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What will Trump say?

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 12 so far (0 live, 12 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new What will Trump say? markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated July 25, 2026

Series history

Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.

Market	Closed	Model vs market	Actions
What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?	August 8, 2026	0.0% vs 1.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his Speech to the Nation?	July 31, 2026	1.0% vs 3.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his July 4th rally?	July 19, 2026	0.3% vs 1.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump?	June 14, 2026	0.3% vs 1.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement?	June 4, 2026	4.8% vs 11.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his Bilateral Tea with the President of China?	May 29, 2026	1.0% vs 3.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips?	April 17, 2026	0.4% vs 1.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during his remarks at Turning Point USA?	April 18, 2026	64.0% vs 64.0%	Report →
What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?	April 26, 2026	47.1% vs 56.0%	Report →
What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?	March 1, 2026	10.0% vs 8.5%	Report →
Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?	March 2, 2026	35.0% vs 92.5%	Report →
What will Trump say during the State of the Union?	February 28, 2026	0.2% vs 37.5%	Report →

What will Trump say?

Series history

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