Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 20 so far
(0 live, 20 closed) — with Octagon's
independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is
updated as new World Cup Stage of Elimination markets list, so it always points at the current market
and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated August 6, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market
read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
