Crypto / Bitcoin
Market Model 2.0% 0.6%
Farm / Farmer
Market Model 89.0% 90.0%
Topic tracker · Mentions
Trump Mention B
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 8 so far (1 live, 7 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Trump Mention B markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated November 1, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Trump say during his rally in Montana? | October 28, 2026 | 0.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his announcement? | October 21, 2026 | 43.6% vs 52.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? | October 6, 2026 | 4.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his remarks to U.S. Embassy Personnel and Business Leaders? | September 26, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Who will Trump mention during the RNC Midterm Convention? | September 24, 2026 | 87.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during his remarks at Mount Rushmore? | July 18, 2026 | 0.3% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say during the Medal of Honor Ceremony? | March 16, 2026 | 5.5% vs 5.5% | Report → |
