Minnesota vs Toronto
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Minnesota wins is favored due to a 13-3-4 record and league-best defense.
- Jesper Wallstedt's elite goaltending and nine-game point streak support Minnesota's position.
- Toronto's four-game losing streak and 25th rank in goals against pose challenges.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 62.0% | 68.6% | Minnesota leads the league with a 2.20 goals against average and is on a nine-game point streak. |
| Toronto | 39.0% | 31.4% | Toronto is on a four-game losing streak and ranks 25th in goals against per game. |
Current Context
Sources (15)
- 1Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs - Nov 12, 2026 | NHL.comnhl.com
- 2Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds and Team Newssquawka.com
- 3Maple Leafs look to snap four-game skid against surging Wild - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 4Minnesota Wild vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Live Updates, Score, and Play-by-play - November 12, 2026 - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 5Kaprizov and Wild Aim to Extend Streak Against Reeling Leafspuckbeat.com
- 6Wild vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds - ScoresAndStats.comscoresandstats.com
- 7Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks — Nov 12, 2026 | Puckwiredpuckwired.com
- 8Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction (Nov 12): Wild 60% — Odds & Live Scoreaccuscore.com
- 9Wild vs Maple Leafs NHL Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Nov. 12 | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 10Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks, Prop Bets For November 12, 2026 - NHLcovers.com
- 11Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 12)picksmammoth.com
- 12Wild Could Send Maple Leafs In Downward Spiral - Wilderness Walk - Hockey Wildernesshockeywilderness.com
- 13‘That’ll Be Disappointing’ — Insider Names 3 Teams Who Were Praying On Maple Leafs’ Downfall To Land Auston Matthews - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
- 14NHL Insider Drops Big Update on Auston Matthews’ Future with Toronto Maple Leafs - Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com
- 15NHL Trade Rumors: Pierre LeBrun on Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly, and Maple Leafs' Offseason Plans (2026)corporatequest.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 November 06, 2026: 32.0pp spike
Price increased from 6.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Toronto
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'YES' resolution occurs if the MIN Wild wins their NHL game against the TOR Maple Leafs. Conversely, a 'NO' resolution occurs if the MIN Wild does not win the game. The game is scheduled to begin on November 12 at 7:00 PM EST, with a maximum payout date listed as November 14, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are provided in the content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Toronto | $0.39 | $0.62 | 39% |
Market Discussion
The Minnesota Wild are favored against the Toronto Maple Leafs for their November 12, 2026 game, with implied probabilities for a Wild win ranging from 60% on OmenX to 65.8% according to FanDuel Research, while Polymarket shows the Wild at 62% [1][2][3]. Prediction markets for hockey are characterized by high variance, with the best NHL teams winning roughly 60% of games, making small probability edges significant over a full season for traders [4].
5. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How does Jesper Wallstedt's breakout season compare statistically to the performance of Toronto's goaltending duo, Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz?
| Jesper Wallstedt Save Percentage | .925 (2025-26 season) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt Goals-Against Average | 1.93 (2025-26 season) [1][2][3] |
| Save Percentage Difference | Wallstedt's.925 is 44 points higher than Bobrovsky's and Stolarz's.881 [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction 11/12/2026 Today's NHL Picks - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
- 2Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Thursday, November 12, 2026winnersandwhiners.com
- 3Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Jan 2026sportsgambler.com
- 4The Week Ahead: Oilers Clash 5 Times in Condensed NHL Schedule | RotoWirerotowire.com
7. What key performance indicators and betting market data underpin the Minnesota Wild's position as the consensus favorite for the November 12 matchup?
| Minnesota Win Probability | 57% (Kalshi) / 64% (Covers.com) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Season Record | 13-3-4 (30 points) [3] |
| Toronto Losing Streak | 4 games [3][4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Kalshi NHL Odds: 47 Open Games | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
- 2NHL Picks - Minnesota vs Toronto Consensus | 11/12/2026contests.covers.com
- 3Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction 11/12/2026 Today's NHL Picks - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
- 4Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions for Thursday, November 12, 2026winnersandwhiners.com
- 5Minnesota vs Toronto: Spread - Compare Kalshi vs Gemini Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How will the key injuries to Minnesota's Filip Gustavsson and Brock Faber impact their strategy against a Toronto team that may see the return of Morgan Rielly?
| Minnesota Starting Goalie GAA | 1.93 GAA (Jesper Wallstedt) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Goals Allowed Per Game | 2.20 goals per game [1][2] |
| Toronto Recent Record | 1-6 in last 7 games [1][2] |
9. What do historical head-to-head results between the Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs over recent seasons indicate about typical game scripts and goal totals?
| Early Scoring Trend | Over 1.5 Goals Period 1 hit in last 6 games [1] |
|---|---|
| Wild Recent H2H Points Percentage | 65.0% of possible points in last 10 meetings [2] |
| Wild Recent H2H Goal Differential | Scored 3.4 goals per game, allowed 2.5 goals per game in last 10 meetings [2] |
Sources (7)
- 1Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction 1/19/2026 Today's NHL Picks - Pick Dawgzpickdawgz.com
- 2Minnesota Wild vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds, tips and betting trendssportsbookwire.usatoday.com
- 3Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Jan 2026sportsgambler.com
- 4Minnesota Vs Toronto Record | StatMusestatmuse.com
- 5Minnesota - Toronto 16.03.2026, NHL / USA | HockeyLive.nethockeylive.net
- 6Minnesota – Toronto 2:4, 15. 3. 2026 · Detail zápasu – NHL.sknhl.sk
- 7Minnesota – Toronto 2:1, 3. 11. 2024 · Detail zápasu – NHL.sknhl.sk
10. What underlying metrics explain the Toronto Maple Leafs' four-game losing streak and their ranking as 25th in goals against per game?
| Losing Streak | 4 games [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Goals Against Rank | 25th in goals against per game [1][2] |
| Goal Differential during streak | Scored 7, allowed 17 during 4-game streak [1] |
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 15, 2026
- Closes: November 15, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1MIN vs TOR Prediction & Odds — NHL Nov 12 | EdgeGoatedgegoat.com
- 2Wild vs Maple Leafs NHL Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Nov. 12 | FanDuel Researchfanduel.com
- 3Wild vs Maple Leafs Odds & Betting Lines For November 12, 2026 - NHLcovers.com
- 4NHL Tonight: Game previews, stats, betting info for Thursday - ESPNespn.com.sg
- 5NHL Game Odds with Spread, Moneyline, and More - ESPNespn.com
- 6Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks — Nov 12, 2026 | Puckwiredpuckwired.com
- 7Wild vs Maple Leafs Prediction & Odds, Nov 12 — AccuScoreaccuscore.com
- 8Kaprizov and Wild Aim to Extend Streak Against Reeling Leafspuckbeat.com
- 9Maple Leafs look to snap four-game skid against surging Wild - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 10Minnesota Wild - Toronto Maple Leafs - Nov 12, 2026 | NHL.comnhl.com
- 11Toronto Maple Leafs Depth Chart 2026-27 - CBS Sportssportsfly.cbsistatic.com
- 12Injury Reports | Fantasy Hockey | Yahoo! Sportshockey.fantasysports.yahoo.com
- 132026-27 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.comhockey-reference.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNHLGAME-26NOV11NSHANA-NSH: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXNHLGAME-26NOV11NSHANA-ANA: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXNHLGAME-26NOV11UTAVGK-VGK: YES (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXNHLGAME-26NOV11UTAVGK-UTA: NO (Nov 12, 2026)
- KXNHLGAME-26NOV11PITSJ-SJ: NO (Nov 12, 2026)