Brown vs New Haven
Short Answer
Brown is expected to win against New Haven on September 19, 2026, based on institutional schedules, though numerous reports contradict this by claiming no official collegiate football schedule exists for the matchup; the market prices a Brown victory at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No specific development coincides with the 16.0 percentage point price spike on September 19. The provided research material explicitly states there is "no verifiable evidence" of this market activity. This contradicts the listed price data and the reported volume of 7,027 contracts traded on that day. The context further claims that official schedules do not confirm the matchup, which is inconsistent with other information scheduling the game for September 19 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium.
Similarly, the 16.0 percentage point drop on September 10 is described as lacking a factual basis. The rationale provided is that the game's scheduled date is September 19, not September 10, and no corresponding market-moving information was found. The market's overall trajectory has been sideways, trading within a range of 62.0% to 98.0%.
- Brown's 99% probability reflects institutional claims for a September 19, 2026 game.
- However, widespread facts explicitly state no official schedule exists for this matchup.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | 99.0% | 98.8% | Numerous bound facts explicitly state no official collegiate football schedule exists for this matchup. |
| New Haven | 1.0% | 1.2% | New Haven benefits from home-field advantage and showed better rushing efficiency in the 2025 season. |
Current Context
Prediction markets, including those on platforms such as Kalshi, have established markets for a prospective football game between Brown University and the University of New Haven [1]. These markets operate on the premise that the teams are scheduled for their first-ever encounter on Saturday, September 19, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. EDT. Details accompanying this reported matchup indicate it would take place at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in West Haven, Connecticut [2] and be available on NESN+ and streamed via NEC Front Row [2][3].
Brown competes in the Ivy League, where Opta Analyst projected them 5th with 4.9 wins in their preseason rankings [4]. Reports related to the prospective game suggest it would serve as the 2026 season opener for the Brown Bears; the team has won its last four consecutive season openers [2]. The University of New Haven transitioned to the Division I FCS level in 2025. New Haven is a member of the Northeast Conference (NEC) within the FCS; Opta Analyst projected them 8th in the NEC with 3.0 wins [4][5]. In the context of the reported matchup, New Haven's record for the 2026 season was cited as 1-2 [2].
Sources (5)
- 1September 19, 2026: Brown vs New Haven Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Football Set to Kick off 2026 Season at New Haven this Weekend - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 3University of New Haven Football vs Brown University - University of New Haven Events Calendarevents.newhaven.edu
- 4Ivy League Football Predictions: This Time, Harvard, Yale Want the Title Outright | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 5NEC Football Predictions: CCSU, Duquesne the Teams to Beat; LIU Knocking at the Door | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: New Haven
📉 September 19, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 5.0%
What happened: Research indicates there is no verifiable evidence of an 18.0 percentage point price drop in a prediction market for a "Brown vs New Haven" football game on September 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Official schedules and reports do not confirm a college football matchup between Brown University and the University of New Haven on that date [5][6][7][8][9]. Without evidence of the described market movement or the game itself, it is impossible to identify a primary driver for the alleged price change. Therefore, social media activity is irrelevant to this unsubstantiated claim.
📉 September 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 32.0%
What happened: No identifiable primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "New Haven" outcome on September 15, 2026, can be found in the provided research. There was no specific social media activity, traditional news, or official announcements on that date indicating a negative development for New Haven [10][11][12]. Brown's official communications around that time were positive season previews, with no reports of injuries or disciplinary issues [13][14]. Furthermore, the reported 9.0 percentage point drop cannot be independently verified by the available market data snapshots [15][16][17]. Social media was irrelevant as no pertinent activity was found.
📈 September 12, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 35.0%
What happened: The requested prediction market movement on "Brown vs New Haven" for September 12, 2026, appears to be based on an erroneous premise. Brown University and the University of New Haven are scheduled to play on September 19, 2026, not September 12 [13][10][18]. On September 12, 2026, the University of New Haven played South Dakota State, and Brown University did not have a game against New Haven listed on its schedule [19][20][21]. Therefore, no social media activity, news, or market structure factor could have driven a price spike for a non-existent matchup on that specific date. Social media activity is irrelevant to this query given the lack of a real-world event corresponding to the market's date.
📉 September 09, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 16.0%
What happened: Research indicates there was no scheduled football game between Brown and New Haven on September 9, 2026; the contest was set for September 19, 2026 [13][22][23]. Furthermore, available prediction market data for "Brown vs New Haven" showed a 1.5 percentage-point decline, not a 27.0 percentage-point drop [24]. Searches found no reliable news, announcements, or social media activity on September 9, 2026, that would cause such a significant movement for this market [2][25]. Given these discrepancies, social media was irrelevant as the described market movement appears to be based on an incorrect premise.
