What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa?
Short Answer
The market expects Donald Trump's midterm rally in Dubuque, Iowa, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026, to not qualify under the market's conditions, priced at 78.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The primary driver of this market's re-pricing was the reported cancellation of Donald Trump's in-person rally in Dubuque, Iowa. News on October 29, 2026, that the November 1 event was being replaced by a tele-rally caused an immediate 88.0 percentage point spike in the probability that the event would not qualify, moving the price from 3.0% to 91.0%. This single development effectively resolved the market's core question.
Prior to the announcement, the market had assigned a very low probability to the event not occurring as specified. The sharp repricing reflects the market's swift conclusion that the cancellation rendered the original terms of the market moot. The price has since settled at 84.0%, indicating sustained conviction that the in-person Dubuque rally will not happen.
- Event does not qualify is favored; Trump's in-person Dubuque rally was canceled.
- The tele-rally format differs; no reliable transcripts are publicly available.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 78.0% | 86.8% | Specific mentions might not meet the defined criteria for qualification. |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1.0% | 0.0% | Trump has previously expressed views on cryptocurrency and financial regulations. |
| Fraud (3+ times) | 8.0% | 0.0% | Trump frequently raises concerns about election integrity. |
| Save America Act | 13.0% | 0.0% | Trump often references specific legislative efforts or patriotic themes. |
| Tariff (3+ times) | 1.0% | 0.0% | Tariffs were a key economic policy during his presidency and are often mentioned. |
Current Context
Trump's Dubuque in-person rally for November 1 was canceled. The planned event in Dubuque, Iowa, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 1, was replaced by an Iowa tele-rally on October 29–30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The Republican National Committee attributed the change to candidate demand, a busy campaign schedule, and an effort to maximize voter contacts [1]. Trump's campaign had conducted approximately 25 rallies in the preceding month, and NBC reported his aim for over 20 tele-rallies by Election Day, noting his busy schedule and a hoarse voice as relevant factors [3]. Trump was expected to support Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn, and other Iowa Republicans [1][6]. The initial schedule for the Dubuque event at the Five Flags Event Center (405 Main Street) listed doors opening at 11:30 a.m., the program at 1:30 p.m., and Trump's remarks at 3 p.m. Central on November 1 [5][7][8][9][10]. Iowa's November 3 election follows two days later, with multiple competitive House races in eastern Iowa, making turnout and candidate endorsements key themes [1][8]. These original venue timings no longer apply to an in-person rally [5][7][8][9][10].
Prediction markets heavily favored the original event not qualifying. As of October 30, approximately 83–84% of market indicators pointed to an "event not qualifying" outcome due to the in-person rally's cancellation [11][12][13]. This reflected market resolution rules regarding event changes rather than a forecast of speech content [11][12][13]. If Trump's Iowa tele-rally were treated as a qualifying event under market rules, potential themes or keywords included Iran, America First, nuclear, tariffs, Made in America, China, ICE, and small business [11][12][13]. The displayed odds for these specific terms varied across markets and sources, indicating their speculative nature rather than reliable predictions [11][12][13].
Expected themes would target Iowa Republicans and national issues. A qualifying tele-rally would likely feature Trump emphasizing support for Iowa Republican candidates, specifically Ashley Hinson and Zach Nunn [1][6]. His remarks would also likely include his America First branding and standard midterm themes such as economic nationalism, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and criticism of Democrats [3][11][12]. However, no actual Dubuque speech can be predicted with confidence, given the cancellation of the physical event and the absence of a transcript [11][12].
