Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: "Event does not qualify" at 70.8% model vs 59.0% market, suggesting the market may be underestimating the likelihood that Markwayne Mullin will not make a qualifying statement during the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price trend for this market has been sharply upward, moving from a starting probability of 2.0% to a current price of 59.0%. The most significant price movement was a dramatic 55.0 percentage point spike on May 16, 2026, which saw the probability jump from near 4.0% to 59.0%. This surge appears to be driven by a temporal mismatch related to the hearing schedule. Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who was confirmed in March 2026, is scheduled to testify on May 18, 2026. The price movement suggests that traders believe this scheduling detail may cause the event to not qualify under the market's terms.
The volume patterns reinforce the significance of the price spike. Trading volume was minimal in the days prior but rose substantially on May 16, coinciding with the sharp price increase. This indicates that the move was backed by market conviction as traders actively responded to the new information. Due to the rapid ascent, clear support or resistance levels have not yet been established, but the price has formed a new plateau around the 59.0% level. Overall, the chart suggests a dramatic reversal in market sentiment, shifting from a very low probability to a belief that the event is more likely than not to fail to qualify for resolution.
  • DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin is scheduled to testify at an oversight hearing.
  • FY2027 DHS budget requests on border security may trigger questions.
  • Secretary Mullin emphasized a restrained approach to immigration enforcement policies.
  • Recent election security concerns may compel Mullin to address AI.
  • Mullin's testimony is expected to cover DHS funding and immigration enforcement.

Current Context

Markwayne Mullin became the Secretary of Homeland Security in March 2026. He was confirmed to this role on March 24, 2026, succeeding Kristi Noem, following his resignation from the U.S. Senate [1][2]. As the current U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, Mullin was scheduled to testify at an oversight hearing before a House Appropriations subcommittee on May 18, 2026 [3][4][5].
However, the scheduled May 18, 2026, hearing has since been postponed. As of May 16, 2026, the status of this oversight hearing concerning the Department of Homeland Security is listed as 'Postponed' [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Markwayne Mullin confirmed as the next secretary of Homeland Security: NPRnpr.org
  2. 2Markwayne Mullinen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  4. 4Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securityappropriations.house.gov
  5. 5Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Security | Congress.govcongress.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Event does not qualify

📈 May 16, 2026: 55.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 59.0%

What happened: The 55.0 percentage point spike in the "Event does not qualify" outcome on May 16, 2026, was primarily driven by a temporal mismatch related to the hearing schedule. Markwayne Mullin's Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security is officially scheduled for May 18, 2026, two days after the observed price movement [1][2][3]. Consequently, any statements Mullin might make during the hearing would not have occurred by May 16, 2026, causing the market outcome for "Event does not qualify" to spike as participants recognized the event could not qualify for resolution by that date. No specific social media activity or traditional news on May 16, 2026, was identified in the provided sources that caused this particular movement, making social media largely irrelevant to this specific price change.

Outcome: Shutdown / Shut Down

📈 May 15, 2026: 46.0pp spike

Price increased from 39.0% to 85.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 46.0 percentage point spike was the traditional news reported on May 15, 2026, that the U.S. Senate approved a resolution to withhold their own pay during future government shutdowns [4][5][6]. This news, directly related to "shutdowns" and coinciding with the market movement, likely increased the perceived probability that Markwayne Mullin would mention the topic during his upcoming Department of Homeland Security oversight hearing [7]. Given that the DHS recently concluded a record-breaking 76-day partial shutdown on April 30, 2026, the Senate's action made "shutdowns" a highly relevant subject for discussion [8][9][10]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives were found in the available research for this date.

