Will Trump be impeached during his term?

Prediction markets indicate a high probability of Donald Trump's impeachment by the House during his term. As of November 12, 2026, Kalshi prices "Will Trump be impeached during his term?" (before January 20, 2029) at 67-72% YES, with 1.0M contracts traded and 308K open interest ^[1][2]. Polymarket shows a 67% YES probability for the same question ^[3]. The odds of impeachment have significantly risen, from 33% after his 2024 election win to 59% a year into his term, reaching 66-69% by late 2026 ^[4][5][6]. Kalshi's deadline-specific markets show a "staircase" pattern, suggesting impeachment is expected in the first months of the new Democratic-controlled Congress in early 2027 ^[7][8][9]. For instance, the probability is 1.4% before January 1, 2027, rising to 14% before March 1, 2027, and 59% before January 1, 2028 ^[7][8][9]. Polymarket projects a 50% chance of impeachment by June 30, 2027 ^[10].

Democratic midterm wins enable House impeachment, with prior efforts already noted. Democrats gained control of both the House with at least a 20-seat majority and the Senate with a 52-48 split in the November 2026 midterms ^[4][11][12]. This provides them the necessary simple majority to pass articles of impeachment in the House ^[4][11][12]. Multiple impeachment articles were filed against Trump in the 119th Congress, including resolutions from Rep. Al Green in May and December 2025, and a 13-article resolution from Rep. John Larson in April 2026, citing actions related to the Iran war, Venezuela, National Guard deployments, and a birthright citizenship executive order ^{[13][14][15][16]}. None advanced under Republican House control ^{[13][14][15][16]}. However, Democratic appetite for impeachment has grown, evidenced by 140 Democrats opposing the tabling of articles in December 2025, up from 79 in June 2025 ^[17]. The April 2026 Iran crisis, following Trump's "a whole civilization will die tonight" threat, spurred over 85 House Democrats to call for impeachment or 25th Amendment removal ^[13][14]. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) warned that Democrats would "impeach the president day one" if they won the House, and a faction of House Democrats was reportedly preparing for "Day 1" impeachment votes in January 2027 ^[18][19][20]. The November 10, 2026, vote to table the impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, effectively killing it, is viewed as a precursor to broader impeachment efforts, including a potential third attempt against Trump ^[21][22][23]. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) also predicted that the House would impeach Trump, potentially multiple times, if Democrats gained control ^[11].

Senate conviction requires Republican crossovers, making it highly unlikely. Even if the House impeaches Trump, conviction in the Senate demands a two-thirds supermajority, or 67 votes ^{[21][24][25][9]}. With Democrats holding 52 Senate seats, at least 15 Republican senators would need to vote to convict ^{[21][24][25][9]}. No sitting president has ever been convicted by the Senate ^{[21][24][25][9]}. Prediction markets for Senate conviction reflect this hurdle, showing a near 0% probability ^{[21][24][25][9]}. Law professor Frank O. Bowman III suggests Democrats have legal grounds for impeachment but cautions against rushing the process, stating it could detract from practical governance ^[21][26]. Yale Law professor Keith Whittington notes that the best strategy for conviction would involve negotiating with Republican senators to secure sufficient crossover votes ^[21][26].