Short Answer

OpenRouter token usage for Nov 9–15, 2026, is likely to exceed 207 trillion tokens. The prior week's usage resolved at 209.52T, driving the market to price this outcome at 56.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's probability collapsed on November 11 following the release of OpenRouter's official token usage data. The company's "Monday Brief №27" reported a record 209.52 trillion tokens metered for the week ending November 9. While an 8.23% week-over-week increase, the figure was apparently below the market's elevated expectations, causing the contract's price to drop 26 percentage points from 30% to 4%.
That move reversed a sharp price spike from the previous day. On November 10, a social media report from Patrick Collison stated that OpenRouter was serving roughly 125% more tokens per week than at the time of the Stripe acquisition announcement. This report from a credible source drove positive sentiment and appears to be the primary driver behind the market's initial rally.
  • OpenRouter usage for Nov 9-15 will likely exceed 207T, following prior week's 209.52T.
  • Usage above 232T appears unlikely, given consistent growth patterns and recent market sentiment.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 240T tokens 4.0% 0.4% This threshold demands an even larger surge not supported by recent consistent growth patterns from 209.52T.
Above 232T tokens 10.0% 0.5% Achieving 232T requires substantial, uncharacteristic acceleration from 209.52T, contradicting observed consistent growth.
Above 207T tokens 56.0% 60.6% The prior week's usage of 209.52T already surpassed this level, indicating consistent growth.
Above 215T tokens 25.0% 16.3% Usage growth exhibits consistent rather than exponential acceleration from the prior week's 209.52T tokens.
Above 228T tokens 12.0% 0.8% Achieving this level requires substantial, uncharacteristic acceleration, contradicting observed consistent growth from 209.52T.

Current Context

OpenRouter token usage predictions remain strong, reflecting continued exponential growth. Prediction markets indicate high probabilities for OpenRouter token usage to exceed 207T tokens for the week of November 9-15, 2026. Kalshi shows a 56% probability for usage above 207T, 44% for above 215T, and 21% for above 218T, as of November 11, 2026 [1][2]. Polymarket projects a 32% probability for usage between 210-220T tokens, 31% for 200-210T, 21% for 220-230T, 16% for under 200T, and 12% for above 230T for the same week [3][4]. This follows the previous week (November 2-8, 2026) resolving above 207T tokens with 99% probability [5]. OpenRouter averaged approximately 29T tokens per day over November 1-10, 2026, marking a 34x increase year-over-year [6]. October 2026 set a record with 790T tokens, up 37% from September and 25x from January 2026 [7]. Weekly token usage grew 23x, from 4.9T in September 2025 to 115T in August-September 2026 [8]. Agentic token usage surpassed human usage in early February 2026, rising fourteenfold from a 7-day average of 0.51T to 7.3T by August 10, 2026 [9]. Chinese models supplied 66% of OpenRouter tokens over the past four weeks, while US models accounted for 58% of the dollars spent [6].
AI market sentiment showed mixed signals amid crypto dips and tech shifts. Vitalik Buterin argued on November 9, 2026, that slowing the AI data center race is beneficial, citing that improved algorithms could enable today's data centers to achieve in four years what larger ones could in two [10]. The seven largest AI tokens saw an average decline of 29.7% over the past 30 days, with Worldcoin (WLD) down 43.2%, FET down 37.5%, and NEAR down 33.9% [10]. Anthropic's IPO window narrowed significantly, with an announced price range of $70-$78 per share, implying a $1.404 trillion valuation; Goldman Sachs is at 96% to be the lead-left underwriter [11]. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, released September 3, 2026, achieved a Critical threshold for cybersecurity under the company's Preparedness Framework, scoring 100% on ExploitBench and identifying two new zero-day vulnerabilities [12]. Prediction markets show a 38% probability of OpenAI releasing a GPT-6-class model before the end of Q2 2027, a 44% chance xAI files for IPO before the end of 2027, and a 26% chance Anthropic does the same [13]. Upcoming industry events include the WIPO Global Forum on IP and AI (November 9-10, 2026) and the first annual meeting of the AIII (November 11, 2026) [14]. The AI Leadership Summit is scheduled for November 17-18, 2026, in New York, and Stanford HAI's AI100 seminar for November 18, 2026 [15][16].
Sources (16)
  1. 1OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage week of November 9?polymarket.com
  4. 4OpenRouter token usage week of November 9? | Futurefuture.news
  5. 5OpenRouter token usage in Nov 2–8, 2026 Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6OpenRouter tokens and spend tracker · 06.ai06.ai
  7. 7Tokens rose 37% in October | OpenRouteropenrouter.ai
  8. 8OpenRouterの利用量が1年で20倍超　今も加速する「AI共通API」について私たちが知るべきこと：Deep Insider Brief ― 技術の“今”にひと言コメント - ＠ITatmarkit.itmedia.co.jp
  9. 9When Intelligence Becomes a Utility: AI Infrastructurermeerasahib.substack.com
  10. 10Vitalik Buterin Backs an AI Slowdown as AI Tokens Slide 30%: Is the AI Crypto Bubble Popping?finance.yahoo.com
  11. 11AI Market Intelligence Daily - November 10, 2026 | AI PE Playbookaipeplaybook.com
  12. 12GPT-6 Astra and Crypto: The AI Token Bid and the Cyber Riskweex.com
  13. 13AI and Tech Prediction Markets: What Traders Think Will Happen Next (November 2026) – PredictWirepredictwire.io
  14. 14Global Forum on IP and AIwipo.int
  15. 15The AI Leadership Summitconference-board.org
  16. 16AI100 | AI Goes Mainstream: The Scaling Era and the Rise of Generative AI | Stanford HAIhai.stanford.edu

