Short Answer

Donald Trump is expected to mention Oil / Gas / Gasoline during his October 9, 2026 rally in Syracuse, New York; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The probability in this market collapsed from 2% to 1% following Donald Trump's rally in Syracuse on October 9, 2026. The price drop on October 10 reflects the resolution of the market's question. News reports summarizing the roughly 80-minute speech focused on endorsements of Republican candidates and criticism of opponents. These summaries did not contain any reference to the topic the market was tracking.
The market consistently priced this outcome as a low-probability event. It traded within a narrow one-point range between 1% and 2% for its entire duration, indicating that traders never assigned a significant chance of the mention occurring. The final price move confirmed this initial sentiment.
  • Trump's rally messaging focused on national themes like Oil/Gas/Gasoline and Healthcare.
  • Trump endorsed Blakeman, locally attacking Governor Hochul on New York policy and race issues.
  • Trump asserted Blakeman could significantly cut New York electric bills by 50-90%.

Current Context

Donald Trump campaigned in Syracuse, focusing on Republican endorsements and attacks. On Friday, October 9, 2026, Trump spoke for approximately 1 hour 20 minutes at Syracuse’s Oncenter, campaigning for Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman against Governor Kathy Hochul [1][2][3][4]. His central message centered on electing Blakeman and other Republicans statewide; he also endorsed lieutenant-governor candidate Todd Hood and congressional candidates Kailee Buller and Anthony Constantino [1][2][3][4]. Trump attacked Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James, asserting New York had become dirty, expensive, unsafe, and was losing residents and its tax base [1][2][3][4]. He reiterated election-fraud claims against Democrats [1][2][3][4]. The rally occurred as Election Day approached in November 2026 for the New York gubernatorial and congressional races [5][6]. Syracuse University political-science professor Grant Reeher viewed Trump’s appearance as a double-edged strategy, capable of energizing Republicans while also mobilizing Democrats, suggesting turnout would be decisive over persuasion [6].
Policy emphasis included economic issues, and market forecasts anticipated content. Trump highlighted lower taxes, cheaper electricity, domestic energy production, immigration, and public safety [1][2][4]. He claimed Blakeman could reduce electric bills by figures ranging from 50–75% to 70–90% [1][2][4]. Prediction market themes broadly aligned with the speech's content. Kalshi snapshots indicated very high odds for references to Hochul, oil/gas/gasoline, Fake News, transgender issues, healthcare, sanctuary, and stimulus [7][8]. Polymarket reported "Yes" resolutions for Crime/Criminal 10+ times, Pipeline, and Electricity [9]. These figures represent market prices and resolution outcomes, not independent expert forecasts [7][9][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Trump at Syracuse rally airs grievances while touting Blakeman for governor - syracuse.comsyracuse.com
  2. 2President Trump backs local, statewide GOP candidates during Oct. 9 rally in Syracuse | WRVO Public Mediawrvo.org
  3. 3Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race - POLITICOpolitico.com
  4. 4Trump rallies in New York for Blakeman to unseat Democrat Gov. Hochul | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  5. 5Trump names conservative commentator as new White...nbcnews.com
  6. 6Trump stops in upstate New York to boost GOP turnout — but could energize Democrats, tooms.now
  7. 7What will Trump say during his rally in New York?kalshi.com
  8. 8What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds: Oil / Gas / Gasoline 98% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  9. 9What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in New York?polymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Made in America / American Made

📉 October 10, 2026: 84.0pp drop

Price decreased from 85.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 84.0 percentage point drop was the content of Donald Trump's rally in Syracuse, New York, on October 9, 2026, as widely reported on October 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. News coverage from multiple outlets extensively detailed Trump's remarks, which focused on supporting Republican candidates and discussing issues such as taxes, energy costs, immigration, and crime [1][5][2][3]. However, the specific phrase "Made in America / American Made" was not a documented theme or mentioned in the rally coverage [1][6][2][7][3][4]. The absence of this outcome in his actual speech directly led to the significant market price adjustment, rendering social media activity largely irrelevant.

