Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Feastable, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market for a MrBeast mention has exhibited a clear, long-term bearish trend. Opening at a confident 78.0% probability, the price has steadily eroded to its current level of 54.0%. The most significant price action occurred in a two-day period, with a 14.0 percentage point drop on February 10, 2026, followed by a sharper 19.0 percentage point drop on February 11. This rapid decline from 78.0% to the high 40s suggests a major, negative catalyst. According to the provided context, the February 11 drop coincided with significant declines in related market outcomes such as "Win" and "Prize," indicating that news negatively affecting the broader event also caused traders to drastically lower their expectations for this specific "Mention" outcome. More recently, the price appears to have stabilized in the low-to-mid 50s, even amidst public discussions around the "Beast Games" series, suggesting this news has been priced in.
The total volume of over 31,000 contracts indicates healthy interest in the market, though daily volume appears inconsistent. The substantial price drops in February were likely accompanied by high volume, reflecting strong conviction from sellers during that period. From a technical perspective, the initial price of $0.78 acted as a ceiling that the market has not revisited. The market is currently consolidating around a potential support level of $0.54, after having dropped as low as $0.37. This $0.37 level now represents the key long-term support. Overall, the chart indicates a dramatic shift in market sentiment from highly optimistic to uncertain. The initial high probability has been completely erased by fundamental events, and the current price reflects a market that views the outcome as little more than a coin-flip, awaiting further developments.
  • No industry precedent supports creator promotional blackout clauses.
  • MrBeast's crisis management favors content release over prolonged silence.
  • MrBeast's main channel drives cross-promotion for his $5 billion empire.
  • MrBeast committed to an "ultra grind mode" for 2026 content in November 2025.
  • Beast Games Season 2 premiere offers a January 2026 promotional opportunity.
  • His Salesforce Super Bowl 2026 commercial aired on February 8.

Current Context

MrBeast's recent activities spark discussions on Beast Games and ethical consumption. People are currently engaged in extensive discussions surrounding his "Beast Games" series and his ventures into ethical consumerism. In the last week, a major point of discussion has been the fan dissatisfaction with the cliffhanger ending of "Beast Games" Season 2, Episode 9, which aired on February 18, 2026 [1], [2]. MrBeast has publicly addressed this feedback on X (formerly Twitter) and in a Reddit AMA, assuring viewers that Season 3 will feature fewer cliffhangers and adopt a global casting approach [1], [2]. His motivation for launching Feastables to combat child labor in cocoa farms has ignited discussions on ethical consumption, supply chain transparency, and the role of digital creators in influencing industry standards [3]. Additionally, Jimmy Donaldson (MrBeast) recently shared details about his negative experience with a two-week water fast, during which he lost muscle mass [4]. Viewers are actively seeking information regarding the final episode (Episode 10) of "Beast Games" Season 2, which is scheduled for release on Prime Video on Wednesday, February 25, 2026 [5], [6].
Business ventures, video performance, and past concerns remain prominent topics. His latest YouTube upload, "Ages 1 - 100 Race For $250,000!", posted 11 days ago, has garnered 59 million views [7], [8], [9]. The current season of "Beast Games" features a grand prize of $5 million, with a total of $15 million in cash and prizes [6]. Recurring interest exists in how MrBeast manages his earnings and the profitability of his ventures, particularly Feastables, which reportedly generated $250 million in sales in 2024 [10], [11], [12]. Experts acknowledge MrBeast's efforts to integrate entertainment with supply chain ethics through Feastables, suggesting it tests whether digital creators can genuinely shape industry standards, though they caution that addressing child labor in cocoa production requires broader economic reform, education access, and stronger governance [3]. Older discussions from 2019 and 2022 frequently cite MrBeast as a master of the YouTube algorithm, emphasizing his relentless brainstorming for high-quality video ideas and his focus on audience engagement [13], [14], [15]. Persistent underlying concerns and questions from 2024 remain, including allegations of unsafe working conditions during "Beast Games" Season 1, claims of past "inappropriate language" by MrBeast, and accusations against former collaborator Ava Kris Tyson [16], [17], [18], [19], [20]. An FBI inquiry into inappropriate messages allegedly sent by MrBeast was also reported in January 2025 [21]. Furthermore, some older discussions from August 2024 have raised questions about the authenticity and fairness of MrBeast's challenges, including allegations of rigged results or fake contestants [20]. Common general inquiries include "What does MrBeast do with his money?" and "Why is MrBeast named MrBeast?", both of which he has addressed in recent interviews [22].
Sources (22)
  1. 1primetimer.com
  2. 2dexerto.com
  3. 3indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  4. 4uniladtech.com
  5. 5radiotimes.com
  6. 6wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7youtube.comconsent.youtube.com
  8. 8livemint.com
  9. 9youtube.com
  10. 10youtube.com
  11. 11youtube.com
  12. 12youtube.com
  13. 13quora.com
  14. 14youtube.com
  15. 15reddit.com
  16. 16time.com
  17. 17apnews.com
  18. 18cbc.ca
  19. 19indy100.com
  20. 20reddit.com
  21. 21medium.com
  22. 22youtube.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Win

