What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
Short Answer
Donald Trump is not expected to mention "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during his United Nations meetings, with the market pricing this outcome at 1.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's 45.0 percentage point drop on September 22 stemmed directly from the content of Donald Trump's United Nations speech. Reports on the address detailed a focus on Iran, including a defense of military action and a call for economic sanctions. This subject matter appeared to conflict with the topic the market had initially priced for discussion.
A further 27.0 point decline the following day was driven by news reports that outlined the agenda for Trump's subsequent UN meetings. The schedule was reportedly dominated by geopolitical crises, specifically the war in Ukraine and ongoing issues with Iran. This reporting solidified the market's view that the initially expected topic would not be mentioned, leading the contract's probability to collapse to 1.0%. The significant trading volume of over 30,000 contracts on September 23 suggests conviction in this final repricing.
- NATO mentions are likely, given Trump's 2026 foreign policy agenda connections.
- Trade and tariff discussions are expected, influenced by U.S.-China negotiations.
- Oil discourse is probable, concerning differing messaging for specific bilateral meetings.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 1.0% | 4.0% | Future technology and global competitiveness discussions may include AI. |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1.0% | 0.3% | Trump has publicly expressed views on cryptocurrency and its economic implications. |
| Israel / Israeli | 1.0% | 0.3% | Israel is a key ally, frequently mentioned by Trump in foreign policy. |
| Ceasefire | 1.0% | 0.3% | Ceasefires are common topics in international peace and security discussions. |
| NATO | 1.0% | 0.8% | NATO is a recurring topic for Trump regarding international alliances. |
Current Context
Trump’s non-General Assembly UN meetings on September 23, 2026, covered key global issues. He held a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with an agenda including an energy ceasefire, ending the Russia-Ukraine war, pressure on Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries, and potential Patriot air-defense support [1][2][3]. Trump also met Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez, and had contacts with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, and Gulf representatives from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar [4][2]. Prediction market data for non-General Assembly UN meetings on September 23, 2026, priced NATO around 50%, Hormuz around 51%, and the European Union around 26% [5][6]. Other terms like Stock Market, Rare Earth/Mineral, Putin, Oil/Gas/Gasoline, and Greenland (3+ times) were near 99.5%, while Nobel, Peace in the Middle East, Burnham, and Crypto/Bitcoin were around 0.5–2% [5][6].
Discussions focused on specific outcomes for Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela. Following his meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump's messaging was optimistic and deal-focused, suggesting Russia and Ukraine would reach an agreement [3][7][8]. Zelenskyy confirmed discussions on peace efforts and an energy ceasefire [3][8]. Iran-related talks centered on diplomacy versus escalation, with Trump describing mediator talks as productive and indicating momentum toward a deal [9]. Gulf diplomacy focused on restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, making Iran, a deal, Hormuz, and military pressure plausible discussion points [9][10]. The Venezuela discussion likely emphasized U.S. military power, the capture of Maduro, political prisoners, energy, oil, mining, investment, and debt [4][11]. Trump's earlier UNGA remarks had called Maduro an outlaw dictator and portrayed a raid as evidence of U.S. resolve [11].
Trump’s broader messaging emphasized transactional, America-First approaches. He was expected to use the meetings for transactional messaging, pressuring allies and counterparts on war outcomes, energy prices, security burden-sharing, Arctic/Greenland access, and potential commercial arrangements [12][2][11]. This approach prioritizes America-First policies over institutional language [12][2][11]. It is crucial to note that all remarks made during Trump’s United Nations General Assembly address are explicitly excluded from this market [5][13][14][15][16]. While C-SPAN records footage of Trump's arrival at the UN and his General Assembly address, the retrieved evidence does not provide a complete transcript of every non-UNGA meeting [17][18][19]. The resolution source for this market is event audio/video [16].