Outcome: Fraud (3+ times)

📉 October 09, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 52.0% to 37.0%

What happened: The 15.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market outcome "Fraud (3+ times)" likely reflects an adjustment based on the actual content of Donald Trump's rally in Syracuse, New York, on October 9, 2026 [1][8][9][10]. While Trump did make "repeated claims that Democrats cheat in elections" and attacked politicians as "corrupt" [1][11][10], the available reports do not explicitly confirm he used the word "fraud" three or more times [1][12][11][10]. This suggests that initial market expectations for the specific phrasing were not met by the reported speech content. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives leading, coinciding with, or lagging the price move was identified in the provided research. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement, with the rally's actual discourse acting as the primary driver.

Outcome: Palestine / Palestinian

📉 October 08, 2026: 25.0pp drop

Price decreased from 65.0% to 40.0%

What happened: The 25.0 percentage point drop on October 08, 2026, for the "Palestine / Palestinian" outcome primarily reflects a market adjustment to evolving expectations regarding Trump's rally agenda. The rally, held the following day, focused on domestic issues like crime, immigration, and local politics, with no reported mention of "Palestine / Palestinian" in the detailed summaries of his remarks [1][2][3][13][14][15]. Although Trump mentioned the Israel-Hamas conflict in the context of the Nobel Peace Prize, this did not include the specific terms tracked by the market [16][17]. There is no evidence in the provided research of social media activity being a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even present during this price movement.

Outcome: Micron

📈 October 07, 2026: 48.0pp spike

Price increased from 25.0% to 73.0%

What happened: The prediction market price movement for "Micron" on October 7, 2026, could not have been caused by statements from Trump's New York rally, as the rally took place on October 9, 2026 [4][1][18][3]. The October 7 Micron stock spike is primarily attributed to bullish AI-memory-market commentary, including D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria raising his price target for the company [19][20][21][22][23]. While Trump did mention Micron at his rally, this occurred two days after the market movement [4][24]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price spike, which appears instead driven by traditional market analysis.

