Short Answer

Bitcoin reaching $74,926.35 within the 15-minute window is considered a toss-up, with the market pricing this outcome at 49.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target $74,926.35 sees heightened derivatives market anticipation before CPI report.
  • Target $74,926.35 reflects significant resistance levels, per CryptoWatchDesk.
  • Target $74,926.35 faces selling pressure from spot ETF outflows and whale movements.

Current Context

Prediction markets show mixed sentiment for Bitcoin's near-term price direction. The specific BTC 15-minute prediction market for November 9, 2026, 5:00–5:15 PM EST, targets $74,926.35 and resolves Yes if the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EST is at least the average before 5:00 PM EST [1][2]. Worm's "Bitcoin Up or Down" market for the same period showed 51% Up / 49% Down odds, based on Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data, closing at 22:15 UTC [3]. Hypredict's BTC 15m market for 5:00 PM UTC (1:00 PM EST) targeted $74,903, with Yes priced at 52¢ and No at 48¢, settling on a 60-second TWAP of BTC-USDC perp mark price [4]. On November 9, Bitcoin traded at approximately $74,322, down 1.85% over 24 hours, closing at $74,614.31 [5][6]. Robinhood's 15-minute markets throughout the day showed targets ranging from $74,722.48 to $75,001.51, with the $74,750 or above range showing a 52% probability [1][2][7][8][9].
Upcoming US economic data and technical levels will shape Bitcoin's trajectory. Bitcoin fell roughly 8% from a Wednesday high of $81,179.60 to a Friday low of $74,790.00 [5][10]. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.28 billion in net outflows the prior week [10]. The US October CPI report is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 AM ET, with economists expecting annual inflation to rise to 3.9% from 3.7% [5][11][7]. CME FedWatch data indicated an 80.5% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on December 9, up from 70.7% a week prior [5][11][7]. Analyst Blockhead projected that a "Soft core" CPI (0.1%–0.2%) could lead Bitcoin to $78,900, while a "Hot core" (0.3%+) might test the 200-day average near $73,200 [12]. Friday, November 13, is marked by a $2.5 billion Deribit options expiry, with calls concentrated at $81,000 and $84,000, coinciding with US PPI data release [10].
Longer-term prediction markets show varied probabilities for Bitcoin's year-end price. Polymarket's 2026 Bitcoin market, with ~$82.7 million in trading volume, priced a $70,000 touch at 52% probability, $65,000 at 31%, and $100,000 at 9% [13]. Kalshi's year-end market, with ~$46 million volume, showed the $75,000–$79,999.99 bracket as the leading outcome at 17.6% [13]. CoinGecko's data suggested a 66.5% chance of Bitcoin reaching $77,500 by November 2026, with $75,000 having 100% support probability [14]. Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics stated that a clear break above $75,000 would signal a structural breakout, targeting $79,000 [15]. Analyst Killa saw limited pullback risk, suggesting any correction might briefly test $70,000, while Garrett Jin estimated a 70% chance of $60,000 being the current cycle's bottom [16]. Key support is $74,790, with resistance at $81,179.60 [10].
Sources (16)
  1. 1November 9, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:30–4:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | Wormworm.wtf
  4. 4Bitcoin up or down 15m: price prediction | Hypredicthypredict.app
  5. 53 US Events to Watch as Inflation and AI Earnings Test Bitcoinfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) price history and historical data – Yahoo Financeuk.finance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Prediction Markets, Live Crypto Prices & Paper Trading | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8November 9, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:00–12:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9November 9, 2026: BTC 15 min · 3:00–3:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 10Bitcoin week ahead: US CPI 10 Nov, $2.5B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
  11. 11Bitcoin Event Calendar: Big Dates Ahead | Maketomaketo.com
  12. 12Bitcoin Enters CPI Week Bruised, With Rates, AI Stocks and Washington All Pulling the Same Wayblockhead.co
  13. 13Bitcoin prediction markets put $70,000 ahead of a six-figure return — Predictablepredictable.gg
  14. 14Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 | CoinGeckocoingecko.com
  15. 15Infomarine On-Line Maritime News - Bitcoin tests $75,000 ‘structural breakout’ level with $85,000 upside in viewinfomarine.net
  16. 16Bitcoin Slips After PPI, Analyst Maps $82.5K Resistance and $76K Support - TheCryptoUpdatesthecryptoupdates.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the final average BTC price at expiration is above $74,926.35, and NO if it is at or below this target. The market expires on November 9 at 5:15 PM ET. The official final value is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

