Short Answer

Bitcoin is not expected to reach the $75,662.60 target price in the 15-minute interval from 6:15 PM EST to 6:30 PM EST on November 7 (32.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Since last update (about an hour ago): Edge for $75,662.60 compressed +19.1pp to 0.0pp, primarily due to market-led adjustments.
  • Market probability for $75,662.60 fell -14.0pp to 32.0%.
  • Model probability for $75,662.60 increased +5.1pp, now aligning at 32.0%.
  • Bitcoin's $75,662.60 target is influenced by significant US spot ETF outflows.
  • December Fed rate hike odds and recent Binance hack influence the $75,662.60 target.

Current Context

Bitcoin trades near $76,000 amidst mixed short-term market signals. Bitcoin registered $76,012 on Binance at 6:06 AM ET on November 7, 2026, a 0.46% increase over 24 hours, with its market capitalization at $1.52 trillion [1][2]. The weekly performance indicates a 3.1% decline, moving from a Monday open of $78,239.2 to a Friday low of $74,790, with the week's high at $81,179.6 [3]. The specific 15-minute prediction market for November 7, 2026, 6:15–6:30 PM EST targets $75,662.60, slightly below the current $75,700–$76,100 trading range. This implies market expectations for a flat resolution or a minor dip within that window [4][5][1]. Robinhood's prediction market shows a 99% probability for Bitcoin to be at or above $75,200, $75,300, and $75,400 by 6 PM EST on November 7 [4].
Broader prediction markets suggest limited upside for Bitcoin in November. Polymarket's 'What price will Bitcoin hit in November?' market, with $3.9 million in volume and concluding on December 1, 2026, assigns a 90% probability to Bitcoin touching $75,000 and 81% for $77,500 [6]. The probability for $80,000 stands at 56%, while a $90,000 price point carries only a 9% probability [6]. The next Deribit BTC options expiry is scheduled for November 8, 2026, at 08:00 UTC, with $199.3 million in total open interest [7]. The November 27 monthly expiry holds $5.46 billion in open interest, and the largest USD open-interest expiry is December 25, 2026, at $10.71 billion [7].
ETF outflows and upcoming regulatory changes influence Bitcoin's trajectory. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows in November 2026 through Friday, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority of these withdrawals [5][2]. November 4 was the only day with positive inflows, totaling $74.6 million [5][2]. Russia's new retail crypto trading rules will activate on November 17, 2026, permitting non-qualified investors to purchase up to 300,000 roubles, approximately $3,700, of Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT annually through regulated domestic exchanges [2]. The CFTC issued Staff Letter 26-30 on November 5, 2026, providing no-action relief that allows derivatives clearing organizations to use trust companies for daily settlement, treating them as settlement banks [8]. Tom Lee maintains a $250,000 Bitcoin target by year-end 2026, which would require a 212.5% increase from an $80,000 base with fewer than two months remaining. His forecasting track record shows two of six major predictions were met early, while four were missed [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin Breaks Above $76,000 in Nov. 7 Binance Spot Reading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Holds $76K as ETFs Shed $411.9M. What Do Buyers Knowcryptotimes.io
  3. 3First Print 7 Nov: bitcoin near $75,800, week down 3%cryptowatchdesk.com
  4. 4Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin rebounds to $76,000, but $1.3 billion ETF exodus tests recovery By Investing.cominvesting.com
  6. 6What price will Bitcoin hit in November?polymarket.com
  7. 7Deribit Options Expiries: BTC and ETH Calendar | PerpFinderperpfinder.com
  8. 8Crypto news brief: November 7, 2026upanddown.blog
  9. 9Tom Lee Bullish After Trump’s Midterm Defeat as His $250K Bitcoin Year-End Deadline Loomsfinance.yahoo.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market, "BTC 15 min," is currently launching soon, and the specific "To Beat" value for YES or NO resolution is not yet displayed. The market duration is November 7, from 6:15 PM to 6:30 PM EST. Settlement will be determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