Outcome: Afford / Affordable / Affordability

📈 October 06, 2026: 76.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 88.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was traditional news coverage and the general political salience of affordability issues, directly influenced by recent actions from Donald Trump. On October 6, 2026, news outlets reported on Trump signing an executive order to extend the tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, stating it would save farmers "millions" and reduce transportation and grocery costs [25]. This specific announcement, coupled with broader media discussions on housing, energy, and grocery affordability [26], likely led market participants to anticipate Trump addressing these themes at his upcoming rally. Social media activity was not explicitly identified as a primary driver; instead, a prevailing news narrative about Trump's focus on cost-of-living issues coincided with the market spike [26].
Sources (26)
  1. 1Trump at Syracuse rally airs grievances while touting Blakeman for governor - syracuse.comsyracuse.com
  2. 2Trump Backs Blakeman’s Bid for NY Governor in Syracuse Rally With Mike Tyson | NTDntd.com
  3. 3Trump rallies in New York for Blakeman to unseat Democrat Gov. Hochul | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  4. 4President Trump backs local, statewide GOP candidates during Oct. 9 rally in Syracuse | WRVO Public Mediawrvo.org
  5. 5Donald Trump calls NY Attorney General Letitia James a 'disgusting dog' in vile rant at rally - AOLaol.com
  6. 6Trump's pitch to Central New York: Despite war, rising prices, a...centralcurrent.org
  7. 7President Trump rallies in New York, vows to help Republicans defeat Hochulrsbnetwork.com
  8. 8Trump's speech in Syracuse ranges from taxes &...syracuse.com
  9. 9Trump Rallies With Blakeman in Syracuse as GOP Seeks to Spur Turnout | Nyt-feed | dailygazette.comdailygazette.com
  10. 10LIVE BLOG: Trump rally in Syracusecbs6albany.com
  11. 11Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race – USATimes247.comusatimes247.com
  12. 12Trump rallies New York crowd for Republican Bruce Blakeman's bid to replace Gov. Kathy Hochul | The New York Ledgerthenyledger.com
  13. 13What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in New York?polymarket.com
  14. 14What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in New York?probsee.com
  15. 15What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in New York?coinstats.app
  16. 16Donald Trump slams Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Navi Pillay over snub | The Jerusalem Postjpost.com
  17. 17Trump Slams Nobel Peace Prize Winner as ‘Mystery Person’ in New York Rally - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  18. 18Trump Rallies for Blakeman in Syracuse — Civic Stream Newscivicstream.tv
  19. 19Another Micron triple? Where we agree with this wildly bullish call and where we don'tcnbc.com
  20. 20Chip stock could soar nearly 200%, analyst says: "If you don’t buy it, they will" By Investing.cominvesting.com
  21. 21‘The Penny’s About to Drop,’ Says Top Investor About Micron Stocktipranks.com
  22. 22Micron's Taoyuan union wins strike authorization as Taiwan bonus fight escalates — TickerGrovetickergrove.com
  23. 23Micron at $1,075: the $3,000 Call Is Math, Not Hype — But the Strike Vote Is the Tell | Oct 7, 2026thethings.ai
  24. 24Transcript: Trump Remarks at Syracuse, New York Rally – Oct 9, 2026 – The Singju Postsingjupost.com
  25. 25Trump signs order extending tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, saying it will save farmers ‘millions’kait8.com
  26. 26Young voters struggle to afford housing, don't expect politicians to helpcnbc.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market allows trading on whether specific terms like "Transgender," "Ceasefire," or "Crypto / Bitcoin" will be mentioned by Trump during his New York rally. The provided page content does not specify the exact conditions for a YES or NO resolution based on these mentions. The market has a maximum payout date of October 23, 2026.

Market Discussion

During his rally on Friday, October 9, 2026, in Syracuse, New York, Donald Trump endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman and strongly criticized Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James, calling James a “disgusting dog” [1][2][3][4]. He focused on issues such as New York's crime, immigration, and energy costs, while also highlighting claimed administration achievements and local economic development; prediction markets before the event signaled high probabilities for mentions of oil/gas/gasoline and “Fake News” [1][5][2][3][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Trump at Syracuse rally airs grievances while touting Blakeman for governor - syracuse.comsyracuse.com
  2. 2Trump boosts a New York ally in a tough race - POLITICOpolitico.com
  3. 3Trump praises Blakeman; denounces Hochul, Democrats...cbs6albany.com
  4. 4Donald Trump calls NY Attorney General Letitia James a 'disgusting dog' in vile rant at rally - AOLaol.com
  5. 5Trump Backs Blakeman’s Bid for NY Governor in Syracuse Rally With Mike Tyson | NTDntd.com
  6. 6What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds: Oil / Gas / Gasoline 98% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com