Sources (19)
- 1Zelenskiy to meet Trump at UN in push for energy truce with Russia | Reutersreuters.com
- 2Trump set for whirlwind UN meetings with wars in Iran, Ukraine on agenda | Reutersreuters.com
- 3Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he discussed peace efforts, energy ceasefire with Trump | Reutersreuters.com
- 4Trump to meet Venezuela's Rodriguez for first time since Maduro's capture | Reutersreuters.com
- 5What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 6What will Donald Trump say during any United Nations meeting or event, excluding remarks to the United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 7Trump suggests a Ukraine deal on Russia's war could be close while meeting with Zelenskyy | Newsernewser.com
- 8Zelenskyy Pushes To End The War Before Winter; Trump Thinks Both Sides Are Ready - Eurasia Revieweurasiareview.com
- 9Trump says US and Iran met after his UN speech - AP Newsapnews.com
- 10Trump threatens to annihilate Iran as diplomats push for deal at UN - Middle East and Africa - The Jakarta Postthejakartapost.com
- 11Trump’s U.N. speech reveals a world realigned by his policy and pressure, with China in the wings | Just The Newsjustthenews.com
- 12Trump eyes busy week of meetings as UN General Assembly gathersreuters.com
- 13What will Trump say during address to UN General Assembly... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 14What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?probsee.com
- 15Trump defends military action against Iran, Venezuela, and calls for rebrand of AI | UN Newsnews.un.org
- 16What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?polymarket.com
- 17President Trump Arrives at United Nations | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 18President Trump Addresses United Nations General Assemblyc-span.org
- 19President Trump Arrives at the U.N. General Assembly, Tells CNN's...c-span.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: AI / Artificial Intelligence
📉 September 23, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 27.0 percentage point drop was traditional news reporting on September 22, 2026, which emphasized that Trump's UN agenda would be dominated by geopolitical issues like Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war [1][2][3]. These reports likely lowered market expectations that AI would be a primary focus of his remarks, even though he later addressed AI during his September 23, 2026, speech [4][5][6]. By highlighting other major agenda items, the news caused a shift in perception, reducing the perceived probability of a significant AI mention. Based on the available information, social media activity appears irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Outcome: Peace in the Middle East
📉 September 22, 2026: 62.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 2.0%
What happened: The 62.0 percentage point drop in the "Peace in the Middle East" market was primarily driven by the actual content of Donald Trump's United Nations meetings and speech on September 22, 2026 [7][4][8]. During his address, Trump's focus centered on Iran, where he defended military action, urged economic isolation, and warned he could "annihilate the Islamic Republic" if no deal were reached [7][4][8]. This contrasted sharply with any prior high expectations that he would explicitly state "Peace in the Middle East," leading to a significant market correction down to 8% [9]. Social media activity was not a primary driver; a noted social media post attributed to Trump saying, "There'll be peace in the Middle East," was deemed unreliable and would not have caused this drop [10][9].
Sources (10)
- 1Trump warns in UN speech he could 'annihilate' Iran without peace...reuters.com
- 2Trump tells U.N. he could 'annihilate' Iran but expects a deal after the...nbcnews.com
- 3Key moments from the first day of UN General Assembly speechescnn.com
- 4Trump defends military action against Iran, Venezuela, and calls for rebrand of AI | UN Newsnews.un.org
- 5Killer robots or super intelligence? Trump and world leaders clash over AI | Euronewseuronews.com
- 6US President Trump rejects 'globalist' AI control, clashes with OpenAI, Anthropic - TNGlobaltechnode.global
- 7Trump warns in UN speech he could 'annihilate' Iran without peace deal - CNAchannelnewsasia.com
- 8Trump defends Iran war and threatens annihilation at UN General Assembly | PBS Newspbs.org
- 9Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" before Sep 28, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 10U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said special envoys Steve...facebook.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if Donald Trump mentions the specified topic (e.g., "AI / Artificial Intelligence") during his United Nations meetings, while a NO resolution occurs if he does not. The market is expected to resolve by October 6, 2026. The provided content does not detail specific settlement conditions or how "mention" is defined beyond the market question itself.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abraham Accords | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| AUKUS | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Burnham | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ceasefire | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| European Union / EU | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Event does not qualify | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Israel / Israeli | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| NATO | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Nobel | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Peace in the Middle East | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Qatar | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Saudi | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Taiwan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
During his United Nations General Assembly address on September 22, 2026, President Trump is reported to have discussed the Iran conflict, Venezuela, artificial intelligence (which he suggested calling "superintelligence"), and conflicts he claimed to have helped end [1]. For broader United Nations meetings, market participants and commentators focused on Iran and oil, Russia/Ukraine, tariffs, Venezuela, and Arctic/Greenland security arrangements as leading expected topics [2].