Sources (13)
- 1Trump’s Dubuque rally canceled, to be replaced with tele-rallycbs2iowa.com
- 2Donald Trump cancels rally in Dubuque, will hold virtual event insteaddesmoinesregister.com
- 3Trump cancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas in favor of holding numerous teleralliesnbcnews.com
- 4President Trump cancels Dubuque rallykcrg.com
- 5Reports: Trump rally in Dubuque has been cancelled | News | kwwl.comkwwl.com
- 6Trump’s Dubuque rally cancelled, moved to tele-rallykwqc.com
- 7Midterm Rally in Dubuque, Iowa featuring President Donald J. Trumpevents.gop.com
- 8New schedule announced for President Trump's GOP rally in Dubuque ahead of midtermscbs2iowa.com
- 9UPDATE: Location For President Trump Visit Announced | Radio Dubuqueradiodubuque.com
- 10Location announced for Trump’s Dubuque rallykwqc.com
- 11What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 12Donald Trump: Rally in Dubuque, Iowa, Nov 1, 2026parrot.markets
- 13What will Trump say during his… on Nov 1, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Tariff (3+ times)
📉 October 30, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 17.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 16.0 percentage point drop was the reported cancellation of Donald Trump's in-person rally in Dubuque on October 30, 2026, replaced by a tele-rally [1][2][3][4]. This change, widely reported by traditional news outlets, fundamentally altered the nature of the event, making it less likely for Trump to deliver an extensive speech repeating "tariff" three or more times compared to a tele-rally focused on specific endorsements for Iowa Republicans [1][5][3][6]. This news appeared to LEAD the price move by significantly reducing the probability of the predicted outcome. Consequently, social media's role was likely a contributing accelerant, disseminating information that originated from traditional news reports.
Outcome: Event does not qualify
📈 October 29, 2026: 88.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 91.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 88.0 percentage point spike in the "Event does not qualify" outcome was the breaking news that Donald Trump's planned in-person rally in Dubuque, Iowa, for November 1, 2026, was canceled and replaced by a tele-rally [1][3][7][8]. This news was reported by several outlets on October 29, 2026, directly coinciding with the market movement [1][3][7][8]. Since the market focused on an in-person event, its cancellation rendered the original premise non-qualifying. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was not a primary driver of this price movement.
Outcome: Veteran
📈 October 28, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 33.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point spike in the 'Veteran' outcome on October 28, 2026. There are no mentions of social media posts from key figures, viral narratives, or traditional news reports on that date directly referencing Trump discussing "veterans" or related topics [1-7]. The only significant event affecting the market, the cancellation of the Dubuque in-person rally for November 1, was announced on October 29, after the price movement [1]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in driving this specific price movement based on the available information.
Outcome: Save America Act
📈 October 27, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 94.0%
What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no identifiable primary driver for the 90.0 percentage point price spike on October 27, 2026, related to Trump mentioning the "Save America Act" at a Dubuque rally. The research indicates that the reported catalyst for the rally's eventual schedule change (on October 29, 2026) was not a confirmed social media spike on October 27 [1][3][2]. There are no specific social media posts, traditional news, or market structure factors identified in the research that would have driven this movement on that date. Therefore, social media activity appears to be irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement, based on the available information.
Sources (8)
- 1Trump's Sunday in-person rally in Dubuque cancelled, 'tele-rally' planned - Radio Iowaradioiowa.com
- 2Trump cancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas in favor of holding numerous teleralliesnbcnews.com
- 3Trump’s Dubuque rally canceled, to be replaced with tele-rallycbs2iowa.com
- 4Trump’s Dubuque rally cancelled, moved to tele-rallykwqc.com
- 5Donald Trump's Nov. 1 Iowa rally is scheduled for Dubuquedesmoinesregister.com
- 6Trump rallies in Iowa where farmers have been hit hard by tariffs and rising fuel pricesms.now
- 7Trump cancels Sunday rally in Iowa ahead of election | Iowa State Legislative News | thegazette.comthegazette.com
- 8President Trump cancels Dubuque visit, replaces event with 'tele-rally' - KCCIkcci.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided content does not detail the specific criteria that would trigger a YES or NO resolution for the 'Event does not qualify' market. However, the rally that forms the basis of this market begins on Sunday, November 1, at 4:00 PM EST. The maximum payout for this market is set for November 15, 2026, with no other special settlement conditions explicitly stated.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | $0.82 | $0.20 | 78% |
| ICE | $0.13 | $0.91 | 15% |
| Small Business | $0.17 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Veteran | $0.11 | $0.92 | 14% |
| Russia / Ukraine | $0.11 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Save America Act | $0.12 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Steel | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Canada / Canadian | $0.11 | $0.92 | 11% |
| China / Chinese | $0.09 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Fraud (3+ times) | $0.12 | $0.91 | 8% |
| Supreme Court | $0.07 | $0.95 | 8% |
| America First | $0.11 | $0.92 | 7% |
| Ceasefire | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Blockade | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Corn | $0.09 | $0.94 | 4% |
| Israel / Israeli | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Made in America / American Made | $0.15 | $0.92 | 4% |
| Windmill | $0.03 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Data Center | $0.06 | $0.96 | 3% |
| Electricity | $0.06 | $0.96 | 3% |
| Ethanol | $0.07 | $0.95 | 3% |
| Gulf of America | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Hormuz | $0.02 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Cattle | $0.04 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Elon / Musk | $0.03 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Fentanyl | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Iran (5+ times) | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Nuclear (3+ times) | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Palestine / Palestinian | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Trump Account | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | $0.06 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Greenland | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kamala | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Peace in the Middle East | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Social Security (5+ times) | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Space Force | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Tariff (3+ times) | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion for Trump's rally in Dubuque, Iowa, is heavily skewed towards the "Event does not qualify" outcome, currently at 78% probability, indicating a strong belief that the specific conditions for qualification will not be met. Conversely, traders view mentions of "Small Business" (15%) and "Steel" (13%) as highly improbable, with both options experiencing significant drops in their "Yes" probabilities. This suggests a strong consensus that these particular topics will not be a focus of Trump's speech.
