Short Answer

The model sees Stan Wawrinka winning 2-1 as the most likely outcome for the match, assigning significantly higher odds at 88.0% compared to the market's 21.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which tracks the probability of Alejandro Tabilo winning his match against Stan Wawrinka by a 2-0 score, has seen a sharp upward trend since its inception. The price began at a low of 1.0% on May 15 before experiencing a significant spike on May 16. On that day, the price surged to a high of 38.0% before settling at its current level of 21.0%. The provided context indicates this price movement occurred before the match has been played and does not offer a specific catalyst, such as news or social media activity, to explain the dramatic increase.
The most critical feature of this market is the total traded volume, which stands at zero contracts. This lack of volume indicates that the observed price changes are not the result of trades between participants but rather likely reflect adjustments by the market's creator or automated market maker. Without any trading activity, it is not possible to establish meaningful support or resistance levels, as the current price points have not been tested by actual buying or selling pressure. The price history simply reflects the evolution of the listed offer price, not a consensus formed through transactions.
Given the complete absence of trading volume, the chart does not reflect genuine market sentiment or conviction from traders. The current 21.0% price represents a theoretical probability for the outcome, but it is not supported by any invested capital. The upward trend, while visually apparent, is a reflection of price listings changing, not a shift in belief demonstrated through market participation.
  • Alejandro Tabilo holds a strong 12–6 clay court record in the 2026 season.
  • Tabilo displays superior service and return metrics on clay courts.
  • Stan Wawrinka has a 0–2 clay record and recent back pain concerns.
  • Wawrinka withdrew from the Rome Open qualifiers due to back pain.
  • Wawrinka's only previous meeting with Tabilo went to three sets.
  • Wawrinka also boasts a strong historical 10-3 record at the Geneva Open.

Current Context

The ATP Geneva Open match between Tabilo and Wawrinka has not yet occurred. This first-round match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka is currently pending [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Although some prediction markets and event listings reference May 16, 2026, for this fixture, other sources suggest the match is anticipated for May 17, 2026 [1][5].
Tabilo and Wawrinka have met only once previously. Their sole head-to-head encounter took place at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters [7][8][9][6]. In that match, Alejandro Tabilo emerged victorious over Stan Wawrinka with a final score of 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [7][8][9][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score - Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction - Switzerlandeuropesays.com
  3. 3Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèvelfm.ch
  4. 4Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèveradiolac.ch
  5. 5Tabilo vs Wawrinka Match on 17 May 2026 - Scores24scores24.live
  6. 6Stan Wawrinka (ATP 125) a hérité d'un adversaire difficile à manoeuvrer pour son entrée en lice au Geneva Open. Le Vaudois affrontera Alejandro Tabilo (35) au 1er tourrts.ch
  7. 7H2H Stan Wawrinka Vs Alejandro Tabilo stats, prediction, head to head, and drawtennistonic.com
  8. 8Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Head-to-Head Record & Stats | TennisDBtennis-db.com
  9. 9Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka H2H - Tennis Head to Head, Matches, Statsstats.tennismylife.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 16, 2026: 21.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 21.0%

Outcome: Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0

What happened: The 21.0 percentage point price spike for "Alejandro Tabilo wins 2-0" occurred for a match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka that is scheduled for May 16, 2026, and has not yet taken place [1][2][3]. The provided web research contains no information regarding social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain this specific predictive price movement. Without additional context or data from the period leading up to the spike, the primary driver for this particular market increase cannot be definitively identified. Consequently, the role of social media as a driver or accelerant in this specific price movement remains undeterminable from the available sources.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèveradiolac.ch
  2. 2Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèvelfm.ch
  3. 3Stan Wawrinka (ATP 125) a hérité d'un adversaire difficile à manoeuvrer pour son entrée en lice au Geneva Open. Le Vaudois affrontera Alejandro Tabilo (35) au 1er tourrts.ch

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Alejandro Tabilo wins his ATP Geneva Round Of 32 match against Stan Wawrinka by a set score of 2-0, and "No" if any other outcome occurs. The market opened on May 15, 2026, and will close after the match outcome, or by May 30, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing. Special settlement conditions apply: if the match is cancelled before play begins, it resolves to a fair price; if postponed, it remains open for up to two weeks; and if a player retires, settlement depends on what can be unconditionally determined, otherwise it's Fair Market Price.

