Topic tracker · Mentions
Hearing Mention
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Hearing Mention markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 16, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Markwayne Mullin say during the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security? | June 2, 2026 | 70.8% vs 59.0% | Report → |
| What will Thomas Massie say during the hearing on The Second Amendment? | April 16, 2026 | 0.8% vs 1.0% | Report → |