No explicit verification of a live BTC 15-minute prediction market contract at exactly $74,926.35 on November 9, 2026, was available [1][2][3][4]. However, similar nearby markets included Hypredict's BTC-above-$74,903 contract, which showed approximately balanced odds [2], and CoinRithm's $74,790.98 Kalshi market, updated November 9, 2026, showing 57.5% Yes odds [3]. Social sentiment was divided, with some traders seeing support around $74,000-$74,700 and targets above $75,000, while others identified bearish scenarios below $74,045 [5][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · $74,863.94 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2Bitcoin up or down 15m: price prediction | Hypredicthypredict.app
  3. 3BTC 15 min · $74,790.98 target - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin / U.S. dollar Forum & Chats (BITSTAMP:BTCUSD) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com
  6. 6$BTC 74k holding for now but this futures open looks ugly. T | KuCoinkucoin.com
  7. 7#crypto #Bitcoin #btc 🎯 Daily BTC Setup for Today! 🔹 EP: | KuCoinkucoin.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score61Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 11% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $74,926.3565
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $74,926.35—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $74,926.3595
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
61Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 43.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.9c slippage (~2% of a 43.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 4.9c slippage (~11% of a 43.5c contract)

Target Price: $74,926.35Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 9, 2026

5. How might derivatives market positioning for Bitcoin shift on November 9 ahead of the November 10 CPI report?

7-day ATM Implied Volatility (BTC)42.6v [1]
Leveraged Crypto Liquidations (24h)$1.12 billion [2]
BTC Perpetual Funding Rate (annualized)10.9% [3]
Bitcoin's derivatives market reflected heightened anticipation and demand for protection on November 9, ahead of the November 10 CPI report [4]. The 7-day ATM implied volatility for BTC rose to 42.6v, indicating a front-end inversion where this event premium primarily covered the upcoming CPI [1]. The 25-delta skew remaining above its high band confirmed that options traders were still paying for protection, with significant put stacking observed at $74,000 and $72,000, and further demand for tail insurance clustering between $58,000 and $64,000 [4].
Leveraged traders leaned bearish, leading to significant liquidations in the market. Perpetual CVD for leveraged traders increased by $59.2 million to -$549.5 million, indicating a leaning towards the sell side [5]. This positioning contributed to approximately $1.12 billion in leveraged crypto positions being liquidated in the 24 hours through November 9, following Bitcoin's fall to approximately $73,500 [2].
Despite these extensive liquidations, the futures market's basis structure did not suggest widespread panic, as open interest remained robust [6]. The perpetual was trading essentially at spot, coupled with positive funding rates, further indicating an absence of broad market distress [6]. As of November 9, the BTC perpetual funding rate was 0.0100% (10.9% annualized) with open interest standing at $7.28 billion [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Crypto Derivatives Briefsnews.laevitas.ch
  2. 2Bitcoin Drops Under $74K Ahead of CPI as Nvidia Sparks Stocks Volatilityct.com
  3. 3Bitcoin week ahead: US CPI 10 Nov, $2.5B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
  4. 4After the Equity Rout, CPI Sets Direction - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  5. 5BTC Market Pulse: Week 46research.glassnode.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Futures Basis Is Doing the Talking This Week (2026)internetwealthresource.com

6. What historical data supports the analyst consensus that a hot October CPI reading would threaten Bitcoin's support at the 200-day MA?

