Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Christiaan Bezuidenhout beating Campbell and Schenk (100% vs 49%), driven by his strong recent form and superior Strokes Gained metrics.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which appears to track Brian Campbell's chances, has shown a significant upward trend, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to its current level of 21.0%. The most notable price action was a sharp 20.0 percentage point spike on May 12, 2026. The price continued to a high of 23.0% before pulling back slightly. According to the provided context, there was no specific news catalyst identified that would explain this sudden and dramatic price increase. The move may represent an initial price correction as the market opened, moving from a low base to a level more in line with general sports betting odds for the golfers in this group.
The complete absence of trading volume, with zero contracts traded, is the most critical technical factor. This indicates that the observed price changes are not the result of trader activity or conviction. Instead, the price likely reflects automated adjustments or initial pricing parameters rather than a consensus formed through buying and selling. Consequently, it is not possible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels, as no price points have been tested by actual trading. The price range of 1.0% to 23.0% simply represents the pricing model's movement to date. While the upward trend would normally suggest a strong shift in positive sentiment, the lack of volume means there is no market conviction behind the current 21.0% price.
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout shows strong recent form and positive Strokes Gained: Putting.
  • Bezuidenhout also holds a significant head-to-head advantage over Schenk.
  • Adam Schenk's game appears suited for forecasted windy Round 1 conditions.
  • Schenk secured his first PGA Tour victory in 2025.
  • Conversely, Schenk exhibits significant 2026 inconsistency and negative Strokes Gained.

Current Context

Betting markets favor Bezuidenhout in this 3-ball group. This 1st Round 3-Ball group, featuring Brian Campbell, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Adam Schenk, is scheduled to tee off at 8:13 AM EDT on Thursday, May 14, 2026 [1][2]. Bezuidenhout is positioned as the most likely winner by betting markets, with odds typically around 11/10 (47% implied probability) [3][4][5]. Adam Schenk and Brian Campbell are generally listed at 13/5 (21-24% implied probability) and 5/2 (23% implied probability) respectively [3][4][5]. Over the past 12 months in tournament play, Bezuidenhout has maintained a significant 13-3 head-to-head advantage over Schenk [6].
Bezuidenhout has demonstrated consistent strong form and major championship ability. Christiaan Bezuidenhout's recent performance includes a T10 finish at the Baycurrent Classic and a T6 at the Sanderson Farms Championship [7]. He also achieved a T12 at the U.S. Open at Oakmont, where he notably gained strokes in ball striking, putting, and around the green [7]. In the 2026 campaign, Bezuidenhout has placed within the top-40 in five of his seven starts and was a runner-up at the 2025 American Express [8][7][9].
Adam Schenk's season has been inconsistent, and Campbell struggles with driving. Adam Schenk secured his inaugural PGA Tour victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship amidst challenging windy conditions, winning by one stroke [10]. However, his 2026 season has been mixed, marked by a T33 at the RBC Heritage, a T60 at the Cognizant Classic, and missed cuts at The American Express and Sony Open [10]. He has yet to record a top-20 finish across his first 12 starts this season [11]. Brian Campbell is identified as one of the shortest drivers within the field [11][12][6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1golfmonthly.com
  2. 2cupofnations2025.com
  3. 3oddschecker.com
  4. 4skybet.com
  5. 5kalshi.com
  6. 6sportinglife.com
  7. 7foxsports.com
  8. 8datagolf.com
  9. 9theopen.com
  10. 10foxsports.com
  11. 11foxsports.com
  12. 12datagolf.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 12, 2026: 46.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: Christiaan Bezuidenhout beats Campbell and Schenk

What happened: Based on the provided web research, no information was found regarding a 46.0 percentage point price spike or its cause in the "1st Round 3-Ball: Campbell/Bezuidenhout/Schenk" prediction market [1][2]. The referenced "news social media catalyst" was also not identified in the retrieved sources [1][2]. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the primary driver, including any social media activity, for the described price movement from the available information. Social media's role cannot be assessed given the lack of specific findings.
Sources (2)
  1. 13 Ball (Round 1) - Bezuidenhout / Schenk / Campbell - Sky Betskybet.com
  2. 2May 14, 2026: 1st Round 3-Ball: Campbell/Bezuidenhout/Schenk Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, the specific contract rules, triggers for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or special settlement conditions for the "1st Round 3-Ball: Campbell/Bezuidenhout/Schenk" market are not available. The page only displays the market title and a general platform maintenance announcement.