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score46High Risk
Trade quality20% of score9Avoid
Trust score38High Risk
Market integrity (20) is below its safety floor, but the score was already under that cap's ceiling, so no cap applied.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What specific economic or security developments concerning China or Russia before September 2026 could compel Trump to prioritize topics like "trade," "tariffs," or "oil" in his UN side meetings?
| US-China Tariff Truce Expiration | November 10, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Potential Section 301 Tariff Increase | 7.5% [1][3] |
| Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act Signed | September 18, 2026 [3][4][5] |
U.S.-China tariff negotiations significantly influenced Trump's agenda [1][2]. A looming U.S.-China tariff deadline was significant, with the truce expiring on November 10, 2026 [1][2]. The U.S. was reportedly considering a Section 301 tariff increase of 7.5% [1][3]. Negotiations specifically covered tariff reductions on about $30 billion of two-way trade, agriculture, non-tariff barriers, and potential Chinese purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1][3].
New U.S. sanctions targeted major buyers of Russian energy [3][4][5]. Further economic pressure arose from the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed on September 18, 2026, which authorized tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas [3][4][5]. China, identified as a primary target and buyer of roughly half of Russia's crude exports, made Russian energy purchases a direct agenda item for Trump-Xi discussions [4][5]. Global oil supplies were also unusually tight due to Middle East conflicts disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure [5][6][7][8].
Broader security concerns amplified economic priorities for discussions [1][3][7][8]. Security developments likely to influence discussions included Taiwan tensions, China's relationship with Iran, alleged Chinese assistance to Iran in evading sanctions, and reports of China providing satellite imagery used in an Iranian strike that caused American fatalities [1][3][7][8]. Russia's continued war in Ukraine, with missile and drone attacks targeting energy infrastructure, also remained a critical factor [7][8]. These combined pressures made oil, gas, gasoline, and trade-related issues central to Trump's side meetings [9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Key issues for this week's Trump-Xi summit in Washington | Reutersreuters.com
- 2US-China Negotiate AI and Trade; Trump's High Stakes UN Speech | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Editionyoutube.com
- 3Ten Issues to Watch at the Trump-Xi Summit in Washingtoncfr.org
- 4Trump signs bill targeting China's Russia energy imports days...scmp.com
- 5US tariffs against Russian oil buyers pass: What it means for China...aljazeera.com
- 6Trump says US and Iran met after his UN speech - AP Newsapnews.com
- 7Key moments from the first day of UN General Assembly speechescnn.com
- 8WATCH: Trump addresses 2026 United Nations General Assemblypbs.org
- 9What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
7. What evidence from Trump's 2026 foreign policy statements supports the high market probability of him mentioning "NATO" during his bilateral meetings?
| Likelihood of NATO mention | High market probability during UN bilateral meetings [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Defense spending target | 5% for European allies and Canada [3][4][5] |
| Central NATO message (2026) | Burden-sharing [3][4][5] |
Trump's 2026 statements strongly suggest NATO mentions in UN bilateral meetings. His foreign policy agenda for 2026 consistently connected key themes to discussions at the United Nations, creating numerous opportunities for "NATO" to emerge as a significant keyword [3][4][5][6][7][1][2]. The administration's focus for the year was largely on burden-sharing, with Trump consistently pressing European allies and Canada to increase their defense contributions to 5% [3][4][5].
The NATO Secretary General’s "NATO 3.0" concept highlights equalized defense spending. The Secretary General acknowledged Trump's 2026 agenda by linking it to "NATO 3.0," emphasizing equalized European and U.S. defense spending and a strong U.S. commitment to the alliance [6][7]. These topics are expected to be prominent whenever Trump engages with European or other allied leaders [6][7]. The September 22 UN schedule included multiple bilateral and small-group meetings with leaders such as UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, presenting several instances where a NATO-related talking point could be raised, particularly with European and security partners [8][1][2]. This strong rationale for the high probability of "NATO" mentions stems from the thematic overlap between the UN bilateral agenda, which includes Iran, Ukraine, European security, and allied burden-sharing, all subjects that Trump's 2026 foreign policy remarks have repeatedly associated with NATO [1][2].
Sources (8)
- 1WATCH: Trump addresses 2026 United Nations General Assemblypbs.org
- 2Trump says he can do business with Burnham but criticises... - BBCbbc.com
- 3Trump's NATO pressure campaign continues as summit begins - NPRnpr.org
- 4NATO: Issues for the July 2026 Ankara Summit - Congress.govcongress.gov
- 5Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Defense...whitehouse.gov
- 6Press conference | NATO Transcriptnato.int
- 7Doorstep statement | NATO Transcriptnato.int
- 8North Atlantic Treaty Organization | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
8. How might Trump's expected messaging on "oil" and "investment" differ between his meetings with Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
| Venezuela oil deal value | Roughly $100 billion investment [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Oil context (Rodriguez meeting) | Promotional, transactional Venezuela frame [4][1][2][3] |
| Investment context (Zelenskyy meeting) | Security and reconstruction [5] |
Donald Trump's messaging on "oil" and "investment" would differ significantly between meetings. With Delcy Rodriguez, these terms would likely be used in a promotional, transactional context, focusing on redeveloping Venezuela's oil sector [4][1][2][3]. Conversely, a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy would frame "oil" within discussions of war and energy pressure, while "investment" would refer to security and reconstruction efforts [5].
