Oscar nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Project Hail Mary to receive an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which speculates on a specific, unnamed film receiving a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for the 2027 Oscars, has experienced a distinct downward trend since its inception. The perceived probability opened at 34.0% on April 15, 2026, but saw a significant drop of nine percentage points to 25.0% just two days later. The price has since stabilized at this lower level. Given the lack of specific news or context provided, the direct cause for this sharp decrease in perceived probability is not apparent from the available information. The movement likely reflects an initial price correction as the first traders established a new consensus.
The trading volume provides some insight into market conviction. While a total of 300 contracts have been traded, the sample data points show zero volume during the period of the price drop. This suggests the price change may have been caused by a market maker adjustment or a small number of trades between the sampled dates rather than a broad-based reaction to a specific event. The low overall volume and limited data points indicate a nascent and thinly traded market where price levels can be moved with relatively little activity.
From a technical perspective, the market has established a potential short-term support level at the 25.0% mark, where the price has held firm since April 17. The opening price of 34.0% acts as the initial resistance level. Overall, the chart indicates a shift in market sentiment from modestly optimistic to more pessimistic regarding this film's chances for a nomination. The current price of 25.0% reflects a one-in-four perceived probability, a notable decrease from the initial one-in-three chance priced by the market.
- Drew Goddard, Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts show high nomination ratios.
- Sci-fi and animated films require high critical scores for nominations.
- Nolan's The Odyssey adaptation shows significant pre-release academic interest.
- "One Battle After Another" leads major awards contenders by early 2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | 69.0% | 64.7% | The provided research details screenwriters with high nomination-to-project ratios for Best Adapted Screenplay, but it offers no specific information about "Project Hail Mary" or its screenwriting team, providing no direct evidence to support or contradict the current market probability. |
| Dune: Part Three | 49.0% | 42.0% | The screenwriters involved in *Dune* (2021), Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts, both received two Best Adapted Screenplay nominations (WGA and Academy Award) for that single project, demonstrating a strong precedent for the *Dune* property's adapted screenplays to receive major award recognition, which supports the market's current probability. |
| The Odyssey | 60.0% | 48.8% | The background research provides historical nomination-to-project ratios for prominent screenwriters but offers no specific information about "The Odyssey" or its screenwriters, therefore providing no direct evidence to shift the debiased price. |
| Saturn Return | 18.0% | 8.8% | The provided research details historical nomination-to-project ratios for specific screenwriters and films, offering no direct evidence or information regarding the likelihood of "Saturn Return" receiving an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, thus making the debiased price fair based on the presented data. |
| The Social Reckoning | 44.0% | 31.0% | The background research discusses historical screenwriter nomination-to-project ratios for Best Adapted Screenplay but provides no information relevant to "The Social Reckoning" or its potential nomination, rendering it neutral to the market's current assessment. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 15, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 43.0%
Outcome: Dune: Part Three
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to Yes if "Dune: Part Three" is nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, with verification from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences; otherwise, it resolves to No. Nominations are expected in January 2027. The market will close the following 10 am ET after the outcome occurs, or by December 31, 2027, at 10:00 am EST if the event does not occur, with payout projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | $0.70 | $0.33 | 69% |
| The Odyssey | $0.67 | $0.40 | 60% |
| Dune: Part Three | $0.49 | $0.59 | 49% |
| The Social Reckoning | $0.44 | $0.63 | 44% |
| Wildwood | $0.27 | $0.81 | 27% |
| Clarissa | $0.26 | $0.80 | 25% |
| Saturn Return | $0.19 | $0.88 | 18% |
| Toy Story 5 | $0.12 | $0.96 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score35High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score62Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. Which Screenwriters Have Highest Adapted Screenplay Nomination-to-Project Ratio?
| Highest Ratio | Drew Goddard (2.0) [1] |
|---|---|
| Highest Ratio | Denis Villeneuve (2.0) [2] |
| Comparison Ratio | Aaron Sorkin (1.75) [3] |
Drew Goddard, Denis Villeneuve, and Jon Spaihts share the highest nomination ratio. Each individual holds a 2.0 nomination-to-project ratio for Best Adapted Screenplay at both the WGA and Academy Awards since 2010. Drew Goddard received two nominations for his work on The Martian (2015)—one from the WGA and one from the Academy Awards—for a single adapted screenplay project [1]. Similarly, Denis Villeneuve earned two nominations for his co-writing credit on Dune (2021)—one WGA and one Academy Award nomination—from one adapted screenplay project [2]. Jon Spaihts also received two nominations for his co-writing credit on Dune (2021)—one WGA and one Academy Award nomination—from a single adapted screenplay project [4].