Market Discussion

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is strongly favored to win the 3-ball, with prediction markets giving him a 47% chance compared to Adam Schenk at 24% and Brian Campbell at 23%, a sentiment reflected in betting odds [1][2][3]. This favoritism is attributed to Bezuidenhout's superior all-around game and a 13-3 head-to-head advantage over Schenk in the last 12 months, along with more consistent recent form including a T6 and T17 finish in 2026 [4][5]. Adam Schenk's 2026 season has been less consistent despite a win in late 2025, while Brian Campbell has struggled for top-20 finishes in 2026 and is noted as one of the shortest drivers [4][6][7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1kalshi.com
  2. 2oddschecker.com
  3. 3skybet.com
  4. 4sportinglife.com
  5. 5datagolf.com
  6. 6foxsports.com
  7. 7owgr.com
  8. 8foxsports.com
  9. 9rotowire.com

5. What recent Strokes Gained data supports Christiaan Bezuidenhout's position as the market favorite over Adam Schenk and Brian Campbell?

C. Bezuidenhout Avg SG: Total (Valspar)+0.160 [1]
A. Schenk Avg SG: Total (PGA Champ)-0.980 [2]
B. Campbell Avg SG: Total (PGA Champ)-1.137 [3]
Christiaan Bezuidenhout shows strong recent Strokes Gained performance. In his past five starts for the 2026 Valspar Championship, he averaged a positive +0.160 Strokes Gained: Total, with particular strengths in Putting (+0.315) and Around-the-Green (+0.240) [1]. His betting profile for the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship further highlighted an average of +0.646 Strokes Gained: Total over his last five starts, including +0.412 in Putting and +0.150 in Approach [4]. Across broader 2026 PGA Tour statistics, Bezuidenhout maintains a positive total Strokes Gained average of 0.463 (ranked 43rd), with notable consistency around-the-green (0.299, ranked 26th) and in putting (0.496, ranked 18th) [5].
Adam Schenk consistently posted negative Strokes Gained totals lately. His betting profile for the 2026 PGA Championship reveals an average of -0.980 Strokes Gained: Total across his past five tournaments [2]. This negative performance was evident across all measured categories: Off-the-Tee (-0.382), Approach (-0.046), Around-the-Green (-0.450), and Putting (-0.102) [2].
Brian Campbell also recorded significant negative Strokes Gained figures. His last-five average for Strokes Gained: Total, according to his 2026 PGA Championship betting profile, was -1.137 [3]. Campbell's performance included substantial negatives in Off-the-Tee (-0.694), Approach (-0.340), and Around-the-Green (-0.075), alongside a slightly negative Putting figure of -0.028 [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Christiaan Bezuidenhout betting profile: Valspar Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  2. 2Adam Schenk betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  3. 3Brian Campbell betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  4. 4Christiaan Bezuidenhout betting profile: THE PLAYERS Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  5. 5Christiaan Bezuidenhout PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerbeta.pgatour.com

6. How do Bezuidenhout, Schenk, and Campbell compare on key performance metrics during the 2026 PGA Tour season?

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Total Earnings$12,913,050 [1]
Adam Schenk OWGR146 [2]
Brian Campbell SG: Total-1.686 [3]
Christiaan Bezuidenhout displayed strong performance across multiple key metrics. For the 2026 PGA TOUR season, he accumulated total earnings of $12,913,050 and made 132 cuts [1]. His Strokes Gained: Total ranked 51st, while he demonstrated particular strength in Strokes Gained: Putting (12th) and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (26th) [1].
Adam Schenk and Brian Campbell recorded notably weaker performance statistics. Adam Schenk's 2026 profile indicates zero wins and a ranking of 143rd on the PGA TOUR wins/earnings classification [2]. His Strokes Gained: Total was 124th, with his Strokes Gained: Putting at 69th, and an Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) of 146 [2]. Brian Campbell exhibited weaker overall performance metrics, with his 2026 PGA TOUR stats showing a Strokes Gained: Total of -1.686, placing him 161st. Additionally, his Official Money reached $361,460, ranking him 129th [3]. These figures highlight a significantly less competitive strokes-gained performance for Campbell in the recorded rankings [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Christiaan Bezuidenhout PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  2. 2Adam Schenk PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  3. 3Brian Campbell PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com