With Rodriguez, Trump would promote Venezuela's oil sector investability. He has previously described a potential oil arrangement as the largest deal ever, aiming for approximately $100 billion invested in Venezuela’s oil sector. This deal would include promises of protection for companies and would be linked to the rebuilding of Venezuela [1][2][3]. Discussions would likely focus on boosting investment to increase oil output in Venezuela and comparing its production capabilities [6][7], potentially against China's imports [8].
For Zelenskyy, messaging would center on security, reconstruction, and energy. Trump would more plausibly frame "investment" around security and reconstruction, and "oil" within a war and energy-pressure context [5]. The immediate agenda for this type of meeting would likely involve ending Russia’s war and an energy ceasefire [5]. The established U.S.-Ukraine economic focus includes mineral-resource investment, rather than large-scale oil development akin to Venezuela’s potential [9]. Thus, "investment" would more likely concern Ukraine’s resources or its reconstruction efforts [3][5][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Trump promises oil executives 'total safety' if they invest in Venezuelaaljazeera.com
- 2As Trump locks in oil deal, Venezuelans ask - LA Timeslatimes.com
- 3Fact-checking Trump's speech to the 2026 United Nations General...pbs.org
- 4Trump meets Venezuela's Rodriguez for first time since Maduro's...reuters.com
- 5Ukraine war: Zelenskyy calls for trilateral meeting with Putin, Trumpcnbc.com
- 6Venezuela Signs Oil Agreements With Chevron After US Deal | Bloomberg Businessweekyoutube.com
- 7Can Venezuela Rescue the Oil Market?youtube.com
- 8GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Dealyoutube.com
- 9Ukraine–United States Mineral Resources Agreement - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 10Five Takeaways From Trump's U.N. Speech - WSJwsj.com
- 11As Trump Threatens Iran, Other Leaders Warn of Deep Divisionsnytimes.com
9. What official schedules and pre-meeting briefing documents for the September 2026 UNGA side events are publicly available to track confirmed discussion topics?
| General Debate Dates | 22–26 and 28 September 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Events Scheduled (High-Level Week) | approximately 166 events [2] |
| Bilateral Room Requests | 1,553 requests [2] |
Official schedules and event trackers confirm UNGA side event topics. The official schedule and public event trackers for the September 2026 UNGA side events are available, confirming discussion topics. Key sources include the UN General Assembly 81st-session high-level meetings page, the PGA 81 Meetings and Events calendar, the UN High-Level Week 2026 landing page, and the UN Web TV live schedule [1][3][4][5]. These resources confirm the General Debate dates as September 22–26 and 28, 2026, and list high-level meetings with their respective topics, such as the Right to Development on September 23, Sea-Level Rise on September 24, and Pandemic Prevention/Preparedness/Response on September 25 [1].
Public pre-meeting documents detail some topics, but specific Trump agendas are unconfirmed. Public pre-meeting topic documents are available, including a concept note for the September 23 high-level segment on the 40th anniversary of the Declaration on the Right to Development [6]. The UN Web TV listing for the September 23 International Panel on Inequality event specifies its topic as establishing a science-based International Panel on Inequality [7]. The UN Secretary-General’s September 21 press briefing indicated approximately 166 events are scheduled at Headquarters during high-level week, with 1,553 bilateral-room requests [2]. As of September 23, 2026, research did not identify any official public document providing a confirmed Trump-specific UN bilateral agenda or pre-meeting talking-points memo [2][8][9]. While official State Department public schedules and a Rubio travel notice are relevant for tracking Trump-related non-General-Assembly activity, they do not publicly detail individual UN meetings or their confirmed discussion topics [8][9][10][11]. The recommended monitoring set for confirmed discussion topics related to UNGA side events includes the PGA/GA calendar, High-Level Week page, UN Web TV schedule, Secretary-General press briefings, State Department daily public schedules, White House releases/videos, and official transcripts or recordings after any qualifying event [2][8][9].
