Above 1000 million
Market Model 0.0% 2.0%
Above 1050 million
Market Model 0.0% 1.0%
Topic tracker · Financials
Mercado Libre KPI
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 7 so far (3 live, 4 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Mercado Libre KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated November 6, 2026
Live markets
Above $24 billion
Market Model 0.0% 12.0%
Above $25 billion
Market Model 0.0% 11.5%
Above 101 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Above 103 million
Market Model 0.0% 20.0%
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| MercadoLibre items sold in Q3 2026 | November 4, 2026 | 98.2% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| MercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in Q3 | November 4, 2026 | 28.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| MercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3 | November 4, 2026 | 89.0% vs 98.0% | Report → |
| MercadoLibre items sold in Q2 | September 2, 2026 | 96.3% vs 96.0% | Report → |