7. How might the early tee time and forecasted Thursday weather conditions affect each player's performance?

Adam Schenk PGA Tour Win Wind Speed30-40 mph gusts (2025 Butterfield Bermuda Championship) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Brian Campbell Driving Accuracy28th (2026) [9][10][11][12]
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Strokes Gained: Putting13th (2026) [13]
Early tee time on Thursday presents challenging, softened course conditions. The 8:13 a.m. ET tee time on Thursday, May 14th, at the Aronimink Golf Club is anticipated to feature a course softened by overnight showers and thunderstorms [3][4][5][14][15][13][11][1]. Conditions for Brian Campbell, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Adam Schenk will include cool temperatures, starting in the low to mid-50s Fahrenheit and rising to the mid-60s, a 20-35% chance of lingering rain, and significant winds from the northwest at 8-15 mph, with gusts potentially exceeding 20 mph [9][10][15][13][11][12][1][4][5].
Adam Schenk may thrive in wind, while Brian Campbell faces challenges. Adam Schenk's performance could be positively influenced by the strong winds, given his history of winning his first PGA Tour event, the 2025 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, in severe wind conditions with gusts reaching 30-40 mph [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. He is known for strong ball-striking and effective ball flight control in wind [2][6][14][4][5]. Conversely, Brian Campbell's relative lack of driving distance (164th-177th in 2026) and lower rankings in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (158th-168th) and Approach the Green (149th-163rd) might prove disadvantageous in the windy conditions, potentially leading to longer approach shots [9][10][11][12]. However, Campbell's strengths include accuracy off the tee (28th in driving accuracy in 2026), an excellent short iron game (1st on Tour from 100 yards and in), and solid putting (81st in SG: Putting, 29th in Putts Per Round in 2026) [9][10][11][12].
Christiaan Bezuidenhout's strong putting could be an advantage. His strong putting, evidenced by his 13th rank in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2026 and a streak of 455 holes without a three-putt during the 2022-23 season, may provide an advantage in these specific conditions [13]. The available research does not offer further details on how the early tee time, cool temperatures, wind, or soft course conditions might otherwise impact Bezuidenhout's overall game [15][13][11][1][9][10][15][13][11][12][1][4][5].
Sources (15)
  1. 1pgatour.com
  2. 2golf.com
  3. 3reddit.com
  4. 4evrimagaci.org
  5. 5youtube.com
  6. 6wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7pgatour.com
  8. 8golf.com
  9. 9pgatour.com
  10. 10golfwrx.com
  11. 11bernews.com
  12. 12youtube.com
  13. 13youtube.com
  14. 14datagolf.com
  15. 15golfmonthly.com

8. What is the historical performance and course history for all three golfers at Aronimink Golf Club?

Aronimink Golf Club Course DesignDonald Ross (1928) [1][2]
2026 PGA Championship Aronimink ParPar 70 [3][4][2]
Christiaan Bezuidenhout PGA Championship Best FinishT30 in 2021 [5]
Aronimink Golf Club has a long history and will host the 2026 PGA Championship. The club's history dates to 1896, with its current Donald Ross-designed course established at the present site on Memorial Day 1928 [6][1][2]. For the 2026 PGA Championship, the course will feature a par 70 layout spanning 7,394 yards, providing a specific context for evaluating player performance at this renowned venue [3][4][2].
Christiaan Bezuidenhout lacks specific Aronimink course history, despite PGA Championship participation. He has competed in six PGA Championship events, with his top performance being a T30 finish in 2021 [5]. However, the available research does not provide specific past-round scoring or detailed course history for Christiaan Bezuidenhout at Aronimink Golf Club [5].
Information on Campbell and Schenk's Aronimink performance is currently unavailable. The provided research does not contain any details regarding the historical performance or specific course history at Aronimink Golf Club for golfers Campbell or Schenk.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Aronimink Golf Cluben.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Nine things to know: Aronimink Golf Club, host of 2026 PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  3. 3A Hole-by-Hole Look at Aronimink Golf Club | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  4. 42026 PGA Championshipen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Christiaan Bezuidenhout | PGA Championshippgachampionship.com
  6. 6History - Aronimink Golf Clubaronimink.org