On November 7, 2026, Bitcoin traded within a tight range of $75,600–$75,700, with $75,662.60 being one of several 15-minute prediction market targets observed across different platforms [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Sentiment in these short-term markets was mixed, with probabilities for similar targets swinging widely; for instance, Kalshi traders gave BTC a 36% chance of finishing above $75,664, while Public.com showed probabilities ranging from 4% for a $75,639.57 target to 69% for a $75,699.29 target [1][7][8]. TradingView discussions on November 7, 2026, also revealed conflicting bullish and bearish setups for BTCUSD 15-minute movements around this price range [9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · $75,639.57 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  2. 2November 7, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:30–11:45 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3November 7, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:00–11:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4November 7, 2026: BTC 15 min · 11:15–11:30 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5November 7, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Edge 15-Min — Live Fair Value for Kalshi KXBTC15M Marketspredictionmarketspicks.com
  8. 8BTC 15 min · $75,699.29 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9BTCUSD 15m — Sell-Side Sweep and Range Reclaim for TICKMILL:BTCUSD by ULYSSESTRADER — TradingViewtradingview.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Perpetual futures, quoted, settled & margined in US Dollar Forum & Chats (DELTAIN:BTCUSD.P) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score28Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
77Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

One trade was 43% of everything ever traded in “Target Price: $75,662.60” — a $1,217 tape.

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $75,662.60—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $75,662.60—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $75,662.6095
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
28Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~2% of a 32.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.3c slippage (~4% of a 32.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $75,662.60Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 7, 2026

5. What impact might the upcoming November 8 Deribit options expiry have on Bitcoin's price volatility during the November 7, 6:15-6:30 PM EST window?

November 8 Deribit Options Expiry Size$199.3M [1][2][3]
Bitcoin 15-min Realized Volatility0.04% (as of November 7, 2026) [4]
BTC 1-week ATM Implied Volatility Spike5.83 vol points to 40.71% (on November 5, 2026) [5]
The upcoming November 8 Deribit options expiry is unlikely to impact near-term volatility. This expiry is valued at $199.3 million and is scheduled to settle approximately 13.75 hours after the November 7, 6:15-6:30 PM EST prediction market window [1][2][3]. Due to its relatively small size and timing, it is expected to have minimal direct influence on Bitcoin's price volatility during the specified 15-minute period. Historical analysis of 12 Deribit expiries in 2026 further supports that options expiries do not systematically increase volatility [6].
Bitcoin's current short-term volatility remains low despite other option metrics. As of November 7, 2026, short-term Bitcoin price action appears calm, with 15-minute and 5-minute realized volatility reported at 0.04% and 0.02% respectively [4]. While there was a spike in BTC 1-week ATM implied volatility by 5.83 vol points to 40.71% on November 5, 2026, creating a front-end inversion [5], and Bitcoin options for the November 27 expiry show a high Options Cost Score of 99.0 [7], the limited size of the November 8 expiry restricts its direct influence on this specific time. The prediction market target of $75,662.60 falls within Bitcoin's recent trading range, which experienced a 5.55% drop on November 5, 2026 [8].
Prediction markets anticipate continued downward pressure leading into expiry. Robinhood prediction markets indicate an expectation of sustained downward pressure on Bitcoin's price as the November 8 expiry approaches, suggesting probabilities for lower prices on November 8, 2026 [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin Options: Implied Volatility, Open Interest & Expiriesperpfinder.com
  2. 2Deribit Options Expiries: BTC and ETH Calendar | PerpFinderperpfinder.com
  3. 3Deribit Options Expiry Analysis: November 2026noyacrypto.com
  4. 4Crypto Volatility Tracker — Realized Volatility by Coin | CoinClasscoinclass.com
  5. 5BTC Options Volatility Report | BTC 1W ATM volatility leads repricing | 5 Nov 2026 | Derivasysderivasys.com
  6. 6Bitcoin options expiry: what happens to price on Deribitcoinlab.info
  7. 7Bitcoin Options Charge 36.8% Volatility for 21.4% Delivered; Realized Caught Up 1 in 16 Times | C...cryptoquant.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
  9. 9Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

6. What does the sustained net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in November 2026, including from BlackRock's IBIT, signal about institutional selling pressure?