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 232T tokens

📉 November 11, 2026: 63.0pp drop

Price decreased from 73.0% to 10.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 63.0 percentage point drop on November 11, 2026, was the release of OpenRouter's token usage data for the week ending November 9, 2026 [1]. The "Monday Brief №27" announced OpenRouter metered a record 209.52 trillion tokens for that period, which, despite an 8.23% week-over-week increase, remained considerably below the 232T outcome threshold [1]. This news, likely available on or around November 11, caused traders to sharply reassess the probability of OpenRouter exceeding 232T tokens for the current week, leading to the substantial price correction from a likely over-optimistic ~88-90% [1][2][3][4]. Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or even a noise factor, as no relevant posts from key figures or viral narratives are evident in the provided research.

Outcome: Above 228T tokens

📈 November 10, 2026: 70.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 70.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 70.0 percentage point price spike on November 10, 2026, was a social media report from Patrick Collison [5]. Collison, a highly credible figure, reported on Nov 10, 2026, that OpenRouter was serving roughly 125% more tokens per week than when the Stripe acquisition was announced in August 2026 [5]. This significant growth metric, released on the same day as the market movement, indicated accelerating token usage beyond the previous week's record of 209.52 trillion tokens [1][5], making the "Above 228T tokens" outcome significantly more plausible. Social media was therefore the primary driver of this market movement.
Sources (5)
  1. 1📊 The Monday Brief №27 — Half Off the List - by Yuzu Xuchinaaidispatch.substack.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Open source token share Nov 2–8 (OpenRouter) Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4Goldman Sachs: AI Token Price Collapse Threatens Capital Spending Logic | KuCoinkucoin.com
  5. 5OpenRouter Token Volume Up ~125% Weekly Since Stripe Acquisition Announcement - RSS.bzrss.bz

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if OpenRouter's total token usage between November 9 and November 15, 2026, exceeds 207 Trillion tokens. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the token usage is 207 Trillion tokens or less during that period. The market's resolution is based on data collected up to November 15, 2026, which is also the maximum payout date. No special settlement conditions are mentioned beyond the token usage threshold.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 207T tokens $0.57 $0.53 56%
Above 215T tokens $0.31 $0.80 25%
Above 228T tokens $0.12 $0.89 12%
Above 232T tokens $0.10 $0.91 10%
Above 240T tokens $0.02 $1.00 4%
Above 218T tokens $0.26 $0.84 0%
Above 221T tokens $0.21 $0.82 0%
Above 223T tokens $0.14 $0.87 0%
Above 225T tokens $0.15 $0.90 0%

Market Discussion

Prediction markets reflect varying probabilities for OpenRouter's token usage from Nov 9–15, 2026, with Kalshi and Public.com indicating a 56% probability of exceeding 207T tokens [1][2], while Polymarket's leading range is 210-220T tokens [3][4]. This follows an AhaSignals report that OpenRouter processed approximately 208.6T tokens during 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-09, marking a 5.42% weekly increase [5]. This prior week's usage already surpassed the 207T threshold being traded in the Nov 9–15 market [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage week of November 9?polymarket.com
  4. 4OpenRouter token usage week of November 9? | Futurefuture.news
  5. 5AI Demand Brief: Weekly Token Growth, Breadth and Revisionsahasignals.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

“KXTOKENUSE 26NOV16 T215” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score74Good

Market integrity is low (57), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score58Caution
Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
57Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“KXTOKENUSE 26NOV16 T215” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Large tradesTrade signals · high confidence