📈 May 14, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 39.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 37.0 percentage point price spike on May 14, 2026, was the U.S. Senate's unanimous passage of a resolution to withhold senators' pay during future government shutdowns [11][4][6]. This traditional news announcement, occurring on the same day as the market movement, directly related to the "Shutdown / Shut Down" outcome. Considering the recent 76-day partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown that ended on April 30, 2026, this Senate action likely increased the perceived probability that "shutdown" would be mentioned during Markwayne Mullin's upcoming Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security [1][2][3][11][4][6]. Social media activity was irrelevant as no related findings were present in the provided sources.
Sources (11)
  1. 1Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  2. 2Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securityappropriations.house.gov
  3. 3Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securitydemocrats-appropriations.house.gov
  4. 4Future shutdowns could temporarily halt senators’ paychecksgovexec.com
  5. 5Senators approve resolution withholding their paychecks during future shutdownsfederalnewsnetwork.com
  6. 6Senators finally SLASH their own paychecks during shutdownsdailymail.com
  7. 7Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  8. 8Congress ends record shutdown at DHS: NPRnpr.org
  9. 9DHS Ends Record 76-Day Partial Shutdown with Partial Funding | ICE & Border Security Next in Reconciliation Push (May 2026 Update)michaelrcronin.com
  10. 10Congress ends record-shattering DHS shutdown – Politics and Entertainmentpoliticsentertainment.com
  11. 11Senators approve withholding their own pay during government shutdowns - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the market "Event does not qualify," a "Yes" resolution occurs if Markwayne Mullin does not speak in an official capacity at the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security during a live, press-open broadcast, or if the event is cancelled or fails to meet payout criteria. It resolves to "No" if Mullin does speak officially under those conditions. The market opened May 14, 2026, closes after the outcome or by June 2, 2026, and resolves primarily using video or official transcripts, excluding unofficial statements or archival footage.

Market Discussion

Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin is scheduled to testify at a House Appropriations subcommittee oversight hearing on May 18, 2026 [1][2]. His recent public statements have focused on immigration enforcement funding, the need to reopen the Department of Homeland Security, completing the southern border wall by 2027, and law enforcement partnerships [3][4][5][6]. Prediction markets are offering contracts on whether Mullin will mention terms such as "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the hearing, and he is reported to face pressure to repair the relationship between the Department of Homeland Security and Congress regarding funding and oversight [7][8].

Sources (8)
  1. 1Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  2. 2Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securitydemocrats-appropriations.house.gov
  3. 3Secretary Mullin News Conference on Immigration Enforcement Fundingc-span.org
  4. 4DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin details first 40 days at DHS Secretary: EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWnewson6.com
  5. 5DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin promotes Oklahoma as a model for national security: EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWnews9.com
  6. 6DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin Vows to Complete the Border Wall by 2027townhall.com
  7. 7What will Markwayne Mullin say during the Oversight Hearing on...kalshi.com
  8. 8Mullin has more work to do to repair the relationship between DHS and Congresspolitico.com

5. What specific FY2027 DHS budget requests are most likely to trigger questions from the House Appropriations Committee about "border" security or "deportation" efforts?

CBP Border Security Budget$18.5 billion (FY2027) [1][2]
ICE Detention Bed Target50,000 beds [3][4]
CBP Budget FocusCounter-narcotics and enforcement personnel retention [1][2]
The FY2027 DHS budget proposes significant funds for border security. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is requesting $18.5 billion for Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to execute the administration's border security strategy. This substantial allocation, focused on counter-narcotics initiatives and retaining enforcement personnel, is highly likely to prompt questions from the House Appropriations Committee concerning "border" security or "deportation" efforts [1][2].
ICE detention expansion and enforcement tactics will also draw committee attention. Beyond CBP funding, several other areas within the FY2027 DHS budget are anticipated to face scrutiny. These include plans for expanding ICE detention capacity, aiming for a goal of 50,000 beds. Additionally, the committee is expected to raise questions about the use of roving patrols, specific warrant requirements for operations, and the overall impact of enforcement activities on legal refugees [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/26_0403_ocfo_fy27-budget-customs-and-border-protection.pdfdhs.gov
  2. 2Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 Budget-in-Brief | Homeland Securitydhs.gov
  3. 3DHS Appropriations Hearing | House Rules Committee 2026legis1.com
  4. 4WATCH: Mullin tells senators DHS needs funding as he faces confirmation hearing | 12newsnow.com12newsnow.com

6. What are the publicly stated priorities of the House Appropriations subcommittee chair regarding the May 2026 oversight hearing with Secretary Mullin?