Aaron Sorkin achieved a 1.75 nomination-to-project ratio since 2010. Sorkin accumulated seven nominations across four distinct adapted screenplay projects during this period. His WGA nominations include a win for The Social Network (2010) and nominations for Moneyball (2011) and Steve Jobs (2015) [3]. For the Academy Awards, he received a win for The Social Network (2010) and nominations for Moneyball (2011), Steve Jobs (2015), and Molly's Game (2017) [3].
7. What Metacritic Score Qualifies Sci-Fi/Animated Films for Adapted Screenplay Nominations?
| Lowest Metacritic Score for Nomination (Sci-Fi/Animated) | 77 (Logan) [1] |
|---|---|
| Shrek Metacritic Score (Nominated Animated Film) | 86 [2] |
| Toy Story 3 Metacritic Score (Nominated Animated Film) | 92 [2] |
Science fiction and animated films require high critical scores for screenplay nominations. Historically, a science fiction or animated film typically needs a Metacritic score of at least 77 to secure a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. This benchmark was established by Logan (2017) [1]. Other animated films that have received nominations, such as Shrek (2001) with a score of 86 [2] and Toy Story 3 (2010) with 92 [2], further demonstrate the necessity of robust critical reception for films in these genres to contend for this prestigious award.
Early screenings suggest strong awards potential for Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three. Initial reports indicate that upcoming films Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three are strongly positioned to meet or exceed this critical threshold. Project Hail Mary has garnered 'stunning' and 'epic' initial reactions, suggesting significant potential for awards recognition, particularly for its screenplay [3]. Similarly, Dune: Part Three has received exceptionally positive early feedback from a limited screening, with audiences reportedly 'blown away' and drawing comparisons to critically acclaimed films, which points to a high likelihood of strong critical reception for its screenplay as well [4].
Sources (4)
- 1Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplayen.wikipedia.org
- 2List of animated feature films nominated for Academy Awardsen.wikipedia.org
- 3Project Hail Mary Has Started Screening, And Everything I'm Seeing Has Me More And More Hypedyahoo.com
- 4‘Dune: Part Three’ Blows Away Audience as First Seven Minutes Screen at CinemaCon — World of Reelworldofreel.com
8. Which Film Studio Converts Campaign Spending Into Screenplay Nominations?
| Spending-to-nomination ratio data | Not publicly disclosed [1] |
|---|---|
| General Oscar campaign spending | $3 million to $30 million per film or across multiple films [2] |
| Warner Bros. 2026 campaign budget | Upwards of $30 million for two films [3] |
Calculating specific spending-to-nomination ratios proves challenging due to confidentiality. Detailed campaign expenditures for individual films or categories are not publicly disclosed by film studios [1]. Industry reports indicate that overall Oscar campaigns can range from $3 million to $30 million per film or across multiple films [2].
Warner Bros. demonstrates effective strategy through significant campaign investments. While a precise ratio is unattainable, studios with a history of substantial campaign spending and numerous nominations typically exhibit an effective strategy. For the 2026 Oscar cycle, Warner Bros. is reportedly investing over $30 million in its awards campaigns for two films, 'Sinners' and 'One Battle After Another' [3]. This considerable financial commitment aligns with their consistent top ranking among studios for overall Oscar nominations in recent cycles, including within screenplay categories [4].
Warner Bros. shows a strong track record, despite unquantifiable specific ratios. It is not possible to definitively identify a studio based on a granular spending-to-nomination ratio specifically for non-Best Picture frontrunners in screenplay categories over the last five Oscar cycles. However, Warner Bros.'s robust financial commitment to its awards campaigns and its consistent success in securing a high volume of nominations across various categories suggest a strong overall track record in converting potential contenders, including those not considered Best Picture frontrunners, into specific category nominations like screenplay [3].
