BTC price range on Aug 18, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for a Bitcoin price range of $64,500 to 64,599.99 at 61.0% model vs 41.0% market, driven by the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index trading at $64,576.13 on August 18, 2026.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- The $64,500-$64,599.99 range is favored, aligning with the BRTI snapshot.
- Bitcoin reports of "holding $64,600" support the $64,600-$64,699.99 range.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
Bitcoin traded within a narrow range, influenced by macro factors. On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a daily price range of $64,036.90 to $65,024.60 [^]. By the evening, Bitcoin traded near $64,000–$64,600 [^][^]. The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) registered approximately $64,576.13 [^]. External pressures included rising Treasury yields, Brent crude oil prices at $94/barrel, and geopolitical uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran relations [^][^].
Low volatility persisted amid security concerns and upcoming events. Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility stood at 42%, considered historically low [^]. Market participants awaited Federal Reserve meeting minutes and an anticipated White House crypto summit with industry executives [^]. A security crisis involving firmware vulnerabilities in Coinkite’s Coldcard hardware wallets, which began in late July 2026, continued to affect the market. Estimated losses from these vulnerabilities ranged from $111 million to $130 million [^][^].
Bitcoin developers debated core protocol changes and monetary policy. Discussions centered on the BIP-110 proposal, which considered potential Proof-of-Work changes [^]. Developer Peter Todd also reignited debate over Bitcoin's 21-million coin supply cap and future security funding, proposing tail emission [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" contract resolves true if the Bitcoin (BTC) price falls within the specified range (e.g., $64,400 to $64,499.99) at 9pm EDT today. Conversely, a "No" contract resolves true if the BTC price is outside of that specific range at the same time. The market is scheduled to resolve based on the BTC price "today at 9pm EDT," and the specific source for the BTC price is not detailed on this page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin traded within an approximate daily range of $64,036 to $65,025 [^][^] and largely consolidated between $64,000 and $64,700, with market commentary noting $64,000 as key support and $65,000 as major resistance [^][^][^]. The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) reflected a price of approximately $64,576.13 on August 18, 2026 [^], as market sentiment was characterized as neutral to cautiously bearish amidst range-bound trading [^][^].
4. Trader Dashboard
Trust profile
Event quality23
Poor
5. What key outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the White House crypto summit could drive BTC price volatility on August 18?
| Primary BTC Volatility Drivers (Aug 18, 2026) | Broader macro concerns, including rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, increased Brent crude oil prices, and pre-event positioning ahead of FOMC minutes and White House crypto meeting [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| BTC Intraday Price Range (Aug 18, 2026) | Approximately $64,005 to $64,926 [^][^] |
| Key Events Scheduled | July FOMC minutes release and White House crypto meeting on August 19, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Specific August 2026 meeting outcomes did not drive August 18 volatility. The available evidence does not include concrete extracted outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes or the White House crypto summit, precluding a direct link to Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility on August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Instead, BTC price volatility on August 18, 2026, was primarily influenced by broader macroeconomic concerns, including rising U.S. Treasury bond yields and increased Brent crude oil prices due to geopolitical tension [^][^]. This volatility was also shaped by pre-event positioning in anticipation of the FOMC minutes and a White House crypto meeting, both scheduled for the following day, August 19, 2026 [^][^]. The intraday range for BTC on August 18, 2026, was approximately $64,005 to $64,926 [^][^].
Upcoming August 19 events hinted at future regulatory shifts and market insights. The July FOMC minutes, scheduled for release on August 19, 2026, were anticipated to provide significant insights into the rationale behind the July 29, 2026, decision to hold interest rates and indications of potential divisions within the FOMC regarding a September rate hike [^][^][^]. Concurrently, a White House crypto meeting on August 19, 2026, expected to be attended by President Donald Trump and crypto executives, signaled a potential shift by the administration toward regulatory rulemaking via agencies such as the SEC and CFTC [^][^][^][^]. However, the provided materials do not contain extracted policy outcomes from the August 2026 Federal Reserve meeting minutes, such as details on rate paths, inflation outlook, financial stability, or digital asset mentions. Similarly, concrete extracted outcomes from the White House crypto summit, like specific stablecoin rulemaking or enforcement decisions, are not included in the provided evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^].