5. What strategic goals for the 2026 midterms shaped Donald Trump's messaging at the Syracuse rally for Bruce Blakeman?

Primary Congressional GoalHelp Republicans retain or expand control of Congress in the 2026 midterms [1][2][3]
New York State GoalFlip New York red by supporting Bruce Blakeman [4][3]
Messaging & Mobilization StrategyConnect midterms to pocketbook/public-safety concerns and mobilize base [4][3][1][5][2]
Donald Trump's Syracuse rally primarily aimed to secure Republican congressional majorities. His strategic objectives for the 2026 midterms were centered on assisting Republicans in either retaining or expanding their control of Congress. Trump explicitly urged voters to elect a Republican House and Senate, with the event specifically supporting congressional candidates, including Mike Lawler and other New York Republicans [1][2][3]. A significant secondary goal involved nationalizing Kathy Hochul’s gubernatorial race, leveraging Bruce Blakeman as a means to potentially turn New York Republican. Trump portrayed Blakeman as a prospective savior for the state and pledged White House backing if he won [4][3].
Trump's messaging connected midterms to key economic and public safety concerns. His policy points at the rally emphasized lower taxes, affordable energy, increased domestic energy production, stringent immigration enforcement, and efforts to reduce crime and enhance street safety [4][3]. The rally's strategy was designed to mobilize his base rather than to persuade moderate voters, with New York Republicans anticipating higher turnout among MAGA voters and robust support for down-ballot candidates [1][5][2]. However, the messaging exhibited a lack of strict discipline; for example, Trump deviated into grievances regarding the Nobel Prize, underscoring a tension between campaign objectives and his tendency to air personal and national political grievances [6][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies with New York's GOP gubernatorial...pbs.org
  2. 2Trump spends New York rally complaining about Nobel...apnews.com
  3. 3President Trump visits Syracuse for midterm rallyspectrumlocalnews.com
  4. 4Trump rallies in New York for Blakeman to unseat...foxnews.com
  5. 5While Trump rallies in Syracuse, most GOP leaders say...syracuse.com
  6. 6Trump veers into Nobel Prize grievances during upstate...sun-sentinel.com

6. How accurately did prediction markets like Kalshi forecast the specific topics Trump mentioned in his October 9, 2026 speech?

Qualitative Forecast RecordVery strong for highest-probability topics [1]
Exact Accuracy CalculationCannot be calculated from available records [1]
Top Market Predictions (Example)Oil/Gas/Gasoline at 97–98% [1][2][3]
Prediction markets provided strong qualitative forecasts for high-probability speech topics. While these markets demonstrated a very strong qualitative forecast record for topics with the highest probabilities concerning a specific speech, such as Trump's October 9, 2026 address, a defensible exact accuracy percentage cannot be calculated. This is because the available search record does not contain a full contract-by-contract final resolution list and contemporaneous closing prices for every outcome [1]. The market operated using binary, phrase-level Yes/No contracts for each topic, indicating that appropriate evaluation methods are calibration and contract-level hit rate rather than identifying a single winning topic [1][4][3].
Markets accurately predicted several core themes with high probabilities before the speech. Immediately preceding or around the time of the address, the strongest market predictions included Oil/Gas/Gasoline at approximately 97–98%, Fake News at 96–98%, Hochul at 94–97%, Healthcare at 94%, Transgender at 94–99%, and Dividend/Stimulus at about 96% [1][2][3]. Post-speech reporting and the available transcript confirm that Trump mentioned energy/oil and gasoline prices, attacked Kathy Hochul, discussed healthcare and lower prescription-drug prices, and promoted a $5,000 Trump dividend [5][6][7][8]. This indicates the market successfully anticipated core themes like energy prices, Hochul/New York Democrats, healthcare/drug prices, and a dividend/stimulus proposal [1].
Market performance varied, with some high-probability topics unconfirmed and others missed. While the market performed strongly on themes with high probabilities, it also assigned meaningful probability to some topics that current speech reports do not clearly confirm, such as Zohran/Mamdani, Iran, Israel, or a ceasefire [4]. Conversely, reporting prominently documents Trump's discussions on immigration, crime, taxes, Letitia James, and the Nobel Peace Prize [5][6][7][8], demonstrating that market performance diverged across topics and that lower-probability misses may have occurred [4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds: Oil / Gas / Gasoline 98% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  2. 2Trump Will Very Likely Hit All His Usual Rhetorical Marks in Syracuse — Priced In Newspricedinnews.com
  3. 3What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4What will Trump say during his rally in New York?coinstats.app
  5. 5President Trump visits Syracuse for midterm rallyspectrumlocalnews.com
  6. 6Trump Remarks at Syracuse, New York Rally – Oct 9, 2026singjupost.com
  7. 7Trump veers into Nobel Prize grievances during upstate...nbcrightnow.com
  8. 8Trump veers into Nobel Prize grievances during upstate...newsday.com

7. How did Trump's attacks on New York Governor Kathy Hochul differ from his typical criticisms of national figures like Joe Biden?