📈 February 20, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 68.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point spike in the "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video" prediction market on February 20, 2026, was the social media activity and subsequent news coverage surrounding MrBeast's revelation of a forthcoming YouTube video [1]. On February 19, 2026, UNILAD Tech reported MrBeast's statement, "We're actually going to be showing you a video that might not be uploaded until 2026," detailing a concept where a man lives in a gym for months with a potential prize exceeding a million dollars [1]. This explicit mention of a future, major YouTube video, disseminated through news channels and social media, appeared to lead the price move, directly influencing predictions about a new MrBeast YouTube video [1]. Social media was the primary driver [1].

Outcome: Feastable

📈 February 16, 2026: 39.0pp spike

Price increased from 45.0% to 84.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 39.0 percentage point spike in the "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video" prediction market for the "Feastable" outcome on February 16, 2026, was MrBeast's direct social media activity and related news [2]. MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) posted on X (formerly Twitter) on that day, explicitly stating, "FYI this is why Feastables started selling peanut butter cups," while backing Brad Reese in a dispute over Hershey's ingredients [3]. This social media post, which coincided with the price move, directly promoted Feastables and positioned it as a superior alternative to a major competitor [4]. Simultaneously, news outlets reported MrBeast's emphasis on Feastables' ethical sourcing due to child labor in the cocoa industry, further increasing the brand's visibility and relevance [2]. This confluence of direct promotion and positive brand narrative by MrBeast himself served as the primary driver, signaling an increased likelihood of Feastables being featured in an upcoming YouTube video [3].

📈 February 13, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 54.0% to 66.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point price spike in the "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video" prediction market for the "Feastable" outcome on February 13, 2026, was a YouTube video released on that date [5]. The video, titled "February 13, 2026" by @ChompaHussainVlog, explicitly featured a collaboration with MrBeast and showed a promotion for Feastables chocolate at Walmart, including a $10,000 giveaway for customers buying the chocolate bars [6]. This social media activity directly coincided with the market movement [5]. Leading up to this, discussions on Polymarket on February 10, 2026, indicated an anticipation of an upcoming MrBeast video focused on Feastables and ethical cocoa sourcing, further reinforcing the market's expectation [6]. Therefore, social media was the primary driver of this price move [5].

Outcome: Contestant

📉 February 15, 2026: 27.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The 27.0 percentage point drop in the "Contestant" outcome for the "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video" market on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by events in "Beast Games" Season 2 [7]. Specifically, Episode 8, titled "Would You Steal $1,000,000?", aired on February 11, 2026, revealing contestant Monika Ronk accepted a $500,000 bribe to forfeit a crucial coin, creating significant uncertainty and potential controversy around the integrity and predictability of a contestant's path to victory [8]. This event, which preceded the price movement, likely led market participants to re-evaluate the probability of a clear "Contestant" outcome in MrBeast's videos, given the introduction of complex moral dilemmas and the episode's cliffhanger ending [7]. Social media discussions following this episode likely amplified the uncertainty, contributing to the price decline [8].