Largest single print on KXTOKENUSE-26NOV16-T232 carried 48% of its $79 tape (window is 90% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
58Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 240T tokens5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 232T tokens57
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above 207T tokens59
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
64Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 207T tokens51
Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Above 232T tokens82
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Above 240T tokens—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 207T tokens100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 232T tokens100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 240T tokens100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
58Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 58 (notional-weighted across 3 scored legs)

6 below the volume floor — not scored

Above 207T tokens59Market scoreLiquidity59Move quality51Rule clarity100
Why 59
Liquidity
59 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
51 · Mixed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 232T tokens57Market scoreLiquidity57Move quality82Rule clarity100
Why 57
Liquidity
57 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
82 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above 240T tokensPrimary5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 11, 2026

6. Which new AI agent frameworks, particularly those leveraging GPT-6 Astra's capabilities, are positioned to significantly increase agentic token consumption on OpenRouter in mid-November 2026?

Astra 6.1+ Release Before Nov 13, 202649% probability [1]
OpenRouter Token Usage Nov 9–15, 2026207.4T tokens (market median) [2][3][4]
DeepSeek Top Model Nov 9, 202682% probability [5]
Specific AI agent frameworks are not yet identified for increased token consumption. While current research does not pinpoint new AI agent frameworks poised to significantly boost token consumption on OpenRouter in mid-November 2026, OpenAI's Astra 6.1+ model represents a potential influential factor. There is a 49% probability of this model's public release before November 13, 2026, which could substantially impact agentic token usage on OpenRouter within the November 9–15, 2026 window [1]. The model has a 95% probability of being publicly released before December 31, 2026 [1].
The agentic AI landscape is highly competitive with prominent contenders. Entities such as Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Meta, and OpenAI are listed as contenders on the Agent Arena Capabilities leaderboard [6][7]. DeepSeek is projected to be the most likely top AI model on OpenRouter for the week of November 9, 2026, with an 82% probability, underscoring the ongoing importance of open-weight models [5]. Furthermore, open source models are anticipated to constitute over 78% of OpenRouter's token share during November 23–29, 2026, with a 99% probability [8]. Overall, OpenRouter usage is forecast to have a median of 207.4 trillion tokens for the November 9–15, 2026 period [2][3][4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Most popular AI this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Top AI agent this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Top AI agent this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter) Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

7. Does OpenRouter's token usage data from early November 2026 confirm the exponential growth seen in Q3 and October, or does it show a deceleration that would justify the market's recent price drops?

Token Usage Growth (Sep-Nov 2026)From 165T to 208T weekly (43T increase over 5-6 weeks) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Average Weekly IncreaseApproximately 7-8T tokens [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Prediction Market Median (Nov 9-15, 2026)207.4T tokens [7][8][9][10][11]
OpenRouter's token usage data shows consistent, non-exponential growth. From late September to early November 2026, weekly token usage increased steadily from approximately 165T to 208T, representing a total rise of about 43T tokens over a five-to-six-week period [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This averaged 7-8T tokens per week, indicating a stable upward trajectory. However, this growth rate does not reflect the exponential acceleration that would typically be required to justify aggressive market pricing [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Specific weekly figures further illustrate this pattern of stable increases. Usage resolved in the 164-166T band for September 28–October 4 [6], followed by 170-172T for October 5–11 [4]. A dip occurred the following week, with usage below 166T for October 12–18 [5], before rising to 186-188T for October 19–25 [3]. Subsequent weeks saw 192-194T for October 26–November 1 [2], and 207-210T for November 2–8, 2026 [1]. This sequence confirms relatively consistent weekly increases, generally in the range of 6-8T tokens, supporting the observation of steady but not accelerating growth [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Future market predictions suggest a potential deceleration in the growth rate. The live Kalshi prediction market for OpenRouter token usage from November 9–15, 2026, has a median estimate of 207.4T tokens [7][8][9][10][11]. The market assigns a 56% probability of exceeding 207T, but only a 25% probability of surpassing 215T tokens, and a mere 12% chance of exceeding 228T tokens [7][8][9][10][11]. This projection, suggesting usage between 207T and 215T for the week, would represent a minimal increase of 0-7T tokens from the previous week's usage band, which aligns with recent market price drops [7][1][8][10].
Sources (11)
  1. 1OpenRouter token usage in Nov 2–8, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1 Nov 1, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5OpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–18 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6OpenRouter token usage in Sep 28–Oct 4 Oct 4, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  8. 8OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  10. 10OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  11. 11Will OpenRouter token usage for Nov 9–15, 2026 be above… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

8. How do leading Chinese models and US models on OpenRouter compare in terms of token-per-dollar cost and overall consumption volume in Q4 2026?