Biden mentions by Trump in 2026nearly 900 times [1]
Hochul's role in 2026concrete opponent in the New York governor's race [2]
Hochul mention likelihood at Syracuse rallyhighly likely (Oct 9-10, 2026) [3][4]
Trump's criticisms of New York Governor Kathy Hochul were distinct and locally focused. His attacks centered on localized, policy- and race-specific issues, often involving direct institutional conflict [5][6]. During his appearances in New York, Donald Trump directly assailed Hochul's governing record, particularly concerning public safety and crime, and engaged in personal attacks, also insulting New York Attorney General Letitia James [5]. This dynamic included direct institutional conflict, notably when Trump declared Manhattan congestion pricing "dead," to which Governor Hochul retorted that "New York had not had a king for 250 years" [6]. Hochul served as a concrete opponent in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, with Trump endorsing Republican Bruce Blakeman and linking his New York messaging to defeating the incumbent governor [2]. The prediction market for a Syracuse midterm rally in October 2026 indicated a Hochul mention was highly likely, highlighting her prominence as a local rally topic [3][4].
Conversely, Trump invoked Joe Biden as a broad national blame target. In 2026, Trump mentioned Joe Biden nearly 900 times, primarily positioning him as responsible for national issues such as inflation, the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and national security [1]. Unlike Governor Hochul, who was an immediate office-seeking rival in 2026, Biden was not [2]. Trump therefore utilized him chiefly as a retrospective national scapegoat and a recurring partisan symbol [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Trump's favorite 2026 campaign target is Biden: nearly 900 mentions and counting | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2Republican Bruce Blakeman rallies with Trump in NY governor's race | AP Newsapnews.com
  3. 3What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds: Transgender 96% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  5. 5Trump highlights record on crime in visit to New York police academy | AP Newsapnews.com
  6. 6NY Gov. Hochul makes case for Manhattan tolls in meeting with Trump | AP Newsapnews.com

8. Where can traders find verified transcripts and reliable viewership data for the October 9, 2026, Syracuse rally?

Primary transcript sourceSingju Post [1]
Primary evidence for resolutionVideo [2][3][4]
Contracts traded (Oct 9, 23:20 UTC)801.7K [5][6]
Searchable transcripts and primary audiovisual records are available for the Syracuse rally. Traders can find a full text, searchable transcript of the October 9, 2026, Syracuse rally published by Singju Post [1]. Key remarks from this transcript can be verified against an Associated Press report, which was syndicated by Newsday/NBC Right Now [7]. For primary audiovisual evidence, the live and archived video stream is accessible, including a listing on the One America News Network Facebook page [8]. The C-SPAN Campaign 2026 archive should also be consulted for additional footage [9]. For the resolution of the relevant Kalshi market, KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT09, video evidence is prioritized, with transcripts serving as fallback [2][3][4]. Kalshi's specific rules designate the live broadcast or stream as primary, followed by official, internal, or external transcripts if video evidence does not allow for consensus [8].
No reliable Nielsen-style audience or viewership figures were identified. Publicly available search results did not surface reliable Nielsen-style audience or viewership figures for the October 9, 2026, Syracuse rally [6]. It is important to differentiate market trading volume from broadcast viewership; an Associated Press report confirmed the event took place but did not establish total viewers [7][5].
Kalshi serves as the authoritative source for market trading volume data. For market-state and trading-volume data related to the event, Kalshi is the authoritative venue [5]. A Kalshi View snapshot taken at 23:20 UTC on October 9 reported a total of 801.7K contracts traded, with 585.1K of these contracts having been traded within the preceding 24 hours [5][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Trump Remarks at Syracuse, New York Rally – Oct 9, 2026singjupost.com
  2. 2What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3What will Trump say during his rally in New York?kalshi.com
  4. 4What will Trump say during his rally in New York? - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Kalshi Odds: Transgender 96% | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  6. 6What will Trump say during his rally in New York? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Trump veers into Nobel Prize grievances during upstate...newsday.com
  8. 8Pres. Trump Holds Midterm Rally for N.Y. GOP Candidatesfacebook.com
  9. 9Campaign 2026 - Election Resultsc-span.org

9. What evidence, if any, supported Trump's claim at the Syracuse rally that Bruce Blakeman could cut New York electric bills by 50-90%?