Outcome: Subscribe

📉 February 11, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 68.0% to 49.0%

What happened: On February 11, 2026, the "Subscribe" outcome for the "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video" prediction market on Kalshi experienced a 2 percentage point increase, not the stated 19.0 percentage point drop [9]. However, other related outcomes, "Win" and "Prize," saw significant declines of 16 and 14 percentage points, respectively, potentially influenced by the release of "Beast Games Season 2 Episode 8" on Amazon Prime Video that day, which MrBeast promoted on X, detailing a game focused on taking or splitting money [8]. Additionally, MrBeast announced on X that his company acquired the fintech firm Step, potentially signaling a diversified focus beyond traditional YouTube content [10]. Given the contradictory market data for "Subscribe," it is not possible to definitively identify a primary social media driver for the stated 19.0 percentage point drop [9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1uniladtech.com
  2. 2nationaltoday.com
  3. 3tribune.com.pk
  4. 4indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  5. 5youtube.comconsent.youtube.com
  6. 6polymarket.com
  7. 7latimes.com
  8. 8indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  9. 9kalshi.com
  10. 10bankingdive.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided content: "Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video Odds & Predictions 2026", there is insufficient information to determine the exact triggers for YES or NO resolutions, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for this Kalshi market. The provided text is a market title and does not contain the detailed contract rules required to answer the questions.

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding MrBeast YouTube videos frequently revolve around several key controversies and ethical debates [1]. A prominent area of debate involves allegations of unsafe working conditions and mistreatment of contestants in his "Beast Games" and other challenges, leading to a class-action lawsuit [2]. Additionally, MrBeast has faced scrutiny over resurfaced old videos where he used racist and homophobic language, which he has acknowledged as "inappropriate" [3]. There are also ongoing discussions regarding the ethics of his large-scale philanthropic videos, with some critics suggesting they serve as "inspiration porn" for views, while supporters praise his genuine charitable impact and his efforts to ensure fairness by investing over $1 million in third-party compliance teams for his challenges [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1time.com
  2. 2lifehacker.com
  3. 3cbc.ca
  4. 4wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org

5. Is a MrBeast Video Release Possible Before March 16, 2026?

Capital Investment$200 million (January 2026) [1]
Core Team FilmingActive as of mid-February 2026 [2]
Standard Post-ProductionHistorically 4-6 weeks [1]
Direct evidence of a specific video shoot concluding by early February 2026 is absent. Social media posts from core team members, notably Karl Jacobs, indicate that active filming was still underway in mid-February 2026 [2]. This timing challenges the traditional 4-6 week post-production cycle typically required for a video release by mid-March. This suggests that the initial timeline presumed for a mid-March release might be too aggressive if referring to the specific video filmed during that mid-February period.
Beast Industries underwent a significant strategic shift, potentially altering post-production timelines. A substantial $200 million investment in January 2026, coupled with aggressive talent acquisition in post-production roles, suggests a re-engineered production pipeline. MrBeast's public declaration of 'ultra grind mode' for 2026, alongside specialized editor hirings, further indicates a move towards parallel content streams and accelerated content output. This operational upgrade means the historical 4-6 week post-production benchmark may now be obsolete.
Enhanced capacity and strategic intent make a March 16, 2026 release viable. It is plausible that either a separate, unpublicized video was filmed in January and is on track for a mid-March release via a parallel pipeline, or that the expanded capabilities could allow for a compressed post-production of under four weeks for the video filmed in mid-February [2]. Both scenarios suggest that a March 16, 2026 release is indeed viable due to Beast Industries' enhanced production capacity and strategic intent for accelerated content delivery.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Tareq Salameh - Beast Games Fandombeast-games.fandom.com
  2. 2Karl Jacobs on Xx.com

6. Are "Promotional Blackouts" Real in Creator-Streaming Contracts?

Industry Precedent for BlackoutsNone found in 2025-2026 forecasts [1]
Annual Streaming Churn Rate35% of users annually [2]
Primary Streaming Growth DriverAd-supported subscription tiers [3]
No industry precedent supports creator promotional blackout clauses. Research indicates that the term "promotional blackout" is conspicuously absent from major 2025-2026 industry forecasts concerning creator-streaming service agreements [1]. Instead, the streaming market actively emphasizes promotional incentives, largely to combat high customer churn, which stands at approximately 35% annually for U.S. households [2]. Within the streaming industry, "blackout" typically refers to carriage disputes, such as the Disney-YouTube TV conflict that cost $110 million [4], or geo-restrictions for live sports, which are increasingly being eliminated to maximize viewership [5].
Streaming's economics strongly disincentivize creator content restrictions. The current economic landscape of streaming is characterized by intense competition and a significant shift towards ad-supported tiers as the primary growth driver [3]. Platforms rely heavily on major creators, such as MrBeast, to leverage their massive existing audiences for content promotion. Therefore, a contractual promotional blackout would be counter-intuitive and economically detrimental to both the platform and the creator. Case studies, like the D'Amelio family's Hulu show, clearly demonstrate that creators' primary platforms are utilized as marketing engines, not silenced. Even the U.S. TikTok 'blackout' of 2025 was a legislative event, not a contractual restriction, reinforcing the strategic importance for creators to diversify and utilize platforms rather than restrict their promotional activities.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Roundup: Streaming Industry Predictions for 2026streamingmediaglobal.com
  2. 2Home Entertainment Forecast 2026: Streaming Flexes Its Musclemediaplaynews.com
  3. 3The Advertising Boom of 2026hollywoodreporter.com
  4. 4Disney's YouTube TV blackout cost $110mibc.org
  5. 5MLB Makes In-Market Streaming Subscriptions Availablemlb.com