5. Trust Index
The market subject can determine its own outcome.
Integrity risk· Outcome control
Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score46High Risk
Trade quality20% of score50Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend46overridden
Safety capMarket integrity40High Risk
Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What were the stated reasons behind the RNC's decision to cancel Trump's in-person Dubuque rally on November 1, 2026, in favor of a tele-rally?
| Original Dubuque Rally Date | November 1, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Dubuque Event Outcome | Canceled and replaced with tele-rallies [1] |
| Tele-rallies Strategic Focus | Helping Republicans in about 35 key races [2][3] |
Donald Trump's in-person rally in Dubuque, Iowa, originally set for November 1, 2026, was canceled and replaced with tele-rallies [1]. Despite this change, available reporting does not state a specific operational reason for canceling the Dubuque event, nor does the research identify any particular cause such as weather, security, health, scheduling, venue, or logistics for its cancellation [1][4][5].
Tele-rallies were a strategic part of Trump's midterm plan unveiled in September 2026. These virtual events were a key component of Trump's final-30-day midterm strategy, specifically designed to assist Republican candidates in approximately 35 key races [2][3]. Trump emphasized the efficiency and broad coverage of this format, suggesting that tele-town halls could reach up to 10 per night [2][3].
The Dubuque cancellation's specific reason remains officially unverified in the supplied results. While the rationale for pivoting to tele-rallies was presented within the context of broader midterm-event adjustments, an exact statement from the RNC or campaign explaining the Dubuque event's specific cancellation reason is not identified in the provided sources [1][4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Prediction market news | PredictionsMarket.compredictionsmarket.com
- 2Trump Unveils Final 30-Day Plan to Rally Republicans for Midtermsinternewscast.com
- 3Trump details his ‘final 30 days’ strategy to get Republicans elected in the midtermsnypost.com
- 4What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
7. What precedent exists for how prediction markets like Kalshi resolve 'mention' markets when the specified event is canceled or fundamentally altered in format?
| Cancellation Resolution | Event does not qualify resolves Yes, phrase contracts resolve No [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Postponement Condition | Rescheduled within 14 calendar days and announced by end of next calendar day for market to stay open [1][2] |
| Dubuque Market Price (Oct 2026) | "Event does not qualify" priced around 82–84% [3][4][5] |
Prediction markets resolve mention markets based on specific contract provisions. If an event is definitively cancelled, the "Event does not qualify" contract resolves as Yes, with all specific phrase contracts resolving as No, establishing the clearest precedent for outright cancellations [1][2][3]. For postponements, markets remain open only if the delay is announced by the end of the following calendar day and the event is rescheduled within 14 calendar days; otherwise, the event falls into the non-qualifying category [1][2][3][5]. As an illustration, the Dubuque market, as of October 30, 2026, showed "Event does not qualify" actively pricing around 82–84%, reflecting current market expectations for non-qualification, though these are trading prices and not definitive resolutions [3][4][5].