Open-weight model token shareExpected 71.8%+ of OpenRouter's weekly token share for Nov 9–15, 2026 [1][2]
DeepSeek market shareExpected above 30.8% (71% probability) for the week of Nov 9, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]
OpenRouter November token usageExpected to exceed 950T tokens (73% probability) [8][9][10]
Chinese models are projected to lead OpenRouter's Q4 2026 token consumption. Their dominance is attributed to a significant token-per-dollar cost advantage. Specifically, open-weight models, primarily Chinese, are expected to comprise over 71.8% of OpenRouter's weekly token share for November 9–15, 2026 [1][2]. DeepSeek, a prominent Chinese model provider, has consistently been the highest-usage company, with its market share predicted to exceed 30.8% for the week of November 9, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7]. This trend underscores the direct correlation between lower per-token pricing and higher consumption volume [10][3][4][7].
OpenRouter's overall token usage is substantial, with US models leading in quality. Total AI token usage for November 2026 on OpenRouter is projected to be massive, exceeding 950 trillion tokens [8][9][10]. This substantial volume is largely fueled by the affordability of Chinese open-weight models [8][9][10]. While Chinese models are anticipated to lead in consumption volume, US models are expected to maintain their leadership in quality [9][10][4]. For example, Gemini 4 Carbon (High) is identified as the top AI model for November 2026 with a 73% probability, and Claude is noted for leading in coding AI [9][10]. OpenAI's market share is forecast to be around 18.2-19.4% for the week of November 9, 2026, indicating continued significant usage for US models despite their comparatively higher per-token pricing [9][10][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter) Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter) Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3DeepSeek market share this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  4. 4Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7DeepSeek market share this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Top Chinese AI company this month Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  10. 10Most popular AI this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com

9. What are the primary data sources for tracking OpenRouter's daily token usage, and what is their typical reporting lag for the November 2026 period?

Primary Data SourceOpenRouter's AI Model Rankings page [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Typical Reporting LagApproximately 1 day after the 7-day UTC calendar period ends [1][2][8][9][10][11][12][13]
Highest-priced market outcome (Nov 9-15, 2026)'Above 240T tokens' at 49.5% (as of Nov 10, 2026) [1][2][3][14][15]
OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings page is the key source for token usage. This page serves as the primary data source for tracking daily token usage for the November 2026 period, specifically designated for the relevant Kalshi prediction market [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. A reporting lag of approximately one day typically follows the conclusion of the 7-day UTC calendar period [1][2][8][9][10][11][12][13]. For example, token usage for the period of November 9-15, 2026, will be resolved based on the value observed at 10:00 AM ET on November 16, 2026, which is the Monday immediately following that week [1][2][8][9][10][11][12][13].
Prediction markets offer insight into anticipated token usage levels. The Kalshi prediction market for OpenRouter token usage during November 9-15, 2026, is scheduled to close on November 16, 2026, at 4:59 AM UTC [1][2][3][14][15]. As of November 10, 2026, the outcome 'Above 240T tokens' held the highest price in this market at 49.5% for the November 9-15, 2026 period [1][2][3][14][15]. Providing historical context, the final OpenRouter token usage for the preceding November 2-8, 2026 period ranged between 207-210T [8].
Sources (15)
  1. 1OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  4. 4Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Most popular AI this week Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Most popular AI this week Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8OpenRouter token usage in Nov 2–8, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  9. 9OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  10. 10OpenRouter token usage in Sep 28–Oct 4 Oct 4, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  11. 11OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  12. 12OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1 Nov 1, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  13. 13OpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–18 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  14. 14OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  15. 15OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

10. Is the bearish sentiment in AI-related crypto tokens like WLD and FET in late 2026 correlated with a measurable slowdown in developer project deployments on platforms like OpenRouter?