Sources (11)
- 1High-level meetings of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly...un.org
- 2Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General | UN Meetings Coverage and Press Releasespress.un.org
- 3Meetings and Events | General Assembly of the United Nationsun.org
- 4General Assembly High-level Week 2026 | United Nationsun.org
- 5Live Schedule | UN Web TV - the United Nationswebtv.un.org
- 6All Permanent Representatives and Permanent Observers to the United Nations New Yorkun.org
- 7Addressing the Global Inequality Crisis - A High-Level Event on an International Panel on Inequality | UN Web TVwebtv.un.org
- 8Public Schedule - September 22, 2026 - United States Department of Statestate.gov
- 9Secretary Rubio’s Travel to the United Nations for the 81st UN General Assembly High-Level Week - United States Department of Statestate.gov
- 10Public Schedule – September 21, 2026 - United States Department of Statestate.gov
- 11Public Schedule – September 20, 2026 - United States Department of Statestate.gov
10. Which scheduled bilateral meeting—with Ukraine's Zelenskyy or Denmark/Greenland's leadership—presents the most direct catalyst for Trump to mention "Greenland" three or more times?
| Primary Catalyst for Greenland Mentions | Bilateral meeting with Denmark and Greenland's leadership [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Denmark-Greenland-U.S. Agreement Date | September 22, 2026 [1][3] |
| Focus of Zelenskyy Meeting | Russia-Ukraine energy truce and diesel exports [2][4] |
A scheduled bilateral meeting with Denmark and Greenland's leadership was the most direct catalyst for former President Trump to mention "Greenland" multiple times. This event took place on September 22, 2026, as a UN-sideline signing of a security agreement among Denmark, Greenland, and the United States [1][3]. The discussion at this meeting directly centered on Greenland, and participants included former President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen [1][2][3].
Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy focused on energy truce, not Greenland discussions. Former President Trump also held a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN on the same day, September 22, 2026. However, this meeting's focus was on a Russia-Ukraine energy truce and diesel exports, rather than Greenland [2][4]. Therefore, the ceremony involving Denmark and Greenland's leadership is identified as the primary catalyst for any specific mentions of Greenland by Trump during that period [1][2][3].
Sources (4)
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
On September 22, 2026, President Trump was scheduled to participate in bilateral meetings with world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly and other UN events, explicitly excluding remarks made during his UN General Assembly address [1][2][3]. Meetings were expected with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez, and leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE) [4][5][6]. Additionally, a Shield of the Americas event, a Greenland security-agreement signing, and a high-level AI event were reported on the UN sidelines [4][5][6].
The most likely bullish prediction-market themes for these non-UNGA meetings revolved around Iran and security [7][4][5][6]. Discussions were expected on the war in Iran, Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia, pressure on Tehran, and broader military/security cooperation with Gulf and European partners [7][4][5][6]. Bilateral talking points likely included Ukraine and Zelenskyy, UK-US relations with Burnham, Japan and the upcoming Xi Jinping visit, Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro's capture/prosecution, cartel policy, and Greenland security [4][5][6]. Trump was expected to emphasize action, sovereignty, military strength, and transactional diplomacy rather than a broad multilateral message [8][4][5][6].
Bullish catalysts for a 'Yes' on a topical market outcome would be an on-camera bilateral meeting or press exchange where Trump explicitly mentions Russia/Ukraine, Iran, nuclear weapons, security, peace, trade, or allied contributions [1][2][3][9]. Conversely, bearish catalysts would involve no public remarks, comments limited to pleasantries, or remarks occurring only in the excluded UNGA address [1][2][3][9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 06, 2026
- Closes: October 06, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 3President Trump Participates in Bilateral Meetings with World Leaders at UN General Assembly | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 4Trump eyes busy week of meetings as UN General Assembly gathersreuters.com
- 5Trump in address to world leaders at the UN defends his decision to start the war against Irantriblive.com
- 6Trump returns to UN at a moment of anxiety about Iran, AI and the future of world body itself - SRN Newssrnnews.com
- 7Trump says US and Iran met after his UN speech - AP Newsapnews.com
- 8Key moments from the first day of UN General Assembly speechescnn.com
- 9President Trump Arrives at United Nations | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 20 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26SEP22-ZELE: YES (Sep 23, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26SEP22-VENE: YES (Sep 23, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26SEP22-TRAD: YES (Sep 23, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26SEP22-TARI: YES (Sep 23, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26SEP22-STOC: YES (Sep 23, 2026)