Altered event formats trigger specific rules for qualifying evidence. Contract rules dictate that qualifying evidence must originate from the specifically identified rally, primarily through the first live video/stream or official transcripts if video consensus is unavailable [1][2]. Explicitly excluded from qualifying evidence are inaudible private conversations, unofficial hot-mic remarks, previously aired or archival material, and recordings from entirely separate times, places, or events [1][2]. While a change in venue or production might still qualify if the event remains the same official rally and the speech is identifiable, a conversion into a different format—such as a separate interview, prerecorded segment, or private appearance—is more likely to trigger non-qualification, as the rules require the speech to be part of the named rally [1][6][2]. This approach is underscored by past controversies, such as the February 12, 2026 Bernie Sanders Greensboro rally, where the resolution hinged on written sources and event-scope rules rather than informal evidence, emphasizing the controlling nature of the exact contract wording [6].
Sources (6)
- 1What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 2What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Event does not qualify: What will Donald Trump say duri… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6Mention Markets: Odds, Sites and How They Resolvedefirate.com
8. How does the format of a tele-rally compare to an in-person Trump rally regarding typical speech length, topics, and focus on specific candidate endorsements like Hinson and Nunn?
| Tele-rally format | Likely shorter, more tightly scripted, emphasizing a few talking points or endorsements [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Expected endorsements | No source-backed evidence for specific endorsements of Ashley Hinson or Zach Nunn in Dubuque [1][2][3] |
| Speech length estimates | Not provided in available market materials, exact minute estimates cannot be asserted [1][2][3] |
Tele-rallies differ from in-person rallies in length and content focus. A tele-rally is qualitatively distinct from a conventional in-person Trump rally, typically being shorter and more tightly scripted, focusing on a limited number of talking points or endorsements [1][2][3]. In contrast, an in-person rally generally features a longer, wide-ranging campaign speech [1][2][3]. However, the available market materials do not provide specific speech length estimates for either format, making it impossible to assert exact minute durations [1][2][3].
Dubuque event topics focused on broad policy and Iowa economic themes. For the Dubuque rally, anticipated topics primarily emphasized broad policy and economic themes relevant to Iowa, including manufacturing, small business, corn, and immigration [1][3][4][5]. The retrieved materials do not provide source-backed evidence suggesting an expectation that Trump would specifically endorse Iowa candidates Ashley Hinson or Zach Nunn; neither name appeared among the market's displayed outcomes or highlighted themes [1][2][3]. For prediction-market purposes, an endorsement is only considered valid if Trump explicitly states the candidate's qualifying name or phrase during the official event [1][3][6][5].
Sources (6)
- 1What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 3What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 4What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa: Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
- 5What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 6What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? · Save America Act 93% (-2pp) — Kalshi oddspdata.world
9. Are full transcripts or reliable summaries of Donald Trump's 2026 tele-rallies publicly available for quantitative analysis?
| 2026 Tele-Rally Transcript Availability | Not established as publicly available for quantitative analysis [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Dubuque, Iowa Event Type | Midterm rally (Nov 1, 2026), not documented as a tele-rally [1][2][3][4] |
| June 8, 2026 Kalshi Tele-Rally Transcript | Not provided [4][5] |
Full transcripts or reliable summaries of Donald Trump's 2026 tele-rallies are not established as publicly available for quantitative analysis. For instance, the Dubuque, Iowa event scheduled for November 1, 2026, is identified as a midterm rally, but it is not documented as a tele-rally [1][2][3][4]. The published rules for this event do not establish the public availability of a full transcript or reliable pre-existing summary, instead describing official transcripts as a fallback resolution source rather than a public archive [2][3].
Direct tele-rally transcripts for 2026 are elusive, necessitating alternative data sources. For a separate June 8, 2026 market concerning a Trump Tele-Rally, the retrieved evidence did not provide a transcript or reliable summary of his remarks [4][5]. While the White House publishes some of Trump's 2025–2026 remarks and event media, including a December 2025 Pennsylvania rally summary and a 2026 policy-conference page, a comparable 2026 tele-rally transcript repository was not located during the search [6][7]. Consequently, for quantitative analysis, the most defensible public inputs currently found are the eventual livestream or video recording and any official transcript used for market settlement; third-party market pages, which expose phrase-level contract rules and odds for events such as the Dubuque rally, should not be treated as speech transcripts [1][2][3][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5UFC 250 at the White House – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 6President Trump in Pennsylvania: America Is Back — and We’re Just Getting Started – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 7President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s 2026 Policy Conference – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 8What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 9What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? · Save America Act 95% — Kalshi oddspdata.world
- 10What will Trump say during his… on Nov 1, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
10. What were the key campaign issues for Iowa Republican candidates Ashley Hinson and Zach Nunn leading into the November 3, 2026, election?
