Topic tracker · Financials
S&P 500 range
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 4 so far (0 live, 4 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new S&P 500 range markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 8, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P price range on May 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT? | May 8, 2026 | 0.5% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| S&P price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT? | April 10, 2026 | 12.6% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| S&P price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 4pm EST? | February 20, 2026 | 7.1% vs 10.5% | Report → |
| S&P price range on Feb 13, 2026 at 4pm EST? | February 13, 2026 | 0.4% vs 0.5% | Report → |