Claim made byDonald Trump at October 9, 2026 Syracuse rally [1][2][3]
Claimed electric bill reduction50-90% for New Yorkers [1][2][3]
Evidence supporting claimNone found in contemporaneous coverage [1][2][3]
Donald Trump claimed Bruce Blakeman could significantly cut New York electric bills. At an October 9, 2026 rally in Syracuse, Trump asserted that electing Bruce Blakeman as governor would reduce New Yorkers' electric bills by 70-90%, a figure he quickly adjusted to 50-75% [1][2][3]. Trump attributed these potential savings to Blakeman's ability to utilize New York's alleged oil reserves, drawing comparisons to Texas, and addressing what he described as the state's high electricity costs [1][2][3].
No credible evidence substantiated Trump's specific cost-saving figures. Contemporaneous reporting did not provide quantitative proof for the promised 50-90% reductions [1][3][4]. These figures were identified as a campaign assertion by Trump, lacking a detailed policy plan, engineering analysis, regulatory filing, or independent forecast [1][3][4]. While Blakeman reportedly campaigned on lowering utility bills, this was presented as a campaign promise rather than a demonstrated outcome or a fully outlined implementation strategy [1][4]. Consequently, no external data or expert analysis was found to support the dramatic cost-saving figures put forth by Trump [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Trump at Syracuse rally airs grievances while touting...syracuse.com
  2. 2Trump praises Blakeman; denounces Hochul, Democrats...cbs6albany.com
  3. 3Trump Remarks at Syracuse, New York Rally – Oct 9, 2026singjupost.com
  4. 4Campaigns & Elections - City & State New Yorkcityandstateny.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The October 9, 2026, Syracuse rally occurred within the context of the New York governor’s race and the impending November 3 midterm election [1]. Market-relevant catalysts included Hochul/Blakeman polling and campaign dynamics [1]. Donald Trump endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman and attacked Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James [1][2][3]. Trump stated New York suffers from high costs, elevated crime, corruption, and policies that displace people and businesses [1][2][3].
Dominant policy themes in the speech included illegal immigration, sanctuary policies, crime, and energy prices [1][2][3]. Trump promised a federal response to New York crime within 24 hours if Blakeman requested it, and claimed energy costs were sharply reducible [1][2][3]. Other market-relevant catalysts identified were the New York City ICE shooting and the immigration debate, energy prices, and Trump’s national midterm message [1][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: October 23, 2026
  • Closes: October 23, 2026
Sources (3)
  1. 1Trump at Syracuse rally airs grievances while touting Blakeman for governor - syracuse.comsyracuse.com
  2. 2President Trump denounces Hochul, James in speechcbs6albany.com
  3. 3Trump pledges to partner with Blakeman to ‘straighten out’ New York crime, illegal immigration and energy prices: ‘I’ll be there within 24 hours’ - American Talkamericantalk.live

12. Related News

-84.0pp
Last updated: October 10, 2026, 12:21 UTC

Trump's Syracuse Speech Content Drives Market Realignment

The content of Donald Trump’s October 9 rally in Syracuse, New York, has triggered a definitive repricing in markets on the Kalshi exchange forecasting his speech topics. A contract for Trump mentioni...

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT08-VACC: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT08-TESL: YES (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT08-TARI: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT08-SUPE: YES (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPMENTION-26OCT08-SPAC: NO (Oct 08, 2026)