Topic tracker · Financials

Meta KPI

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (3 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Meta KPI markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated August 6, 2026

Live markets

Meta ad impressions growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 18%

Market Model 5.0% 1.7%

Above 16%

Market Model 9.0% 9.7%

Meta headcount in Q3 Kalshi

Above 77 thousand

Market Model 1.0% 3.2%

Above 69 thousand

Market Model 57.0% 26.3%

Meta family daily active people in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.69 billion

Market Model 8.0% 38.9%

Above 3.66 billion

Market Model 26.0% 38.9%

Series history

Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.

Market	Closed	Model vs market	Actions
Meta headcount in Q2	July 29, 2026	—	Report →
Meta family daily active people in Q2	July 29, 2026	—	Report →

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