Memphis vs South Florida

Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) hosts South Florida (6-3, 2-3 American) with differing offensive and defensive strengths. The game is scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, airing on ESPN ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}. Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes has 2,532 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and a 173.6 passer rating, ranking 9th nationally ^{[2][7][8][9][10]}. Running back Jaylin Carter adds 929 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns ^{[2][7][8][9][10]}. Memphis ranks 5th in total offense (513.3 yards per game) and 15th in scoring offense (37.6 points per game) ^{[2][7][8][9][10]}. Conversely, South Florida's defense ranks 10th in FBS scoring defense (15.1 points allowed per game) and 25th in total defense (312.7 yards allowed per game) ^{[2][7][8][9][10]}. USF is the sole FBS team that has not thrown an interception this season ^{[2][7][8][9][10]}. However, its offense ranks 126th in passing yards and 123rd in total offense, with head coach Brian Hartline noting a 'consistent issue' with execution ^[8][10]. Quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. missed the November 6 loss with an undisclosed injury, and running back D.J. Crowther also exited early; Hartline has not confirmed their availability, leaving Luke Kromenhoek and Jason Collins Jr. as potential starters ^[7][8][10].

Prediction markets and experts lean Memphis, with historical data supporting this perspective. The Kalshi prediction market assigns Memphis a 62% win probability, with a spread around 3.5 points and a total near 49.5 points ^[11]. Sportsbooks generally list Memphis as a -3.5 to -4 favorite, with totals ranging from 49.5 to 50.5 ^{[1][12][3][13][10]}. The opening AP line for Memphis at -6.5 has since moved to -4 or -5 ^{[1][12][3][13][10]}. Expert predictions are split but largely favor Memphis: SI.com picks Memphis -4 (-110) ^[1], FanDuel's numberFire projects a 71% win probability for Memphis ^[3], The Commercial Appeal predicts Memphis 28-USF 17 ^[7], Predictem forecasts Memphis 27-USF 20 ^[10], and Sports Chat Place anticipates a Memphis win by one or two touchdowns ^[9]. Yahoo Sports' Pete Fiutak is an outlier, picking USF 26-Memphis 23, citing USF's defense as a factor in a low-scoring game ^[4]. SportsGambler supports USF +3.5 at -105 ^[13]. Memphis has won five consecutive games and eight of the last nine meetings against USF, including a 34-31 comeback victory last season against a ranked USF squad ^[2][4].

Conference title implications heighten this critical mid-season matchup for Memphis. The American Conference title race is tight, with UTSA (4-0), North Texas (4-0), and Memphis (4-1) leading the standings ^{[4][14][15][16][17]}. The UTSA-North Texas game on November 14 makes the Memphis-USF outcome particularly significant for the Tigers' conference title path ^{[4][14][15][16][17]}. Polymarket traders see all three teams as top contenders ^[15]. USF is in its inaugural season under head coach Brian Hartline, who previously served as offensive coordinator at Ohio State ^{[8][10][18][19][17]}. The Bulls have never secured a conference title in program history ^[18]. Offensive coordinator Tim Beck has faced scrutiny, as the USF offense has exceeded 350 total yards in only two games this season ^[8][10][19]. Following this game, Memphis plays Navy on November 21 and Temple on the November 27-28 flex weekend ^{[4][20][5][21][6][18]}. USF's remaining schedule includes Florida Atlantic on November 21 and Tulane on the flex weekend ^{[4][20][5][21][6][18]}. The American Conference Championship Game is set for Saturday, December 5, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. ET ^{[4][20][5][21][6][18]}. This season marks USF's final year playing at Raymond James Stadium ^{[4][20][5][21][6][18]}.