Outcome: Brown
📉 September 10, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 88.0% to 72.0%
What happened: Research indicates that the described 16.0 percentage point drop in the "Brown vs New Haven" prediction market on September 10, 2026, lacks factual grounding. The Brown vs. New Haven football game is scheduled for September 19, 2026, not September 10, 2026 [13]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors were found to have caused a price movement of this nature on September 10, 2026 [2]. Consequently, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as the premise for the market movement appears to be factually incorrect.
Sources (25)
- 1Brown vs. New Haven (Sep 19, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
- 2Brown vs New Haven FCS Football Game Summary - September 19, 2026 | NCAA.comncaa.com
- 3Brown Bears vs New Haven Chargers - Game Center - 9/19/2026 | MSN Sportsmsn.com
- 42026 Brown Bears football teamen.wikipedia.org
- 5New Hampshire Wild Cats vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 6Villanova Wildcats vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 7Boston College Eagles vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 8Brown vs New Hampshire scores & predictions | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 9Brown Bears vs Harvard Crimson live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 102026 FOOTBALL GAME NOTESbrownbears.com
- 112026 Brown FB Game Notes-New Haven - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 12Brown Bears Football (@BrownU_Football) | tweetlook.comtweetlook.com
- 13Football Set to Kick off 2026 Season at New Haven this Weekend - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 142026 Football Season Preview - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 15Brown vs. New Haven | Paritypredictparity.com
- 16Brown Bears vs New Haven Chargers — Sep 19, 2026highlights.mainmarket.com
- 17Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 182026 Football Schedule - University of New Haven Athleticsnewhavenchargers.com
- 19South Dakota State vs New Haven Chargers live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 20FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard (Week 2) | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 21Brown Bears score, schedule & roster | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 222026 Football Schedule - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 23Brown football opens season at New Haven on September 19, 2026providencejournal.com
- 24Trader | Paritypredictparity.com
- 25‘Brown 4 Israel’ protest plane causes distraction at Paxson’s final Opening Convocation - The Brown Daily Heraldlegacy.browndailyherald.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'YES' contract resolves if its specific predicted outcome occurs, such as Brown winning the game, Brown winning by over 35.5 points, or the total score exceeding 29.5 points. Conversely, a 'NO' contract resolves if the predicted outcome does not occur (e.g., Brown loses, or the score difference/total points are at or below the specified threshold). The market is currently live with a noted 'Max payout' date of September 21, 2026, but no other specific settlement deadlines or special conditions are explicitly detailed.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| New Haven | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets for a "Brown vs New Haven" football game on September 19, 2026, consistently favored Brown at approximately 77–79% against New Haven's 21–23% [1][2][3]. The market was thinly traded and lacked extensive social media commentary explaining the pricing [1][2][4]. However, publicly available evidence indicates there is no scheduled football game between Brown University and the University of New Haven for the 2026 season, and as of September 19, 2026, no related prediction market or social media discussion was found [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Brown vs. New Haven | Paritypredictparity.com
- 2Who will win in the upcoming football event Brown vs New Haven scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 3Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 4Brown Bears Football (@BrownU_Football) | tweetlook.comtweetlook.com
- 5NEC Football Predictions: CCSU, Duquesne the Teams to Beat; LIU Knocking at the Door | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 6Brown Bears (Brown University) - Schedule 26/27 | Transfermarkttransfermarkt.com
- 7New Hampshire Wild Cats vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 8FCS Football Week 2 Preview & Predictions: Upset Possibilities, Strong Schedule Await | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 9Villanova Wildcats vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 10Boston College Eagles vs New Haven Chargers live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
5. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score85Strong
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How do Brown and New Haven's offensive and defensive statistics from the 2025 season compare head-to-head?
| 2025 Overall Record | Both teams finished 5-5 (Brown [1][2], New Haven [1][2]) |
|---|---|
| New Haven 2025 Rushing Offense | 139.3 yards per game at 5.0 yards per attempt [1][2] |
| Brown 2025 Passing Offense | 283.6 yards per game [1][2] |
New Haven's offense slightly outpaced Brown's in total yards, despite similar 5-5 overall records for both teams in the 2025 season [1][2]. New Haven averaged 382.8 total yards per game compared to Brown's 373.5 [1][2]. New Haven demonstrated greater efficiency and explosiveness in its rushing game, accumulating 139.3 yards per game at 5.0 yards per attempt, significantly outperforming Brown's 89.9 rushing yards per game at 2.8 yards per attempt [1][2]. Conversely, Brown's offense was more reliant on its passing game, averaging 283.6 passing yards per game, which was 40.2 yards more than New Haven's 243.4 [1][2]. While Brown completed more passes, New Haven maintained a superior touchdown-to-interception ratio (24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) compared to Brown (19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) [1][2]. Brown also recorded more overall first downs (204) and passing first downs (123) than New Haven (192 total, 102 passing) [1][2].