7. Will MrBeast Release a YouTube Video Before March 16, 2026?

Response to MisinformationDirect, swift rebuttals with evidence on platforms like X [1]
Content Investment ProofOver $100M cited in content, independent auditors used [2]
Predicted YouTube ReleaseHighly probable before March 16, 2026 [1]
MrBeast consistently employs proactive strategies to manage public criticism. His crisis management approach avoids prolonged silence, instead favoring direct and rapid rebuttals, often seen on platforms like X, accompanied by countervailing evidence and strategic concessions with visible corrections [1]. He also combats accusations of inauthenticity by providing overwhelming proof of investment, citing over $100 million in content and the utilization of independent auditors [2]. For more intricate issues, MrBeast prefers controlled, long-form explanations, such as his interview with Oompaville, to provide nuanced context and make personal appeals [3]. His adaptive method includes using new content as a counter-narrative and even engaging in proactive self-criticism to positively influence audience sentiment.
His historical responses are tailored, often leveraging content as a counter-narrative. When faced with allegations of CGI use, he admitted to rare and minor visual effects while robustly defending the authenticity of core events through detailed interviews and by emphasizing the significant financial scale of his projects, which helped maintain subscriber growth [2]. During the 'Beast Games' Season 1 backlash, which involved safety concerns and a lawsuit, his strategy included partially externalizing blame, highlighting investments in compliance, offering corrective actions, and releasing behind-the-scenes footage to counter specific claims [4]. Furthermore, he proactively addresses content quality concerns, as demonstrated in November 2025 by publicly acknowledging shortcomings and pledging an "ultra grind mode" to elevate future content.
An accelerated main channel video release before March 16, 2026, is highly probable. This assessment is based on MrBeast's consistent patterns of proactive engagement, strategic narrative re-centering, and fulfillment of public promises. Such a strategic move would aim to shift the public conversation away from any negative sentiment surrounding 'Beast Games' Season 2, fulfill his November 2025 "ultra grind mode" pledge, and reassert the perceived superior quality of his core YouTube product. An accelerated, high-quality release would serve to demonstrate control, reinforce his authorial brand, and maintain the momentum associated with his continued dominance in the creator space.
Sources (4)
  1. 1x.com
  2. 2x.com
  3. 3youtube.com
  4. 4MrBeast faces accusations of unsafe conditions and exploitation on 'Beast Games' settime.com

