Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Matches to go to Penalties
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Matches to go to Penalties markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 11, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterfinals: Matches to go to Penalties | July 19, 2026 | 32.9% vs 30.0% | Report → |
| Round of 32: Matches to go to Penalties | July 11, 2026 | 100.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Round of 16: Matches to go to Penalties | July 16, 2026 | 79.9% vs 78.0% | Report → |
