Topic tracker · Sports
World Cup Starters
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 10 so far (0 live, 10 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new World Cup Starters markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 14, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain: France Starters | July 15, 2026 | 87.1% vs 87.0% | Report → |
| France vs Spain: Spain Starters | July 15, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Norway vs England: England Starters | July 12, 2026 | 0.8% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Spain vs Belgium: Belgium Starters | July 11, 2026 | 3.3% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| Argentina vs Egypt: Argentina Starters | July 8, 2026 | 99.2% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Portugal vs Spain: Spain Starters | July 7, 2026 | 98.0% vs 98.0% | Report → |
| Portugal vs Spain: Portugal Starters | July 7, 2026 | 94.1% vs 94.0% | Report → |
| USA vs Belgium: Belgium Starters | July 8, 2026 | 3.5% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| Brazil vs Norway: Brazil Starters | July 6, 2026 | 6.0% vs 6.0% | Report → |
| England vs Congo DR: England Starters | July 2, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
