Live markets
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Market Model 1.0% 0.4%
Transparent / Transparency
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Crypto / Bitcoin
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Ballroom
Market Model 62.0% 35.7%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market
read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|
| What will Trump say during remarks in North Carolina? | September 30, 2026 | 92.3% vs 93.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his bilateral with the Taoiseach of Ireland? | September 26, 2026 | 88.7% vs 93.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)? | September 24, 2026 | 0.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his GB News interview? | September 18, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during Sunday Night in America? | September 14, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his Tele-Rally with Darline Graham? | September 8, 2026 | 1.2% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner? | August 8, 2026 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his Speech to the Nation? | July 31, 2026 | 1.0% vs 3.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his July 4th rally? | July 19, 2026 | 0.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during Fox News: My View with Lara Trump? | June 14, 2026 | 0.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement? | June 4, 2026 | 4.8% vs 11.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his Bilateral Tea with the President of China? | May 29, 2026 | 1.0% vs 3.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips? | April 17, 2026 | 0.4% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his remarks at Turning Point USA? | April 18, 2026 | 64.0% vs 64.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner? | April 26, 2026 | 47.1% vs 56.0% | Report → |
| What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address? | March 1, 2026 | 10.0% vs 8.5% | Report → |
| Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address? | March 2, 2026 | 35.0% vs 92.5% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during the State of the Union? | February 28, 2026 | 0.2% vs 37.5% | Report → |