Market Discussion

Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka are scheduled to face each other in the first round of the 2026 Gonet Geneva Open as of May 16, 2026 [1][2]. Their only prior professional head-to-head meeting occurred at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, where Tabilo won 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [3][4][5]. Ahead of their 2026 Geneva Open match, Tabilo is reportedly favored by betting markets at $1.36 compared to Wawrinka's $3.20 [6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèvelfm.ch
  2. 2Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèveradiolac.ch
  3. 3Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Head-to-Head Record & Stats | TennisDBtennis-db.com
  4. 4Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka H2H - Tennis Head to Head, Matches, Statsstats.tennismylife.org
  5. 5Alejandro Tabilo downs Stan Wawrinka in Monte-Carlo | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  6. 6Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction - Switzerlandeuropesays.com

5. How do Alejandro Tabilo's and Stan Wawrinka's 2026 season performances on clay courts compare?

Alejandro Tabilo 2026 Clay Court Win Rate66.7% (12–6) (mid-May 2026) [1][2]
Stan Wawrinka 2026 Clay Court Record0–2 (ATP-level) (mid-May 2026) [3][4][5]
Upcoming MatchTabilo vs. Wawrinka, 2026 ATP Geneva, May 17, 2026 [6][7]
Alejandro Tabilo has performed strongly on clay in 2026. As of mid-May 2026, he has achieved a 12–6 record on clay courts, representing a 66.7% win rate [1][2]. This performance stands in contrast to Stan Wawrinka, who has experienced significant difficulties on this surface during the current season [1][2][3][4][5].
Stan Wawrinka has struggled on clay courts this season. His record includes a 0–2 showing in ATP-level clay court matches, with losses recorded in Monte Carlo and Barcelona [3][4]. Wawrinka has not secured any wins in his other clay court appearances in 2026 [5]. The two players are scheduled to compete against each other in the 2026 ATP Geneva tournament, with their match anticipated on May 17, 2026 [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Alejandro Tabilo 2026 ATP Season – Match Results & Statsstats.tennismylife.org
  2. 2ATP Rome Alejandro Tabilo vs Francisco Cerundolo...x.com
  3. 3Stan Wawrinka | year: 2026 - TennisLive.comtennislive.net
  4. 4Stan Wawrinka 2026 ATP Season – Match Results & Statsstats.tennismylife.org
  5. 5Stan Wawrinka | surface: Clay - TennisLive.comtennislive.net
  6. 6Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Tabilo vs Wawrinka Match on 17 May 2026 - Scores24scores24.live

6. What does the statistical breakdown of the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters match reveal about the Tabilo vs. Wawrinka matchup?

Prediction Market Match DateMay 16, 2026 [1][2][3]
2025 Match Event2025 Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 64 [4][5][6][7]
2025 Match ScoreTabilo defeated Wawrinka 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [4][5][6][7]
The available research details a historical match from 2025, not the 2026 prediction market event. The provided statistical breakdown pertains to a past encounter between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, distinct from their scheduled match on May 16, 2026, which is the subject of the "Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score" prediction market [4][5][6][7][1][2][3].
Alejandro Tabilo defeated Stan Wawrinka in their 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters encounter. In their Round of 64 match, Tabilo won with a final score of 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [4][5]. Wawrinka started strong, securing the first set 6-1. However, Tabilo initiated a comeback in the subsequent sets, notably focusing on Wawrinka's single-handed backhand [6][7]. Tabilo successfully capitalized on crucial points during his comeback, including winning 52% of points on Wawrinka's first serve in the decisive third set [4][5][6][7].
Therefore, the provided statistical breakdown does not reveal information relevant to the 2026 match. Consequently, the available data describes a historical 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters match and does not contain any statistical insights directly applicable to the 2026 ATP Geneva Open match for which the prediction market is concerned [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Statistics and results Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka - (16 May...sportytrader.com
  2. 2Tabilo vs Wawrinka Tennis Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3Tabilo vs Wawrinka Match on 17 May 2026 - Scores24scores24.live
  4. 42025 Monte Carlo Masters R64: Stan Wawrinka vs Alejandro Tabilo...tennisabstract.com
  5. 5Stan Wawrinka 1-2 Alejandro Tabilo final score - 7 April 2025, ATP Monte Carlo Masterssportytrader.com
  6. 62025 Misery Continues for Stan Wawrinka as Alejandro Tabilo Sets Up Novak Djokovic Clash at Monte Carlo Masters - The Playoffstheplayoffs.news
  7. 7Tabilo earns epic Monte-Carlo win, denies Djokovic-Wawrinka clash - Rolex Monte-Carlo Mastersmontecarlotennismasters.com

7. Are there any recent injury concerns or fitness reports for Tabilo or Wawrinka ahead of the Geneva Open?

Wawrinka's Rome Open Withdrawal ReasonBack pain [1][2]
Wawrinka's Geneva Open Status (as of May 16, 2026)Not withdrawn [1]
Tabilo's Active Injury ConcernsNone reported [3]
Stan Wawrinka has recent back pain concerns but is expected to play. He withdrew from the 2026 Rome Open qualifiers on May 5, 2026, due to back pain [1][2]. However, as of May 16, 2026, there have been no reports indicating he has withdrawn from the 2026 Geneva Open [1].
Alejandro Tabilo has no current injury concerns despite a past wrist issue. Ahead of the 2026 Geneva Open, Tabilo has no reported active injury concerns [3]. He previously experienced a bone edema in his wrist in 2025, but this is not an active problem [3]. A match between Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka is scheduled for the 2026 Geneva Open on May 16, 2026 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Basel "marks end of the line" for retiring Stan Wawrinka; back pain cuts his Rome qualifying bid short | Tennis.comtennis.com
  2. 2Stan Wawrinka’s farewell continues after Rome withdrawal setbacktennisuptodate.com
  3. 3Tabilo Overcomes Family Drama and Injury to Secure First Roland Garros Victoryrg.org
  4. 4Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Score - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Statistics and results Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka - (16 May...sportytrader.com