Average Bitcoin decline after hot CPI1.42% (CRTLAB) [1]
Bitcoin decline per 1pp CPI upside surpriseapprox. 5.5% within 1 hour (Block Scholes Research) [2]
Bitcoin decline after August 2022 hot CPI9% in 48 hours [3]
Hot CPI readings consistently correlate with Bitcoin value declines. Historically, hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have consistently correlated with declines in Bitcoin's value. Analysts are projecting that a hot October CPI could push Bitcoin below its 200-day moving average, a critical support level. This sensitivity to CPI surprises is reminiscent of patterns observed in 2022, where significant Bitcoin drops followed unexpectedly high CPI prints, and appears to be re-emerging in the current 2026 cycle [4][1][2][3][5].
Quantitative analysis reveals Bitcoin's immediate negative reaction to CPI surprises. Specific analyses highlight this trend, providing quantitative evidence of Bitcoin's reaction to inflation data. CRTLAB's review of 51 CPI releases since July 2022 indicates that when CPI surpassed forecasts (14 instances), Bitcoin was higher only 14% of the time an hour later, experiencing an average decline of 1.42% [1]. Block Scholes Research found that a 1 percentage-point upside surprise in CPI coincided with an approximate 5.5% decline in Bitcoin within the first hour, explaining 25% of BTC's first-hour return in their six-year sample [2]. Bitgo's research notes that since 2024, hot CPI prints have left Bitcoin 0.6% below its baseline at five minutes, evolving from a 1.4% drop observed in the March 2022-2023 period [6]. Notable historical examples include August 2022, where a hot CPI print (8.5% vs 8.2% expected) led to a 9% Bitcoin fall in 48 hours [3], and June 2022 (CPI 9.1% vs 8.8% expected) which triggered an 8.2% drop [5].
The 200-day moving average is a critical support level. This technical indicator is considered a vital line of defense for Bitcoin's price. In 2022, Bitcoin's rejection from this level in March preceded a crypto bear market with over 50% declines [7]. The 2026 cycle currently shows a similar fractal pattern, with Bitcoin retesting this significant technical level [7]. There are tentative signs that Bitcoin's sensitivity to CPI surprises is resurfacing in 2026, with a 1-hour rolling Beta of -3.2% per percentage point surprise and the R-squared over the 1-hour return period jumping to about 22%, a level last seen in late 2024 [2]. Analysts contend that a hotter October CPI would make a December Fed rate hike almost certain, likely pushing Bitcoin through the 200-day line it has held since August 19, 2026 [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1How Bitcoin Reacts to CPI: Every Release Since 2022 | CRTLABcrtlab.pro
  2. 2Is Bitcoin showing greater sensitivity to US CPI releases again? | Block Scholes Researchblockscholes.com
  3. 3Hot CPI vs Soft Jobs | Which Macro Release Moves Bitcoin More | 2026phemex.com
  4. 4Bitcoin is holding its 200-day line by a thread - and Tuesday's inflation number decides the rest | AInvestainvest.com
  5. 5How CPI Reports Move Bitcoin: A Historical Breakdown | Clometrixclometrix.com
  6. 6Inflation Prints Show Bitcoin is Increasingly Becoming a Macro Tradebitgo.com
  7. 7Bitcoin at Critical Junction: Reclaim 200 SMA or Face 2022-Style Collapse in 2026?coinsprobe.com

7. How do Polymarket's probabilistic 2026 price targets for Bitcoin compare to the implied ranges on Kalshi's year-end market?

Kalshi 2026 Year-End $70K-$85K47% probability [1][2][3]
Polymarket 2026 Hit Above $90K47.5% probability [4][5]
Polymarket 2026 Hit Above $100K17.5% probability [4][5]
Polymarket's "hit" outcomes often suggest higher price probabilities than Kalshi's "close" markets. There is a systematic difference in how these platforms price Bitcoin's future value due to their contract structures. For instance, Polymarket indicated an 11% likelihood of Bitcoin touching $100,000 before year-end, whereas Kalshi priced a year-end closing price above $100,000 at 9% [1]. Similarly, Polymarket suggested a 49% chance of Bitcoin printing at or below $70,000 before year-end, compared to Kalshi's approximately 24% probability for a year-end finish below $70,000 [1]. As of late October 2026, Polymarket's "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" market priced an increase above $90,000 at 47.5% and above $100,000 at 17.5% [4][5]. Earlier, in September 2026, Polymarket bettors assigned a 73% chance for Bitcoin to reach $85,000 and 51% for $90,000 by year-end [6][7][8][9][10]. When focusing on "hit" outcomes, Kalshi's market for Bitcoin trading above $100,000 in 2026 showed about 18%, closely aligning with Polymarket's 17.5% for the same event [4][1].
Kalshi's year-end market data indicates a probable finish below $85K. As of November 3, 2026, Kalshi's "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" market showed a 47% probability of the price finishing between $70,000 and $85,000, with only a 9% chance for $100,000 or higher [1][2][3]. The most recent data from Kalshi's year-end market indicated the $70,000 to $74,999.99 range had a 20.7% probability, while the $75,000 to $79,999.99 range was at 18.4% [11][12][3]. Kalshi also priced a finish below $70,000 at approximately 24% [1]. The market midpoint for Kalshi's year-end Bitcoin price distribution landed within the $75,000 to $80,000 range, which correlated with spot Bitcoin trading around $77,500 on November 3, 2026 [1].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin Year-End Price 2026: Odds by Range With Two Months Left | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
  2. 2Where Does Bitcoin End 2026? Kalshi's Price-Band Odds | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  3. 3Prezzo di Bitcoin a fine 2026 - Confronta le quote su 5 piattaforme | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2026: what Kalshi and Polymarket traders expectpredictdesks.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
  6. 6Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions Grow Cautious as Bettors Eye $81Knews.bitcoin.com
  7. 7Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions Grow Cautious as Bettors Eye $81K - The Crypto Postthecryptopost.io
  8. 8Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions Grow Cautious as Bettors Eye $81K - J B Chaparaljustsomecrypto.com
  9. 9Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions Grow Cautious as Bettors Eye $81Kbitcoinethereumnews.com
  10. 10Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions Grow Cautious as Bettors Eye $81K - Technewsupdatetechnewsupdate.net
  11. 11Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  12. 12Btc Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com

8. Which technical support and resistance levels, according to CryptoWatchDesk and Blockhead, are most critical for Bitcoin's price action on November 9, 2026?