Weekly Net Outflows (Nov 2-6, 2026)$1.28 billion [1][2]
IBIT's Share of Outflows$1.21 billion (94%) [2][3]
Bitcoin Price (Nov 6, 2026)$75,746.53 [4]
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, primarily from BlackRock's IBIT. From November 2-6, 2026, these ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.28 billion, marking their worst weekly performance since late June and pushing year-to-date figures to approximately $914.1 million in net outflows for 2026 [1][2]. BlackRock's IBIT was overwhelmingly responsible for this trend, accounting for $1.21 billion, or 94%, of the weekly outflow, totaling $1.44 billion across six consecutive sessions since October 30 [2][3].
External factors and concentrated selling drove the recent Bitcoin ETF outflows. These outflows were largely triggered by the record $6.36 billion Binance hack, alongside general equity market weakness and caution surrounding the November 3 U.S. midterm elections [5][6]. While Fidelity's FBTC recorded net inflows on November 6, analysts observed that such a large proportion of daily outflows from a single fund typically suggests a few large holders reducing their positions rather than a broad institutional sell-off [7][3][2]. Despite the concentrated nature of these outflows, institutional and spot buying momentum for Bitcoin visibly faded, as reflected in a negative Coinbase Premium and a softer Crypto Fear & Greed Index [7][2][8].
Bitcoin's price sharply declined amidst the sustained ETF outflows. Bitcoin's price reacted sharply, falling more than 5% on November 5 to approximately $75,000, which represented its lowest point in nearly three months [6][9][4]. The cryptocurrency closed on November 6 at $75,746.53, marking a 13.50% decrease for 2026 from the year's opening price [6][9][4].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETFs flip negative for 2026 after $1.28 billion outflow week, worst since Junetheblock.co
  2. 2Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit $1.28B This Week; IBIT Loses $1.21Bbasecamp.markets
  3. 3BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Lost $1.21B While Rivals Held Steadycoindoo.com
  4. 4[BTC] Bitcoin 2026 USD price history - Best Crypto Checkerbestcryptochecker.com
  5. 5Is BlackRock Selling Bitcoin? What's Really Behind the $405 Million IBIT Outflowbeincrypto.com
  6. 6Bitcoin ETFs See $430 Million Of Outflows As U.S. Market Plungesfinance.yahoo.com
  7. 7Bitcoin ETFs Lose $411.9M on Friday as BlackRock Drives the Selling — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  8. 8Bitcoin ETFs saw $643M outflows Friday; 2026 barely greencoindesk.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com

7. How do Bitcoin price forecasts from Polymarket's monthly market compare with the shorter-term predictions on Robinhood for the evening of November 7, 2026?

Polymarket Nov 2026 forecast probability below $75,00088-90% (as of Nov 7, 2026) [1]
Robinhood Nov 7, 2026 6pm EST price probability in $75,600-$75,699.99 range55% [2]
Polymarket total volume for Nov 2026 BTC market$3.94 million (as of Nov 7, 2026) [1]
Bitcoin price forecasts diverge significantly between monthly and short-term predictions. For the evening of November 7, 2026, Robinhood's shorter-term predictions suggest an expectation of relative stability within the $75,600-$75,700 range, whereas Polymarket's monthly forecast for November 2026 indicates a modest downside bias. As of November 7, 2026, Bitcoin's current price is approximately $75,671-$75,682, with an overall market sentiment described as bearish [3][4][5][6][2][7].
Polymarket's long-term forecast for November 2026 exhibits notable volatility indicators. The market, which resolves on November 30, 2026, shows an 88-90% probability that the price will be below $75,000 as of November 7, 2026. Concurrently, there is an 80-83% probability for the price to be above $77,500. Further data indicates a 61-62% probability for the price to be below $72,500 and a 56-57% probability for it to be above $80,000 [1]. This market has accumulated a total volume of $3.94 million and $1.67 million in liquidity [1].
Robinhood's short-term predictions show a tighter expected price range. Specifically, its 'BTC price on Nov 7, 2026 at 6pm EST' market assigns a 55% probability for the price to fall within the $75,600-$75,699.99 range [2]. Other probabilities include a 74% chance for the price to be $75,600 or above, a 37% chance for $75,700 or above, and a 10% chance for $75,800 or above [2]. A key distinction between the platforms lies in their resolution methodologies: Polymarket utilizes Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs/lows [3], whereas Robinhood's 15-minute markets employ CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) with 60-second averages [2][6]. Furthermore, Robinhood's markets operate on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange, distinguishing it from Polymarket's decentralized structure [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1What price will Bitcoin hit in November?polymarket.com
  2. 2BTC price on Nov 7, 2026 at 6pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3What price will Bitcoin hit in November Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
  4. 4Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  5. 5Buy Bitcoin - BTC Price Today, Live Charts and Newsrobinhood.com
  6. 6November 7, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
  8. 8Best Apps for Trading on Crypto 15 Min Prediction Markets 2026thegruelingtruth.com
  9. 9Crypto 15 Minute Markets Overview & Predictions for Todaythelines.com

8. What level-2 order book data is available from major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase to track buy/sell walls around the $75,662.60 level?