6. How does Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility in August 2026 compare to historical levels for the same period in 2024 and 2025?
| 30-day realized volatility (Mid-August 2026) | 22.0% to 27.2% annualized [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 1-month realized volatility (August 17, 2026) | 22.02% [^] |
| 7-day realized volatility (Week of August 17, 2026) | 19.5% [^] |
Bitcoin's August 2026 volatility significantly decreased compared to prior years. As of mid-August 2026, Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility showed substantial compression, with annualized figures ranging from approximately 22.0% to 27.2% [^][^][^]. Specifically, on August 17, 2026, the 1-month realized volatility was recorded at 22.02% [^]. This level represents a notable reduction when contrasted with historical August averages, which stood at roughly 41% in 2024 and 40% in 2025 [^][^][^].
Both implied and realized volatility indicated a calmer market in August. In mid-August 2026, both Bitcoin's implied and realized volatility were characterized as subdued, suggesting that the market anticipated a period of tranquility [^]. This subdued trend continued, with the 7-day realized volatility measuring 19.5% during the week of August 17, 2026 [^].
7. Which factors are exerting more influence on Bitcoin's August 2026 price: macroeconomic pressures like Treasury yields or crypto-native events like the Coldcard hack?
| Bitcoin Price (Aug 18, 2026) | Approximately $64,400 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Weekly Change (mid-Aug 2026) | Fell 2.59% week-over-week [^] |
| Coldcard Hack Value | Over $100 million or approximately 1,368 BTC [^][^][^][^] |
Bitcoin's August 2026 price saw conflicting influences from macro and crypto events. Some sources contend that macroeconomic factors, particularly US economic data, exerted greater influence on Bitcoin's price compared to crypto-native events [^][^]. On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin's price action was primarily driven by the market's reaction to weaker-than-expected July US retail sales [^][^]. This triggered speculation regarding Federal Reserve rate policy and subsequently boosted risk assets, leading Bitcoin to rise to approximately $64,400 [^][^]. Prediction markets for this specific date generally converged around the $64,000–$66,000 range, which aligned with the actual price movement following the retail sales data announcement [^][^][^][^].
Other analyses suggested crypto-native events exerted greater influence during mid-August. Conversely, other research indicates that Bitcoin's price action in mid-August 2026 was more significantly shaped by crypto-native factors [^]. This occurred despite supportive macroeconomic data, which included inline Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, cooling Producer Price Index (PPI) data, and falling 2-year Treasury yields [^]. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a 2.59% week-over-week decline, largely attributed to substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shelving a planned crypto rulemaking vote [^]. Bitcoin concluded Friday, August 14, 2026, at $62,875 and traded near $63.6k by the week ending August 17, 2026, remaining within a range-bound state [^].
The Coldcard hack, a significant crypto-native event, had negligible market impact. A notable crypto-native incident, the Coldcard hack, involved the theft of over $100 million worth of Bitcoin, approximately 1,368 BTC, yet it had a negligible impact on Bitcoin's market price [^][^][^][^]. The market largely disregarded the incident because there was no indication of forced selling or a significant liquidity drain resulting from the exploit [^][^][^]. Consequently, this particular exploit did not leave a discernible mark on the price of Bitcoin or the broader Non-Programmable asset sector [^].