New Haven's defense allowed fewer total yards per game than Brown in 2025. New Haven conceded 382.8 total yards per game, while Brown allowed 401.1 [1][2]. Brown's run defense was marginally better, giving up 1,637 yards at 4.3 yards per attempt and 17 rushing touchdowns, compared to New Haven's 1,685 yards at 4.4 yards per attempt and 22 rushing touchdowns [1][2]. However, New Haven's pass defense was stronger by yardage, allowing 214.3 yards per game versus Brown's 237.4, and also allowed fewer touchdowns (15 versus 19) [1][2]. Despite allowing more total defensive yardage, Brown's defense allowed fewer points per game (27.0 versus 28.6) and ranked second in the Ivy League with 21 sacks [1][2][3]. The 2025 season highlighted a stylistic contrast, with Brown favoring a high-volume passing offense and New Haven excelling in efficient rushing and pass defense [1][2][3]. Brown played in the Ivy League (FCS), while New Haven transitioned to its inaugural NCAA Division I (FCS) season in 2025 [4][5]. Official records from Sofascore do not list a head-to-head matchup between Brown and New Haven in the 2025 season [6][7]. These statistics alone are insufficient for a reliable 2026 prediction [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
- 1Football Cumulative Statisticsbrownbears.com
- 22025 Football Cumulative Statistics - University of New Haven Athleticsnewhavenchargers.com
- 3Phil DeCapito - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 4Ivy League Football Predictions: Who's Going to Be the First Playoff Team? | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 5NEC Football Predictions: Defending Champs CCSU, Duquesne Lead the Way Again | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 6Mercyhurst Lakers vs New Haven Chargers live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 7Brown Bears vs Dartmouth Big Green live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
7. What factors support Brown's status as the favorite, given their four-year winning streak in season openers?
| Brown Win Probability | 77-79% (September 19, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| New Haven Projected Win Avg. | 3.0 wins [3][4] |
| Prediction Market Platforms | Predict.fun, Robinhood (Kalshi), Parity [1][5][2] |
Prediction markets anticipate Brown will win a hypothetical college football game against New Haven referenced for September 19, 2026. These markets place Brown's win probability at approximately 77-79% [1][2]. This positive outlook for Brown is significantly bolstered by its strong offensive capabilities, featuring key players such as Quarterback James Murphy and Running Back Matt Childs [3][4].
Despite active market trading, the game's scheduling and Brown's streak lack confirmation in the research. Conversely, New Haven is currently in its second season within the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) and has a projected average of 3.0 wins [3][4]. While prediction markets on platforms such as Predict.fun, Robinhood (Kalshi), and Parity are actively trading for this specific game on September 19, 2026 [1][5][2], it is important to note that there is no confirmed evidence that a game between Brown University and the University of New Haven is actually scheduled for this date [3][4]. Furthermore, the research did not find information regarding Brown's reported four-year winning streak in season openers [1][2][5][3][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 2New Haven wins by over 1.5 points | Paritypredictparity.com
- 3NEC Football Predictions: CCSU, Duquesne the Teams to Beat; LIU Knocking at the Door | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 4Ivy League Football Predictions: This Time, Harvard, Yale Want the Title Outright | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 5September 19, 2026: Brown vs New Haven Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
8. Which key player injuries for either the Brown Bears or New Haven Chargers could most significantly alter the outcome on September 19?
| Game Status | No scheduled American football game on September 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Team Divisions | Brown University is NCAA Division I FCS, New Haven is NCAA Division II [6][7][8][9][10] |
| Injury Reports | No official injury reports available for this specific event [11][12][13] |
No official American football game is scheduled between these teams. Official records do not list an American football game between the Brown Bears (Brown University) and the New Haven Chargers (University of New Haven) on September 19, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Therefore, any prediction markets referencing this specific matchup are likely speculative or based on a misunderstanding of the collegiate football schedule [11][12][13].
No injury reports exist for this non-existent event. As a direct result of the absence of a scheduled game, no official injury reports or key player status updates are available for either team concerning this date [11][12][13]. The lack of a scheduled game aligns with Brown University being an NCAA Division I FCS institution and the University of New Haven being an NCAA Division II institution; official athletic directories do not list a football game between these programs for 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]. Confusion may stem from a men's soccer match scheduled for September 19, 2026, involving the Brown Bears against the NJIT Highlanders, which is not an American football game [5].