Binance Spot API depthUp to 5000 levels per side [1][2]
Coinbase Exchange API depthUp to 500 levels [3][4][5][6]
Binance WebSocket update frequency100ms [7][8][9]
Major exchanges provide extensive level-2 order book data access for market analysis. Binance offers deep order book data through its Spot REST API, supporting up to 5000 levels per side [1][2], and its USD-M Futures REST API provides up to 1000 levels per side [2][10]. Real-time updates for Binance are delivered via a WebSocket stream at a 100ms frequency, necessitating an initial snapshot from the REST API to maintain full depth [7][8][9]. Similarly, Coinbase’s Exchange REST API returns a full aggregated order book with up to 500 levels for level 2 data queries [3][4][5][6]. Its WebSocket `level2` channel also delivers real-time updates through snapshots and incremental `l2update` messages [11][12][13].
Comprehensive order book data is crucial for tracking market liquidity. Various services utilize this information to analyze market dynamics and assess buy/sell walls. For example, ByKaranteli.com aggregates spot order book data from multiple venues, including Binance and Coinbase, to display bid/ask walls in 0.1% price buckets [14]. The Blockmetric API detects and tracks order book liquidity and walls by venue, side, and USD size [15], while the ChainVector API tracks large resting limit orders from order-book snapshots to provide metrics such as notional value and persistence [16]. Other platforms, including Glassnode and Loris Tools API, also offer spot order book metrics and tools for slippage and impact analysis using data from major exchanges [17][18].
Maintaining accurate local order books requires specific methodological steps. This precise process involves buffering events, retrieving depth snapshots, dropping outdated events, and validating sequence numbers [9][8]. Cryptofeed, for instance, uses a default 5000-level snapshot for Binance Spot and recommends periodic refreshes to ensure data integrity [19][20]. Moreover, CoinDesk Data constructs order book snapshots once per minute per exchange, capturing maximum depth on both sides to synthesize complete order book information [21].
Sources (21)
  1. 1lib/binance_spot_rest/endpoints/market_data/depth/query.exgithub.com
  2. 2maxt 0.3.3 - Docs.rsdocs.rs
  3. 3https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/exchange-api/rest-api/products/get-product-bookdocs.cdp.coinbase.com
  4. 4public_order_book: GET current public order book data in cstjohn810/cryptoapi: API Wrapper for Multiple Cryptocurrency Exchangesrdrr.io
  5. 5GDAX – orderbook data API level1,2,3 | datafireballdatafireball.com
  6. 6Node.js function fetchOrderBook for new Coinbase exchangegithub.com
  7. 7Order Books | Tardis.dev Documentationdocs.tardis.dev
  8. 8how to register to the Diff. Depth Streamgithub.com
  9. 9l2.rs - sourcedocs.rs
  10. 10BinanceLinearRestClient in crypto_rest_client - Rustdocs.rs
  11. 11https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/advanced-trade-api/websocket/level2docs.cdp.coinbase.com
  12. 12Maintaining a real-time order book using the Coinbase Prime APIcoinbase.com
  13. 13Tyler Tries Real-Time Data – Tyler Hillerytylerhillery.com
  14. 14Spot Order Book Heatmap: Bid and Ask Walls Across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX | ByKarantelibykaranteli.com
  15. 15Order book liquidity and walls: GET /orderbook/{coin} API · Blockmetricblockmetric.io
  16. 16Order Book — API Documentation · ChainVectorchainvector.com
  17. 17Orderbook Data Live on Glassnoderesearch.glassnode.com
  18. 18Order Book Depth - Loris Tools API | Loris Toolsloris.tools
  19. 19incorrect OrderBook for binance · Issue #604 · bmoscon/cryptofeedgithub.com
  20. 20cryptofeed/cryptofeed/exchanges/binance.py at master · bmoscon/cryptofeed · GitHubgithub.com
  21. 21Digital Asset Order Book Data | Market Depth & Slippage Data | CoinDesk Datadata.coindesk.com

9. Based on Bitcoin's weekly trading range for November 3-7, where do key technical support and resistance levels lie relative to the $75,662.60 target?

