesec.gov
- 4SEC.gov | A Special Generic: Statement on Commission Approval of Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based ETPssec.gov
- 5Fast-Tracking Digital Asset ETFs: Who’ssec.gov
- 6Fast-Tracking Digital Asset ETFs: Who’ssec.gov
- 7Fast-Tracking Digital Asset ETFs: Who’ssec.gov
- 8Consultation document - Targeted consultation on the review of Regulation on the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)finance.ec.europa.eu
- 9Consultation document - Targeted consultation on the review of Regulation on the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)finance.ec.europa.eu
- 10SEC Moves Toward Landmark ‘Regulation Crypto’ Framework for Digital Asset Offerings - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 11CLARITY Act or 2030? Senator Lummis Warns US Crypto Regulation Could Face Years of Delay - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 31, 2026
- Expiration: November 07, 2026
- Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (5)
- 1Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes After the Fed Decision - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
- 2Bitcoin week ahead: Fed 28 Oct, $10.9B options expiry 30 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
- 3Bitfinex Lists 17 Macro Catalysts That Could Move Bitcoin in Octobernews.bitcoin.com
- 4Bitcoin Price Forecast as Fed's Logan Calls For 2 More Rate Hikes - Can BTC Hold $75K?coingape.com
- 5Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Binance security breach and hawkish Fed push BTC lowerfxstreet.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26OCT3104-T86799.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3104-T86699.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3104-T86599.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3104-T86499.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26OCT3104-T86399.99: NO (Oct 31, 2026)