Sources (4)
- 1Oscars 2026 Film & Studio Scorecardsyahoo.com
- 2CAMPAIGN FINANCE: How to Win an Oscar—or Go Broke Trying | Vanity Fair | HOLLYWOOD 2026vanityfair.azurewebsites.net
- 3Warner Bros’ $30 Million Oscars Race: How ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ Are Campaigning at the Same Studio - Yahoo News UKuk.news.yahoo.com
- 4Oscars studio scorecard: Warner Bros tops the listgoldderby.com
9. Which Upcoming Literary Adaptation Has Most Academic Interest?
| University Course Inclusion | Yale University's "HUMS 2545: Odyssean receptions" [1] |
|---|---|
| Academic Discourse | Discussions on impact on classical education and revival of ancient moral questions [2] |
| Other Adaptations Academic Interest | Not comparable to The Odyssey adaptation [3] |
Christopher Nolan's upcoming film adaptation of The Odyssey shows the most significant pre-release academic interest and inclusion in university curricula among the literary adaptations provided. This engagement signals a potential "cultural rediscovery" of the epic poem, as evidenced by specific academic initiatives. Scholarly discussions have also emerged concerning how Nolan's adaptation might "revive an ancient moral question" and significantly impact classical education in the U.S. [2].
This engagement includes new university courses and scholarly debate. For example, Yale University's Humanities Program has introduced "HUMS 2545: Odyssean receptions: A Journey Through the History of Literature and Film," a course that specifically examines the receptions of The Odyssey across various media, including film [1]. This direct academic focus underscores the anticipation surrounding the film's potential impact on the study of classical literature and its contemporary interpretations.
Other literary adaptations lack comparable pre-release academic buzz. In contrast, the provided web research does not offer similar indicators of a pre-release spike in academic citations or university curriculum inclusion for other listed adaptations such as "Clarissa (2026 film)" [3], "Wildwood (film)" [4], or Netflix's "Saturn Return" [5]. While "Saturn Return" notably filmed at the University of Chicago, this points to a production detail rather than academic curriculum integration or scholarly debate [5].
Sources (5)
- 1HUMS 2545: Odyssean receptions: A Journey Through the History of Literature and Film | The Humanities Programhumanities.yale.edu
- 2Odysseus the destroyer? Christopher Nolan’s new Odyssey adaptation revives an ancient moral questiontheconversation.edu.au
- 3Clarissa (2026 film)en.wikipedia.org
- 4Wildwood (film)en.wikipedia.org
- 5Chemistry Gets the Close-Up: Netflix Film 'Saturn Return' Takes Over UChicago's Kent Hallchemistry.uchicago.edu
10. Which Film Leads in Major Awards and Nominations Points by Early 2027?
| One Battle After Another Total Points | 10 points (Accumulated from nominations and wins, including USC Scripter, Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, LAFCA, NBR, NYFCC [1], [2], [3], [4]) |
|---|---|
| One Battle After Another USC Scripter Points | 3 points (Nomination and win for 2026 USC Scripter Award [1], [2], [4]) |
| Other Films' Top Points (USC Scripter Nomination) | 3 points (For "Death By Lightning," "The Last Goodbye," "Echoes of the Past," "The Great Divide" [1], [2], [4]) |
"One Battle After Another" led contenders with a significant 10 points. By early January 2027, the film accumulated these points across the specified major awards and nominations. It secured 3 points for its nomination and win of the 2026 USC Scripter Award [1], [2], [4]. Additionally, it earned 2 points for its Golden Globe Award for Best Screenplay (Motion Picture) nomination and another 2 points for its Critics' Choice Movie Award for Best Adapted Screenplay nomination [3]. The film also garnered 1 point each for winning Best Screenplay at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Best Adapted Screenplay from the National Board of Review, and Best Screenplay from the New York Film Critics Circle [3].
"One Battle After Another" significantly outranked other potential nominees based on the index. Other films, including "Death By Lightning," "The Last Goodbye," "Echoes of the Past," and "The Great Divide," each received 3 points for their nominations for the 2026 USC Scripter Award [1], [2], [4]. Meanwhile, "Sinners" and "Marty Supreme" were nominated for the 2026 Writers Guild Awards but did not accrue any points from the specified criteria in the available sources [5].
Sources (5)
- 1USC Scripter Awards 2026 Winners: 'One Battle', 'Death By Lightning'deadline.com
- 22026 USC Scripter Awards Winners Listvariety.com
- 3List of accolades received by One Battle After Anotheren.wikipedia.org
- 4Finalists Named for 38th annual USC Libraries Scripter Awards | USC Librarieslibraries.usc.edu
- 5Writers Guild Awards Nominations: ‘Sinners,’ ‘Marty Supreme’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ Among the Nomineesvariety.com