Oversight Hearing StatusScheduled for May 2026, but postponed [1][2][3]
Secretary Mullin's PrioritiesSafeguarding the American people, defending the homeland, and ensuring law enforcement, preparedness, and intelligence agencies operate at the highest level (March 2026 [4])
Congressional RelationshipSecretary Mullin faces challenges in repairing the relationship between DHS and Congress [5]
An oversight hearing for Secretary Mullin was postponed despite previous scheduling. A House Appropriations subcommittee had scheduled an oversight hearing for the Department of Homeland Security, featuring Secretary Markwayne Mullin, for May 2026. However, this hearing has since been postponed [1][2][3]. A central theme associated with this oversight was the reported challenges Secretary Mullin faces in repairing the relationship between the Department of Homeland Security and Congress [5].
Subcommittee chair priorities are not stated, but Mullin shared his. The provided information does not explicitly state the publicly announced priorities of the House Appropriations subcommittee chair regarding the May 2026 oversight hearing. Nevertheless, Secretary Mullin articulated his own priorities during his March 2026 confirmation testimony. These priorities include safeguarding the American people, defending the homeland, and ensuring law enforcement, preparedness, and intelligence agencies operate at the highest possible level [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  2. 2Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securityappropriations.house.gov
  3. 3Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securitydocs.house.gov
  4. 4https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/library/files/prepared-statement-mullin-2026-03-18/prepared-statement-mullin-2026-03-18/hsgac.senate.gov
  5. 5Mullin has more work to do to repair the relationship between DHS...politico.com

7. How do Secretary Mullin's public statements on immigration since his March 2026 confirmation compare with those of his predecessor, Kristi Noem, during her final year?

Secretary Mullin ConfirmationMarch 23, 2026 [1][2][3]
Noem's Claimed Removals2.5 million illegal aliens [4][5][6]
Mullin's Primary GoalRestore confidence in DHS [7][8][9]
Secretary Mullin emphasized a restrained approach to immigration enforcement policies. Markwayne Mullin was confirmed as the 9th Secretary of Homeland Security on March 23, 2026, succeeding Kristi Noem [1][2][3]. During his confirmation hearings in March 2026, Secretary Mullin publicly committed to restoring confidence within the Department of Homeland Security [7][8][9]. His proposed approach included requiring judicial warrants for entering homes or businesses, except in cases of active pursuit, and treating the withholding of federal funding from non-cooperative cities as a measure of last resort [7][8][9]. This stance notably diverged from his predecessor's more aggressive and record-focused rhetoric [7][8].
Noem's final year highlighted specific immigration enforcement accomplishments. During her final year in 2025, Secretary Kristi Noem's public statements focused on celebrating what she termed "historic" achievements in immigration [4][5][6]. These achievements included the reported removal of 2.5 million illegal aliens, increased border security, and the termination of Temporary Protected Status for several countries [4][5][6]. Secretary Noem was fired by President Trump prior to Mullin's confirmation, following controversies regarding her leadership and the use of taxpayer funds [1][2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Senate confirms Sen. Markwayne Mullin as DHS secretary - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  2. 2Senate confirms Markwayne Mullin as next DHS secretarycnbc.com
  3. 3Markwayne Mullin confirmed as the next secretary of Homeland Security: NPRnpr.org
  4. 4Message from Secretary Kristi Noem | Homeland Securitydhs.gov
  5. 5Thanks to President Trump and Secretary Noem, More than 2.5 Million Illegal Aliens Left the U.S. | Homeland Securitydhs.gov
  6. 6Under President Trump and Secretary Noem, the Department of Homeland Security Has Historic Year | Homeland Securitydhs.gov
  7. 7Where Markwayne Mullin stands on key immigration-related issuesnewsnationnow.com
  8. 8Where Markwayne Mullin stands on key immigration issuesyahoo.com
  9. 9Policy Bulletin — Friday, March 20, 2026 - National Immigration Forumforumtogether.org

8. Are keyword-searchable transcripts from Markwayne Mullin's Senate confirmation hearings in early 2026 publicly available for analysis?