9. What is the investment case for Adam Schenk, given his recent victory contrasted with his overall 2026 season inconsistency?

First PGA Tour winButterfield Bermuda Championship (Nov. 16, 2025) [1][2]
Attempts for first PGA Tour win243rd attempt [1][2]
2026 PGA Tour Season PerformanceMultiple missed cuts (Sony Open, American Express, PLAYERS, Valspar) and negative aggregate Strokes Gained: Total [3][4][5]
Adam Schenk recently secured his first PGA Tour victory. On November 16, 2025, Schenk won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, marking his debut PGA Tour title in his 243rd attempt [1][2]. This significant achievement demonstrates his ability to perform at the sport's elite level, suggesting potential for strong near-term market placements.
However, Schenk's 2026 PGA Tour season has been inconsistent. By mid to late spring, he recorded multiple missed cuts at prominent events, including the Sony Open, American Express, THE PLAYERS Championship, and Valspar [3][4]. While he achieved some higher finishes, such as a T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T33 at the RBC Heritage, these were sporadic rather than indicative of sustained form [3][4].
Statistical analysis highlights Schenk's high-variance performance profile. An official PGA Tour betting profile from 2026 indicates his aggregate "Strokes Gained: Total" is negative [5]. Furthermore, he holds low TOUR rankings in critical areas like around-the-green play and putting [5]. This pattern suggests Schenk is best considered a high-variance bet rather than a consistent contender in precision golf markets, a factor expected to influence perceptions of his Round 1 pairing at the 2026 PGA Championship [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Adam Schenk survives raging wind in Bermuda to win first PGA TOUR title in 243rd attemptpgatour.com
  2. 2Adam Schenken.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Adam Schenk PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  4. 4Adam Schenk, PGA - 2026 Tournament Results - CBS Sportscbssports.com
  5. 5Adam Schenk betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com
  6. 62026 PGA Championship: Full tee times, featured groups for Rounds 1-2 - PGA TOURpgatour.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key bullish catalysts include Christiaan Bezuidenhout's significant putting edge [1], where he records a Strokes Gained: Putting of +0.50, ranking 18th [1]. Bezuidenhout also has 3 top-10 finishes in 12 events in 2026 [1]. Additionally, Brian Campbell possesses a winner pedigree, having won two PGA events in 2025: the Mexico Open and the John Deere [2].
Conversely, bearish catalysts primarily center on Adam Schenk's current form. Schenk is experiencing a form slump [3] and has exhibited weak Strokes Gained statistics, especially in putting [4]. He has only made 5 out of 12 cuts in 2026 [3]. The inherent pressure of a major tournament further contributes to the bearish outlook for the players [2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 28, 2026
  • Closes: May 28, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1Christiaan Bezuidenhout PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  2. 2Brian Campbell PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  3. 3Adam Schenk PGA TOUR Player Profile, Stats, Bio, Careerpgatour.com
  4. 4Adam Schenk betting profile: PGA Championship - PGA TOURpgatour.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPGA3BALL-ONMBC26R1WWILTPHITCRO-WWIL: SCALAR (May 08, 2026)
  • KXPGA3BALL-ONMBC26R1WWILTPHITCRO-TPHI: SCALAR (May 08, 2026)
  • KXPGA3BALL-ONMBC26R1WWILTPHITCRO-TCRO: SCALAR (May 08, 2026)
  • KXPGA3BALL-ONMBC26R1RRUFDCHAJSUB-RRUF: YES (May 07, 2026)
  • KXPGA3BALL-ONMBC26R1RRUFDCHAJSUB-JSUB: NO (May 07, 2026)