8. What do high-frequency derivatives metrics, such as funding rates on Binance and Bybit, indicate about trader sentiment leading up to the evening of August 18, 2026?
| Bitcoin Funding Rates | Remained positive leading into August 18, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price Rebound | $64,000–$64,400 on August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) | Around 38–41 ('Fear' zone) on August 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
Funding rates indicated a balanced yet cautious market leading to August 18. High-frequency derivatives metrics, including funding rates on major exchanges such as Binance and Bybit, were notably low and stable leading up to August 18, 2026 [^][^][^]. This suggested that traders were not exhibiting extreme long or short positioning while awaiting confirmation of further price recovery. Despite this general caution, Bitcoin funding rates remained positive in the week preceding August 18, 2026, pointing to a persistent long-biased stance among traders [^].
Broader market sentiment reflected caution and skepticism despite Bitcoin's rebound. The derivatives market during mid-August 2026 was characterized by a cautious environment, exhibiting moderate leverage expansion alongside an increasing shift towards sell-side perpetual taker flows, which signaled aggressive distribution [^]. On August 18, 2026, Bitcoin's sentiment was cautiously optimistic as its price rebounded to the $64,000–$64,400 range, following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data [^][^][^][^]. However, the overall market remained in the 'Fear' zone, with the Fear & Greed Index positioned around 38–41, indicating traders' skepticism regarding a sustained trend change [^][^][^][^].
9. What are the potential market-moving developments related to the Coinkite Coldcard vulnerability that could occur before August 18, 2026?
| Exploited BTC Value | ~$115M–$116M (1,700–1,816 BTC) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Exploit Start Date | July 30, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| BTC Price (August 18, 2026) | $64,600–$64,641 [^][^] |
A Coldcard firmware bug led to over $100M in stolen Bitcoin. A vulnerability stemming from a March 2021 firmware bug in Coinkite Coldcard, which weakened seed entropy, resulted in the theft of approximately 1,700–1,816 BTC, valued between $115 million and $116 million [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The exploit began on July 30, 2026, with around 1,368 BTC being drained from over 4,500 addresses [^]. Despite the significant value compromised, the market impact of this vulnerability was relatively modest; Bitcoin prices remained stable, and the event was characterized by a spike in BTC inflows to exchanges as users consolidated funds for custody, rather than a large-scale sell-off or Bitcoin repricing event [^][^][^][^].
Macroeconomic factors primarily drove Bitcoin's stable price post-exploit. As of August 18, 2026, Bitcoin was trading near $64,600–$64,641, with its price movements predominantly influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as U.S.-Iran tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations, rather than any lingering effects from the Coldcard vulnerability [^][^]. The prevailing market setup on August 17, 2026, indicated a range-bound BTC with contracting spot volumes and cautious derivatives, suggesting limited conviction as the resolution window approached [^]. While implied volatility and option configurations were priced for relative calm, the overall market direction and risk premia were contingent on upcoming macroeconomic items, which could move BTC independently of the Coldcard vulnerability's direct impact [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Geopolitical uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, rising bond yields, and increasing oil prices were identified as key bearish catalysts for Bitcoin around August 18, 2026 [^] [^] . Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and a White House crypto summit scheduled for Wednesday, August 19, represented potential bullish drivers [^][^].
The market sentiment for the week of August 17, 2026, was characterized by an 'organizing tension' where risk assets were priced for a 'near-perfect landing,' while rates markets discounted only a token further hike path [^] . Implied volatility was low, pricing off calm, and the market remained contingent on macro events such as FOMC minutes and labor data [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: August 19, 2026
- Expiration: August 26, 2026
- Closes: August 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Geopolitical uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, rising bond yields, and increasing oil prices were identified as key bearish catalysts for Bitcoin around August 18, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and a White House crypto summit scheduled for Wednesday, August 19, represented potential bullish drivers [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The market sentiment for the week of August 17, 2026, was characterized by an 'organizing tension' where risk assets were priced for a 'near-perfect landing,' while rates markets discounted only a token further hike path [^] .
- Trigger: Implied volatility was low, pricing off calm, and the market remained contingent on macro events such as FOMC minutes and labor data [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-T72299.99: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-T53700: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72250: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72150: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
- KXBTC-26AUG1820-B72050: NO (Aug 19, 2026)