8. How do Tabilo's and Wawrinka's key service and return game metrics compare on clay throughout the 2026 season?

Alejandro Tabilo Service Hold % (2026 Clay)86.77% [1]
Stan Wawrinka Service Hold % (2026 Clay)75.31% [2]
Alejandro Tabilo Break % (2026 Clay)22.33% [1]
Alejandro Tabilo shows stronger service and return metrics on 2026 clay. Throughout the 2026 season on clay, Tabilo has demonstrated stronger key service and return game metrics compared to Stan Wawrinka, notably achieving higher service hold and break percentages [1][2].
Tabilo has a strong winning record and high service hold percentage. He has compiled a strong 12–6 record (66.7%) on clay in the 2026 season. During this period, Tabilo maintained an 86.77% service hold percentage and a 22.33% break percentage [1].
Wawrinka's 2026 clay season shows limited activity and lower metrics. In contrast, Stan Wawrinka has had limited activity on clay in the 2026 season, holding a 0–2 record. Across those matches, Wawrinka's service hold percentage is 75.31%, and his break percentage is 16.67% [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Alejandro Tabilo 2026 ATP Season – Match Results & Statsstats.tennismylife.org
  2. 2Stan Wawrinka 2026 ATP Season – Match Results & Statsstats.tennismylife.org

9. What is Stan Wawrinka's historical performance at the Geneva Open, and how might the home-crowd factor influence the match?

Geneva Open Wins2 (2016, 2017) [1][2][3][4]
Geneva Open Match Record10-3 [1][2][3][4]
Tabilo Match Odds vs Wawrinka1.39 [5][6]
Stan Wawrinka boasts a strong historical performance at the Geneva Open. He has won the tournament twice, in 2016 and 2017, and holds an impressive 10-3 match record at the event [1][2][3][4]. The 2026 Geneva Open marks a significant occasion as it will be Wawrinka's final appearance at the tournament, coinciding with his retirement from professional tennis at the end of the 2026 season [7][8].
The home crowd will significantly influence Wawrinka's final Geneva appearance. As a Swiss tennis icon participating in his last Geneva Open, the home-crowd factor is expected to be substantial, potentially providing him with additional motivation and support [7][9][4]. However, despite Wawrinka's historical success and anticipated crowd backing, Alejandro Tabilo is currently favored to win their 2026 Geneva Open Round of 32 match, with reported odds for Tabilo around 1.39 [5][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Stan Wawrinka's record and stats in the draw in Geneva over the...tennistonic.com
  2. 2Stan Wawrinka career statisticsen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Stan Wawrinka wins first title in Switzerland in over 10 years - ESPNespn.com
  4. 4Gonet Geneva Open 2026: Draws, dates, history & all you need to know | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  5. 5Alejandro Tabilo vs. Stan Wawrinka prediction, odds, picks...dimers.com
  6. 6Alejandro Tabilo Stan Wawrinka Odds 17 May 2026 (ATP...sportytrader.com
  7. 7Geneva Open: Wawrinka plays one more time in Geneva | blue Newsbluewin.ch
  8. 82026 Geneva Open entry list: Stan's Final Stand - CRUSH AND RUSH NEWScrushrushnews.com
  9. 9Stan Wawrinka wins 1st match since February at Geneva Opensportsnet.ca

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Alejandro Tabilo and Stan Wawrinka are scheduled to play each other in the first round (Round of 32) of the 2026 ATP Geneva Open [1][2]. The only previous head-to-head meeting between Tabilo and Wawrinka occurred at the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters, where Tabilo won 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 [3][4].
Prediction markets for this match have a closing date of May 30, 2026, which serves as a deadline for the market to resolve, rather than the date of the match itself [5][6]. The match was originally scheduled for mid-May 2026, for example May 18, and betting markets reflect this timeframe [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 30, 2026
  • Closes: May 30, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèveradiolac.ch
  2. 2Wawrinka-Tabilo au 1er tour à Genèvelfm.ch
  3. 3Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Head-to-Head Record & Stats | TennisDBtennis-db.com
  4. 4Alejandro Tabilo downs Stan Wawrinka in Monte-Carlo | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  5. 5Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka: Exact Match Scorekalshi.com
  6. 6Tabilo vs Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Round Of 32 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  7. 7Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction - Switzerlandeuropesays.com
  8. 8Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka - Geneva Open - Polymarketpolymarket.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-TAB21: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-TAB20: YES (May 16, 2026)
  • KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-HUE21: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16HUETAB-HUE20: NO (May 16, 2026)
  • KXATPEXACTMATCH-26MAY16BRAZIN-ZIN21: NO (May 16, 2026)