Senate Confirmation Hearing DateMarch 18, 2026 [1][2]
Confirmation RoleSecretary of Homeland Security [1][2]
Oversight Hearing TypeHouse Appropriations subcommittee hearing [3][4]
Keyword-searchable transcripts and video recordings are publicly available for Markwayne Mullin's Senate confirmation hearing for Secretary of Homeland Security. This hearing took place on March 18, 2026, and C-SPAN's official website offers these resources, including synchronized, searchable transcripts for the event [1][2].
Secretary Mullin also testified at a separate oversight hearing. This 'Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security,' referenced by a prediction market, likely pertains to a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing. Mullin testified at this hearing, which was originally scheduled and then rescheduled, and C-SPAN also provides coverage of his testimony before this committee [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Homeland Security Secy. Nominee Sen. Markwayne Mullin Testifies at Confirmation Hearing | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
  2. 2Confirmation Hearing for Homeland Security Security Nominee Markwayne Mullin | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
  3. 3Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  4. 4Oversight Hearing – Department of Homeland Securitydocs.house.gov

9. What recent national security events between March and May 2026 could compel Secretary Mullin to address "AI" or foreign "election" interference?

Election Security Letter DateMay 2026 (Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin) [1][2]
Election Security Group StatusDormant as of April/May 2026 [3]
AI Budget Increase Request2,660% (US Cyber Command for AI in cyber operations in May 2026) [4]
Recent election security concerns may compel Secretary Mullin to address foreign interference. In May 2026, Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner sent a letter to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin, seeking answers regarding a significant reduction in federal election security support from CISA prior to the 2026 midterms [1][2]. The Senator specifically highlighted worries about foreign interference and cyber threats [1][2]. Concurrently, as of April and May 2026, the specialized Election Security Group (ESG), established to safeguard US elections from foreign meddling, remained inactive [3]. Reports from the period also indicated a rise in AI-generated deepfakes targeting the 2026 midterm elections [5].
Significant AI advancements and threats could prompt Secretary Mullin to address artificial intelligence. In May 2026, US Cyber Command requested a substantial 2,660% budget increase specifically for AI in cyber operations [4]. Furthermore, Google identified the first AI-developed zero-day exploit, which state-sponsored actors had already utilized, thwarting a planned mass exploitation event [6]. These critical developments, combined with the aforementioned election-specific AI and foreign interference issues, create a strong imperative for Secretary Mullin to address either AI or foreign election interference [1][2][4][6][3][5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Senator warns CISA election security pullback could leave midterms vulnerable - Nextgov/FCWnextgov.com
  2. 2CISA's sharp reductions in election-security assistance could leave midterms vulnerable, senator says - Defense Onedefenseone.com
  3. 3US cyber team hasn’t been activated yet to protect midterm elections from foreign meddling | CNN Politicscnn.com
  4. 4CYBERCOM requests 2,660 percent increase in AI for cyber operations - Breaking Defensebreakingdefense.com
  5. 5AI Deepfakes Proliferate in 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Despite Regulatory Efforts - Center for Foreign Interference Researchforeigninterference.org
  6. 6Google identifies first AI-developed zero-day exploit and thwarts planned mass exploitation eventthenextweb.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin is scheduled to testify before the House Appropriations Committee at an oversight hearing. While initially scheduled for May 18, 2026, it was postponed and is expected to be a key public appearance for him to address lawmakers [1][2].
Key topics for Mullin's testimony are expected to include the ongoing DHS funding standoff, immigration enforcement, staffing shortages (including cybersecurity personnel), and his efforts to repair the relationship between DHS and Congress [2][3][4][5]. Mullin has recently emphasized the need for additional funding for immigration enforcement agencies ahead of the FIFA World Cup, citing a lack of security thresholds at stadiums [3]. It is also important to note that there is no public record of a specific hearing scheduled for June 2, 2026; the June 2 date appears to be a misinterpretation or confusion with other legislative or administrative timelines [2][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 02, 2026
  • Closes: June 02, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Secretary Mullin Testifies on Oversight of Homeland Security...c-span.org
  2. 2Mullin has more work to do to repair the relationship between DHS and Congresspolitico.com
  3. 3Secretary Mullin News Conference on Immigration Enforcement Fundingc-span.org
  4. 4DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin details first 40 days at DHS Secretary: EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWnewson6.com
  5. 5DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin promotes Oklahoma as a model for national security: EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWnews9.com
  6. 6Markwayne Mullin has started making policy changes at DHS. Some GOP lawmakers want him to do more | Politics | wkow.comwkow.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12-TRUM: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12-TERR: YES (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12-SURV: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12-SECR: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12-NQE: NO (May 12, 2026)