Daily Pivot Point (Nov 7, 2026)$75,588.35 [1]
Nearest Resistance (Previous Day High)$76,300.19 [1]
14-day RSI37.9-38.19 [1][2]
Bitcoin faces immediate technical support levels indicating potential downside pressure. The nearest technical support for November 7, 2026, is identified at the daily pivot point of $75,588.35 [1]. A critical support level is present at $75,775; a sustained break below this point could prompt a deeper correction towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $73,197.56 [2]. Further key support levels include the 50-week SMA at $75,553 [3], the primary weekly support at $75,540.62 [4], and immediate H4 support within the range of $75,500-$76,000 [5]. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently ranging between 37.9 and 38.19, suggests prevailing bearish momentum and indicates potential for further price declines [1][2].
Key resistance levels challenge Bitcoin's potential upward movement. On the resistance side, the nearest levels are the previous day's high of $76,300.19, followed by the R1 pivot at $76,444.39, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,494 [1][3]. The weekly forecast for October 31 to November 7, 2026, sets primary resistance at $79,363.12 [4]. Bitcoin's trading range for November 3-7, 2026, included a high of $81,179.60 recorded on November 4 [6][7]. With the price approximately $75,681.74 on November 7, Bitcoin is positioned neutrally between its weekly primary support and resistance levels [6][7][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin Technical Analysis Today: BTC Consolidates Below 76,000forexr.com
  2. 2Bitcoin's $75,775 Support Under Pressure: Can Bulls Reverse the Slide?interactivecrypto.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Faces Fifth Straight Weekly Decline | Markets Capitalmarkets.capital
  4. 4BTC/USD Forecast 31 Oct–7 Nov 2026: Neutral | Updated 7 Nov 2026fxglory.com
  5. 5Bitcoin prepares for another rejection below major supply 07/11 for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Adrian_NovaTrader — TradingViewtradingview.com
  6. 6Bitcoin (BTC) Price History & Download Bitcoin Historical Data in CSV For Free | Bitgetbitget.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.28 billion from Monday to Friday of the week preceding November 7, 2026, with year-to-date 2026 net flows totaling minus $914 million [1]. The October 29, 2026 Binance hack, involving the theft of approximately $6.3 billion in crypto, prompted billions in customer withdrawals and eroded trust across the crypto market [1]. FedWatch data indicates 76.8% odds for a December 2026 Fed rate hike to 4.00%–4.25% [1][2]. Upcoming catalysts that could alter this probability include the October CPI print on November 10 and Fed minutes on November 18 [1][2]. Additionally, MSCI's November 11 index review is a critical event: if Strategy (MSTR) and other Bitcoin treasury firms are removed from MSCI indexes, effective November 30, index funds would be forced to sell shares, thereby diminishing Strategy's ability to purchase new Bitcoin and generating further selling pressure [1][3].
In the derivatives market, the Deribit November 27 options expiry has approximately $5.4 billion in open interest, with max pain set at $80,000 [1]. The year-end December 25 expiry features roughly $10.6 billion in open interest and a max pain point at $75,000, aligning with Bitcoin's current trading range and suggesting active hedging [1]. Coinpred's AI forecast (Kronos model), generated November 7, 2026, projects a November 7 daily close of $76,347.58, with a high of $77,430.78 and a low of $75,137.55, indicating a modestly bullish intraday bias with notable downside risk to the $75,100 area [4]. Cryptoticker.io outlines three year-end 2026 Bitcoin scenarios: a bearish move to $70,000 (-7.5%) triggered by high CPI, MSCI action against Strategy, and sustained ETF outflows; a recovery to $80,000–$90,000 (+5.7% to +18.9%) on soft inflation and reversed ETF outflows; or a rally to $100,000 (+32.1%) requiring a Fed skip on the rate hike, billions in ETF inflows, and MSCI retaining Strategy [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 07, 2026
  • Expiration: November 14, 2026
  • Closes: November 07, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1Will Bitcoin Go Back Up? 3 Scenarios Into Year-End 2026cryptoticker.io
  2. 2Bitcoin Week Ahead: Midterms, Jobs Report, Apple & AMD, Fed Hike Odds | Bitcoin Masterybitcoin-mastery.com
  3. 3Bitcoin and the US Midterms: A Trader's Checklist for Nov. 3-11weex.com
  4. 4BTC 15 Minute Prediction: AI Signals and Confidence | Coinpredcoinpred.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV071815-15: YES (Nov 07, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV071800-00: NO (Nov 07, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV071745-45: YES (Nov 07, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV071730-30: NO (Nov 07, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV071715-15: NO (Nov 07, 2026)