OpenRouter Weekly Token Usage (Nov 9–15, 2026)207.4T tokens (median) [1][2][3]
OpenRouter Monthly Token Usage Forecast (Nov 2026)Expected to exceed 950T tokens with 73% probability [4][5][6]
Open-weight Model Share (Vercel AI Gateway)Above 60.9% on Nov 6, 2026 [7]
The provided research does not contain sufficient information to assess the requested correlation. The available facts describe OpenRouter token usage and open-source model adoption trends [1][2][3][8][7][9][4][5][6], but do not offer data to establish a link between bearish sentiment in AI-related crypto tokens like WLD and FET in late 2026 and developer project deployments.
OpenRouter's weekly token usage shows stable but not strong growth. For the week of November 9–15, 2026, the Kalshi prediction market for OpenRouter token usage has a market median of 207.4T tokens, with a 56% probability of exceeding 207T tokens [1][2][3]. The prior week, November 2–8, 2026, resolved in the 207–210T token band, indicating stable but not strongly growing usage [8].
Monthly token usage and open-source model adoption indicate strong growth. OpenRouter AI token usage for the full month of November 2026 is expected to exceed 950T tokens with 73% probability, suggesting overall monthly usage is on track for strong growth despite the more modest weekly figures [4][5][6]. Regarding developer activity, open-weight model token share on Vercel AI Gateway resolved above 60.9% for November 6, 2026, and above 52.6% for November 1, 2026 [7][9]. This data demonstrates an upward trend in open-source model adoption among developers.
Sources (9)
  1. 1OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Token Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter) Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter) Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026 Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  8. 8OpenRouter token usage in Nov 2–8, 2026 Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  9. 9Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 6, 2026 Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

OpenRouter activity indicates rapid expansion in token consumption. The platform processed 29T tokens per day over the past week as of Nov 10, 2026, representing 34x growth year-over-year [1]. October 2026 recorded 790T tokens, an increase of 37% from September and 25x from January 2026, driven by broad-based growth including V4.1 Flash and Haiku 5.5 introductions [2]. Kalshi's market for Nov 9–15, 2026 shows 'Above 207T tokens' at 56% probability, with total event volume of $12,875.12 [3][4][5]. Chinese AI models lead OpenRouter usage, supplying 68% of tokens, with DeepSeek V4.1 Flash contributing 73.0T weekly tokens [1][6][7][8].
Model releases and advancements are recalibrating market expectations for AI capabilities. Google's Gemini holds 75% probability for 'best AI at end of November' and 90% for best AI this week [9]. OpenAI's GPT Astra 6.1 release is expected around Nov 12-14, 2026, with a 99% probability by Dec 31, and GPT Sol 6.2 around Nov 15, 2026, with 98% probability by Nov 15 [9][10][11]. These frontier releases correspond with a sharp upward repricing in benchmark and AGI markets; the probability for 'Any LLM scoring at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31' tripled from 17% to 49%, and 'any company announcing AGI before Oct 1, 2027' quadrupled from 10% to 34% [9].
Corporate events and regulatory developments present additional market catalysts. Anthropic's IPO window narrowed significantly after announcing a price range of $70-$78 per share, implying a $1.404 trillion valuation [9]. Kalshi markets price a 97% probability of filing before Dec 1, 2026 [9]. Anthropic's revenue scaled from $4.6B in 2025 to almost $17B per quarter in Q3 2026, an increase of 1,127% year-over-year [12]. Nvidia's next earnings call, scheduled for later in November 2026, carries a 71% probability of beating consensus revenue estimates [13]. Concurrently, the likelihood of Congress passing a comprehensive AI regulation bill before the end of 2026 rose from 18% to 29% following the release of draft legislation by a bipartisan working group [13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 23, 2026
  • Closes: November 16, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1OpenRouter tokens and spend tracker · 06.ai06.ai
  2. 2Tokens rose 37% in October | OpenRouteropenrouter.ai
  3. 3OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  4. 4OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  5. 5token usage (KXTOKENUSE): Kalshi odds history, order book & trades · TickFoundrytickfoundry.com
  6. 6Chinese LLMs Lead Global Token Usage, DeepSeek-V4-Flash Surges | tech360tvtech360.tv
  7. 7OpenRouterの利用量が1年で20倍超　今も加速する「AI共通API」について私たちが知るべきこと：Deep Insider Brief ― 技術の“今”にひと言コメント - ＠ITatmarkit.itmedia.co.jp
  8. 8Most-Used LLMs This Week — Real Usage × Price | LLMCost | LLMCostllm-cost.io
  9. 9AI Market Intelligence Daily - November 10, 2026 | AI PE Playbookaipeplaybook.com
  10. 10When The Model Drops — AI release-date forecasts from prediction marketswhenthemodeldrop.com
  11. 11AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecastsmatthewlloyd.github.io
  12. 12The week ahead: Midterms and AI marketsnews.kalshi.com
  13. 13AI and Tech Prediction Markets: What Traders Think Will Happen Next (November 2026) – PredictWirepredictwire.io

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTOKENUSE-26NOV09-T230: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXTOKENUSE-26NOV09-T228: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXTOKENUSE-26NOV09-T226: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXTOKENUSE-26NOV09-T224: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXTOKENUSE-26NOV09-T223: NO (Nov 09, 2026)