Key Resistance Level$76,000 (Capital Street FX) [1]
Key Support Level$73,170 (200-day average by CryptoWatchDesk) [2]
Prediction Market Target$74,926.35 [3]
Bitcoin faces significant resistance across several key price levels for its price action on November 9, 2026. Immediate resistance points were observed from $75,545 to $76,300.7, with FXStreet noting initial resistance at $75,545 [4], and CryptoWatchDesk identifying a bounce high at $75,622.8 and Friday's high at $76,300.7 [2]. IG UK cited a resistance area between $75,599.14 and $76,232.63 [5]. Capital Street FX indicated Resistance 1 at $76,000, suggesting a target of $78,000 if this level is surpassed [1]. Higher resistance points include the 100-day average near $77,290, according to CryptoWatchDesk [2]. Blockhead's analysis stated that a clean break above the $76,000-$78,000 range was necessary to shift the technical picture from bearish [6], while Ethistry noted that a sustained reclaim of $76,500-$77,100 would be the first confirmation for bullish targets [7].
Critical support levels are established by moving averages and specific price points. The prediction market target for November 9 was $74,926.35 [3], with daily pivots observed at $74,534.81 by ForexR [8] and $75,004.91 by CryptoFutures [9]. Ethistry pinpointed the $75,200-$75,000 range as a critical juncture [7]. Both CryptoWatchDesk and IG UK highlighted the 200-day moving average near $73,170 and at $73,152.25, respectively, as a main risk or key support [2]. Capital Street FX set Support 1 at $73,500 [1]. If the $75,000 level fails, Ethistry identified potential bearish targets including $74,300-$74,500 and $72,900-$73,000 [7]. Further down, FXStreet noted initial support at $70,505 [4], and Ethistry indicated major support at $71,150-$71,400 [7]. Blockhead's analysis identified the 200-week moving average around $60,000 as a major support level [6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin Slips To $74,400 After $1 Billion Of Liquidations, Ethereum And XRP Have Broken Triangle Support, And Fed Speakers Start At 13:40 GMT | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 09 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
  2. 2First Print 9 Nov: bitcoin's $73,444 low, 200-day holdscryptowatchdesk.com
  3. 3BTC 15 min · $74,936.14 target - Risultato: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Why is Bitcoin down but Gold rallying?fxstreet.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Outlook: Selloff May Reach $70,000 Support Zone - IG UKig.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Tops $75,000, Ether Jumps 5% as Rally Continuesblockhead.co
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Bears Pressure 75,000 Support Level (2026)ethistry.com
  8. 8Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast Today: Below the Daily Pivotforexr.com
  9. 9BTC/USDT Futures Analysis — 2026-11-09 16:00 UTC | CryptoFuturescryptofutures.trading

9. What do on-chain metrics from early November 2026 indicate about selling pressure from spot ETF outflows and whale movements?

