Topic tracker · Financials
S&P 500 above/below
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new S&P 500 above/below markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated April 12, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price on Apr 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT? | April 13, 2026 | 98.8% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 12pm EST? | February 13, 2026 | 0.0% vs 21.5% | Report → |
| S&P price on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST? | February 13, 2026 | 64.0% vs 64.0% | Report → |