| Candidate-specific campaign issues | Not reliably established for Ashley Hinson or Zach Nunn [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Key prediction market themes (economic nationalism) | Made in America, Small Business, Steel [1][2][3] |
| Other prominent prediction market themes | Immigration enforcement (ICE, deportation), agriculture (Corn, farm terms), Save America Act [1][2][3] |
Available research does not establish specific campaign issues for Hinson or Nunn. The available research does not establish reliable, source-backed campaign-issue reporting for Iowa Republican candidates Ashley Hinson and Zach Nunn leading into the November 3, 2026, election [1][2][3]. Consequently, no candidate-specific issue list can be confidently stated from the provided sources [1][2][3].
Prediction markets suggest broader Republican messaging emphasizing economic nationalism. While specific candidate issues remain unconfirmed, campaign themes visible in prediction markets suggest a broader Republican messaging environment that likely emphasized several key areas [1][2][3]. These included economic nationalism and domestic production, with mentions such as Made in America, Small Business, and Steel [1][2][3]. Other notable market themes included immigration enforcement, agriculture, and trade/geopolitics involving China, Canada, and Russia/Ukraine [1][2][3]. Additionally, the Save America Act was a prominent market theme [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
- 1What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? · Save America Act 93% (-2pp) — Kalshi oddspdata.world
- 3What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa: Odds, Chart & News | 4Conservative Predictions4conservative.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A primary catalyst emerged on October 29, 2026, when Trump’s planned in-person Dubuque rally was canceled and replaced by a tele-rally supporting Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn, and Iowa Republicans [1][2][3]. This eliminated the potential for a live Dubuque speech to predict on November 1 [1][2][3]. The RNC stated the replacement tele-rally was driven by candidate demand in tight races and an unusually busy campaign schedule [3]. The original event schedule, including doors at 11:30 a.m. and Trump remarks around 3 p.m. Central, was for the Five Flags Event Center [4][5][6][7]. The Dubuque visit had been announced October 22, with venue and revised schedule publicized October 26–27 [1][2][3].
This shift immediately impacted prediction markets. Kalshi showed an 83–84% probability for “event does not qualify” on October 30, consistent with the canceled in-person event and uncertain settlement mechanics [8][9][10][11]. Among substantive mention markets, leading themes varied; "Save America Act" was about 93–96% in pdata.world’s October 29 snapshot, while "America First" and nuclear-related language were also prominent [9][10][11]. The original rally was intended as a last-minute turnout push before the November 3, 2026 midterms, particularly in eastern Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District and statewide Republican races [5][7][12]. Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann stated Trump uniquely mobilizes the party base, especially in the Mississippi River-area region [12]. The tele-rally presents a bifurcated interpretation: a bullish read for Republican turnout, or a bearish signal of concern about midterm headwinds and competitive Iowa races [12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 15, 2026
- Closes: November 15, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1Reports: Trump rally in Dubuque has been cancelled | News | kwwl.comkwwl.com
- 2Trump’s Dubuque rally cancelled, moved to tele-rallykwqc.com
- 3Trump’s Dubuque rally canceled, to be replaced with tele-rallycbs2iowa.com
- 4Midterm Rally in Dubuque, Iowa featuring President Donald J. Trumpevents.gop.com
- 5New schedule announced for President Trump's GOP rally in Dubuque ahead of midtermscbs2iowa.com
- 6President Trump to rally in Dubuque on November 1kcrg.com
- 7Trump to visit Dubuque just ahead of November midtermscbs2iowa.com
- 8What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 9Donald Trump: Rally in Dubuque, Iowa, Nov 1, 2026parrot.markets
- 10What will Trump say during his rally in Dubuque, Iowa? · Save America Act 93% (-2pp) — Kalshi oddspdata.world
- 11What will Trump say during his… on Nov 1, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
- 12Donald Trump's Nov. 1 Iowa rally is scheduled for Dubuquedesmoinesregister.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT29-DRIL: NO (Oct 29, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT29-MADU: YES (Oct 29, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT29-TAIW: NO (Oct 29, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT29-BESS: YES (Oct 29, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT29-ALAS: YES (Oct 29, 2026)