Weekly Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Outflows$1,281.7 million (November 2-6, 2026) [1][2][3]
Bitcoin Price Range$74,084 to $76,171 (November 8-9, 2026) [4][5]
Dormant Whale Bitcoin Accumulation3,009 BTC (~$228 million) (November 6, 2026) [6]
On-chain metrics from early November 2026 indicate significant selling pressure. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded substantial net outflows totaling $1,281.7 million between November 2-6, 2026, marking the heaviest weekly withdrawal since late June [1][2][3]. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accounted for a dominant portion of this total, with $1,210 million in outflows, representing 94.4% of the aggregate [7]. These outflows, observed following a major Binance hack and US midterm elections, suggest that traditional finance investors are opting to withdraw capital rather than "buy the dip," thereby removing a consistent source of spot demand as Bitcoin's price experiences downward movement [2][4][8].
Whale accumulation varied amid broader short-term holder selling pressure. Despite the widespread selling, one dormant Bitcoin whale re-engaged, accumulating 3,009 BTC (approximately $228 million) on November 6, 2026, after more than a year of inactivity [6]. However, this individual activity contrasts with overall large holder accumulation, which amounted to only 16,010 BTC over a five-day period in October, significantly less than the 60,000 BTC accumulated into the $80,000-$86,000 price zone since late August 2026 [9]. Short-term holders are nearing their break-even point, with their net unrealized profit-to-loss ratio declining to 1.1% from 3.4%, which indicates fear-driven selling and a prevalence of loss realization across the market [4]. Bitcoin's price on November 8-9, 2026, fluctuated between $74,084 and $76,171, closing at $74,765 on November 9 [4][5]. The market's Fear/Greed gauge remains neutral at 50, and Bitcoin dominance near 60% suggests investors are prioritizing the largest digital asset rather than rotating into an alternative rally [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post $1.28B Weekly Outflow, Largest Since June | OrangeX.comorangex.com
  2. 2Spot Bitcoin ETFs see largest weekly outflows since Junedextape.com
  3. 3Spot ETFs: Weekly Outflows of $1.28B for BTC, $365.28M for ETHin-crypto.app
  4. 4Glassnode: Bitcoin Slides to $75K as ETF Outflows Deepenbitbo.io
  5. 5Bitcoin (BTC) Price History and Historical Datacoincheckup.com
  6. 6Dormant Bitcoin Whale Returns as Crypto ETF Outflows Deependropmintdaily.com
  7. 7Bitcoin ETFs lose over $1 billion as BlackRock dominatescryptoslate.com
  8. 8Bitcoin ETFs See $430 Million Of Outflows As U.S. Market Plungesfinance.yahoo.com
  9. 9Whales bought 60,000 BTC while ETFs bled - the two-sided tape at $80,000 | AInvestainvest.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The BTC 15-minute prediction market for November 9, 2026, 5:00–5:15 PM EST, targets $74,926.35, resolving on Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data, with current odds at approximately 51% Up and 49% Down on Worm and Polymarket [1][2]. Bitcoin's live price on November 9, 2026, is approximately $74,807–$75,021 [2][3][4][5]. Kalshi's 5 PM EST market shows a 60% probability for Bitcoin at or above $74,500, but only a 15% probability for $75,000 or above [2][3][4][5]. Bitcoin closed November 8, 2026, at $74,754.08, representing a 1.32% daily decline and a -3.46% decrease for November [6][7][8]. Technical support levels include the 200-day SMA between $70,000–$74,000, while resistance is found at the 50-day SMA near $82,000 and the 365-day MA at $81,700 [6][7][8]. On-chain data indicates 539,000 BTC sold by long-term holders between $77,100 and $80,200, forming the heaviest nearby supply wall [8][9]. Below $70,000, the next significant on-chain support is a cluster between $62,000 and $65,000, where approximately 476,000 BTC were accumulated this year [8][9].
The US October CPI report is due on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET [10]. Economists expect annual inflation to climb to 3.9% from 3.7% in September [10]. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push BTC toward the $70,000 psychological support zone, while a softer print could support a rebound toward the 50-day SMA near $82,000 [6][10]. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 80.5% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on December 9, 2026, an increase from 70.7% a week prior [10]. The Fed raised rates in September 2026 for the first time in three years and maintained its range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, 2026 [6][10]. Additionally, November 9, 2026, includes the Elysium mainnet launch, the Enjin Relaychain Fort Canning upgrade, and the Aave DAO vote to add native BTC as collateral on Aave V4, with voting ending today [11][12]. Earnings are also anticipated from MARA Holdings, Exodus Movement, Sharplink, Bitgo, and HIVE Digital Technologies [11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 09, 2026
  • Expiration: November 16, 2026
  • Closes: November 09, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET | Wormworm.wtf
  2. 2Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5: Oddspolymarketanalytics.com
  3. 3BTC price on Nov 9, 2026 at 5pm EST?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  4. 4Buy Bitcoin - BTC Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Predictions & Odds - OG.comog.com
  6. 63 Assets to Watch (Nov 9-13): Gold, Bitcoin, and Applied Materials (AMAT)bybit.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  8. 8Bitcoin’s 24% Rally Hit a Wall: CryptoQuant Reveals What Comes Next - Ranzware – Innovation, Reviews & Trendsranzware.com
  9. 9Bitcoin’s 24% Rally Hit a Wall: CryptoQuant Reveals What Comes Nextcryptonews.net
  10. 103 US Events to Watch as Inflation and AI Earnings Test Bitcoinfinance.yahoo.com
  11. 11U.S. inflation, corporate earnings: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  12. 12Crypto Market Outlook This Week (Nov. 9–15): CPI, PPI and Solana Breakpoint in Focus | Gate Bloggate.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV091700-00: YES (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV091645-45: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV091630-30: YES (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV091615-15: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV091600-00: YES (Nov 09, 2026)