Sources (13)
- 1New Haven Chargers score, schedule & roster | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 2Brown Bears score, schedule & roster | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 3South Dakota State vs New Haven Chargers live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 4Brown Bears vs Harvard Crimson live score & H2H | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 5Brown Bears vs NJIT Highlanders live score, H2H and lineups | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 6Men's Soccer Hosts Providence College in Ocean State Soccer Classic Championship Game - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 7Men's Soccer Scores Late in Loss to Sacred Heart - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 8Phil DeCapito - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 9Andrew DiRienzo - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 10Laura Cooke - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 11Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 12September 19, 2026: Brown vs New Haven Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 13New Haven wins by over 1.5 points | Paritypredictparity.com
9. How do 2026 preseason projections contrast the overall strength of the Ivy League versus the Northeast Conference (NEC)?
| Ivy League FCS Conference Ranking | 4th strongest [1] |
|---|---|
| Northeast Conference FCS Ranking | 11th strongest [1] |
| Ivy League Overall Conference Rating | +4.59 [1] |
The 2026 preseason TRACR model projects a significant strength disparity between the Ivy League and the Northeast Conference (NEC). The Ivy League is anticipated to be the 4th strongest FCS conference, while the NEC ranks considerably lower at 11th overall according to the model's projections [1].
The Ivy League demonstrates robust depth and a strong positive rating. All eight of its member institutions are ranked within the top 70 of the TRACR model, contributing to a positive overall conference rating of +4.59 [1]. In contrast, the NEC has a negative overall conference rating of -6.65 and has also experienced program defections [1].
10. How might New Haven's on-field performance in their first three 2026 games impact their matchup against a Brown team playing its season opener?
| Brown's Schedule | No game against New Haven on September 19, 2026; next game is against Harvard on September 25, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| New Haven's Schedule | 2026 schedule includes Merrimack and South Dakota State, but not Brown [1] |
| Prediction Market | A market for Brown vs. New Haven on September 19, 2026, exists with active trading [2][3][4] |
No official game is scheduled between Brown and New Haven for September 19, 2026. While prediction markets actively trade for a college football game between the two teams on this date, official schedules for both universities do not indicate that such a game is planned [1][2][3][4]. Brown's next scheduled game after September 19, 2026, is against Harvard on September 25, 2026. Similarly, New Haven's 2026 schedule lists games against Merrimack and South Dakota State, with no mention of a matchup against Brown [1].
Hypothetically, New Haven's prior games contrast Brown's season opener. Market data for the speculative matchup suggests New Haven would have already played games leading up to this point, whereas Brown would be commencing its season [4]. This scenario implies New Haven would have existing on-field performance data from its first three games. Furthermore, Brown University's football staff has undergone recent changes in 2026, including the hiring of new assistant coaches, which could influence their preparation for the season [5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1New Haven Chargers score, schedule & roster | Sofascoresofascore.com
- 2Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 3September 19, 2026: Brown vs New Haven Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4New Haven wins by over 1.5 points | Paritypredictparity.com
- 5Phil DeCapito - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 6Andrew DiRienzo - Staff Directory - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The first-ever football game between Brown University and the University of New Haven is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in West Haven, Connecticut [1][2]. Brown will enter as the visiting team, kicking off its 141st season, while New Haven holds a 1-2 record, 0-1 in the NEC [1][2].
Prediction markets, including Parity, Kalshi, and Predict.fun, have listed the game [3][4][5][6]. Brown is favored by approximately 10 points, with market sentiment indicating a 77-79% probability of a Brown victory [3][4][5][6]. Secondary prediction markets also exist for game-specific outcomes, such as the total points scored, with an over/under of 57.5 points [7].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 21, 2026
- Closes: September 21, 2026
Sources (10)
- 1Football Set to Kick off 2026 Season at New Haven this Weekend - Brown University Athleticsbrownbears.com
- 22026 FOOTBALL GAME NOTESbrownbears.com
- 3Brown vs. New Haven | Paritypredictparity.com
- 4September 19, 2026: Brown vs New Haven Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5Brown vs. New Havenpredict.fun
- 6Brown Bears vs New Haven Chargers — Sep 19, 2026highlights.mainmarket.com
- 7Will the total in Brown vs. New Haven be more than 57.5? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 8Ivy League Football Predictions: This Time, Harvard, Yale Want the Title Outright | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 9NEC Football Predictions: CCSU, Duquesne the Teams to Beat; LIU Knocking at the Door | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
- 10What Are the FCS Conference Realignment Changes in 2026? | Opta Analysttheanalyst.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06WCUCAMP-WCU: NO (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP06WCUCAMP-CAMP: YES (Sep 06, 2026)
- KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP19TULNKSU-TULN: NO (Sep 19, 2026)
- KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP19TULNKSU-KSU: YES (Sep 19, 2026)
- KXNCAAFGAME-26SEP19VILLLIU-VILL: YES (Sep 19, 2026)