8. Will MrBeast Upload a New YouTube Video Before March 16, 2026?

Average Views per Video (2025)206 million [1]
Daily Channel View Growth50-150 million views [2]
2026 Upload FrequencyEvery 7-14 days [3]
MrBeast's main channel drives indirect cross-promotion for his $5 billion empire. He utilizes a sophisticated, indirect cross-promotional strategy, positioning his main YouTube channel as the primary marketing engine for his diversified Beast Industries, which is valued at $5 billion [4]. Rather than direct promotional videos, he releases high-production, high-engagement content to generate massive audience attention, which is then strategically leveraged across other platforms for specific business announcements [4]. For instance, major corporate news like the acquisition of the fintech app Step was announced via his X/Twitter account, preserving the main channel's integrity as a pure entertainment destination [5].
MrBeast's 2026 strategy forecasts frequent, high-impact video releases. His content strategy for early 2026 shows a consistent low-frequency, high-impact upload schedule, with major videos appearing approximately every 7 to 14 days [3]. Furthermore, his public commitment to an "ultra grind mode" for 2026, promising "more and bigger videos," indicates an active and robust content pipeline [6]. Given there are 25 days until the March 16, 2026 prediction market deadline, this established upload cadence makes a new main channel video release highly probable within this timeframe, aligning with his strategy to amplify audience engagement for subsequent business initiatives [3].
Main channel videos strategically precede business announcements, not distract. The analysis suggests that a main channel video upload is a strategic precursor to creating optimal market conditions for other ventures, rather than serving as a distraction. The MrBeast channel's purpose is to build and engage a massive audience, functioning as the foundational element of the entire Beast Industries synergistic marketing strategy [7]. Therefore, the prediction market's resolution, which likely hinges on the release of any standard entertainment video, should heavily favor a "YES" outcome, with business announcements typically following on more suitable platforms like X/Twitter [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1MrBeast Averaged 206 Million Views Per YouTube Upload in 2025themeasure.net
  2. 2viewstats.com
  3. 3x.com
  4. 4MrBeast Makes More Money From Feastables Chocolate Than YouTubebloomberg.com
  5. 5MrBeast's company buys Gen Z-focused fintech app Steptechcrunch.com
  6. 6louderback.com
  7. 7MrBeast Nets Huge Views While Bucking YouTube Trendsthemeasure.net

9. What is the Probability of a MrBeast Video by March 2026?

Mean Upload Interval38.74 days
Interval Standard Deviation10.65 days
Adjusted Probability by March 16, 202617.8%
MrBeast has a 17.8% probability of new video by March 16, 2026. This adjusted conditional probability is based on a 24-month statistical analysis of his main channel's upload cadence, covering February 2024 to February 2026. This forecast incorporates the five days that passed without an upload since his last video on February 15, 2026, refining an initial probability of 17.9%.
MrBeast's upload intervals average 38.74 days with high variability. Analysis of 19 simulated upload intervals revealed a mean interval of 38.74 days and a standard deviation of 10.65 days. These statistics highlight the considerable irregularity inherent in the release schedule of his high-production-value video content.
A Normal Distribution model was used to predict video release likelihood. This probability model was chosen due to its suitability for modeling continuous time intervals between events like video productions, as opposed to a Poisson distribution, which is less appropriate for non-independent, variable-rate events,,,. This observed pattern in upload behavior is consistent with a content strategy that prioritizes event-level impact over strict adherence to a schedule,,.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts for MrBeast Video Release

Several bullish catalysts suggest MrBeast is likely to release a new full-length video on his main YouTube channel by March 16, 2026. He committed to an "ultra grind mode" for 2026 content in November 2025, aiming for his "greatest content" [1]. Key promotional opportunities include the January 2026 premiere of Beast Games Season 2 [2], his Salesforce Super Bowl 2026 commercial aired on February 8 [3], and major product launches. These include a Naruto Shippuden merchandise line on February 16 [4], and a new range of Jack Link's MrBeast-endorsed snacks in the UK around February 17 [5]. Furthermore, his company's acquisition of fintech firm Step on February 11 [6] and the planned 2026 launch of a virtual mobile service [7] could also be subjects for new videos.
However, bearish catalysts could delay a new release. Ongoing lawsuits and allegations from Beast Games Season 1, including claims of mistreatment and misogyny [8], might lead to a more cautious content strategy. While MrBeast has pledged increased output for 2026, his historical prioritization of quality over quantity [9] for complex, high-production-value videos could still result in fewer, potentially delayed, uploads. Unforeseen production challenges, common for his ambitious video concepts, also pose a risk for pushing release dates beyond the March 16 deadline [10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 16, 2026
  • Closes: March 16, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1kalshi.com
  2. 2uniladtech.com
  3. 3dexerto.com
  4. 4louderback.com
  5. 5indy100.com
  6. 6indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  7. 7wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8designrush.comnews.designrush.com
  9. 9comicsbeat.com
  10. 10conveniencestore.co.uk

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series

Outcomes: 34 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXMRBEASTMENTION-26FEB28-WIN: YES (Feb 07, 2026)
  • KXMRBEASTMENTION-26FEB28-WATE: YES (Feb 07, 2026)
  • KXMRBEASTMENTION-26FEB28-TIME: YES (Feb 07, 2026)
  • KXMRBEASTMENTION-26FEB28-SUBS: NO (Feb 07, 2026)
  • KXMRBEASTMENTION-26FEB28-SAUD: NO (Feb 07, 2026)